If you missed Part 1 of the series, check it out!
Now that you have a basic understanding of golf betting from Part I, let’s dig into it a bit deeper here in Part II by taking a look at:
- Overview of my golf betting method
- Description of my golf betting structure
- Timing of bets
- What info do I post for each bet?
- FAQ
Overview of My Golf Betting Method
- Background to my system:
- I have over 5 years worth of my personal betting data tracked. I look at this at the beginning of each year to refine my system to provide the largest profit while providing consistent bankroll growth. In my 33 weeks working at Elite Sports Betting in 2018, we profited a total of 90 units with a 9.4% average ROI per week. We had 11 weeks where we won 10+ units and only 1 week where we lost 10+ units. So I’m all about bankroll growth. With my system, you will see spiked weeks as we dabble in some longshot plays but the overall system is built to minimize risk and make sure that we walk away with some nice profit by the end of the year.
- How do I determine what to bet?
- Each week I make my own lines for outright, top 10/20 and HTH matchups. I put an insane amount of time and effort into determining these lines. I eat, sleep and breathe golf. I then bet where I see value.
- How much do we bet each week?
- I have refined my betting process so that we bet a certain amount on each type of bet in order to provide the best returns yet attempt to minimize variance. In a typical week, we will have about 35 units in play (higher for weeks such as the Masters or US Open). So we essentially have 35% of our golf bankroll in play each week. This may sound like a lot but it is not when you consider that most of these bets are 1 unit or less. You can think of each week as a stock portfolio consisting of some riskier and some conservative investments with the goal of long term growth.
- Here is how a typical week is structured:
- PGA Outrights 2.5 units
- Top 10/20 8 units
- FRL 1 unit
- PGA Tournament HTH Matchups 12 units
- PGA Round by Round HTH Matchups 8.5 units
- Other bets 3 units
Description of My Betting Structure
- Outrights: We want to structure each bet such that we profit 25 units on a bet if that player wins. Most weeks we will invest around 2.5 units before the event starts on outrights. If value arises, we may add additional players after a round. This is structured such that we only need to hit a winner approximately every 10-11 weeks to break even. Any additional winners or hedges (such as extracting value from a player near the lead on Sunday) are pure profit.
- Top 10’s/Top 20’s: We want to structure each bet such that we profit 2 units on a bet if that player finishes in the top 10 or top 20. A typical week would consist of a small pool of players for a total investment of 8 units. This is structured such that if we have one or two players finish in the top 10 or top 20 we are about even for the week and anything after that is pure profit. The number of players and total investment can vary by week based on how much value I see in the lines.
- First Round Leader (FRL): We want to structure each bet such that we profit 10 units on a bet if that player leads after the first round. Most weeks we will invest around 1 unit before the event starts on first-round leaders. This is structured such that we only need to hit an outright first-round leader approximately every 10-11 weeks to break even. Note: dead heat rules apply for FRL bets meaning ties split the payout.
- Tournament HTH Matchups: We will be betting varying amounts on matchups based on how much value there is. Our maximum bet is to win 4 units, which is an extremely rare occurrence (only twice all of 2018). A very large portion of the bets will be to win 1 unit or less. A typical week consists of about 12 units in these type of bets.
- Round-by-Round HTH Matchups: The number and amounts of these bets are based solely on how much value I see. Sometimes we may have one matchup and other times we may have 6 matchups. Our maximum bet is to win 3 units but this will happen very rarely (only 3 times in 2018). Most bets are less than or equal to 1 unit.
- Parlays: Since all of these HTH matchups I provide have positive expected value, I’m ok with you guys doing small parlays in addition to playing the plays by themselves if your book allows. We have had a few days/weeks of sweeping matchups which resulted in massive parlays hitting.
- Additional Bets: For those who use DK Sportsbook, I provide additional content/bets each week as they provide different betting options than the industry standard that is present at nearly all other sportsbooks. I also provide picks for Monkey Knife Fight (MKF) which is a prop betting site that is legal in a large portion of states. Both DK and MKF are tracked separately from our standard bets.
Timing of Bets
- PGA Outrights: Monday
- PGA Top 10/Top 20/Tournament HTH Matchups/FRL: Tuesday
- PGA Round 1 HTH Matchups: Wednesday
- PGA Rounds 2/3/4 HTH Matchups: Super late evening after completion of previous round (often around 11PM CST). Most of the plays for rounds 3 and round 4 will be on players who won’t start until late morning or early afternoon. So most times you can put those bets in that morning without an issue.
- DK Sportsbook: Tuesday/Wednesday (and ongoing throughout event for single round HTH matchups)
- Monkey Knife Fight: Wednesday
What info do I post for each bet?
- A typical bet would look like this from me:
- Outright
- Woodland +5000 (.5 for 25) True Line +3500
- Translation: Bet Woodland at 50-1. Bet 0.5 units to profit 25 units. I have Woodland at 35-1 in the lines I made. This is what I believe the actual odds are.
- Tournament HTH
- Thomas -120 over Woods (.6 for .5) True Line -170
- Translation: Take Thomas at -120 over Woods. Bet 0.6 units to profit 0.5 units. I have this matchup at -170. The “True Line” should help you determine if a bet should still be made or possibly scaled down if the line has moved since posting.
- I often will also post notes and details about why we are making bets especially if they are larger bets.
- Outright
FAQ
- What sites do your lines in the betting article come from?
- Top 10/20 come from Mybookie.
- Outrights, HTH, FRL all typically come from MyBookie or 5Dimes (available on both sites). The same HTH matchups are posted on about 90% of books. Sometimes books such as Bovada or DraftKings post different sets of HTHs. I will provide advice on DK Sportsbook specific bets each week as well.
- What are the best bets in terms of value?
- In my opinion, the best value each week lies in tournament long HTH matchups.
- Oftentimes, we can find a matchup where we differ with the book in terms of valuing a player’s ability. The best matchups are when we see a player undervalued up against a player who we see is overvalued. This is where we may find the line to be off by a large amount.
- I prefer tournament long HTHs as we have 4 rounds to win. This reduces the variance. If I think we have an edge, I want the outcome to be contested over the longest period possible.
- In my opinion, the best value each week lies in tournament long HTH matchups.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to reach out to me in any of the Elite Sports Betting chat rooms or Twitter @friedeggpaulie