In Part II, Rob Povia reviews Fantasy Baseball ADP and 2023 projected production. Using consensus draft values across league hosts, we create a larger picture.
Now that we created a larger picture of players from last season in ‘2022 ADP vs. Fantasy Baseball Production,’ let’s look at Steamer projections and see how this process matches up with the ADP leading into the 2023 season. We will once again utilize consensus draft values across the most popular league hosts – NFBC, Fantrax, Yahoo, RT Sports, CBS and ESPN (as of 2/3/23). But first, let’s address a potential elephant in the room.
How Do Positions Factor into Selection (i.e. Position Scarcity)?
You have to ask yourself, “Do I want the top-ranked player in the scarce positions, or do I want to collect players who will perform the best overall… together?” The answer is clear. Because, in the end, categorical standings/points accumulate together anyway, right? We don’t get measured per position (at least not in most leagues). To draw a comparison to fantasy football, in winning weeks, there are a few players who hit ceiling games while others score in the single digits.
Let’s look at a budding superstar, Rafael Devers. Boston locked him up for the next decade-plus, and many fantasy owners would like to lock him up too. Currently, he has a 19.28 consensus ADP yet is 36th overall on our list of projected Fantasy Production (1.32 FP). Can Devers exceed expectations and projections? Fuck yeah. But can you also draft Alex Bregman in the fourth or fifth round? Again, the answer is, fuck yeah. Let’s get to it!
Hitters: ISO*2.25 + wOBA + BB/K = FP
BEST OF THE TOP 100
Juan Soto avoids arbitration with the Padres by agreeing to a $23 million deal. After arriving in San Diego at the Trade Deadline in a blockbuster last summer, Soto enters his first full year with the Friars. Expect fireworks!
Once again closely following Mr. Soto is Alex Bregman. This time last year, we projected him to finish second behind Soto with a 1.66 FP, and Bregman finished third with a 1.93 FP! If not for Aaron Judge’s MVP season, Bregman would have been second behind Soto again. He has an excellent eye at the dish with his 1.02 BB/K, which propels his FP. However, the ISO could rise since he can now sell out more to pull for power due to shift limitations! Maybe he has a shot at the top spot! Getting back to Judge, Steamer doesn’t expect a repeat of last season. His ISO projects to be .097 lower, Proj. wOBA is .063 lower, and his Proj. BB/K is .07 lower. After all, the man has been paid but now comes with a first-round price tag. Still worth it!
José Ramírez was my Fantasy All-Star in 2022, as I’m sure he was for many of you. His 1.73 FP (fifth-highest) often carried my team during rough injury times. Three times last season, he had multi-HR games, and overall, he stroked 78 extra-base hits. When coupled with 20 stolen bases (which could rise this year – see above link), it’s easy to see why his 3.36 consensus ADP is even higher than last year. After all, his 1.67 projected FP is right in-line with last season’s spectacular output! His second-year teammate Steven Kwan gets a massive boost from his Steamer BB/K projection of 0.95. I will not be drafting him ahead of Judge (lol), but he does offer fantasy appeal at a 137.92 ADP.
Don’t look now, but Vinnie Pasquantino (104.55 ADP, 1.67 Proj. FP) could be a league-winner if Steamer projections come to fruition! But they are some lofty goals (i.e. .215 ISO, 0.82 BB/K). Steamer seems to be high on several second-year players, like the Italian Nightmare’s teammate, MJ Melendez (105.58 ADP, 1.34 Proj. FP). Yet, they are down on Willy Adames (105.02 ADP, 1.12 Proj. FP), especially when it comes to ISO. After boasting at least a .219 over the last three seasons (two teams), Streamer projects him at .197 for 2023.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a projected FP of 1.64, 0.33 higher than his 2022 output. Much like a bulk of the fantasy community, Steamer expects a rebound for Vlad in the rankings. Where he was a top-5 pick last season, consensus ADP shows he can be had at 10.
Freddie Freeman had a very successful first year in LA after the waterworks were over. His 1.63 FP in 2022 was good for eighth best. His projected FP for 2023 is 1.61, but it will cost you a first-round pick rather than an early second, where I got him last year to be the Robin to José Ramírez’s Batman.
This season there is a high likelihood Yordan Alvarez will be my first-round pick in leagues where I’m drafting in the backend. I will pair him with Bregman. They will be this year’s dynamic duo.
Pete Alonso projects for an even finer season than a year ago with his 1.47 FP (1.44 in 2022). As a result, his ADP is sitting at 26.44. At 26.84 lies Paul Goldschmidt, who projects for a lower 1.34. Much like his MVP counterpart in the AL, Steamer doesn’t expect a repeat of last season, and neither do I. Yet, at 111.72, you can grab Rhys Hoskins (love him or hate him), who projects for a 1.32 FP.
The Phillies said they expect Bryce Harper back by the All-Star break due to surgery repairing an injured ligament in his right elbow. Superagent Scott Boras says Harper has “super-healing qualities.” He could be back as soon as June, so you’ll have to decide if you want to stash The Quaff and his 1.55 projected FP. As of this writing, it will cost you a late-second or early third-round pick.
A pair of Angels: Mike Trout continues to be an elite fantasy contributor… when he’s on the field. His 1.59 2022 FP was good for ninth place and derived from a 15.48 ADP. Trout projects for 1.46 this season at a 20.10 ADP. Shohei Ohtani was 26th in 2022 FP (1.37) yet projects for 1.44 this season. Business as usual. And nearby across town resides a pair of Trolly Dodgers, Will Smith (56.14 ADP, 1.43 Proj. FP) and Max Muncy (134.42, 1.42).
Expect big things for Wander Franco in 2023. The third-year player is ready to break out, and Steamer agrees (1.48 Proj. FP).
In 2022, Ronald Acuña Jr. finished 61st in FP due to sporadic playing time after returning from injury. Steamer agrees with our expectations of a return to normalcy (1.37 Proj. FP, 7.62 ADP). Also, his consensus ADP is up nearly five spots despite last year’s output. Suppose you’re skeptical of Ronnie’s eliteness or health. In that case, Kyle Tucker still has an ADP of 10.72 yet is projected for 1.53 FP! And at 57.50, you can acquire the services of Kyle Schwarber (1.36 Proj. FP and could be higher).
Fernando Tatis Jr. has 20 games remaining on his PED suspension and a new teammate, fellow shortstop Xander Bogaerts. He’ll be playing left field when he returns (or “a” corner outfield position), and based on the expected production (1.52 Proj. FP), 20 games will seem like mere child’s play. But with his health history and reckless behavior, will it be more? He seemed genuinely apologetic and ready to take ownership of his career after receiving his suspension. High risk / high reward.
Speaking of Bogey, he is projected for a 1.21 FP (technically 1.207) at a consensus ADP of 70.48. Fellow shortstop Carlos Correa, now that he has a team, is projected for 1.32 FP with a more affordable 98.76 ADP. But if you’re just shopping for some middle infielders at this point of your draft, may I interest you in waiting for Ketel Marte (1.21075 FP, 161.18 ADP) or Jorge Polanco (1.21675 FP, 126.20 ADP)? I’d rather either than Marcus Semien, who commands a third-round pick. If you’re trying to lock down shortstop earlier, beware of Francisco Lindor, whose Proj. FP is in the same neighborhood, but the draft price is not. Corey Seager would be a better bet. I’m high on Seager, and if I can draft him alongside Alvarez and Bregman, I can name my team “Lone Starr.”
A good bet would be to take a shot on Gunnar Henderson at 86.93 ADP. His Proj. FP is a robust 1.23, equal to Austin Riley (27.34 ADP). And speaking of Baltimore, Adley Rutschman (1.50 Proj. FP) has a chance of usurping Will Smith as the best catcher in fantasy baseball if his projected 0.74 BB/K holds up. But that’s a tall task! So is the 1.01 BB/K that Steamer projects for Alejandro Kirk. He had 63 BB to 58 K in 541 PA for 2022, but his Proj. FP is uber-inflated because of the high BB/K projection. Still, Kirk is a fabulous backstop for two-catcher leagues (123.90 ADP), especially if he hits middle of the order.
Julio Rodríguez has the same consensus ADP as J.T. Realmuto. Even with the position scarcity of catcher, who would you rather have? Julio projects to maintain his lofty rookie stats, unlike many other youngsters. His Proj. FP is 1.20, which falls between Bogaerts and Lindor. Realmuto’s Proj. FP is 1.08.
How Jeff McNeil, coming off a batting title, is not in the top 100 hitters in ADP I’ll never know (173.63 ADP, 1.21 Proj. FP). McNeil would be 51st on our list, ahead of Julio Rodríguez.
Christian Yelich’s .169 Proj. ISO may be a misprint, as the Brewers’ OF hasn’t had an ISO north of .130 since the truncated 2020 season (58 games). But if you are a believer, Yelich offers a potential 1.26 FP at a 106.54 ADP.
It’s easier to see why Arizona traded away Daulton Varsho (81.54 ADP, 1.1475 Proj. FP) when they have Corbin Carroll (100.53 ADP, 1.1485 Proj. FP).
The steal of your draft may very well be Hunter Renfroe (152.30 ADP, 1.19 Proj. FP). Unless, Andrew Vaughn (155.56 ADP, 1.18 Proj. FP) or Sean Murphy (161.04 ADP, 1.19 Proj. FP) beat him to the punch!
WORST OF THE TOP 100
Some of these names might surprise you! Tim Anderson always sucks in this metric thanks to a poor BB/K and lower ISO. His fantasy value is higher than what this project depicts, but there are better options. Starling Marte and Sal Perez may surprise you, as well. While Marte doesn’t hit for enough power, Perez strikes out too much. However, I’m fine with the latter at the C/DH position. Dansby Swanson is hot garbage. Yeah, I wrote! You will all see so in his first season with Chicago.
By now, we should all be aware of what we get with Javier Báez – prestigious home runs and wild whiffs. Both the ISO & wOBA are decent; his BB/K is not. He should not be drafted ahead of Jorge Polanco, but you know he will be. Don’t be that guy.
Amed Rosario AND Jeremy Peña are just warm bodies. Don’t kid yourself. Adolis García brings value in the ever-elusive power/speed department, so I’m good with the ADP price tag. However, it comes at an expense of 183 and 194 strikeouts in the past two seasons.
If Whit Merrifield isn’t running, I’m not interested. Maybe the bigger bags and other new rules will help? His 21 attempts last season were his lowest (excluding 2020) since his rookie season.
We discussed the disappointment from Nick Castellanos in Part I as well as theorized a bounceback this year. Steamer does not agree with his poor 0.98 Proj. FP.
Steamer expects a “sophomore slump” for Michael Harris II. I type slump because a .217 ISO and .368 wOBA are hard to maintain for a young player (0.20 BB/K). However, we’ll gladly take a .190/.342/0.29 baseline in those same statistics. His Proj. FP is 1.06, the same as Luis Robert!
Trea Turner is drafted for the combo of speed, scoring runs, and driving them in with timely hits. He has a good wOBA, but it could be even better if he took more walks and chased less. His 131 strikeouts last season was his worst mark since 2018. He is typically down in FP rankings because of a below-average BB/K.
Gleyber Torres projects for a 1.14 FP, .08 higher than last season despite a lower Steamer ISO (.181, .194 in 2022). As a result, his ADP is up 16 spots from this time last year. I’m skeptical and have no interest.
Side Note: Oneil Cruz (117.30 ADP, 1.16 Proj. FP) hurt his left ankle while playing with Tigres del Licey of the Dominican Republic Professional Baseball League. We’ll need to monitor his status when Spring Training begins. Fun!
Pitchers: ERA + WHIP + FIP = FP
*Note: We used ABA calculations & SIERA last time out, but Steamer doesn’t project those stats, so changed to WHIP & FIP for this analysis.
BEST OF THE TOP 60
Disclaimer: Steamer pitching projections seem awfully inflating at the time of this writing (1/17/23). Will the new rules make this much of a difference? Maybe. A prime example is Devin Williams (7.52 Proj. FP). Last season, Williams posted a 1.93 ERA and 2.01 FIP in 65 appearances (15 saves). Now closing for Milwaukee, Steamer says his ERA will rise to 3.12 and FIP to 3.20. Also, his WHIP will rise from 1.01 to 1.20. While he could struggle with the new role, these projections seem drastic, and he’s not the only one. The projections are universally pessimistic so will still work for this study. Plus, the rankings still show how ADP doesn’t equate to fantasy production. For example, Félix Bautista’s consensus ADP is 20 spots lower than Williams, yet his Proj. FP is 7.47.
Closers Edwin Díaz and Emmanuel Clase are still at the head of the class. However, this year, their ADPs have caught up to their fellow elite closers.
Will Jacob deGrom stay healthy and keep his spot near the top of our leaderboards with his new team in Texas? That is the million-dollar question, yet people are still buying him at a rich ADP.
Part I of this series illustrates Josh Hader’s poor showing in 2022. Yet, here we see the upside from his postseason run.
Steamer got it right with Spencer Strider. Coming off his largest innings total as a pro, you can expect his stellar Rookie of the Year runner-up numbers to rise. However, we’ll gladly take a 3.10 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Although, it’ll take a third or fourth-round pick to grab him. As an aside, his 43.1 ADP is the same as teammate Ozzie Albies!
Another gentleman that Steamer accurately portrays is Shane McClanahan. At a Proj. FP of 7.11, he has me going from six to midnight, just like my first girlfriend had me behind a 7-Eleven. Meanwhile, teammate Tyler Glasnow will be embarking on his first full season post-Tommy John surgery. He did have three starts in 2022, regular and postseason combined, with the longest being the five-inning playoff affair at Cleveland (2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K). He looked sharp and ready to tackle his off-season work. Steamer says it will pay off with a 7.33 Proj. FP at an awesome 108.08 ADP. Get him before the crowd catches onto us! 🤫
Apparently, Gerrit Cole has a dude on the inside of Streamer headquarters. Or at least he invested in some good knee pads because his projections are bonkers good in comparison to others. He and Corbin Burnes have the same 7.29 Proj. FP.
Burnes and Shohei Ohtani are neck and neck in Proj. FP, with the lone difference being by .02 FIP in favor of Burnes. I WANT SHOHEI IN DAILY LEAGUES! But would “settle” for Burnes. 😏
The Philadelphia twins of Aaron Nola (36.26 ADP, 7.93 Proj. FP) and Zack Wheeler (49.56, 7.98) are ready to lead the charge back to the World Series with impressive projections. However, better values reside in Framber Valdez (85.80, 7.84), Kevin Gausman (64.06, 7.89) and Luis Castillo (75.54, 7.92). I’m particularly excited about what a full year at T-Mobile Park will mean for Castillo! If you are married to the idea of grabbing pitching in the third-to-fourth round, a better pitching tandem is Max Scherzer (36.66, 7.56) and Justin Verlander (58.66, 7.71).
Gerrit Cole’s insider dude must have a medicinal marijuana card. Because Streamer is smoking some potent cheeba if they think Sandy Alcantara will have a 3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. At a 29.94 consensus ADP, his 8.22 Proj. FP just seems off. But be aware. A little more than 40 spots later, Max Fried comes in with an equally inflated 8.31 Proj. FP. This is why Ray Flowers writes about how projection models can be flawed. After firing 228.2 innings in 2022, I’m willing to consider all of the above and pass on Alcantara at his expensive price. However, if I can land Fried at 70, I’m selecting him all day. Yet, even at an affordable 125.94 ADP, I don’t see how Blake Snell posts a higher Proj. FP of 8.05.
I’m drafting Zac Gallen everywhere; Steamer be damned! But did you know George Kirby is a better value?
Do you think Pablo López (163.60 ADP, 8.60 Proj. FP) will outperform Dylan Cease (46.80, 8.63) in 2023? Streamer seems to think so, possibly thinking Cease’s 10.6% career walk rate will finally bite him. I have my doubts, but López can certainly be a rebound candidate. Author’s Note: López was traded to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez after my data was collected and the article was written. While we don’t know how this move will affect the 26-year-old right-hander, he will face teams like the Royals more, even with the balanced schedule.
Chris Sale (161.10 ADP) ranks 22nd out of the top 60 in Proj. FP with 7.89. Hmmm…
WORST OF THE TOP 60
I can buy Lucas Giolito being here, but Triston McKenzie and Joe Ryan? All three have no business being down this far in projections. I get Lucas had a down year, but he was pitching hurt. We all know this. Still, he has a lot to prove, so I understand the projections. However, McKenzie and Ryan are two budding young stars and favorites of mine. For reference, McK posted a 7.50 FP in 2022, and Ryan had an 8.64. Both have pitched in the big leagues for three years or under, which shows their timeline for development. All three will be better than projections indicate, even with the new rules factor. Bold Prediction: McKenzie will be a Top 15 SP in 2023! I’ll have more on this in ‘Under-The-Radar Pitching Targets,’ coming out soon for our Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide!
Why is Steamer so down on Julio Urías (44.98 ADP, 9.29 Proj. FP)? A projected 4.04 ERA? GTFOH! Don’t get me started. In short, he’s my early pick for NL Cy Young. But the worst projections I may have seen were for Alek Manoah (67.12 ADP, 4.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.08 FIP, 9.33 Proj. FP)! 🤮
In 2022, Freddy Peralta missed more than two months with a right shoulder strain before going down once again in September with right shoulder inflammation. As a result, he was held to 17 starts and 78 IP. Peralta, like Giolito, has a lot to prove.
Kenley Jansen is the new Red Sox closer after signing a two-year, $32 million contract in December. However, Jansen regressed big-time in 2022 despite saving 41 games for Atlanta. His ERA rose by 1.16, giving up nine more hits than in 2021 despite five fewer innings pitched. He resembled closer to his 2018-20 form than 2021. A shift to the AL East doesn’t make ya warm and fuzzy inside. Just ask Chris Bassitt. But I won’t be able to quit CBass.
Steamer left a big steaming pile of turd on Cristian Javier’s projection doorstep. Proj. 4.00 ERA? 1.22 WHIP? Whatever dude! And they believe there will not be a repeat performance for Kyle Wright (112.36 ADP, 9.03 Proj. FP). Yet, Javier’s teammate Luis Garcia has an even worse prognosis.
After going through the data for the last two articles, the evidence is clear. ADP does not indicate resultant fantasy production. While it can be a decent road map, you can go your own way. Hopefully, at the very least, I’ve given you tools in the past two pieces to help make Your Draft Position list. Projecting players’ performances may be a fool’s errand in this topsy-turvy world we live in, but if you examine how a player has performed in the past and match it with current trends, we can buck the system…
Download the complete list of Top 100 Hitters ADP vs. Proj. FP, Top 60 Pitchers ADP vs. Proj. FP
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