Special thanks go to Bill Reinhard of the NY Daily News for the awesome featured image artwork!
Check out his work here and here.
A lot of places put out Under-The-Radar Targets or some nomenclature like it. But let’s call it what it really is… Hot Takes. These are my hot takes on some guys you might not be thinking about as we inch toward the 2023 Fantasy Baseball season. Whether they be targets for your late draft(s) or guys you can grab in exchange for the one bonehead pick you made, use the latest news and info from Spring Training as you will. These hitting targets are prime for either a breakout or a bounceback.
ICYMI – Under-The-Radar Pitching Targets 👀
Seiya Suzuki – Chicago Cubs, OF, RHH (Current NFBC ADP: 104.31)
The international signee had a fair amount of hype heading into the 2022 season. After signing a five-year, $85 million contract, Suzuki’s MLB career started with a bang, posting a .934 OPS in April. His knowledge of the strike zone and selective approach bolstered this mark and led to four home runs (9 XBH), 14 RBI and a 0.61 BB/K ratio. Chicago looked wise when Suzuki was named National League Rookie of the Month. His chase and barrel rates (both just short of 20%) were among the top five in baseball.
However, over the next few months, things would fall off the cliff. Scouting reports indicated a weakness in laying off breaking pitches down in the zone and fastballs up in the zone, and pitchers adjusted. Suzuki could not follow suit. His chase rate ballooned to 30.2%, while his barrel rate sank to 6.3% as he wasn’t maintaining a near-20% mark. As a result, his slash line from 5/1 to 8/20 was a horrid .229/.283/.362. Furthermore, he was clearly having trouble adjusting to life in the states, and a left finger injury kept him out for 35 games, along with adding to his troubles at the plate.
August 20 is the cut-off point for his slumping slash due to a three-hit performance against the Brewers on Aug. 21. This began a resurgence for Suzuki, which closely resembled April 2022. He went on to slash .315/.392/.514 over the season’s final seven weeks (.906 OPS). The chase rate leveled out to 22.3%. The resultant 15.1% barrel rate is an elite mark and illustrates his power potential. For example, last season, 84.9% of home runs were barrels. The key stat is his 155 wRC+ down the stretch, which ranked eighth in the NL (min. 120 plate appearances).
Overall, a roller-coaster rookie season resulted in a 2.0 WAR and a 116 wRC+ – more than adequate for our fantasy purposes. Suzuki now knows what to expect out of life in the Big Leagues. He’s worked on adjustments, which add to his selective approach and ability to barrel up the baseball regularly. Ray loves how he uses the whole field and lists him as a target. I believe we will see the Suzuki of April 2022 all season long.
UPDATE: After publication, Chicago reveals Suzuki has a “moderate” left oblique strain from Spring Training work. While no timetable nor the exact severity of the injury (i.e. Grade 1, Grade 2) has been given, there is a high probability he will miss Opening Day. If we assume a similar 6-8 week projection as other moderate oblique strains for Suzuki’s return, that has him back ready for a rehab assignment around mid-April and hopefully back in a Cubs uniform by the beginning of May. This lowers his ADP price, which works well, but also lowers his overall season outlook (and status as head honcho on this list) since these injuries are problematic.
Andrew Vaughn – Chicago White Sox, 1B/OF, RHH (Current NFBC ADP: 137.84)
Vaughn, who turns 25 years old on 4/3, has had two quality seasons in the majors. While unspectacular, the 17 home runs and 76 RBI (111 OPS+) did lead the Pale Hose last year. But let us not forget Vaughn had only accumulated 254 Minor League plate appearances before leaping to the Majors in 2021. So he is still wet behind the ears. However, the No. 3 overall pick of the 2019 MLB Draft illustrated strong underlying statistics in 2022.
Exit Velocity (EV, MPH) | Hard-Hit Rate (HH, %) | Strikeout Rate (K, %) | Swing-and-Miss Rate (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Vaughn 2022 | 90.8 | 48.6 | 17.3 | 21.0 |
MLB Percentile | 82nd | 90th | 75th | 74th |
The key stat for Vaughn in 2022 was his hard-hit + sweet-spot contact per plate appearance (HH+SS%): 17.3%! We all know balls that are hit 95+ mph qualify as hard-hit. To qualify for the launch-angle sweet spot, the batter needs to make contact at an angle of 8-32 degrees. He did both 17.3% of the time, the fifth-best mark in baseball (min. 500 pitches). If you don’t wanna click the link, I’ll save ya some time. Vaughn trailed only Yordan Álvarez, Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager and Mookie Betts. Vaughn had a higher HH+SS% than Aaron Judge and Manny Machado! To sum up, Vaughn smacks the baseball, creates line drives and fly balls, makes consistent contact, and doesn’t strike out often. Now ask yourself, is this a good combo for our hitting targets, especially at a 137.84 ADP? The answer is clear.
One last point of emphasis. José Abreu is now in Houston. This opens up first base for Chicago, Vaughn’s natural position. As an outfielder, he sucks. Ok, maybe that’s a tad harsh; allow me to try that again. As an outfielder, he sucks stinks. Vaughn has a career -23 Outs Above Average (OAA) and was in the one percentile for OAA and Outfielder Jump. One would think a move to first only helps his comfort level at the plate. Additionally, without the physical strains of playing outfield, his body will hold up better to avoid the slow finishes he’s had in each of his big league seasons. Vaughn can and will explode in 2023. Don’t be left out of the party! #FOMO
Jonathan India – Cincinnati Reds, 2B, RHH (Current NFBC ADP: 179.31)
One of my biggest surprises and disappointments last year was Jonathan India. Coming off a nearly unanimous Rookie of the Year campaign in 2021, his combo of power, speed and a great batting eye gave the look of a can’t-miss fantasy selection. In 2021, the former fifth overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft batted .269 with an .835 OPS, 21 homers and 69 RBI in 150 games (631 PA), including double-digit steals. Furthermore, he boasted a .190 ISO, .363 wOBA and a 120 wRC+. The BB/K ratio was a tidy 0.50, including an 11.3% BB rate and 22.3% K rate. His role was firmly established with the Reds as their leadoff hitter.
However, looks can be deceiving. In 2022, India’s BA dropped 20 points (.249), his OBP dropped 49 (.376 to .327), and his slugging dropped 81 (from .459 to .378). Ten homers, 48 RBI and three steals pale in comparison. The ISO was .130. The wOBA was .314, and his 95 wRC+ fell below the league average. Although, he didn’t strike out more (21.8%). Yet, he walked far less (7.2% BB rate, 0.33 BB/K). All this occurred in 103 games (431 PA), as he was limited by injury. A problematic hammy was an issue in the first half of the season, resulting in two injured list trips and only 48 games played.
In the second half, at the Field of Dreams Game in Iowa, India sustained a bone bruise on his left shin, requiring a helicopter ride to a local hospital to rule out compartment syndrome. If you watched the game, it was bad! However, he was only out for three games and began a 16-game hitting streak upon return. Despite that streak, he never really got going. The physical ailments were apparent, but “under the radar,” he was putting too much pressure on himself after winning RoY.
The detractors came out, tweeting he had already hit his ceiling in 2021. “Thank you for this,” India retorted. He has put in the work this offseason with a sprint coach to correct his running form and get his body in shape (reports are his sprint speed is 3 mph faster!). Hey, the new rules may even help India steal more bags. But more importantly, he is in a good place mentally.
“My dad always preached that confidence is the biggest thing in life. I lost a little bit last year with the injury and not being on the field with my guys. We were losing. It was hard for me to watch. I was getting a little bit in my head with stuff. ‘Did I not prepare well enough? Am I letting my guys down?’ I lost some of that fire in me. Coming back, I tried to do too much because we were not good. The reality was we just weren’t good. I think showing the way I am this year, being the confident guy I usually am, is going to take a lot of us the right way this year. It’s going to be a positive feeling the whole year. I want everyone to have that, not just me…”
“I’m back to the player I am — a hard grinder who plays hard no matter what. My body wasn’t allowing me to do that last year. The [hamstring] injury early in the year affected me the whole year. No excuses, but if I take care of my body this season, I’ll be who I am.”
~India quote provided by Mark Sheldon | Under-The-Radar Hitting Targets
Reds beat reporter for MLB.comAnybody else ready to run through a brick wall? I’m fully expecting India to be consistent again in 2023.
Side Note: I also like Wil Myers (1B/OF, RHH; 237.94 ADP) to bounce back now that he’s with the Reds and regularly hitting in Great American Ball Park. In the “Small Park,” he has a career slash line of .265/.329/.471 with a .206 ISO, 4 HR and 6 XBH in 68 AB. The ADP is high for my liking, but if you can snag him later in a deep-league draft or off waivers, I’m game!
Luis Arráez – Miami Marlins, 2B/1B, LHH (Current NFBC ADP: 201.62)
Just like the Mets’ Jeff McNeil (2B/OF LHH, Current NFBC ADP: 185.44), we have another batting champion who is getting zero respect in fantasy. Arráez hit .316 in a breakout season with Minnesota last year, when he was selected as an All-Star for the first time in his career. He rarely struck out (7.1%), got on base (.375 OBP, .350 wOBA) and posted an excellent 131 wRC+. Furthermore, his .331 BABIP was in line with career marks and merely .008 higher than in 2021. Repeatability should not be an issue, albeit he’s now facing NL pitching. However, with a balanced schedule, this weighs slightly less. Could he become only the second player to win the batting title in each league (D.J. LeMahieu: Rockies, 2016, Yankees, 2020) and the first to do so in each league consecutively? It’s possible!
Arráez has elite bat-to-ball skills with a career 93.3% zone contact rate / 85.0% chase contact rate along with an ultra-low 8.6% Whiff rate. While his swing reminds me of a young Tony Gwynn, Arráez does have some extreme splits, however – .329/.386/.438 in 479 PA vs. RHP, .265/.331/.354 in 124 PA vs. LHP (2022). Still, .265 is not a terrible average, nor is a .331 OBP, and Minnesota likes to avoid LvL matchups. Will Miami employ the same strategy? It’s possible, as Jesús Sánchez and Joey Wendle were used sparingly versus fellow lefties. However, that was under Don Mattingly’s regime, and Skip Schumaker is now in charge. The Skipper (sorry, I had to) has Arráez penciled in to hit leadoff every day, where he’ll see more quality pitches/PA and look to match or exceed the 88 runs he scored a year ago.
In the same draft range, when it comes to aiding your team’s batting average, I also like Jeff McNeil and the Red Sox’s international signee Masataka Yoshida (OF LHH, Current NFBC ADP: 202.85). Squirrel (aka McNeil) likes to find his nut on the first pitch and pounce. To give you an idea, the league average for first-pitch swing percentage is 31%. In the last three seasons, McNeil’s percentages are 53.1% (2020), 45.1% (2021) and 40.6% (2022), an average of 46.3%. He loves squaring up that first-pitch fastball and hitting line drives around the park (30.0 LD%, 2022 – 26.3%, career).
Despite not working deep counts, McNeil’s OBP is fantastic (.382, 2022 – .370, career), and his wOBA is sparkling (.365, 2022 – .357, career). If not for the down and injury-plagued year of 2021, the career numbers would be even better! Both his barrel percentage and hard-hit rates don’t move the needle, but the dude makes contact any way he can and is successful. He creates a lot of runs (143 wRC+, 2022) and carries a tidy sweet-spot rate (39.0 SS%, 2022). McNeil is an excellent source of BA/OBP and has sneaky pop due to the SS%.
Finally, regarding Yoshida, the 29-year-old is making the transition from Japanese Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB. Already, he is a dark horse to win the AL batting title in his rookie season. Yoshida has a career .327 BA in seven NPB seasons, including a .335/.447/.561 slash line with 21 HR and 88 RBI for Orix in 2022. His swing reminds me of another Orix Buffaloe who made the leap from NPB to MLB, Ichiro Suzuki. Maybe you’ve heard of him? He was pretty good. Ichiro hit .350 for Seattle to lead the AL in 2001. Can Yoshida follow in his footsteps? Steamer projects him for a .298 batting average. Would take a few more base knocks, but he’s in the neighborhood. It will all depend on his transition to the states and if he can avoid the rookie pitfalls of another one of our hitting targets (Seiya Suzuki).
Ezequiel Tovar – Colorado Rockies, SS, RHH (Current NFBC ADP: 235.07)
Tovar debuted last September as the youngest position player in Rockies history. Hell, barely missed making the Opening Day roster after he tore it up in 2022 Spring Training: .500 (11-for-20), 3 HR, 2 2B. But he could not be stopped at Double-A Hartford (295 PA, .318/.386/.545, .227 ISO, .405 wOBA, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 17 SB) and Triple-A Albuquerque (23 PA, .333/.391/.476, 1 HR). Left hip/pelvis inflammation derailed his summer in between, but when he lit up Albuquerque hotter than Jesse Pinkman, his MLB debut could wait no longer. Tovar has demonstrated mental toughness and intelligence for the game far ahead of his years, according to his Minor League coaches, who have reported to manager Bud Black. Tovar will have every shot at the Rockies’ Opening Day shortstop gig. His defense compares to another Venezuelan shortstop, Omar Vizquel.
Yoshida and Tovar will be your AL and NL Rookies of the Year! #HotTake While the former could have a leg up hitting leadoff, the latter will likely be hitting in the nine-hole to begin the season. Watch for his meteoric rise. Ray agrees and lists Tovar as one of his hitting targets.
Shea Langeliers – Oakland Athletics, C, RHH (Current NFBC ADP: 273.18)
Oakland is willing to roll with Langeliers as their everyday catcher after sending four-year standout (and long-time heartthrob of yours truly) Sean Murphy to Atlanta. They received Manny Piña in return (among others… *cough Esteury Ruiz *cough *cough Kyle Muller), but Piña looks like plan B. They are confident in Langeliers’ readiness for the role. The 25-year-old backstop and Oakland’s No. 1 prospect in 2022 made his MLB debut on 8/16, earning a call-up after smashing a barrage of home runs for Triple-A Las Vegas. The Aviators witnessed 19 long flies, 40 XBH and 56 RBI from Langeliers in 2022 with a .283/.366/.510 slash line (353 AB). After the call-up, he collected 17 more XBH over 40 Major League games (142 AB). However, during those 40 games, he hit .218 while striking out at a 37.4% clip.
Yet, Langeliers had a strong finish to last season, and I believe he can build upon it. He tallied 11 hits across Oakland’s last 12 games, including two home runs against the Seattle Mariners on Oct. 2. If he can display those hitting tools – the same hitting tools which drove him up the prospect pipeline – along with employing the defensive wisdom imparted by veteran backstop teammates Stephen Vogt, Murphy and now Piña, Langeliers will be as well-rounded of a catcher as Murphy.
Jared Walsh – Los Angeles Angels, 1B, LHH (Current NFBC ADP: 395.60)
Walsh was a star for the Halos in 2021. Building off his breakthrough 2020, Walsh hit .277/.340/.509 with 29 HR, 34 2B and 98 RBI in 585 PA. The first half was a bit of an outlier but resulted in his first All-Star Game. He did fall off an enormous first-half pace in the second half of the season, but in the end, he complimented Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani well and had a good year. Yet, if the second half was a stumble, 2022 was a two-story fall. The homers dropped to 15. The RBI were cut down by more than half. Walsh lost over 70 points off his OBP and 60 points off his BA. He slugged .374, the same as Tommy Pham – no disrespect! However, as usually tends to be the case, the issue with Walsh was injuries.
The Angels 29-year-old first baseman first started noticing the symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome in 2019, but he continued to play through the injury. After the fact (as is typically the case), we learned the symptoms worsened late in the 2021 season. No wonder there was a fall-off! Finally, when the symptoms reached their peak in 2022, Walsh was shut down with the injury on 8/24. He had thoracic outlet surgery on 9/1, which is plenty of time to heal for this season. In fact, in a recent interview, he said his rehab went well in the offseason, and he’s feeling 100% right now.
“It feels like it, yeah. I feel like I keep getting stronger. I feel great right now, so no complaints. Full go. I can make throws, hit on the field, everything.”
Back to full health and form, Walsh would be a boost for your fantasy lineups. Los Angeles did acquire contingency plans this offseason with the likes of Gio Urshela and Brandon Drury, who he will need to contend with for playing time. Walsh should see mostly righties this season, as Urshela or Drury can platoon with him at first base. However, the Angels are also going to give Walsh reps in the outfield, as he could play either corner spot based on matchups (25 games in RF, 2 in LF career). Having the extra position eligibility over the season will allow for some maneuverability if other guys get hurt on your squad. Steamer has Walsh projected for .239/.303/.433 with 20 HR, 21 2B and 62 RBI in 472 PA.
Acknowledging the Angels’ outfield plans, I say he bests all of those numbers: .250/.310/.460, 25 HR, 35 2B, 80 RBI in 500 PA. Can he still be the same player who was an All-Star in 2021? Sure, health permitting. But the bottom line is he doesn’t have to be the superstar he was in the first half of 2021 to help our fantasy teams, especially at his low, low cost.
(See also Hunter Renfroe, OF RHH; Current NFBC ADP: 142.73)
TOP ADP HITTING TARGETS: Yordan Alvarez (9.25) / Corey Seager (57.69) / Alex Bregman (70.33)
Don’t miss a beat for your fantasy baseball drafts… check out our Draft Guide Welcome Page or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia!