One of the biggest drains on bankrolls is tilting. We all have done it. We go on a cold streak and keep chasing and chasing and before you know it, we have either blown through our bankroll or have such a small bankroll now that our bet sizes are so small that we can’t ever have a chance to let the variance smooth out and let our bankroll grow back to what it was.
I’m not here to tell you to stop tilting, that’s damn near impossible. I’m here to share with you some wisdom to lessen the negative effects of any tilting that may occur. Most people don’t learn about tilting until they have experienced a massive losing streak. Ask Tommy or Rob and they will tell you all kinds of stories in the past of losing streaks and extreme hot streaks on the other end. Variance is a part of betting. How we handle the adversity is what allows us to be profitable over the long term.
The best gamblers in the world may hit around 60% of their bets, which leaves a ton of variance in results. Many people expect to win every bet and that’s just not possible. To illustrate this:
- Take a piece of paper and rip it into 5 equal pieces and write “Win” on 3 of them and “Lose” on the other 2.
- Now toss those in a hat and pull out a piece of paper 20 times.
- You will see varying results in the Win Loss record even when you think 60% is a massive edge. I did this 5 times and got the following results: 11-9, 16-4, 12-8, 5-15, 14-6. This yields an overall record of 58-42 which is pretty close to our expected result of 60%.
You can see some massive swings in the results of the 20 game samples. The same is true when we are betting games even with this 60% edge. How we handle adversity can be the determining factor as to whether we go broke or make a profit for the year.
Tips to Handle Adversity & Minimize Tilting
- If you have extreme anger or rage after you lose a bet you are most likely betting too high of a percent of bankroll or are betting beyond your means. You probably need to scale down your unit size or take some time off to refresh your mind.
- You should never have more than 5% of your bankroll tied up in one single game/bet. I see so many people often double, triple and quadruple down when their bet is losing.
- If you have an adverse or mind boggling result, it’s ok to take a step back and take some time off (whether that be the rest of the night or maybe even a couple days). Come back to betting when your mind is clear and focused.
- Example: The Raptors, who are one of the best teams in the NBA and undefeated at home, lost to the Pelicans on Monday. The Pelicans were missing 2 of their 4 best players and struggle mightily on the road. We saw fairly sizeable line movement on the ML in our direction so we definitely had “value”. This final result was very surprising to me but that happens in sports betting. To avoid tilting, I took the rest of the night off from live betting and regained focus the next night. I’ve learned my lesson over the years and I know I am most profitable when my mind is clear and focused.
- Do not bet on a game just for the sake of trying to win back your money from another loss.
- Have a set system in place and try to follow it. If you feel the need to “chase”, pull away and stop betting for the night.
- Realize the value of money that you are betting
- Many people just see a number when they make a bet and don’t realize what that amount means until they lose. If you are struggling with tilting (especially with live betting), try this for a night:
- Physically have the cash on hand that you want to bet. Physically put cash aside for each bet that you make. When you can actually feel the cash in your hand, you are less likely to tilt and keep chasing to grow your account balance back up. You visually see wins and losses and it makes you cherish your bankroll more.
- Many people just see a number when they make a bet and don’t realize what that amount means until they lose. If you are struggling with tilting (especially with live betting), try this for a night:
- Try not to gamble while extremely drunk
- Yes, I know people like to drink and watch sports. But try to figure out a way to limit your bets if you are piss ass drunk (consider a difficult password for your account that you may not be able to type out if super drunk).
- The last thing you want to do is wake up the next morning hungover and see that you also blew through your bankroll.