Rob Povia examines the new rules’ effect on fantasy baseball:
Shift Ban, Pitch Clock, Bigger Bases!
MLB is instituting new rules for the 2023 season, but how will these rule changes affect our fantasy baseball players? In today’s draft guide article, I examine the effects of the shift ban, pitch clock and larger bags for stealing bases. Which hitters will benefit the most from the end of the full infield shift? Who may not succeed as much as you’d think? Which pitchers will feel the heat of the new pitch timer and get themselves in trouble? What arms will the clock serve well? Lastly, will bigger pillows on the diamond aid in the Art of the Steal? All the answers lie within.
Shift Ban
Following recent experiments in the Minor Leagues, the Joint Competition Committee voted to institute the three rule changes. The JCC is “a voting body consisting of four active players, six members appointed by MLB and one umpire.” The committee’s formulation was a part of the 2022-26 Collective Bargaining Agreement. The JCC aims to improve pace of play, action and safety. We’ll begin with the middle component… action! The 11 members intend on limiting defensive shifts in the game. By rule, “the defensive team must have a minimum of four players on the infield, with at least two infielders completely on either side of second base.” These limitations intend to raise the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and encourage traditional results on batted balls. Also, they will allow infielders to display their athleticism. Cause shit, I’ve been dying to see an Ozzie Smith-like backflip.
Coming into the 2023 season, MLB’s BABIP is .290, which is seven points lower than in 2012 and 11 points lower than in 2006. The league should once again see a near .300 BABIP with the new rules in effect. Now, four infielders must be within the outer boundary of the infield when the pitcher is on the rubber. Additionally, teams will no longer be able to place their best defender, regardless of position, on the pull side of the infield. Infielders may not switch sides. However, a five-man infield can still be employed where a team positions an outfielder in the infield (or in the shallow outfield grass). Rules do prohibit four-outfielder alignments, much to the delight of shift detractors. If there are any infractions by the time of the pitch, the offense can choose an automatic ball or the result of the play.
Apologies for potentially wasting two paragraphs of your time, but I didn’t want to belie these defensive shift limits. The term “shift ban” may be a touch misleading, as teams will still be able to align their infielders to plug the “hot zones” from their scouting data. Plus, it’s baseball. Rules are made. Rules are stretched. And then, rules are even broken. Bottom line, there are pull-happy hitters whose delight can be seen from outer space. And you can call Corey Seager Rocketman!
According to 2022 Statcast data, Seager could have had 20 more hits that were instead gobbled up in the shift, the most of any hitter in baseball. Kyle Schwarber and Carlos Santana are tied for second on the list. We will revisit these gentlemen later, but first, let’s look more into Seager, who was shifted on 93% of his at-bats (AB). He made contact with 481 batted balls against a full or partial shift, easily the most of any lefty. He pulled 107 grounders into the shift, also the most, leaving a massive gap between Charlie Blackmon’s 86 in second place. Seager’s batting average (BA) of ground balls hit into the shift was .056 – the equivalent of six hits. His above-average zone contact rate (85.1%) and barrel rate (10.5%) also help place him above fellow lefty colleagues. While outs will be recorded, hits will be abundant for Seager.
In 2022, Seager had a slash line of .245/.317/.455, good for a .772 OPS. With the shift limitations, those numbers project for .278/.347/.489, good for a .836 OPS. Those “measly” 20 hits make a big difference – a 33-point difference in batting average alone. Also, the number of hits could be more, as 262 of his 481 shifted batted balls were in play for infielders (<220 feet). This accounted for 40% of Seager’s plate appearances (PA), 15% higher than the average lefty batter and 29% of the average righty batter. I could bore you with all the Statcast math, but in layman’s terms, if 8% find a hole, that’s 20.96 hits. What if it is 9%? That’s 23.58 hits. What if it is 10%? That’s 26.2 hits… ok, that last one was a gimme. But you get my point.
So, who else will party like it’s 1999? We already breezed upon Kyle Schwarber and Carlos Santana, so let’s first get back to them.
Utilizing the same 2022 Statcast data, Schwarber would have a potential 12-hit increase. Schwarbs was shifted on 91% of his AB. He makes less contact than Seager – striking out 97 more times – and thus has fewer balls hit into the shift. Only 27% of Schwarber’s PA ended with a batted ball that could have been shift-affected, which cuts down his losses to the defense greatly. Still, because he hits the ball so hard – 54.4% hard-hit rate (HH%), Top 1% of MLB – we will indubitably see more balls finding holes. Schwarber had 200 strikeouts (K) and 46 home runs (HR) in 2022’s shift-laden effort, which represents an all-or-none philosophy. With more traditional holes, could we see a more contact-concentric approach from Schwarber closer resembling his Chicago Cubs days? Wouldn’t go that far, but it’s in his toolbox. A fair estimate of 12 extra singles is attainable, or maybe more!
Santana also projects for a 12-hit increase from 2022. As a left-handed hitter (LHH), he saw an unworldly 98% shift rate (28% as an RHH). Based on the data, 11 hits were lost as a lefty and one as a righty. While RHHs see the shift fewer times per PA, they still see it, and it can affect them as well. Pirates general manager Ben Cherington is banking on Santana taking advantage of shift limitations, citing upon signing him: “Based on the analysis we’ve done from his 2022 season, (with) potentially some benefit from the shift rules, there could be even more offense than what he showed this past year.” He will need to, as the once hitting-machine of Cleveland has lost oil over the last three seasons (.207/.323/.355 slash line for three teams).
However, among players with 750 PA over the last three years, Santana has the lowest BABIP. Surely, this has to be at least a little about the shift.
Next on our list is not exactly a household name. In fact, his NFBC ADP resides in the mid-500s. In addition, he’s an RHH who could gain 10 potential hits, more than many LHHs who face the shift more often. Tyrone Taylor hit against the shift 43% of his PA in 2022 due to his pull-happy ways (see his Baseball Savant Heat Map below!).
Taylor’s BABIP difference between facing the shift (.236) and without the shift (.319) is light years away. Taylor pulled the baseball 63% of the time when hitting ground balls, top-10 in all of baseball. While a few of those grounders may still be outs with proper alignment within the new rules, many others will find holes by no longer having three infielders on the left side of second base. Taylor could be a sneaky late-round flier in drafts. Robby likey a .319 BABIP with a 550 ADP price tag!
Getting back to a household name while sticking with the right side of the plate, Alex Bregman saw a huge rise in shift rate for the 2022 season. From 2019-2021, teams shifted on Bregman around 30% annually. In 2022, the rate skyrocketed to 58%! Undoubtedly, teams reacted to how much he has been selling out to pull for power. In fact, he pulled 80% of his extra-base hits (XBH). Now that the shift is limited, Bregman could regain a minimum of eight hits. I say a minimum because this figure of eight does not account for ground balls up the middle. That was a trademark for Bregman early in his career. Just another reason to like this stud.
More Hitters Who Benefit From Shift Ban
- Jesús Sánchez (Marlins OF, LHH): +9 potential hits gained, 50% shift rate, .395 BABIP against standard defenses, .180 against shifted defenses
- Carson Kelly (D-backs C, RHH): +9 potential hits gained, 35% shift rate, .286 BABIP against standard defenses, .231 against shifted defenses
- Salvador Perez (Royals C, RHH): +9 potential hits gained, 76% shift rate, .378 BABIP against standard defenses, .272 against shifted defenses
- Rowdy Tellez (Brewers 1B/DH, LHH): +8 potential hits gained, 78% shift rate, .167 BABIP against standard defenses, .217 against shifted defenses (despite BABIP inverse, out of 53 batters who had at least 200 batted balls against a shift, Tellez went opposite field second-least)
- Abraham Toro (Brewers 2B/3B, SWH): +8 potential hits gained (9 potential hits taken away as an LHH but loses one as an RHH), 77% shift rate (LHH); 8% (RHH), .278 BABIP against standard defenses, .176 against shifted defenses
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros DH/OF, LHH): +7 potential hits gained, 96% shift rate, .500 BABIP against standard defenses, .314 against shifted defenses
- Cavan Biggio (Blue Jays 2B, LHH): +7 potential hits gained, 98% shift rate (tied with Santana), .250 BABIP against standard defenses, .276 against shifted defenses (similar to Tellez; also, Biggio had a mere four PA without facing a traditional or non-traditional shift)
- Charlie Blackmon (Rockies OF, LHH – see grounders into the shift above): +6 potential hits gained, 90% shift rate, .317 BABIP against standard defenses, .302 against shifted defenses
- Kyle Tucker (Astros OF, LHH): +6 potential hits gained, 98% shift rate (tied with Santana), .714 BABIP against standard defenses (7 PA, 4 1B, 1 2B), .254 against shifted defenses
- Max Muncy (Dodgers 2B/3B, LHH): +5 potential hits gained, 98% shift rate (tied with Santana), .143 BABIP against standard defenses, .229 against shifted defenses (similar to Tellez & Biggio; Muncy had seven PA without facing a traditional or non-traditional shift)
- David Peralta (FA OF, LHH): +5 potential hits gained, 82% shift rate, .322 BABIP against standard defenses, .304 against shifted defenses
Hitters Who May Not Benefit From Shift Ban
So far, we have established a few LHHs who have heavily faced the shift. However, they are not the only lefties who face shifty defenses. Far from it! They are just the names that Statcast deems the worthiest. Or is it the neediest? I digress. But what about names like Anthony Rizzo, Max Kepler or Matt Olson? Surely, they will benefit greatly from the limitations on shifting. Right? Not so fast…
Let’s begin with the latter, Matt Olson (96% shift rate in 2022, at least 80% last four seasons). No hitter in MLB has more hard-hit groundouts against the shift (HHGS). However, unlike his predecessors in Seager and Schwarber (among others), he wasn’t hurt by the shift as much. In 2022, Olson had a .329 BABIP on those same HHGS (13th highest of those with at least 25 HHGS). The MLB average for LHH is .292. Seager and Schwarber were at .209 and .137 respectively.
Overall, Olson had a .287 BABIP, .465 slugging percentage (SLG) and .340 weighted on-base average (wOBA) vs. the shift. Without the shift, those marks are .189 BABIP, .583 SLG and .378 wOBA. Some would argue he hit better against the shift. It all depends on whether you value BA or wOBA. For most fantasy baseball managers, we value the BA and power numbers! What makes Olson unique from the others mentioned is his adaptability. He pulls the ball more without the shift (43%) than against it (38%). Yet, he hits the ball harder when he pulls (94.4 mph) than when he goes to the opposite field (90.6 mph). Thus, he does stand to benefit, but not as much as the others because of his complete package. That’s what she said!
Next up is Rizzo, who people bring up a lot when discussing hitters against the shift. From 2012-19, Rizzo smacked a .277 BA while with Chicago. From 2020-22, that number plummets to .234. However, was the shift influencing this decline or the move to Yankee Stadium, where LHHs will sell out to pull and keep the ball in the air? Rizzo posted a career-low ground-ball rate (GB%) and a career-high pull percentage (P%) last season. Who needs singles when you can pull a ball 314 feet for a home run? Unlike Olson, under 5% of Rizzo’s PA resulted in hard-hit ground-ball outs (27). For reference, Seager had 55 last season. Like it or not, Rizzo has become a true outcome hitter. For a total of 64% of his PA, Rizzo either walked, struck out, or hit the ball far (beyond the 220-foot range of infielders; also includes 23 hit-by-pitch PA).
This leaves us with 36% of Rizzo’s PA to examine. About 18% of the time, he went opposite field against the shift. Thus – and I’m no math major – 18% of the time, he hit into the shift. We discussed his already career-low GB%. So, it would make sense that his grounder rate into the shift would be low. Of all ground balls hit, his 32% mark is indeed a career low. For where Rizzo (33 years old) is in his career, it doesn’t make sense for him to change his approach, trading in XBH for more singles. After all, his 32 HR and 131 on-base plus slugging plus (OPS+) matched his highest totals since 2017!
However, Rizzo will benefit from balls hit further than 220 feet. Remember when we discussed how the new rules prohibit four-outfielder alignments? He had just 10 hits in 43 batted balls against that setup in 2022. While he will not get an enormous boost from infield shift limitations, more outfield space should result in a few more balls getting down.
Finally, we have Max Kepler. He’s hit against the shift at a 94% rate over the last three years. And if we go back to 1994 – the beginning of the Wild Card Era – Kepler has the lowest BABIP of any hitter with at least 2,500 PA. His .248 career BABIP must be due to the shift. Right? Wrong! While Statcast estimates Kepler lost four hits due to the shift in 2022, the mark is not as high as most expect or as his BABIP would initially indicate. Why is that?
Let’s look at Kepler’s 2018 season vs. his 2022 campaign. In 2018, he had a .224 BA and .236 BABIP with a 32% shift rate. In 2022, his average stood at .227, and the BABIP was .249. His 2022 shift rate? Well, if he had a 94% rate over the last three years, it makes sense last season’s mark was high. It was 90%, nearly three times more shifts. And similar to others we have discussed, his career BABIP while facing the shift is higher than non-shift alignments: .254 vs. .238. In terms of HHGS, Kepler had a .283 BABIP in 2022, which was 34th. The MLB average is .292. As we see, the quality of contact matters.
Other Hitters Who May Not Benefit: Jeff McNeil* (Mets 2B/OF, LHH – .416 BABIP vs. the shift, .323 BABIP vs. standard defense), Freddie Freeman* (Dodgers 1B, LHH – .355 BABIP vs. the shift, .380 BABIP vs. standard defense, nearly .400 BA to opposite field), Joey Gallo+ (Twins OF, LHH – .255 BABIP vs. the shift, .308 BABIP vs. standard defense)
*In the case of McNeil & Freeman, data shows they could lose hits without the shift due to their advanced approach & versatility when combating shifts. However, acknowledging this prowess, what’s to stop them from making another adjustment? Bottom line, they are great hitters no matter where the fielders stand. McNeil’s .416 BABIP vs. the shift is the highest of any player with 150 batted balls against it. As a result, teams started playing more straight up against him already (78% rate vs. standard defenses).
+With Gallo, he’s like a poor man’s Rizzo who got run over by a car. Despite a 90% shift rate in 2022, Statcast data says he’d have gained zero extra hits with the new limitations. I have some doubts; look at the BABIP difference between shift and standard defenses. This is a flaw in their research, examining only balls that were hit less than 220 feet. Only 23% of his 2022 PA resulted in batted balls vs. the shift hit under 220 feet. Either way, Minnesota is paying him to hit the ball hard and over the wall.
Pitch Clock
Ok, so we covered how the league wants to encourage more action on the field. But what about the JCC’s aim to improve pace of play? Here’s where things get interesting. We have heard the stories of how automatic ball-strike systems (AKA “robot umps”), an ABS challenge system and the pitch clock were on their way to the big leagues. While the prior two have not been officially proposed as a formal rule change as of the 2023 season, the latter is here to give what the fans want, and that’s games with better pace, according to MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred. So, what is a pitch timer, and how will it affect our fantasy pitchers?
Pitch Timer: There will be a 30-second timer between batters. Between pitches, there will be a 15-second timer with the bases empty and a 20-second timer with runners on base. This is more time than what was allotted in MiLB for the 2022 season (14 seconds w/ bases empty, 18 (AA & ↓) / 19 (AAA) seconds w/ runners on).
Effects: In MiLB, the average time of game reduces by about 26 minutes. Also, stolen-base attempts rise (due to limits on throws to first base) from 2.23 in 2019 (68% success rate) to 2.83 in 2022 (77% success rate). This is another feather in the aim for increased action.
Stipulations:
- Pitcher delivery must occur before timer expires. If not, automatic ball for the hitter.
- Hitters who violate the timer receive an automatic strike. Also, hitter must be in the box by the eight-second mark, or they get a strike (nine-second mark in MiLB).
- The timer resets if the pitcher attempts a pickoff or steps off the rubber (disengagements). They have a limit of two per PA, which resets with runner advancement during a PA (this differs from MiLB). The third attempt better get the runner out, or else he advances one base. Mound visits, injuries and timeouts do not count as disengagements.
Our fantasy arms’ Pitch Tempo (PT) will be key to navigating the pitch timer. PT “measures the median time between pitches (in other words, pitch release to pitch release). Only pitches that follow a take (called strike or called ball) and are thrown to the same batter are considered for this metric. However, before we compare this to the pitch timer, please note that this is not measuring the same thing. The pitch timer starts when the pitcher receives the return throw from the catcher and ends once the pitcher starts his delivery. Whereas with PT, the clock starts as soon as the pitcher releases the previous pitch and ends when the pitcher releases the next pitch. The pitch-timer equivalent is about six seconds less: 1.5 seconds to release the pitch, 0.5 seconds for pitcher-to-catcher and 4.0 seconds for catcher-back-to-pitcher.
However, to succeed in one criterion, the pitcher must succeed in the other. Below, you will find several of our fantasy pitching targets, and they appear in order of fastest to slowest pitch-timer equivalent. From this data, once again compliments of Baseball Savant, we can easily see who is in trouble and who the pitch timer will serve well. Also, by clicking this link, you can oscillate between bases empty and runners on base. Pitchers with superior pick-off moves will also have yet another advantage.
Bigger Bases
Look, you’re tired, and I’m tired. So let’s keep this section short and sweet, shall we?
But do you know who else is going to be tired? Would-be base stealers and catchers trying to gun them down because steals are going to go up this season. We already discussed how the aforementioned pitch timer affects stolen-base attempts and success due to limits on pickoff attempts. However, the fun doesn’t end there!
This season the bases, which were previously 15 inches square, will now be 18 inches square (not including home plate, which remains the same). This creates a 4 1/2-inch reduction in the distance between first and second base and between second and third base. That’s huge! Home to first and third to home reduces by 3 inches. We are likely to see a stolen-base attempt/success rate closer to the 2.83/77% rates from the minors. Additionally, the bigger bags will likely reduce oversliding. Nothing is worse than when our fantasy star swipes a bag with ease only to be out after losing contact with the bag while sliding through it!
While the bigger bases will have an “unintentional” effect on stolen bases, the third aim of the JCC is improving player safety. And that’s the primary goal here. This change gives players more room to operate and avoid collisions. This is especially important at first base, where fielders have an extra three-inch advantage to stay out of harm’s way from the baserunner while receiving throws. If our fantasy players remain healthier throughout the season, we reap more production.
Guys like Brandon Nimmo, who stated this offseason he wishes to make a more concerted effort to thieve more bags, will have more of an advantage this year due to disengagement limits and bigger bases. Maybe we won’t have to search as long and hard for stolen bases this season. That’s what MLB said!
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