Rob Povia reviews Fantasy Baseball ADP and 2022 production. Using consensus draft values across league hosts, we create a larger picture.
ADP is the Average Draft Position for MLB players in fantasy baseball drafts. While a useful draft prep tool for understanding how players are valued, we here at Fantasy Guru preach consideration for the entire build of a player and not to be married to ADP alone. My mission for this draft guide article is to create a larger picture for players and see how this matches up with the ADP leading into the 2022 season. We will utilize consensus draft values across the most popular league hosts – ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RT Sports, NFBC, BestBall10s and Fantrax. Rankings will be ordered based on their Fantasy Production (FP). FP is a statistic I developed that measures the key facets of each respective type of player. Or, at least, what I find key.
Hitters: ISO*2.25 + wOBA + BB/K = FP
BEST OF THE TOP 100
Hard to fathom a finer season than the one Aaron Judge had in 2022. Of course, the AL Home Run record stands out the most. But Judge did many things right at the plate and was arguably the best offensive player in all of baseball. Yes, Juan Soto has his normal perch at the top and is ahead of Judge in the FP rankings (ordered most to least and by FP). But this is primarily due to his outrageous 1.41 BB/K rate, which is high every year. Overall, he disappointed at 3.94 ADP. Many Shohei Ohtani truthers argued he was the better hitter and rightful MVP due to what he also brings from the mound (more on that later). However, from a hitting FP standpoint, Ohtani was 24 spots lower than “His Honor.”
Jose Altuve and Nolan Arenado paid off their draft day cost like gangbusters! Thanks to a lower BB/K, Arenado’s MVP teammate Paul Goldschmidt trails his fellow finalist by .08. What a dynamic duo, although I have my doubts that Goldy can replicate his .260 ISO or .419 wOBA.
Jesse Winker had the same BB/K as Freddie Freeman. However, this was his lone saving grace in an otherwise disappointing fantasy season. His ISO fell off a cliff in his move to Seattle and its spacious T-Mobile Park. Also, his wOBA was a full 80 points below Freeman’s despite the BB/K similarity. Now back in the NL Central with the Brew Crew, Winker’s numbers could resemble his days with the Reds. While T-Mobile Park was last in Statcast’s overall park factor, American Family Field in Milwaukee was 12th best by the end of last season. AFF is right at the league average of 100 but also has an HR park factor of 115 (tied for fifth best). T-Mobile Park’s HR park factor is at 95, the 11th worst mark.
Remember, Corey Seager may be the biggest benefactor due to shifting limitations. Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber may benefit, too! It will be a challenge for Schwarber to better his scintillating 2022, coming in just behind Pete Alonso in FP. With an ADP of 124.61, he provided a handsome return when compared to Alonso’s 60.32. As a result, Schwarber’s ADP for 2023 (as of 1/11/23) lies at 57.50.
Jeff McNeil was a helluva steal last season as he paced MLB in batting average on his way to the crown. With a 187.1 consensus ADP for 2023 (as of 1/11/23), he’s still getting no respect from the industry. He was a shift monster (as you can see by clicking the link above). He could lose a couple of hits from the new rules but stands to rake again in 2023 due to his advanced approach. Speaking of players cruising past their projections, Austin Riley crushed his projections and continues to refine his game. I have been a believer since Day 1.
People pissed on the grave of Max Muncy after an extremely slow start to the 2022 season. I received questions about whether he should be dropped and even saw him given the hook in a few leagues. By the end of the year, his FP was .01 higher than Shohei Ohtani’s. The two-way phenom did pay off his draft-day cost – no question – especially with his power numbers and ability to drive in runs. However, it would be wise for his next progression to be a reduction of strikeouts (161 in 2022, 72 BB). I just do not understand how a manager would give up on Muncy with an average draft cost of 139.47 in 2022. Meanwhile, that same dude was probably holding onto Taysom Hill in fantasy football, waiting for the repeat 35-point performance from Week 5. #Patience
Will Smith (66.77 ADP / 1.39 FP) is the best catcher in fantasy baseball. He keeps getting better. Yet, J.T. Realmuto (55.36 / 1.15) went ahead of him once again. Hell, Keibert Ruiz wasn’t far off J.T.’s pace (157.08 / 1.14).
DJ LeMahieu’s 1.53 FP is fueled by his outstanding 0.94 BB/K. Specifically, he walked 67 times and only struck out 71 times. But DJ is an example of where my formula for fantasy production per ADP goes astray. While still a useful piece for fantasy purposes, he’s not better than Mookie Betts (1.50 FP). The inverse is true for Sal Perez. A fine hitting catcher, yes, but only 18 walks. The 109 strikeouts were a nice decrease from the season before (170) and closer to his career norm.
WORST OF THE TOP 100
At one point or another, it seemed like the whole Chicago White Sox team spent time on the injured list last season. Luis Robert and Yasmani Grandal were massive disappointments per their ADP due to injury. Robert’s season was cut short after 98 games and 401 plate appearances, and his stock for 2023 has taken a slight dip (18.48 – 42.94 ADP). Yoán Moncada managed to fit in 104 games between injuries, and his ADP is free-falling to 237.2 (all as of 1/11/23). Meanwhile, Tim Anderson still sucks in this metric albeit in only 79 games (351 PA).
Trea Turner continues to be drafted in fantasy baseball earlier than he should due to steals. Will there be a leveling of the playing field in 2023? Marcus Semien underwhelmed his 29.80 draft-day cost with a 1.16 FP. Whereas Jorge Polanco gave good returns (1.39 FP) for his cost (85.28 ADP), ranking ahead of Manny Machado (1.38 FP). And I’m still not a “Bo-liever!”
Dansby Swanson has the same FP as Myles Straw. Chew on that!
Cody Bellinger continues The Downward Spiral. Jonathan India was miserable as well, although India traversed injury after injury. If he can get his health right and come into this season 100%, I expect a bounceback. As a result of India’s sophomore slump coming off Rookie of the Year honors, his ADP plummets to 158.76 (as of 1/11/23) from the 96.67 he had a year ago. He could make for a nice bargain, but we need to pay attention to Spring Training.
Ronald Acuña Jr. had a hard time getting going or finding consistency from sporadic playing time. Returning from injury in-season, plus Atlanta taking it easy on the 25-year-old outfielder with days off between starts, kept his numbers down. One would expect a return to normalcy in 2023. However, no one disappointed more than Nick Castellanos. His 0.81 FP pales in comparison to the 1.17 his projections indicated. With an even more dynamic lineup around him in Philly along with a year under his belt in the City of Brotherly love, we can expect a return to normalcy here too. After all, the man did post .200+ ISO for the past six seasons before 2022, and his career wOBA is .340.
I’ve grown tired of Gleyber Torres and his 129 strikeouts in 572 plate appearances (39 walks). 🤮
Oh, do you remember when Ke’Bryan Hayes was a thing? Yeah, me neither. Jarred Kelenic still has time to become a thing, but the clock is ticking.
Daulton Varsho wasn’t as great as people make him out to be. His 1.11 FP was salvaged by the .207 ISO he posted in 2022. In the end, he needs to improve his 145 strikeouts to only 46 walks, especially if he wants to get on base with regularity and use his speed. Maybe less prominent of a need now that he will hit lower in the lineup with his new team in Toronto. Most of his value came from being able to start him as a catcher, but the eligibility will go away in 2024 when he primarily plays outfield for the Blue Jays. At least we get one last ride!
What the fuck happened to Franmil Reyes? My God! The power dried up over the course of a tumultuous season that saw him trade in Cleveland red for Chicago blue. Maybe, if the waters settle, the boomstick will return.
Trevor Story will miss a significant portion of the 2023 season after undergoing an internal bracing procedure on his right UCL. Kiké Hernández could be the benefactor here with regular playing time at shortstop and added position eligibility in your league. Meanwhile, Xander Bogaerts will be soaking up the rays in sunny San Diego…
Pitchers: ERA + ABA + SIERA = FP
BEST OF THE TOP 60
We discussed the hitting prowess of Shohei Ohtani earlier, but he was an effective beast on the mound in 2022 as well! Increased control, an improved walk rate, and a vicious splitter that elicits a high number of swings & misses led to a 6.49 FP, which ranks among the league’s elite arms.
Liam Hendriks’ career is on pause as he fights Non-Hodgkin lymphoma. General manager Rick Hahn released a statement, “Knowing everyone involved, especially Liam, we are optimistic he will pitch again for the White Sox as soon as viable. In the meantime, we all will do everything in our power to support our teammate and his family as they face this challenge, while also respecting their privacy.” Hahn said the White Sox don’t expect to have an update on Hendriks’ playing status “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.” Some things are more important than baseball.
Closers Edwin Díaz and Emmanuel Clase provided better FP than Hendricks while registering ADPs two rounds later. Not many closers are worth $102 million over five years due to volatility, but you get the trumpets for free.
Max Scherzer had one of his finest seasons in his first year for New York. He bested his 2021 FP by 0.27 while pitching 145.1 innings, 34 fewer than the year before. However, he trailed once teammate, now Texas Ranger, Jacob deGrom (5.94 FP; 64.1 IP). . . sorry, I just had to throw up in my mouth for a little bit. Justin Verlander (5.97 FP; 175 IP) should do just fine as the fill-in for the Mets, and at a consensus ADP of 115.39, he did many of the fantasy managers “just fine” on his way to an improbable Cy Young.
The NL counterpart, Sandy Alcantara, did not disappoint his 39.47 ADP and was a bulldog with his MLB-leading 228.2 innings, 23.2 more than Aaron Nola in second. Yet, Shane McClanahan may be the best pitcher in the FLA. Shane O’Mac’s 6.72 was better than Sandy’s 7.08 and could have been lower if McC didn’t hit a wall and experience injury toward the season’s end. How many bleeping nicknames do I have for McClanahan?
Corbin Burnes “regressed” a titch from his 2021 Cy Young campaign, with the FP increasing from 6.24 to 7.34. Would have been a feat to replicate a 2.43 ERA, 1.20 ABA and 2.61 SIERA. Although, 2.94/1.49/2.91 is still phenomenal. However, Carlos Rodón was better with his 7.13 FP, and he went around the middle of round eight. With a shift to the Bronx, something tells me he won’t make it to the eighth round this year or even much past the third. But can he maintain his success (as well as health) in a hitter’s park?
Ryan Pressly pressed through some neck issues to pitch another fine year and pay off his ADP. A few picks earlier, Raisel Iglesias combined between the Angels and Braves to post a similarly stellar season in 71 innings pitched (Pressly threw 48.1). Yet, Iglesias’ 2023 consensus ADP is not reflecting it (106.25 as of 1/11/23). If you missed out on both last season, Jordan Romano was a nice consolation prize (106.66 / 6.41).
Ignore Chris Sale’s 7.92 FP… he only fired 5.2 innings before once again falling down a flight of stairs, shattering every bone in his body. Oh wait, that was Mr. Glass, but Sale was injured again too after rehabbing in the first half. We may never see “Unbreakable” Chris Sale again. A more legit mark of 7.90 was posted by Yu Darvish, and his renaissance is much more real.
Framber Valdez far exceeded his 8.68 projected fantasy baseball production from a year ago with a 7.42 mark. The extreme ground baller took a huge leap in 2022. He looks to take the reins of staff ace upon Verlander’s departure. Lance McCullers Jr. might have something to say about that and is looking to build off his 63 IP in 2022 (regular and postseason).
Julio Urías faced adversity early on in his 2022 season but righted the ship well on his way to a third-place finish in the Cy Young. It was his second consecutive year in the top 10 of voting. Could 2023 be his year? 🤔 Zac Gallen was even better with a draft-day cost of nearly 110 spots later. These two will be exciting for years to come in the NL West. However, over in the AL Central, Dylan Cease continues to get it done despite a large walk rate.
Giovanny Gallegos did not lose his job by pitching poorly (7.47 FP), but Ryan Helsley straight gangsta’d the role (4.38 FP).
WORST OF THE TOP 60
It was a Junior year to forget for Trevor Rogers. Well, really a sophomore slump with the seven starts in the truncated 2020 season. But it was bad! Besides an ERA north of five, Rogers had an ugly 2.27 ABA as he could not keep guys off base. After a demotion to Triple-A, it had looked like Rogers righted the ship before his season came to a tragic conclusion with a lat strain. He will look to regain his 2021 form.
Can Jack Flaherty return to form after painstakingly gutting through 36 innings last year? His shoulder gives me pause, as do the miserable results. And speaking of miserable results, fuck José Berríos. Fuck his everlasting inconsistent ways. Ok, maybe I’m coming too aggressive. I’m sure he’s a fine young man and does good for his community. I wish him no harm but fuck you, hombre.
Josh Hader’s stats and the resultant FP are from both Milwaukee and San Diego while also being massively inflated from a year ago (1.23 ERA, 1.06 ABA, 2.09 SIERA, 4.38 FP). He looked much more himself down the stretch and into the postseason. Hader tossed 10.1 innings in September/October to close the regular season, giving up four hits, two runs (one earned) and two walks with 13 strikeouts and six saves (one blown save). In the postseason, he was even more lights out: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K.
Few pitchers in fantasy baseball left me scratching my head more than Tyler Mahle. Thought he was a steal in my draft, but I was the one left empty-pocketed. Lucas Giolito is mighty close in the confusion department, but much like his Pale Hose brethren, I believe he was playing hurt.
Both Shane Baz (27 IP) and Walker Buehler’s (65 IP) seasons were cut short due to Tommy John surgery. They are both set to miss the entire 2023 season, and the latter could most likely miss some of the 2024 season, as well.
Overall, after studying each chart, we see further proof of how ADP does not equate to fantasy production. As a side note, we also see why it is important to wait on pitching. Beat it into your heads come draft season!
You may be thinking, “Well, all of this information is great for WHAT HAPPENED, but WHAT WILL HAPPEN in 2023?” Part II of this article will compare the current consensus ADP for 2023 to their Steamer projections in all the above statistics. Stay tuned…
Download the complete list of Top 100 Hitters ADP vs. FP, Top 60 Pitchers ADP vs. FP:
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