Rob Povia reviews Fantasy Baseball ADP and 2023 production. Using consensus draft values across league hosts, we create a larger picture.
ADP is the Average Draft Position for MLB players in fantasy baseball drafts. While a useful draft prep tool for understanding how players are valued, we here at Fantasy Guru preach consideration for the entire build of a player and not to be married to ADP alone. My mission for this draft guide article is to create a larger picture for players and see how this matches up with the ADP leading into the 2023 season. We will utilize consensus draft values across the most popular league hosts – NFBC, Fantrax, Yahoo, RT Sports, CBS and ESPN. Rankings will be ordered based on their Fantasy Production (FP). FP is a statistic I developed that measures the key facets of each respective type of player. Or, at least, what I find key.
Hitters: ISO*2.25 + wOBA + BB/K = FP
BEST OF THE TOP 100
Is Ronald Acuña Jr. the best player in the game? My FP metric supports the argument, or at the very least, a close contest with Mookie Betts. But does Juan Soto get any love in the discussion? Nope, but he does here. Soto will be my most drafted player with him now calling the Bronx home. His ISO was the second-highest of his career for a full season (excluding 2020), and I can see that surge continuing in a more favorable hitter’s ballpark.
Aaron Judge was limited to 106 G and 458 PA in 2023. The toe injury depreciated his counting stats. But this does cause concern as his big frame may become more injury-prone with age in his 32-year-old season. He maintained an elite .346 ISO (.375 in 2022’s 62-HR season; .343 in 2017’s 52-HR rookie year). While the wOBA remained north of .420, his BB/K rose to a career-high 0.68.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to determine that Shohei Ohtani was worth his draft-day cost last season (which varies depending on site and league position eligibility for Ohtani). While it looks like his ADP will dip into the teens due to elbow surgery keeping him from the mound in 2024, his offensive FP shows he’s still worth the cost.
While José Ramírez’s 1.78 FP in 2023 was .05 higher than his mark in 2022, his .193 ISO was .042 lower. His isolated power has diminished in each of his last three seasons, yet his 1.00 BB/K rate was a five-year high and responsible for his inflated FP. The eye is as keen as ever, and he continues to be active on the bath paths, so no complaints. But at 3.58 ADP, we need more power. Alex Bregman went much later in the third-base position yet had the same story of diminished power and inflated FP thanks to taking more walks than striking out (92:87). Bregs was a disappointment, as I thought the new shift limitations would help him pick up extra-base hits. However, he can still be your contingency plan if you’re squeamish to pay JRam’s price.
Despite selling out a bit more for power over contact, Freddie Freeman had one terrific season, worthy of his third-place NL MVP showing after the aforementioned Acuña and Betts. Are we going to squabble over a 16.6% K rate? Not when he posted his highest ISO since 2019 (.299 in 2020). In the same ADP range, Kyle Tucker displayed high-end, first-round FP for an end-of-the-first, early-second price. Tucker will be my second-most drafted player after Soto. Yet, Kyle Schwarber benefited greatly from shift limitations and could have been grabbed many rounds later.
Very quietly, Matt Olson had a career year in 2023. His .321 ISO was his best mark since 2017’s .392 (216 PA, 24 HR). His .413 wOBA topped his 2017 mark and was his career best. Most notably, Olson’s 0.62 BB/K rebounded from 2022’s 0.44 and was his second-best tally (0.78 in 2021). We could be looking at regression for 2024 since career years are hard to replicate. But will you complain from a 40/100/100/.270/.370/.550 season (which would technically be regression)? Yeah, me neither. We would gladly accept that from an early second-rounder.
Just missing our top-10 fantasy producers is Corey Seager (1.65 FP, 59.33 Consensus ADP), who matched his 33 HR from 2022 as well as having similar run and RBI totals. But it was a different year for Seager, who bested Francisco Lindor (1.31, 36.30) by 0.34 FP. Seager, like Schwarber, enjoyed the shift limitations, yet no one benefited more. Seager had his best full-season BA, while his BABIP rose back to the levels we saw in his early Dodger days before teams realized they needed to shift against him. His ISO, SLG and wOBA were career-highs, and he posted a 169 wRC+.
Max Muncy (1.50 FP, 129.36 Consensus ADP) continues to get it done (unless we are talking batting average). However, if he continues getting on base, I can see him closer to his .249 BA in 2021 than the .212 last season.
Year after year, Marcus Semien provides solid value. So does Jose Altuve. Yet, Gleyber Torres (1.43 FP, 124.72 Consensus ADP) provided the best value in 2023 thanks to consistent power, getting on base, and strong improvement in his plate discipline. And this is two seasons in a row now and a return to pre-pandemic form!
Despite a solid 1.41 FP, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. posted the lowest ISO of his career since his rookie season in 2019. His selective eye at the dish (67 BB / 100 K in 682 PA) remains his saving grace. Yet, his counting stats (let alone overall power) did not live up to his draft-day cost. Roughly seven picks later, Pete Alonso provided a similar FP, albeit with much more power. His .287 ISO was the second-best mark for his career, only trailing his massive .323 ISO in 2019 when he blasted 53 HR for the rookie record. Four picks after Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt posted a .179 ISO in 2023. The last time he had an ISO below .192 in a full season was… never. He did have a .162 mark in the truncated 2020 season. Those who passed over these 1B and waited on Christian Walker (1.38, 108.03) were rewarded.
Will Smith’s 1.45 FP benefited greatly from an impressive 0.71 BB/K, taking 63 free passes in 554 PA. That’s the good news. The bad? His power has gone down starkly from his rookie year. So, while he’s a solid contributor to BA and getting on base from the catcher position, I wouldn’t draft him ahead of Alonso, Vlad Jr., Rafael Devers, Corbin Carroll or Adolis García. In terms of the Rangers OF, he not only had a career power year but contributed with more walks and fewer strikeouts than ever in his career. Still a buck-75 in the K column though, so let’s not go too crazy. But these are all guys I would draft before Smith, especially when Willson Contreras provided a 1.27 FP at a 130.76 Consensus ADP. Sean Murphy (1.38, 158.66) is there too, but good luck guessing playing time!
Based on FP, Ian Happ (1.41 FP, 137.45 Consensus ADP), Brandon Nimmo (1.30, 131.91) and Seiya Suzuki (1.26, 123.79) were better values than Christian Yelich and Trout.
Austin Riley (1.23 FP) is a peculiar case. If you tell me that my third baseman is giving me 37-97-117-.281/.345/.516, I’d be like, “Bet!” Plus, his price was roughly a third-rounder last year. However, he will always swing and miss a ton while taking few free passes. His FP is down due to his 0.34 BB/K, but we know what we are getting with Riley. At least he’s consistent! Yet, Gunnar Henderson (1.22 FP) was available about 72 picks later.
As expected, Jonathan India (1.17 FP, 180.09 Consensus ADP) was consistent again in 2023. We projected that he wouldn’t be as good as he was in his rookie year but better than in 2022 when he was limited by injury. That’s exactly what happened.
Willy Adames offers similar fantasy production as Bobby Witt Jr. at a much lower cost. It is the stolen base that is the differentiator.
Bryan Reynolds (1.16125, 91.34) vs. Alex Verdugo (1.1575; 172.53)
Ditto: Byron Buxton (1.1485 FP, 83.52 Consensus ADP) vs. Giancarlo Stanton (1.14225; 114.79)
WORST OF THE TOP 100
Sometimes, I wonder how accurate my FP statistic is in measuring the key facets of fantasy baseball. But then Tim Anderson comes strolling along. In 2021, I thought Anderson exposed my ideology here by being a useful fantasy asset yet scoring incredibly low in FP. Then, in ‘22, he once again sucked in this metric, albeit in only 79 games (351 PA). In 2023, Anderson had zero excuses. He participated in 123 games (524 PA) and proceeded to have the worst season of his career, and now the 30-year-old shortstop (or second baseman) is looking for a job. Look, I get it. Having more walks than strikeouts doesn’t always make for a fantasy star, but it creates such a stable floor and baseline for other statistics and accumulating points in those types of leagues.
It’s been a sudden fall from grace for 33-year-old Salvador Perez (0.82 FP, 110.03 Consensus ADP). We saw early warning signs in 2022, which were only solidified in ‘23. His .167 ISO was his lowest mark in seven years and a far cry from his steady .200+ in between. And since Salvy hardly gets on base via singles or free passes, his power has been his shining star. Furthermore, he swung-and-miss a lot more, coming closer to his 170 in 2021 than the 109 he worked hard to trim in ‘22. I’m sure the ADP will fall for 2024 (we will investigate in Part II: 2024 ADP vs. Fantasy Baseball Projections). I’ll be looking elsewhere when I’m Drafting a Catcher.
Andrés Giménez was one of my biggest disappointments from 2023, as I expected him to take the next step. He still had a higher FP than Teoscar Hernandez, who had what appeared to be a decent first year in Seattle, hitting 26 HR and driving in 93. However, diving deeper into his FP, it makes more sense that he was one-and-done in the North-West. His ISO was the worst mark of his career, and when not swatting the ball out of the ballpark, the dude was not getting on base. Yet, the money machine that is the Los Angeles Dodgers rewards him with a one-year, $23.5 million deal.
Bo Bichette is a waste of a draft pick. There, I said it. I’ve said it in years past, too. Finally, some people are hearing me. But others are not, basing their arguments on his .306 BA or even his 125 wRC+ in 2023. Yet, this was done via a .355 BABIP. Mind you, his career BABIP lies at .349, but how long will he be able to maintain that? The power has declined steadily over the past three seasons, as have the walks. I will give Bichette this: his 115 K in 601 PA (19.1%) was an improvement and aided the BA. (See also Peña, Jeremy, whose power dried up)
Coming off a down year, Eugenio Suárez will look to turn things around out in the desert. Now a D-back, he will bat in a better hitter’s park, but he will need to cut down on the strikeouts. He has been north of 30% for the past two seasons.
Trea Turner does not take walks, and 2023’s 150 strikeouts were a career-high. He is what he is, which is one of the best power-hitting shortstops in the game with a 30-40 SB upside.
Julio Rodríguez went down in all categories compromising FP, even though the ADP rose. Will his price be worth it in 2024? It depends on whether we are getting First-half Julio (.162 ISO, .314 wOBA, 0.28 BB/K) or Second-half Julio (.270 ISO, .391 wOBA, 0.26 BB/K). Meanwhile, 110 picks later, Tyler O’Neill posted a better FP. I find it cute when people in the industry still try to make O’Neill a thing, but if he can lift the ball over (or bounce off) the Green Monster enough times in his new stomping grounds, they just may get their wish finally.
Dansby Swanson lowered his strikeouts significantly in 2023, from 182 in 2022 to 154. He also walked more (49 to 66). As a result, his 0.43 BB/K mark was the second-highest of his career, trailing only his 0.49 mark in 2017, his first full season in the bigs. While this did increase his overall FP, his ISO and wOBA remained average. At 22/81/80/.244/.328/.416, he’s just a guy.
We find Alejandro Kirk and Steven Kwan higher up on our list of 2023 ADP vs. Fantasy Baseball Production. Don’t be fooled; they are there due to both having a 0.93 BB/K. While they bring that to the table, the power was downright pathetic, and neither hit for a high average. While I can see Kwan’s average positively regressing, I’m not so sure about Kirk.
Pitchers: ERA + ABA + SIERA = FP
BEST OF THE TOP 60
Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider jockeyed for No. 1 fantasy pitcher last season, but if we look at FP, it wasn’t as close as it seemed. However, Cole was a first-rounder, while Strider was going a few rounds later. That will not be the case for 2024. A guy who belongs in the conversation is Kevin Gausman, and it’s about time we put some respect on his name. After all, he’s gotten the job done at an elite level in enough places and looks comfortable in Toronto. Meanwhile, Max Fried was dominant when on the mound. Injuries limited him to 14 GS (77.2 IP) in 2023, and he has one more year to prove his durability after signing his arbitration-agreeing $15 million contract.
On the reliever side, Josh Hader had a tremendous bounce-back year after a turbulent 2022. Although, his season had some luck to do with it. As you can see, his SIERA was much higher than the ERA, and dividing deeper, his xFIP was 3.52. Mostly, the disparity is due to a 13% BB rate. However, the BABIP and LOB% returned closer to career norms. He doesn’t strike people out at the same level as his heyday in Milwaukee, but Houston did well to ink the free agent. Meanwhile, Devin Williams (5.72 FP, 142.36 Consensus ADP) continues to get it done at a great value.
Emmanuel Clase (8.18 FP, 70.45 Consensus ADP) chimes in as the third-ranked RP per FP. He had more than his fair share of blips and blown saves (12) in 2023. But when he was good, he was outright dominant. We need to see improvement on the 21.2% K-rate, well below his average. Furthermore, if we waited till roughly 125, Jordan Romano would provide a comparable 8.25 FP at a much cheaper price. And if we waited till just about 150, Ryan Pressly posted an identical FP as Clase, but he will set up Hader now.
Jacob deGrom is progressing well from June UCL surgery and expects to start throwing during Spring Training, assuming there haven’t been any setbacks. He will be 36 by August, which is when deGrom hopes to rejoin the Rangers’ rotation.
Due to anterior capsule surgery, Brandon Woodruff was limited to 11 GS and 67 IP last year. He is a free agent and will miss the 2024 season. When he is pitching, he is dominant. The operative word is when. If he can rehab this latest injury and prove healthy, MLB teams would be wise to take a shot on the 31-year-old. Woodruff is a stash candidate for dynasty and deep keeper leagues.
As long as fellow fantasy managers allow me to wait on pitching and grab Logan Webb in the sixth or seventh round, I will swoop him up every time. Suckers! His changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball. Still, yet, no SP was a greater value than Blake Snell. Albeit, his 99 walks in 180 IP were more reminiscent of No. 99, Ricky ‘Wild Thing’ Vaughn. However, besides a waning level of control, Snell limited baserunners overall and won the NL Cy Young. As of this writing, the free agent remains without a team, as does Clayton Kershaw following offseason left-shoulder surgery. While Kersh’s numbers were good, his stuff is gone, and his career is in jeopardy. He is “hopeful to return at some point (this) summer.”
Tyler Glasnow gave his fantasy managers a nice return on his 77.18 Consensus ADP… but for only 120 innings, which was a career-high. The Dodgers are a believer; are you? Yet, Pablo López (8.79 FP) provided similar returns at 125.73. He obviously dug Minnesota.
Joe Musgrove provided his managers with good returns (8.55 FP). However, he missed the bulk of the year with various injuries and from dropping a weight on his foot like a dingus. He was limited to 17 GS (97.1 IP).
George Kirby is pretty good at baseball. His low walk rates are appealing and ensure consistency on a year-to-year basis. Kirby’s best pitch is his split-finger fastball, which generates a 35.7% whiff rate. The splitter along with his four-seam fastball (28%) are his primary put-away pitches. In fact, his whole pitching arsenal is darn right sexy (see Kirby’s pitch type chart inset)! I see him vying for the AL Cy Young Award this season and will be targeting him in my drafts.
Did you know Corbin Burnes has two intentional walks… in his six-year career?! You do now. Burnes was also off his game in 2023 and not worth his ADP. However, Luis Castillo was available roughly 46 picks later and posted a finer FP in his first full season at T-Mobile in Seattle. Love the upside even more for 2024!
Burnes’ teammate (for now), Freddy Peralta, finally showed what he was capable of by putting together a fine season. The 30 starts were a career-high, and I nearly had a heart attack seeing a pitcher in this age hit the plateau (I jest, sort of). Peralta posted a 9.11 FP at a 116.45 Consensus ADP, rewarding those who took a shot. Pov has his eyes set on Peralta if the price is right (100-110 ADP range).
It’s not every day you see a pitcher’s ERA and SIERA (Skill-interactive Earned Run Average) equate. Max Scherzer did so last season. Makes sense since he was virtually a three-outcome pitcher: strikeout, walk or long fly. His 14.6% HR/FB rate was by far the worst of his career for a full season (excluding 2020’s 14.3% mark). The next closest HR/FB rate was 2011’s 12.6% mark, while Max was a Detroit Tiger. He will be out until June or July following offseason back surgery and is best served for a later-round stash (rounds 12-14). Yet, a guy who should be rising in ADP is Logan Gilbert, who provided a better FP (9.27) than both Max and Justin Verlander (9.36 FP, 34.73 Consensus ADP). Target acquired!
Besides the Seattle young arms, we need to travel across the country and 30-40 spots later to get to another young arm and target of mine, Jesús Luzardo. Anyone who knows me or chatted with me on Discord or Twitter is aware of my affection for The Lizard King. Luzardo did not disappoint me in 2023, posting his first 200-K season and providing excellent fantasy production (9.17). Even as he neared and cruised past his career-high in innings, he seemed to get even stronger! Merrill Kelly (9.17 FP, 138.75 Consensus ADP) and Jordan Montgomery (9.20, 140.70) were equal values.
Chris Sale was decent and actually returned value in 2023 (9.72 FP, 158.82 Consensus ADP). He tossed 20 starts and 102.2 innings, so we’d like to see more in his big-time upgrade to the Atlanta Braves.
WORST OF THE TOP 60
Robbie Ray only made it into the fourth inning of his first start before going down with injury in 2023. His stats don’t mean much, but tell that to the masses who took him around 65 in their drafts. Now with San Francisco, Ray is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and is not expected back until after the All-Star break. In the same draft range, Triston McKenzie also had a brief 2023 (4 GS, 16 IP), calling his durability into question. Such promise, yet so frail.
It was a nightmare first season in New York for Carlos Rodón. Fourteen starts and 64.1 innings into his Yankee tenure, his six-year, $162M contract could go down as the worst in history unless things improve. Injuries reared their ugly head again. Who saw that coming? ??
Alek Manoah (14.13 FP) may need to learn how to hit and play in the outfield, à la Rick Ankiel. However, his FP was still .01 better than Rodón and .08 better than Rodón’s former teammate, Luis Severino, who now takes his comeback to Queens.
In 2023, at a 98.61 Consensus ADP, Hunter Greene had a 4.82 ERA with a much better 3.74 SIERA. To take the next step, Greene needs to reduce the base runners and hard contact (2.42 ABA, 10.93 FP). His 22 starts (112 IP) were interrupted by injury, so let’s see if a continued run can offer more consistency. Teammate Nick Lodolo was limited to seven starts (34.1 IP) due to injury. If both can rebound, the Reds have an outside shot at the best rotation in the league!
Before last season, Steamer projected Sandy Alcantara to have a 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 3.45 SIERA for an 8.22 FP at an ADP of 29.94. I thought Steamer was smoking some potent cheeba. Obviously, whether it was due to the new rules or other advanced analysis, they were onto something and then some. Alcantara’s ERA was 4.14. His ABA was 1.77. And his SIERA was 4.24 for an ugggggly 10.15 FP at a 15.09 ADP! Will Sandy bounce back in 2025 following Tommy John surgey last October? Time will tell. And will Aaron Nola, who had the same lame 10.15 FP at a 20.24 ADP bounce back in this upcoming season? His SIERA was much better than his ERA, per usual. It’s about time the on-field results match his predictive stats, or else Nola may be one big outlier.
Trailing Alcantara and Nola, Dylan Cease disappointed fantasy managers in 2023 with a 10.77 FP at a 23.91 Consensus ADP. A big culprit was his 2.09 ABA, heavily influenced by his 79 BB in 177 IP (10.1% BB rate). However, as long as Cease and his mighty slider keep racking up the strikeouts (214, 27.3% K rate), he will be a hot commodity.
Overall, after studying each chart, we see further proof of how ADP does not equate to fantasy production. As a side note, we also see why it is important to wait on pitching. Beat it into your heads come draft season!
You may be thinking, “Well, all of this information is great for WHAT HAPPENED, but WHAT WILL HAPPEN in 2024?” Part II of this article compares the current Consensus ADP for 2024 to their Steamer projections in all the above statistics.
Download the complete list of Top 100 Hitters ADP vs. FP, Top 60 Pitchers ADP vs. FP:
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