MLB Weekly Preview: 7/24 – 7/30

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

Scroll right to the part of the MLB Weekly Preview you need in just one click!
Below, you will find an interactive table of contents. Simply click on the section of the article & boom.. presto… alakazam.
Check back daily for updates!!!

As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover, drop a line in our 24/7 MLB Discord chat or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: By now, we have a clear picture of who just had a crazy first half and who may be putting together a season for the ages. Guys like Masataka Yoshida have gone from rookies with uncertain upside to one of the best pure hitters in baseball. You’re welcome.

A majority of teams play six games this week, with only four teams playing seven (2 AL / 2 NL). To make matters more complicated, six teams will only have five games on the docket. With quite a few five-game weeks for teams, it is imperative to identify six gamers in good situations (see Targets below). 

Five-Game Week: NYY (NYM – 2, @BAL – 3), BOS (ATL – 2, @SFG – 3), TBR (MIA – 2, @HOU – 3), OAK (@SFG – 2, @COL – 3), MIA (@TBR – 2, DET – 3), ATL (@BOS – 2, MIL – 3)

A Few Areas to Target

This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

Hells Bells
Before we dive into some intriguing six-game weeks, this is my favorite team with seven games. Alert: Hot Offense! Cleveland (KCR – 3, @CHW – 4) has a distinct advantage not only due to the volume of games but the favorable matchups that come with the volume. More of this later. Having just come off a series against Pittsburgh, where they scored 26 runs in three games, Cleveland looks to continue that offensive onslaught. The Pale Hose poses a challenge on the mound, but analytics show they’re simply middle of the pack. KC’s staff can be demolished.

Since the beginning of July, Josh Naylor has been en fuego. In 13 contests, he’s hitting .388 with four doubles, five home runs and 17 RBI. He’s got an 11.6% barrel rate and a 44.2% hard-hit rate this month. He hits for a good average against righties and lefties but has much more power against righties. Fortunately, the Guardians will see six starting righties on the mound. The lone lefty is Ryan Yarborough, so Naylor could feast off the pen in that game (5.15 Bullpen ERA, third worst). His fellow Josh, Josh Bell (36% rostered in Yahoo, 56% in ESPN, 71% in Fantrax Dynasty), makes much more contact for a higher batting average in the split. In July, he’s been making terrific contact with a 94.5 mph average exit velocity (aEV), 14% barrel rate and 51.2% hard-hit rate.  

It’s Been a Minute
We haven’t discussed Colorado for a while, but there’s a reason why we keep bats like Ryan McMahon, Ezequiel Tovar (39% Yahoo, 11% ESPN, 80% Fantrax) and Jurickson Profar (8% Yahoo, 9% ESPN, 46% Fantrax) around. And it’s for weeks like this that may go over our opponents’ heads (@WSH – 3, OAK – 3). They start the week with a three-game home series against the lowly Nationals, with Patrick Corbin, Trevor Williams, and Jake Irvin taking the bump. The Statcast Park Factor for Nationals Park is tied for 10^th with some good hitters’ arenas. Coors Field continues to pace the field minus the International stadiums below in Important Park Factors. At home, the Rockies have the sixth-best batting average (.268) and eighth-best OPS (.767). The A’s will be busy making realtor appointments in Las Vegas.

The Rockies have a fairly even split of two lefty starters to four righties, which makes playing the splits more challenging in Weekly-lock Leagues. But switch-hitters Profar and Tovar could care less, and C.J. Cron will eat. McMahon makes for a better daily play, as does Nolan Jones (22% Yahoo, 6% ESPN, 59% Fantrax). Jones has been a bit of a platoon player as of late, but the power is real. Since the All-Star break, he’s homered twice and already has multiple home runs over 470 feet this season. The hardest thing for Jones has been consistently hitting. What better way to jumpstart that than three games at home and a series against the terrible Oakland pitching staff? He may sit against left-handers Corbin and JP Sears, but otherwise, he’ll be raking.

Quick Hitters…

• TOR (@LAD – 3, LAA – 3): The Jays have California on their minds this week, albeit they play host for half of it. The SPFs for Dodger Stadium and Rogers Centre hover around league average, but Dodger Stadium has a 131 HR park factor, and their home park plays up for two-baggers (see below). Furthermore, the pitching matchups will be better than you think, with arms like Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Shohei Ohtani not quite pitching like themselves. 
• MIN (SEA – 3, @KCR – 3; 1 L, 5 R): Great SPFs with Target Field at 101 (t-8^th) and Kauffman Stadium holding firm at 103 (t-6^th). 
• SEA (@MIN – 3, @ARI – 3; 1 L, 5 R): The M’s break free of T-Mobile Park (29^th in SPF) for some greener pastures in hitting. Their bats get a positive park shift to Target Field and Chase Field (100, t-10^th), with the latter being an extra-base hit haven! I like Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernandez and José Caballero (1% Yahoo, <1% ESPN, 14% Fantrax) to take advantage. Caballero is interesting in deep leagues or as a DFS punt while his playing time is rising over a weaksauce Kolten Wong. 
• STL (@ARI – 3, CHC – 4; 2* L / 5 R): Chase Field is a nice hitters’ park, and home cooking has been delish at Busch Stadium (106 SPF, 3^rd). *Drew Smyly could once again follow an opener.
• MIL (CIN – 3, @ATL – 3; 1 L / 5 R): American Family Field Miller Park may have a below-average 98 SPF (t-17^th), but the HR factor is much more than average (111). Meanwhile, Truist Park is rockin’ a 104 SPF, good for fifth in the league (122 HR). Making Brewers & Braves stars more appealing is the forecast for Atlanta, Georgia – mid-90s temps with high humidity. You do the math.
• CHC (@CHW – 2, @STL – 4; 2 L / 4 R): See Busch Stadium. Also, Guaranteed Rate Field has a 110 HR factor.

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
The Detroit Tigers (SFG – 1, LAA – 3, @MIA – 3; 3 L / 4 R) continue to be our stream buddies. It’s like fuck buddies, but only for fantasy. Monday, July 24, is a makeup game for Detroit from April 16 against the Giants at 1:10 pm to start our week. Spencer Torkelson (31% Yahoo, 14% ESPN, 89% Fantrax) is another player who’s turned on the jets since the calendar turned to July. In 17 games, he has hit 8 XBH with a .224 ISO and .322 wOBA. For Daily H2H Leagues, I’m a big fan of streaming Javi Báez (RHH, 38% Yahoo, 13% ESPN, 69% Fantrax) and Kerry Carpenter (LHH, 12% Yahoo, 4% ESPN, 42% Fantrax) in your utility spots. Over the last 14 days, Javi is looking like his Cubs days, and Carpenter is finally living up to expectations. 

Another option is WSH (COL – 3, @NYM – 4; 1 L / 6 R). Weak SPFs, but the volume of games and some meaty pitching matchups make streaming guys like Jeimer Candelario (41% Yahoo, 17% ESPN, 78% Fantrax), Luis Garcia (17% Yahoo, 13% ESPN, 64% Fantrax) and Joey Meneses (53% Yahoo, 21% ESPN, 77% Fantrax) viable. 

By the way, San Fran batters may see up to five left-handers this week! WILLLLLLMER!!!

Places to Avoid

Not only do the Red Sox draw short at five games, but they face two of the best teams in baseball. Then you get Charlie Morton and Spencer Strider to begin your week. Listen, it’s never easy to bench guys like Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo or the aforementioned Yoshida. The Sox Offense has been raging since the Fourth of July, but don’t get sucked in trying to capitalize. More fringe guys like Jarren Duran and Adam Duvall definitely belong on your fantasy benches this week. Duran has 11 XBH in 14 July games… with none since the All-Star break. Since returning from the IL on 6/9, Duvall has hit just .189 with nine XBH and a 37% strikeout rate in 29 games. He will also see all right-hand starters this week, so no lefty matchups to exploit even in Daily Leagues.

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 7/22/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers compiled an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Luis Castillo⁷ (@MIN, @ARI)
2. Blake Snell¹⁶ (PIT, TEX)
3. Tyler Glasnow²¹ (MIA, @HOU) ⬅️ UPDATE: Zack Littell was announced late Sat. night as the starting pitcher for Sun. He’ll throw a few innings before handing things off to the bullpen as he stretches out. The move also gives time for Eflin to get right and Glasnow to rest.
4. José Berríos²³ (@LAD, LAA)
5. Merrill Kelly²⁶ (STL, SEA) ⬅️ UPDATE: Kelly switches spots with Ryne Nelson. Good sign for his health!
6. Justin Verlander²⁸ (@NYY, WSH)
7. Yu Darvish²⁹ (PIT, TEX)
8. Charlie Morton³⁴ (@BOS, MIL) ⬅️ UPDATE: AJ Smith-Shawver will be recalled & make a spot start on 7/30 to keep the rotation at five until Max Fried is ready.
9. Nathan Eovaldi⁴⁰ (@HOU, @SDP) ⬅️ UPDATE: With his recent dip in velo, TEX opts to skip EO’s first start to give him rest. Jon Gray slides up to pitch on 7/24 (great news per his medicals!). Yerry Rodriguez will open a bullpen game on 7/25 with either Cody Bradford or Owen White pitching in bulk.
10. Eduardo Rodriguez⁴³ (LAA, @MIA) ⬅️ UPDATE: With the 7/26 PPD, DET will opt for a spot start on 7/29 rather than next week to give ERod a breather. The spot starter could be Joey Wentz, who since his demotion 6/29 has posted a 4.00 ERA with 26 strikeouts to nine walks in 18 IP for the Toledo Mud Hens. Kinda meh stuff but could be sneaky against MIA if called up.
11. Kenta Maeda⁵³ (SEA, @KCR)

Other Options: Tarik Skubal⁷⁹ (SFG, @MIA), Kyle Hendricks⁸⁴ (@CHW, @STL), Logan Allen⁸⁷ & Aaron Civale¹¹⁵ (KCR, @CHW), Dean Kremer⁸⁹ (@PHI, NYY), Michael Kopech⁹³ (CHC, CLE), Rich Hill¹¹³ (@SDP, PHI)

Danger Zone: Trevor Williams¹²³ & Patrick Corbin^NR (COL, @NYM), Ryne Nelson¹²⁶ (STL, SEA)*, Cristopher Sánchez^NR (BAL, @PIT) POV SPECIAL, Graham Ashcraft^NR (@MIL, @LAD), Ross Stripling^NR (@DET, BOS), Michael Grove^NR (TOR, CIN), Brandon Bielak^NR (TEX, TBR), Ryan Yarbrough^NR (@CLE, MIN), Colin Rea^NR (CIN, @ATL*), Quinn Priester^NR (@SDP, PHI*), Adam Wainwright^NR & Steven Matz^NR (@ARI, CHC)*

*Desperate times call for Nelson measures. I don’t hate him this week. Hill does get two starts but with Bido getting skipped. Also, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Wainwright (shoulder) will be activated from the 15-day IL to start Monday’s game against the Diamondbacks in Arizona, John Denton of MLB.com reports.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JULY 24 – 30

“You Built a Time Machine Out of a Delorean!”

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Friday, July 28 – 7:10 PM ET
MacKenzie Gore vs. Max Scherzer
Past?? vs. Present??

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

Corey Seager, Rangers – 10-day IL, RIght Thumb Sprain

Seager hits the 10-day IL with a right thumb sprain, a day after jamming his thumb sliding into second base on a double in the eighth inning of Friday night’s 11-5 loss to the Dodgers. A real shame, as Seager was having that elusive healthy season we have been waiting for and the extreme offensive production we expected. His .350/.413/.631 slash line represents career highs in all three categories! Hopefully, a minimal stay on the IL, and Ezequiel Duran is expected to be the primary shortstop until Seager returns.

J.D. Martinez, Dodgers – DTD, Left Hamstring Tightness

Martinez was a last-minute scratch from the starting lineup for the Dodgers’ series finale against the Rangers. After the game, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Martinez “won’t be in the lineup Monday against the Blue Jays, but the slugger is expected to return to action Tuesday,” Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports.

Gabriel Moreno, D-backs – 10-day IL, Left Shoulder Inflammation

The D-backs placed Moreno on the 10-day injured list after he was scratched from the starting lineup on Saturday.

Medical Updates…

• Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays: After four rehab starts, Ryu will join the team on 7/24 in LA ahead of his activation, according to MLB’s Keegan Matheson. While not 100% certain, Ryu could join a six-man rotation when active. The Jays are in the midst of 26 games in 27 days and will need the support a six-man provides. After 8/13, a decision will be made on Alek Manoah and the staff. However, if the Jays decide to delay six-man plans with their lone off day during this busy stretch coming this week (7/27), José Berríos²³ (@LAD, LAA) would garner another start. UPDATE: Blue Jays manager John Schneider must have not been fully complete in his eye test of Ryu, as he will complete more pen sessions and is now expected back next week (Week 19). Berríos does get two starts.
• Merrill Kelly, D-backs: Kelly required one more rehab start on 7/20 at the Arizona Complex league as he finishes his build-up. He should return on 7/26 vs. STL.
• Jon Gray, Rangers: Gray (left shin bruise) should make his next start after taking a comebacker off his leg. X-rays were negative, and the 31-year-old righty doesn’t expect a problem.
• Yordan Alvarez, Astros: Manager Dusty Baker said it’s a “possibility” that Alvarez (right oblique strain) could return from the IL on Monday when the Astros open a nine-game homestand against the Rangers.
• Gavin Williams, Guardians: Williams was pulled from his last outing after alerting his coaching staff that he was starting to develop a blister on one of the fingers on his throwing hand. Because he was pulled quickly and immediately received treatment, the Guardians believe he’ll be able to avoid developing a full blister. He should be able to get back on the rubber for his next start against the Royals.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Cristopher Sánchez^NR, LH PHI (BAL, @PIT; 14% rostered in Yahoo, 3% in ESPN, 33% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Under the radar, Sanchez is having a solid season since joining the Phillies’ rotation, throwing 35.1 innings (7 GS) with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. I especially enjoy the 30 strikeouts to six walks. The five home runs do stand out negatively (1.27 HR/9), but with a 30.1% fly-ball rate, his HR/FB is 16.1%, and any hard contact (42.3% hard-hit rate) is hit more on the ground (54.4% ground-ball rate). Consequently, his 3.94 xERA, 3.94 FIP, 3.52 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA indicate his ERA is legit. He is somewhat lucky with a .263 BABIP, thus the lack of rank and presence of risk. 

However, I like the matchups this week for Cristopher without an “H.” He has the Orioles, who are mediocre versus lefties, and the Pirates, who are bad against them. Despite being somewhat unknown, he is the perfect two-start streamer in many leagues.

Honorable Mention: Dean Kremer⁸⁹, RH BAL (@PHI, NYY; 43% Yahoo, 18% ESPN, 80% Fantrax) – Kremer is on a nice roll, but there is risk going into Philly. However, between Citizens Bank Park playing down to hitters this year with a poor 96 SPF and the Phils’ recent offensive ups and downs, I’m willing to bank on Kremer. Also, a home tilt with the Yankees is a nice consolation prize. Wow, I never thought I’d type that sentence, especially in Camden Yards. Other previous names to stream: Logan Allen⁸⁷, LH CLE & Aaron Civale¹¹⁵, RH CLE (KCR, @CHW – LA: 27% Yahoo, 10% ESPN, 63% Fantrax; AC: 55% Yahoo, 24% ESPN, 84% Fantrax)

One-Start Pitcher: Tanner Bibee⁶², RH CLE (@CHW; 62% Yahoo, 36% ESPN, 77% Fantrax) – “All the little chicks with their crimson lips go ‘Cleveland rocks, Cleveland rocks!’” Yeah, Drew Carey had a little show before The Price Is Right for all you youngsters reading the column every week. Anyway, Cleveland does rock this week with tasty matchups for their pitchers. Bibee has a 3.04 ERA (3.39 xERA, 3.53 FIP – 4.19 SIERA, 4.29 xFIP). Earlier in the season, the WHIP was a problem. However, it currently sits at 1.19, and in the last month, he has a 1.15 WHIP. When you watch Bibee pitch, you see someone adapting to the level. The last time he pitched over 70 innings at one minor league level was Double-A in 2022, where he had a 0.88 WHIP. When he is keeping runners off base, good results happen.

The White Sox do not get on base. Since 6/1, their wOBA is .295 (25^th in MLB). 

If Bibee is gone, you can deep-dive with a former top prospect of Detroit, Matt Manning¹²⁷, RH (@MIALAA; 26% Yahoo, 12% ESPN, 57% Fantrax). He’s a favorite of mine and has been pitching well with a 3.19 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 36.2 IP (7 GS). However, according to the underlying stats, he’s been lucky (4.65 FIP and 5.49 xFIP). He hasn’t been a fantastic strikeout pitcher (17.1% K rate, 6.14 K/9), and he walks too many guys (8.2% BB rate, 2.95 BB/9). But, if you absolutely MUST stream someone to get innings (i.e., H2H Leagues), Miami is 24^th in runs scored in the last two weeks and tied for 23^rd on the season. 

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!