How to Track Your Results and Refine Your Process to Maximize Profits One of the biggest differences I see between recreational and profitable bettors is tracking results and refining your process based on those results. As someone who does this for a living, I have built up a wealth of knowledge and data over the
Evergreen
Paulie’s Gambling Education Series, pt. 3: Tilt
One of the biggest drains on bankrolls is tilting. We all have done it. We go on a cold streak and keep chasing and chasing and before you know it, we have either blown through our bankroll or have such a small bankroll now that our bet sizes are so small that we can’t ever
Paulie’s Gambling Education Series, pt. 5: Teasers
What is a teaser? A teaser is a parlay in which you get additional points added to your games. Here is a basic example: GB is -8 over DET and NE is -12.5 against MIA. You can do a 2 team 6 point teaser at -120. You now have a parlay of GB -2 over
How to Bet NCAA Conference Tournaments
Paulie’s Gambling Education Series, pt. 4: Live Betting
We all love watching sports and cheering for teams who we have bet on. Sure, betting on a game before it starts is great and all, but don’t you sometimes think “I know this team is gonna come back and win this game”? Well, that’s exactly what live betting is for. Live betting can be one
Paulie’s Gambling Education Series, pt. 6: Parlays & Round Robins
What is a “parlay”? A parlay is a combination of bets that only pays out if all bets are won. Here is an example: You bet $40 on Chiefs -7 parlayed with Patriots -3.5 and Packers -4. The payout for this wager is +600 meaning you profit $240 if you win the bet. In order
Kelly Criterion: How to Maximize Your Gains & Minimize Your Losses
If you knew you would win 100% of your bets, you would be a fool not to bet your entire bankroll on each bet. This would maximize your return and, because you knew 100% of your bets would win, you would have 0% risk of going bust. If you knew you had 0% chance of
Paulie’s Gambling Education Guide, pt. 1: Habits of a Profitable Bettor
Set A Bankroll Determining a set amount as a bankroll is a great first step into gambling with the intention of profit. There are many ways you can define a bankroll: A “total” bankroll number 1 bankroll for each sport you bet (what a large number of professional gamblers do) A monthly or weekly bankroll
Paulie’s Gambling Education Series, pt. 9: “Middle” Bets
What is a “middle”? A middle is a situation where you can win 2 bets that are placed on the opposite side of each other. Middles are most often found in the NBA and the NFL. Here is a basic example: Let’s suppose we take the Celtics at -2.5 against the Raptors. The line later
Baseball Betting, 101: Understanding MLB Odds
I think one of the single biggest misunderstandings that the DFS community and the general public has is where betting odds come from and how they are shaped. To be clear: THEY DO NOT COME FROM VEGAS! To understand betting odds it is important to understand the life cycle of a line. Life Cycle of
Paulie’s Gambling Education Series, pt. 7: Bankroll Management
One of the biggest keys to being a successful bettor is bankroll management. There are three ways that you can define a “bankroll”: Casual Bettor: A monthly or weekly bankroll This person sets aside a certain amount that they are willing to lose in a given timeframe. Example: $100 per week set aside for betting.
Baseball Betting, 101: +EV MLB Betting
Possibly the most overused statement in life right now is declaring something to be +/-EV. For Example: “Eating that spicy fish sauce was -EV for my ass,” meaning said ass is not doing so well because of the spicy fish sauce. But in reality, the term only loosely fits the situation. Let’s break down what
Paulie’s Gambling Education Series, pt. 8: Tips to Improve Profit
One of the questions I get most often from people is “What can I do to make myself more profitable?” Well, here are 4 key items to look at in order to reach the goal we all want……make more $$$$$. Have access to multiple books Having access to more than one book is paramount to
Baseball Betting, 101: Types of Bets
Money Line Unlike NBA and NFL where bettors typically wager against-the-spread (ATS), MLB bettors primarily rely on moneyline (ML) wagers. The moneyline in MLB is usually a dime line, which in general, is the lowest vigorish of all the major sports. What a dime line means is if a team is -140, the dog would
Intro to Golf Betting, pt. 1
With the 2019 PGA Tour season starting this week, I wanted to introduce everyone to golf betting. I want you to be able to learn what you are betting, have fun and of course make money!!!! In this two part series, I’m going to walk you through: Part 1 Basic Golf Terminology/Questions/Vocab Why bet on
Intro to Golf Betting, pt. 2
If you missed Part 1 of the series, check it out! Now that you have a basic understanding of golf betting from Part I, let’s dig into it a bit deeper here in Part II by taking a look at: Overview of my golf betting method Description of my golf betting structure Timing of bets
Draft Age, Draft Position and RB Fantasy Production
Previously, I wrote how the age of RBs when they were drafted affected their future fantasy success. That piece was a follow-up on Russell Clay’s interesting article on running back and wide receiver draft position and the “probability“1 of fantasy success. He defined RB “success” as over 1000 yards from scrimmage (YFS). Now, I’m going
Will the Draft Help a Team’s Fantasy Defense?
We’re about a month out from the NFL draft. Most fantasy eyes are on what teams will do in upgrading their offensive skill positions or even their offensive lines. But what about the effect on fantasy team defenses of drafting players on that side of the ball? Regular readers will know I’ve written several articles
Draft Age and RB Fantasy Production
Russell Clay has an interesting article on running back and wide receiver draft position and the “probability“1 of fantasy success. He defines “success” as over 1000 yards from scrimmage (YFS). I took his success metric and methodology and applied it to the age of RBs when they were drafted2 to see if that was also
QB & TE Probability Charts
One of the biggest advantages in fantasy football is being able to recognize the NFL controls all the chess pieces. Once that’s accepted, there’s a lot of information that can be mined. When the regular season comes to a close, there’s always an urge to determine new trends and ideas based on what happened in
