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A lot of places put out Under-The-Radar Targets or some nomenclature like it. But let’s call it what it really is… Hot Takes. These are my hot takes on some guys you might not be thinking about as we inch toward the 2023 Fantasy Baseball season. Whether they be targets for your late draft(s) or guys you can grab in exchange for the one bonehead pick you made, use the latest news and info from Spring Training as you will. These pitching targets are not at the top of your draft boards, but they’ll win you championships!
Triston McKenzie – Cleveland Guardians, RHP (Current NFBC ADP: 93.09)
You may be familiar with my take on McKenzie if you played my Fantasy Baseball Game. Over the past two full seasons, his control has been a work in progress. In 2021, he struck out the world, but he also allowed more than his fair share of walks (11.7%, 120 IP). The young pitcher worked on his wild ways during the offseason. As a result, when 2022 began, McKenzie demonstrated elite control and cut down the walk rate. However, batters laid their sticks on more pitches pounding the strike zone, and the Ks went waaaaay down. Like barely at a double-digit rate. He searched for the put-away curve that feeds so well off his four-seam fastball, which he displayed many times in 2021. As the 2022 season wore on, we witnessed the K-rate slowly rise to 25.6% (27.5% in 2021, 33.1% in 2020 – 33.1 IP).
If McKenzie can put it all together in the 2023 season, he can be a Top 15 SP in fantasy baseball! I believe this kid is about to break out in a big way.
Nick Lodolo – Cincinnati Reds, LHP (Current NFBC ADP: 130.75)
Everybody is talking about Hunter Greene yet again heading into this season. People love the heat. After all, Greene did set a pitch-tracking era record with 39 triple-digit heaters in his second career start. Projections love Greene too – Steamer sees him as a top-25 pitcher by Wins Above Replacement, on the same level as Dylan Cease, Max Fried, Blake Snell and Zac Gallen, and projects him for 212 strikeouts, 11th-most of any pitcher. Did they forget about the three-month stretch from May through July when he had a 5.49 ERA? What about the shoulder strain that cost him more than a month? In defense, Greene was lights out to close the year (4 GS, 0.78 ERA, 14.5 K/9). He figured some things out, and I have no doubt he’ll take the next step this season. But it’s a rocky road despite the hype.
On the other hand (literally), Cincy has another young pitcher who I am higher on with Lodolo. The 25-year-old has 1.5 years on Greene. This means that when Greene was drafted out of Notre Dame High School (CA) in the 2017 MLB Draft (Round 1, 2nd Overall), Lodolo was pitching collegiate innings at Texas Christian. No slouch himself, Lodolo went seventh overall in the 2019 Draft. Before his selection, in his Junior season at TC, he amassed 131 strikeouts in 103 innings pitched alongside a 2.36 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. In three minor-league seasons, he posted a 2.42 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with 126 strikeouts in 81.2 IP (not including Alternate Site work in 2020). Despite few official innings, Lodolo made the jump to the Majors due to a depleted Reds squad, and the numbers were solid.
Nick Lodolo vs. Hunter Greene, 2022 MLB Stats
Both men are young and will be adding the change up to their arsenal, but I always side with college players, at least for the short term. Do you remember those Steamer projections for Greene? Well, Lodolo has a better Proj. FP (8.46) than Greene (8.98; 112.70 ADP) at a lower cost.
Patrick Sandoval – Los Angeles Angels, LHP (Current NFBC ADP: 213.68)
Few realize that Sandoval has recorded a 3.17 ERA for the Angels over the past two seasons. Last season was the first time the 26-year-old southpaw fired over 122.1 innings as a pro. He responded with a 2.91 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 148.2 IP. Blessed by a five-pitch arsenal, it is his wipeout slider and changeup which stand out the most. He did have difficulties with the base on balls, leading to a 9.4% walk rate and 1.34 WHIP. However, he limits damage with a 47.4% ground-ball rate and lots of medium-to-soft contact. Typical lefty. But through the ups and downs, he still had expected metrics below four (i.e., 3.91 xERA, 3.67 xFIP) and a 3.8 WAR.
Sandoval will compete in the World Baseball Classic for Team Mexico. I often target guys who participate in the WBC every four years as the competitive juices get flowing early. And with a plethora of arms for Mexico to choose from, I’m not worried about any innings strain. Keep tabs on the tournament!
Angels are going to be good this year – we think, although this has been said before – and Sandoval will play his part in it. He could easily be a steal at this ADP. Bloody Reid Detmers is going just before Sandoval (212.78), which is a tad disrespectful. Though, don’t get it twisted. In deeper leagues, I would be interested in Detmers’ services due to an increasing K rate, descending BB rate and decent ERA/xERA. Detmers was the smoke in college and could be finding sure ground at the MLB level.
Edward Cabrera – Miami Marlins, RHP (Current NFBC ADP: 218.24)
Some arguments may exist against including Cabrera in our pitching targets for 2023. Or at least ahead of two other Marlin arms I like a lot (see below), and this soon into his MLB career. However, here’s my spin on the young man who boasts a 96mph changeup.
Early on in Spring Training, new Marlins pitcher Johnny Cueto is mentoring the soon-to-be 25-year-old Cabrera. Just another good reason for signing the 15-year veteran with his wealth of experience. Cabrera is already coming off a stellar second year in the bigs. He posted a 3.01 ERA (135 ERA+) and a 1.07 WHIP in 14 starts (71.2 IP). The former Top 100 prospect missed some time due to right elbow tendinitis, but he flashed his potential when healthy. Miami hopes he can take the next step with help from Cueto. He can aid the youngster to reduce his enormous 11.3% BB rate and increase his 45.3% GB rate, which is already a decent mark. The two righties will be in tow until Cueto departs for the WBC. My money is on osmosis and Cabrera being the second-best pitcher on the Marlins’ staff after Sandy Alcantara.
Even young left-handers Jesús Luzardo (Current NFBC ADP: 150.67) and Braxton Garrett (Current NFBC ADP: 397.61) can learn from Cueto. If you have been a subscriber here at Fantasy Guru for some time, you know I love The Lizard. Luzardo, much like Cabrera, missed time in 2022 due to injury (18 GS, 100.1 IP). However, he showed real progression and posted a 3.32 ERA (3.11 xFIP, 3.28 SIERA, 3.39 xERA). What I enjoy most seeing are the elevated K rate (30.0%) and depressed BB rate (8.8%). The feel is back, and the pedigree is solid.
Speaking of pedigree, Garrett, a seventh overall pick in the 2016 Draft, impressed in 2022. In 17 game starts (88 IP), he had a 3.58 ERA (3.50 xFIP, 3.52 SIERA, 4.05 xERA). His 1.25 WHIP showed real development, and it’s hard not to like a 24.1% K rate and 6.4% BB rate. It seems unlikely Miami would keep three lefties in the rotation, meaning one of Luzardo, Garrett or Trevor Rogers would be the odd man out. Garrett is likely in the most precarious position to begin the season, but we all know injuries do happen. Pay attention as Spring Training continues!
Josiah Gray – Washington Nationals, RHP (Current NFBC ADP: 430.56)
It doesn’t get much hotter than this take. Yes, I realize I’m recommending the home run pitching machine that is Gray (2.30 HR/9 in 2022, 148.2 IP). No, I have not been drinking.
The transition to DC has not been the smoothest. He has started 40 games and amassed 211.1 IP, totaling an ERA above 5 and a WHIP above 1.35. Also, he led the National League with 66 walks. But not every prospect hits the ground running. His issues have to do with his four-seam fastball, which is often too flat and gets pulverized when the location is poor. You can get away with that in the Minors but not at this level. This offseason and into the spring, Gray is working on adjusting his mechanics to create a straighter line to the plate, preventing some of those fastballs that are aimed at the outside corner from tailing back over the heart of the plate. Additionally, if he can improve his sinker to create more movement and give the batter a different look, he could replicate his minor-league success.
I say this confidently because of his plus-plus offspeed pitches. According to Baseball Savant, Gray’s slider (38% Whiff rate) and curveball (32%) elicited a sub-.190 batting average in 2022. With a more effective four-seam fastball and further confidence to throw his sinker more often, Gray will have a better offspeed combination. Let’s be ahead of the curve.
Matt Manning – Detroit Tigers, RHP (Current NFBC ADP: 498.18)
Ok, maybe it does get hotter. Manning was limited to 12 GS and 63 innings in 2022 due to a shoulder scare last April which knocked him out for a couple of months and tendinitis that ended his season a couple of weeks early and led to a visit with orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister. Manning is fine now and said he has had a normal offseason routine.
While healthy, Manning was effective. He had a 3.43 ERA (3.78 FIP, 4.00 xERA), which was the lowest of any Tiger with at least 10 starts last year. Furthermore, he posted quality starts in five of his final nine outings. While he improved his K/9 (still 6.86, a paltry number), his hit, home run and walk rates all dropped. Manning leans on his fastball, which he effectively threw 51.4% of the time in 2022. Yet, it’s his slider which generates the more swing and misses (35.8% Whiff rate, 23.7% Put Away rate). Detroit will be leaning on the ninth overall pick from the 2016 Draft to take the next step in his career. And as he adjusts his fastball to the major leagues, we’ll be leaning on him, too.
TOP ADP PITCHING TARGETS: Luis Castillo (61.83) / Zac Gallen (74.02)
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