MLB Weekly Preview: 7/17 – 7/23

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: LAD shifts to 2 L / 4 R and TBR shifts to 7 RHP with the Orioles promotion of Grayson Rodriguez (see Two-Start SPs below).

NOTES: Ah, it’s good to be back. If you didn’t receive word in our Discord chat or on Twitter, I was more needed for backend editorial stuff with our NFL Draft Guide firing on all cylinders. Apologies to all of our regular weekly readers who were wondering where the hell I was for the last week before the break. I’m also the managing editor here at Fantasy Guru, and if you are going to make it in this business, wearing multiple hats is required. I never do a preview for the 3-4 games coming out of the break because pitching matchups are a complete crap shoot. Teams can go multiple ways, including starting backend SPs to line up their rotations, unlike the short opening week of the season. However, I felt guilty AF leaving you for the last week before the break. And for that, I’m truly sorry.

In past years, I rode the wave of no sleep to get things done – both for the draft guide and the article – but that’s where I had another obstacle. This year I’ve been battling some health issues. If you have followed my column over the years, you know I’m 100% all about full transparency. I know no other way than to be fully authentic in my writing and overall work. However, when it comes to health, I always internalize this stuff. As a ball player and in my post-playing days working as a special educator, I’ve had seven concussions. Well, one came from a drunken tailgate of a Rutgers football game, but that’s a story for another day. As a result, I have experienced episodes of intense vertigo & light-headedness. In 2015, I even passed out mid-conversation, falling to the floor and losing consciousness for several seconds, Tony Soprano style. 

Well, after seeing symptoms return, especially increased dizziness after standing up from my desk and working at my computer for only 2-3 hours, I had another Soprano incident. So, I’m hitting this thing from all angles! Everything from MRI & EEG with my neurologist, seeing if my brain is still there and how it’s doing, to tests for Afib because I’m a dumb-ass smoker (or was, one cigarette since 7/1!). The great news is an ultrasound showed my carotid arteries are clear. Hoping it’s just a low blood pressure issue, but that may be wishful thinking. Are there any doctors in the house? I’m willing to hear all theories. I’ve been feeling better with some meds. My old ass is also learning how to slow it down when I need to and rise gradually, lol. Didn’t mean to take up so much space, but I felt an explanation was necessary. 

But again, it’s good to be back from the break. We have 11 lucky teams who play seven games this week, while 18 play six contests. Crunch time is upon us, so let’s lock in by getting on top of our matchups and player trends!

Five-Game Week: COL (HOU – 2, @MIA – 3) They don’t even get five at Coors Field! #MUSTSIT

A Few Areas to Target

This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

Great American Small Park
Cincy (SFG – 4, ARI – 3) is second in baseball with 198 runs and third in home runs with 55 since the beginning of June. Their .795 OPS is third in baseball during that time. We haven’t seen it so far coming out of the All-Star Break, but they benefit from remaining at home straight through to 7/24. And we know how much of a hitter-friendly paradise Great American Ball Park is. So let’s pause while we pour one out for the beleaguered Cincy pitching staff. . .

GABP is fifth in Statcast Park Factor with a 105 mark (129 HR, 111 3B, 110 R). Rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz continues to raise these numbers and stands to benefit. EDLC has a .423 wOBA vs. RHP and .457 Home wOBA. Additionally, rookies Spencer Steer and Matt McLain (79% rostered in Yahoo, 40% in ESPN, 79% in Fantrax Dynasty) will rake too. Both should be utilized where available. 

When we last left our RedLegs, Joey Votto (37% Yahoo, 15% ESPN, 63% Fantrax) was busy making up for lost time with a .409/.458/1.045 slash and six extra-base hits, including four home runs and 10 RBI, over the last week before the break. The 32.8% K rate is odd for Votto, but so is his 22.9% barrel rate. The barrels would be the highest mark of his career, so I see both numbers stabilizing. However, the good times should roll into the second half with his .292/.416/.521 career slash, 401 XBHs and 146 wRC+ at home. 

Outstandingly, the man also owns a career 146 wRC+ on the road! Does Votto have the numbers for the Hall of Fame? Hit me up in the chat with your opinions!

The Lefty/Righty splits (1 L / 6 R) support playing Votto too, as well as sticking with Jake Fraley. In deeper leagues, we can stream Will Benson (12% Yahoo, 3% ESPN, 45% Fantrax). Benson has been one of the best hitters in baseball since 5/30 (12 XBH, 4 HR, 7 SB, .356 BA, 1.080 OPS). Most noteworthy, I love his 7.8% swinging strike rate! 

We should also take a strong look at the visitors of the four-game set to begin the week, the San Francisco Giants (@CIN – 4, @WSH – 3). Nationals Park (101 SPF, t-8^th) and GAGP represent massive positive park shifts for the Giants (98 SPF, t-17^th with seven clubs). With an even Lefty/Righty split, the G-Men make for better daily plays. #RockthePlatoon

EN FUEGO
Is any team hotter than the Atlanta Braves (ARI – 3, @MIL – 3)? They were the first team to 60 wins on the season, and the Rays started the year with a 13-game winning streak and a 27-6 record by 5/5! Well, they should continue to crush the baseball this upcoming week with decent hitters’ parks, especially lefty batters Matt Olson, Michael Harris II and Eddie Rosario^DTD(34% Yahoo, 15% ESPN, 60% Fantrax – Check status though: He sat on 7/16 with right hamstring tightness). THE BRAVES WILL SEE SIX RHP! That is all.

Quick Hitters…

• BAL (LAD – 3, @TBR – 4): Both parks are just under average with a 98 SPF, but Camden Yards has seen its fair share of triples, and balls have been flying out of the Trop, primarily due to the home team. Baltimore also enjoys five righties on the hill to two LHP. Although, the two lefties are Julio Urías and a mending Shane McClanahan.
• TBR (@TEX – 3, BAL – 4): Before squaring off against Baltimore, the Rays will travel to the heat of Texas to take on the Rangers at Globe Life Field (106 SPF, t-3^rd | 137 HR). As of this writing, the weather forecast is calling for highs of 105° with the massive heat waves striking this country. As a result, we can expect the roof to be closed. Click here for retractable roof data & guidelines in the Target section. While still in a prime spot, the roof dampers things. Either way, start your Rays, especially lefties Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe and Luke Raley (7 RHP)! However, regarding your Ranger bats, you can consider sitting dudes like Nate Lowe, Josh Jung and Jonah Heim for options in better circumstances. Texas is home all week (TBR – 3, LAD – 3).
• DET (@KCR – 4, SDP – 3): The Tigers will face two lefty starters to five right-handers.
• KCR (DET – 4, @NYY – 3): The Royals will face two lefty starters to five right-handers.
• MIN (@SEA – 4, CHW – 3): The Twins will face seven right-handers!
• ARI (@ATL – 3, @CIN – 3; 1 L / 5 R): CC (Corbin Caroll) + EDLC x GABP = Fantasy Goodness. It’s simple math! Despite Chase Field moving up to No. 11 in SPF with a league average of 100, Truist Park and GAGB represent positive park shifts for hitters. Furthermore, D-backs catch the “weaker” side of Braves Rotation: Bryce Elder, Michael Soroka and Charlie Morton. Meanwhile, the Reds Staff is just weak without Hunter Greene^IL and Nick Lodolo^IL.

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
May I suggest The Northside Nine? Our beloved Cubbies (sorry, Cards fans) will face four Southpaws this week when they square off against the Nats for three and Cardinals for four, all at Wrigley Field. It’s only been 72 ABs, but Cody Bellinger is slashing .342/.420/1.100 with half of his home runs against fellow lefties! ? While he’s most likely rostered in your league, if you hold Belli, don’t shy away from playing the red-hot slugger. He will be a terrific contrarian play for DFS this week, too, when facing the lefties. 

Nico Hoerner (.298/.327/.436, 106 wRC+ vs. LHP) and my boy Seiya Suzuki (50% Yahoo, 45% ESPN, 83% Fantrax; .297/.361/.405, 112 wRC+ vs. LHP) make for some fine options as well this week. I like for Suzuki to have a strong second half now that he’s far removed from neck and oblique issues that have plagued him this season. Since the Fourth of July, Suzuki has hits in seven of eight games, including two multi-hit games. 

Places to Avoid

I would avoid Mariners hitters this week despite their volume of games (MIN – 4, TOR – 3). T-Mobile Park is tied for last in the league with a SPF of 95. The only red we see below is in strikeouts, circumstantial from the excellent pitching which often transpires in Seattle. This week should be no different. Mariner bats will face the likes of Pablo López¹⁸, Bailey Ober³⁸, Sonny Gray⁴⁰ and potentially Kevin Gausman² (DTD, Left Side Discomfort), depending on when he is ready to return to the mound. Furthermore, their opponents’ bullpens have been razor-sharp! Minnesota has a pen ERA of 3.76 (eighth in MLB), and Toronto’s is at 3.63 (fifth). Of course, Jordan Romano’s pending status (DTD, Lower Back Tightness) is a factor here following his removal from the All-Star Game. For more on Gausman & Romano, see IL Report.

Ty France has been ice-cold over the last month of games. France has been moved down to seventh in the order on most nights. He is batting .171 with only two extra-base hits and four runs driven in alongside two walks and 23 punchies. Furthermore, he slashes .236/.320/.667 vs. RHP in 259 ABs. Lo and behold, Seattle will face six right-handers this week. #MustSit

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 7/15/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers compiled an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Logan Webb¹⁰ (@CIN, @WSH)
2. Mitch Keller¹³ (CLE, @LAA) ⬅️ UPDATE: Keller gets a second start with PIT pushing Priester to next week (see below). Say that three times real fast!
3. Aaron Nola¹⁵ (MIL, @CLE)
4. Logan Gilbert¹⁶ (MIN, TOR)
5. Joe Musgrove¹⁹ (@TOR, @DET)
6. Shane McClanahan²¹ (@TEX, BAL)
7. Jordan Montgomery²⁴ (MIA, @CHC)
8. Lucas Giolito²⁶ (@NYM, @MIN)
9. Jesús Luzardo³⁰ (@STL, @COL)
10. Bryce Elder³² (ARI, @MIL)
11. Bailey Ober³⁸ (@SEA, CHW)
12. Sonny Gray⁴⁰ (@SEA, CHW)
13. Hunter Brown⁴³ (@COL, @OAK)
14. Luis Severino⁵⁴ (@LAA, KCR) ⬅️ UPDATE: NYY swap Domingo Germán and Sevy in their pitching plans, giving the latter the two-step.
15. Taj Bradley⁵⁸ (@TEX, BAL)

*I have Shane McClanahan at #21 overall on the week since we need to see him have a healthy start. If you want to skip locking him in weekly leagues (i.e., NFBC), I don’t hate the notion. In fact, I did so in a league where rosters locked on 7/14. Daily leaguers can play a wait-and-see game to make sure the 26-year-old with injury issues checks out ok. Should he do so, McC will rise back into the top-10 again.

Other Options: Tyler Wells⁶¹ (LAD, @TBR), Dane Dunning⁶⁷ (TBR, LAD), Miles Mikolas⁷⁰ (MIA, @CHC), Tarik Skubal⁷⁹ (@KCR, SDP), MacKenzie Gore⁸¹ (@CHC, SFG), Jameson Taillon⁸³ & Drew Smyly¹⁰⁹ (WSH, STL), Bryan Woo⁸⁵ (MIN, TOR), Alek Manoah⁸⁷ (SDP, @SEA?)*, Grayson Rodriguez⁹⁹ (LAD, @TBR)*, Emmet Sheehan¹¹⁰ (@BAL, @TEX), Carlos Carrasco¹¹⁶ (CHW, @BOS), Logan Allen¹¹⁷ (@PIT, PHI) POV SPECIAL, Paul Blackburn¹¹⁸ (BOS, HOU), Matt Manning¹²¹ (@KCR, SDP), Julio Teheran¹²⁵ (@PHI, ATL), Daniel Lynch^IL (DET, @NYY) ⬅️ Lynch could be out long-term with his second shoulder strain of the season (missed two months to begin season). Zack Greinke^NR returns from the IL to pitch on 7/20 and fill vacancy.

*I need to see more than just one good start vs. DET from Manoah, whose mechanics and arm slot were all out of whack before his demotion. If he demonstrates consistent control and the ability to miss bats against these teams, we can then talk about re-entering our circle /of trust. Plus, if Kevin Gausman is good to go for 7/18, he could get the two step instead! As I expected, the earliest we see Gausman is SEA series.

UPDATE: Rodriguez will be recalled to take Cole Irvin’s spot, who shifts to LR in the pen. Grayson has turned around his season at Triple-A and looks to have a better showing at the MLB level. I’ll wait & see with these two daunting matchups. Also, due to Wade Miley mysteriously hitting the IL on 7/17, Teheran pitches in his stead for 7/18 and gets two-starts. He had already been scheduled to take on his former team, the Braves, on 7/23.

UPDATE: DET will recall Alex Faedo for a spot start on 7/23 during a busy stretch of games. As a result, Skubal loses second start and should pitch on 7/24 in a makeup game against the Giants at home. After giving up seven runs in his third start off the IL, this is just what the doctor ordered. If so, he can get two starts next week (SFG, @MIA).

Danger Zone: Quinn Priester^NR (CLE, @LAA) POV SPECIAL, Jordan Lyles^NR (DET, @NYY), Luis Medina^NR (BOS, HOU)*, Zach Davies^IL (@ATL, @CIN), Brandon Williamson^NR & Luke Weaver^NR (SFG, ARI)

*Medina is likely to follow an opener but hard-pressed to get wins vs. these squads, even if he’s the primary pitcher.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JULY 17 – 23

UPDATES: Spencer Strider will move up to face the D-backs (as well as Charlie Morton moving up a day) to give Michael Soroka more time to face the Brewers in Milwaukee. Lance Lynn will now face the Twins in Minnesota with CHW bumping up Touki Toussaint to 7/19. This provides staff an extra day of rest, including Michael Kopech, who is up against innings limit. Also, Taijuan Walker (MIL) and Ranger Suárez (@CLE) flip in PHI’s rotation to break up the LHP (Suárez & Cristopher Sánchez).

“SHOWDOWN AT HIGH NOON!”

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners
Thursday, July 20 – 12:40 PM PT
Pablo López vs. George Kirby
Both elite pitchers are looking to rebound from poor first starts following the break!

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

This just in…

Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres – DTD, Twisted Ankle

Tatis was out of the starting lineup for the series finale against the Phillies. However, he is doing better than expected after twisting his right ankle on 7/15, according to Padres manager Bob Melvin. Tatis may be available off the bench, so looks precautionary. Continue to monitor!

Eloy Jiménez, White Sox – DTD, Left Groin Tightness

Jiménez exits the series finale against Atlanta in the second inning with what was announced as left groin tightness. The right fielder hit into an inning-ending double play in the first. Jiménez seemed to move a little slowly as he got beyond first base. Gavin Sheets, who pinch-hit for Jiménez in the second inning, took over in right field. #ForeverInjured

Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays – DTD, Left Side Discomfort

Gausman missed his scheduled start on 7/15 due to discomfort on his left side. With MRIs revealing no structural damage, Toronto is deeming Gausman day-to-day for now. As I expected, Gausman is penciled in for 7/22 vs. SEA. However, there will be a sweat with the Tuesday first game. On the brighter side, teammate Hyun Jin Ryu’s comeback from Tommy John surgery couldn’t be going any better at this point. Pitching on 7/15 for the Triple-A Bisons, Ryu delivered five innings of one-run ball, allowing just three hits and striking out five. With Ryu up to 66 pitches now, another start in Triple-A will help him grow that workload. The Blue Jays can chart his path from there. Jordan Romano threw off a mound on 7/14 but is still experiencing some soreness.

Shane Bieber, Guardians – 15-day IL, Right Elbow Inflammation (Retro 7/12)

Bieber hits the 15-day injured list after being scratched over the weekend from his 7/17 start. First, it was a forearm issue. Guardians manager Terry Francona said his 28-year-old hurler was having trouble bouncing back from his recent starts due to forearm irritation. Now, the diagnosis is elbow inflammation. No timetable, and no bueno! The Guardians and Rays are involved in a secret competition for who can murder the most pitchers. Or at least, that’s the word from click-bait journalists like Mark Gooden. For a more accurate portrait, see Mandy Bell below.

Medical Updates…

• Aaron Judge, Yankees: Judge (right toe sprain), who has been out since 6/4, took batting practice at Coors Field for the second straight day on 7/15, also doing some light running. Judge reported after taking BP on 7/14 that he “didn’t feel limited at all” by the injury. There is still no timetable set for his return.
• Yordan Alvarez, Astros: Alvarez is set to begin his rehab assignment any day now with Triple-A Sugar Land. An illness prevented him from playing on 7/14, but Alvarez worked out in Houston on 7/15. C’mon, brutha… take some Zicam! I need ya, buddy?? Astros teammate Framber Valdez has a DTD next to his name, but the lefty should be fine after experiencing a left calf cramp in the LA heat. Shortstop Jeremy Peña could be a different story. 
• Merrill Kelly, D-backs: Kelly (blood clot in calf) threw a 75-pitch sim game on 7/15 & could return as soon as 7/20 @ATL, depending on his health status afterward. However, I contend that ARI will pitch Zac Gallen on regular rest against the mighty Braves and give Kelly an extra day of rest from the sim game to take the hill in Cincinnati on 7/21. UPDATE: Kelly will require a rehab start despite high-pitch sim game and should return 7/25-26 vs. STL.
• Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: There has been a mix of reports on Kershaw (15-day IL, Left Shoulder Soreness), ranging from a return next weekend in Texas to a return closer to August, including from Dodgers manager Dave Roberts himself. I opted to leave him in the rankings above, but I’m fine with leaving him on your fantasy bench until we get some clarity here. Will be an AUG return; Emmet Sheehan should get two starts.
• Anthony DeSclafani, Giants: While Tony Disco hit the 15-day IL with right shoulder fatigue just before the All-Star Break, he could be back after as little as one rehab start at the rookie-level complex. Not worth the risk to start in weekly lock leagues for me, but if he does return on 7/18 @CIN and proves healthy, I’m here for the start in Washington for daily leaguers.
• Edward Cabrera, Marlins: Cabrera (shoulder) threw a five-inning simulated game on 7/13 with the Marlins’ rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reports. He should be activated for the 7/18 start (if not, definitely by 7/23). 
• Cedric Mullins, Orioles: Mullins was out of the lineup on 7/16 following his exit in the second inning from the middle game against the Marlins. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said Mullins was getting treatment, and that it’s a “day-to-day situation,” as the team believes it caught a break with Mullins likely to avoid the IL.
• Trevor Story, Red Sox: Story (right UCL surgery) will start his much-anticipated Minor League rehab assignment on either 7/18 or 7/19. Once he starts his assignment, he’ll get a maximum of 20 days in the Minors.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

There is a running theme this week, with one series having a plethora of streamable arms.

→ Logan Allen¹¹⁷, LH CLE (@PIT, PHI; 13% rostered in Yahoo, 6% in ESPN, 52% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Despite getting called back up on 7/18 to plug one of two gapping spots in Cleveland’s rotation, I contend he will net two starts, with the Guardians running a bullpen game on 7/17 (Tuesday fits Allen’s MiLB schedule). We last saw Allen getting touched up after a fine start to the year, but with the refresher and mental recharge, I say we get early-season Allen in two tasty matchups. Philly struggles to get on base against lefties despite Top-6 ISO marks (.256 BA, 16^th – .320 wOBA, 16^th); thus, the damage is left below minimum (98 wRC+ vs. LHP). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has just been struggling. The Pirates are ranked 27th in home runs and 24th in runs scored.

UPDATE: Xzavion Curry is the scheduled starter for 7/23 as of 2:00 am ET. Rumblings of CLE activating Peyton Battenfield to either make spot start or follow Curry in bulk relief. Both would make for interesting desperate streaming options against the struggling Phils offense, but Curry unlikely for win. Meanwhile, Allen should take the hill on 7/24 vs. KCR (and again 7/30 @CHW).

Honorable Mention: Quinn Priester^NR, RH PIT (CLE, @LAA; 2% Yahoo, 0% ESPN, 40% Fantrax) – For Deep Leagues – Priester is a top prospect for the Pirates who is on the taxi squad ahead of his MLB debut on 7/17 vs. CLE. It’s a good landing spot to get your feet wet. He is the No. 54 overall prospect on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 as well as No. 117 per Fangraphs. Despite this rankings discrepancy, he is the Buccos’ No. 4 and comes with a world of talent.

Priester is athletic on the mound and has shown a quality command for the strike zone with a 97 mph heater and a high-spin curve in the upper-70s, which is his best pitch, according to the team. In 87.2 IP (18 GS) at Triple-A Indianapolis, he has had an uninspiring 4.31 ERA, but the FIP is 3.86. I like the 53.8% ground ball and 22.4% strikeout rates. We could easily catch lightning in a bottle for the first start. And the Angels minus Trout don’t scare me when you can pitch around Ohtani. UPDATE: A rough first outing gives Priester a push to next week to shake it off. Maybe he should stop at the “Peace Pit?” See what I did there? ??

One-Start Pitcher: Aaron Civale¹¹⁵, RH CLE (@PIT; 53% Yahoo, 24% ESPN, 85% Fantrax) – Civale is safe to send to the mound this week. Just look at PIT’s numbers above! His 3.78 xERA shows the luck he’s had maintaining a 2.65 ERA and is closer to his career 3.88 ERA. Much is due to an unsustainable 82.1% rate of runners left on base. But I like the 5.4% barrel rate, down 2.1% from last year and 2.8% from 2021. In this matchup, expect the good fortune to continue. Also, Michael Lorenzen⁶³ (@KCR), if available.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!