Who’s down for a little game? Ray and I have been pumping out article after article, getting you fully prepped for drafts. But for today’s draft guide article, I wanted to give your eyes a rest and have some fun! Far too often in fantasy baseball, we get swept up in the big names and corresponding hype which comes with them. I pride myself on starting the right player for a given matchup, yet I can be as guilty as anyone. At times, it would be great to remove the name column entirely. So, that’s what we’ll attempt to do here.
When I’m compiling batted-ball data in making hitter selections for my lineup or examining statistics for the next day’s pitching matchups, I’m taken aback by how the same level of production can come at such a draft-day value. Conversely, taking a look at the daily numbers shows us which big names are not living up to the hype along with the trends from game to game or start to start.
Here are pairs of player stats from their 2022 performances along with their ADP and some light analysis. The names will be redacted, and I’ll do my best to not let the cat out of the bag. Make your guess on each name, and then click the corresponding link for the answer. We’re operating on the honor system here cause we all know… there’s no cheating in baseball.
“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday’s success or put its failures behind and start over again. That’s the way life is, with a new game every day, and that’s the way baseball is.”
~ Bullet Bob Feller, Legendary Strat-O-Matic Fantasy Baseball Pitcher
Player A: 2.20 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, 3.48 SIERA, 2.70 xERA, 30.4% K, 10.4% BB, 31.2% HH, 39.4% GB, 30.3% FB, 22.1% LD, 43.56 NFBC ADP (1/1/23-2/8/23)
Player B: 2.54 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 3.32 SIERA, 3.17 xERA, 26.9% K, 6.6% BB, 36.1% HH, 46.7% GB, 24.2% FB, 22.2% LD, 73.28 ADP
Let’s begin our game with two pitchers who are both 27 years of age. Last year, B had a better WHIP (0.91 – 1.11) and ABA (1.34 – 1.53). As a result, B had a smidge better Fantasy Production mark than A despite going roughly 57 spots later. You can see the difference above if you compare their FIP, xFIP and SIERA. And looking to this season, B projects by a wider margin over A despite the nearly 30-spot gap. Furthermore, A was a Cy Young Finalist, while B wound up fifth in his respective league’s voting. Finally, this is gonna be a big clue for those highly adept. As per Ray Flowers’ MLB Rankings, B ranks one spot higher than A while besting some of the other big names at the position.
Player A: .271/.352/.518, 67 XBH, 40 HR, 131 RBI, 0.52 BB/K, .246 ISO, .366 wOBA, 12.3% BAR, 34.5% SS, 44.8% HH, 0.82 GB/FB, 143 wRC+, 18.65 ADP
Player B: .242/.327/.477, 63 XBH, 36 HR, 94 RBI, 0.53 BB/K, .235 ISO, .346 wOBA, 11.5% BAR, 33.3% SS, 44.0% HH, 0.87 GB/FB, 122 wRC+, 132.54 ADP
A was tied for the most RBI in baseball last year despite being eighth in ISO and 11th in SLG. It represented a propensity to take the ball the opposite way in RBI situations with two strikes and two gone. But when it came to the long ball, we gladly took 40, which was only four more than B. This upcoming 32-year-old is coming off a career-high in homers. Although, it was only his second season of 29 or more HR. However, his plate appearances were north of 600 in 2022 for the first time since that prior season of 2019. At 133.01 ADP, now would be the time to strike on B for redraft leagues. That is before he gets too long in the tooth.
Player A: 3.35 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.75 xFIP, 2.94 SIERA, 3.34 xERA, 28.3% K, 3.9% BB, 38.5% HH, 40.1% GB, 26.3% FB, 28.1% LD, 64.19 NFBC ADP (1/1/23-2/8/23)
Player B: 2.96 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 3.54 xERA, 25.6% K, 5.9% BB, 40.6% HH, 34.3% GB, 32.3% FB, 23.5% LD, 87.92 ADP
This one is gonna be fun! A has been in the top 10 in Cy Young voting the past two years, including an All-Star appearance. Meanwhile, B is wet behind the ears in Major-League waters (60 GS / 344.2). A’s career took off in 2020 after years of mediocrity. This was due in large part to the development of his split-finger fastball (44.5% Whiff rate, 25.1% Put Away rate in 2022). While last season was not quite as fine, he demonstrated elite control. On the other hand, over the past two full seasons, B’s control has been a work in progress.
In 2021, B struck out the world, but he also allowed more than his fair share of walks (11.7%, 120 IP). The young pitcher worked on his wild ways during the offseason. As a result, when 2022 began, B demonstrated elite control and cut down the walk rate. However, batters laid their sticks on more pitches pounding the strike zone, and the Ks went waaaaay down. Like barely at a double-digit rate. He searched for the put-away curve that feeds so well off his four-seam fastball, which he displayed many times in 2021. As the 2022 season wore on, we witnessed the K-rate slowly rise to 25.6% (27.5% in 2021, 33.1% in 2020 – 33.1 IP). If B can put it all together in the 2023 season, he can be a Top 15 SP in fantasy baseball!
“Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.”
~ Yogi Berra, A Legacy of Wordplay
Player A: .265/.324/.400, 48 XBH, 13 HR, 57 RBI, 32 SB, 0.41 BB/K, .135 ISO, .318 wOBA, 6.2% BAR, 31.6% SS, 37.8% HH, 1.60 GB/FB, 108 wRC+, 72.31 ADP
Player B: .263/.327/.445, 64 XBH, 20 HR, 89 RBI, 32 SB, 0.29 BB/K, .183 ISO, .336 wOBA, 7.9% BAR, 28.2% SS, 41.0% HH, 1.54 GB/FB, 125 wRC+, 37.28 ADP
These hitters are relatively close in our MLB Draft Book (A is 4B, B is 3B). A is eligible at both 2B & SS, while B is an OF, but both can be assets in your Utility. But the dual-eligibility is niiice. B has the better power stroke (see ISO), but not as much as you would think off the bat. The 41 doubles help. It’s hard to say A is better than B when the latter went 20/30 with a wRC+ that is 25% above league average. However, A competes hard vs. B in most stats while possessing a higher Sweet Spot rate. Neither has great plate discipline, but I’d prefer A’s 0.41 BB/K to B’s 0.29.
A has never hit below .262 in a full season (.250 in 227 PA for 2020). B has 52 swipes in the past two years. Meanwhile, A has had 62, and as a result, he has had 91+ runs over the past two years as well. B has had 94 once in 2021. Oh, and one final clue… these two were once teammates in Triple-A.
Player A: .276/.342/.478, 53 XBH, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 0.34 BB/K, .202 ISO, .354 wOBA, 11.3% BAR, 35.6% SS, 47.2% HH, 1.24 GB/FB, 128 wRC+, 26.01 ADP
Player B: .260/.343/.465, 53 XBH, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 0.58 BB/K, .205 ISO, .349 wOBA, 10.3% BAR, 36.8% SS, 43.0% HH, 0.67 GB/FB, 127 wRC+, 51.15 ADP
My last bit of trivia involves backstops. B (1.39 Fantasy Production in 2022) is the best-hitting catcher in fantasy baseball IMO. He keeps getting better. Yet, A (1.15 FP) is going ahead of him once again in drafts. In 2023, A projects for 1.08, while B tabs for 1.43. B is entering his age-28 season, while A turns 32 to begin the season. Both are players in their prime and have eerily similar numbers with a few differences. Batting average goes to A, along with slugging percentage and hard-hit rate. Yet, B had much better BB/K and GB/FB rates.
A 1.24 GB/FB rate mathematically equates to 22.1 HR, A’s 2022 total. Meanwhile, a power-driven 0.67 equates to >29.5, so the HR upside is there for B. The feather in A’s cap is the stolen base. His 34 swipes in the past two seasons eclipse B’s four. Yet again, we see a small example of how stolen bases promote one player over another in fantasy baseball.
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