In Part II, Rob Povia reviews Fantasy Baseball ADP and 2023 projected production. Using consensus draft values across league hosts, we create a larger picture.
Now that we created a larger picture of players from last season in Part I: 2023 ADP vs. Fantasy Baseball Production, let’s look at Steamer projections and see how this process matches up with the ADP leading into the 2024 season. We will once again utilize consensus draft values across the most popular league hosts – NFBC, Fantrax, Yahoo, RT Sports, CBS and ESPN (ADP as of 2/3/24).
Hitters: ISO*2.25 + wOBA + BB/K = FP
BEST OF THE TOP 100
Steamer feels Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 80 walks to 84 strikeouts were a bit of an aberration in 2023, as he had never come close to equating. Their 0.73 BB/K projection seems fair and would be his second-best mark. If he continues to get on base at an unworldly rate, Acuña could top last season’s historic year. Additionally, FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections have the reigning National League MVP at a “modest” .318 BA, 37 HR, 55 SB and 7.3 Wins Above Replacement (Top WAR Projection). Acuña has a power/speed combo that we covet so much in fantasy baseball. However, if he lives up to the projections, he will be hoisting a Triple Crown trophy along with a second MVP award. If you have the top pick in your fantasy baseball draft, he is the clear option.
As an aside, the last back-to-back MVP was Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and ’13.
If you are selecting in the middle of the first round, you can do no wrong with Mookie Betts. He’s as consistent as it comes, and his 5.9 Proj. WAR is fourth in all of baseball and second in the NL only to Acuña. Add in eligibility at 2B as well as OF, and now we are cooking!
In Part I, we pondered if Julio Rodríguez’s price would be worth it in 2024. His 2023 season was a tale of two halves, and Steamer feels he should ride between the two and closer to his rookie-year stats. However, at a 3.33 Consensus ADP and 1.2205 Proj. FP, is it enough? Rodríguez has 62 stolen bases in 287 games – 37 just last year – so he brings that power/speed combo. He also brings a wicked high K-rate at the plate. Ironically, Fernando Tatis Jr. has the same 1.2205 Proj. FP at a Consensus ADP of 8.93. FWIW, Tatis did come back last season and play 141 healthy games with 635 PA in a much more serious, albeit more mediocre, effort.
A third overall pick is too high for Julio, especially when Juan Soto lurks six spots later. I already told you Soto will be my most drafted player, with him now calling the Bronx home. Most of this conviction was based on past performance and how I project his game to excel at Yankee Stadium. After seeing his Steamer projections, they are higher on Soto than I am, which was the final piece to solidify my beliefs. While projection models can be misleading and inaccurate, they can support your beliefs and research into a player as a final piece of the puzzle. They can also indicate red flags. This is not the case with Soto. Even if he comes closer to his 1.02 BB/K from last year rather than his 1.20 projection, anything over one is pretty, pretty good. Soto’s FP is indisputable.
In case you have doubts, allow me to put them aside for you. FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections have Soto with a Proj. 6.8 WAR – second to Acuña, No. 1 in AL to Aaron Judge’s 6.1. Although, Steamer has Judge below career norms throughout their projections. I digress. Furthermore, Soto’s Proj. 171 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) is tops in all of baseball, putting him just ahead of Yordan Alvarez, Acuña, Judge and some Japanese player. If Soto reaches 39 HR (would be a career-high) with a .415 wOBA, you will be drafting #PeakSoto!
Shohei Ohtani (1.555 FP, 12.70 Consensus ADP) is still worth the cost. We know this to be true even with his arm on the mend. However, it’s not a slam dunk when looking at Steamer’s projections, which have Ohtani closer to his 2022 form at the plate than last year’s herculean effort. Is it the jump to the National League and unfamiliarity with NL arms? Maybe, as it took Ohtani just shy of two and a half years in the States before he started clubbing the ball like Babe Ruth. But with how often the leagues play each other, this theory has less credo. Ohtani will turn 30 this season; is Steamer thinking the body is beginning to fail him? Ok, that’s legit.
No matter which way you slice it, if Ohtani provides 34/95/90/15 with a .273/.356/.519 slash and 142 wRC+ at pick 12, we gucci. But I say he gets on base more than Steamer projects due to the lineup he enters and an educated eye at the plate. Plus, Ohtani should get more pitches to hit, and he relocates to a better HR-hitting home park. If you miss out on Shohei, Bryce Harper (1.56275, 21.03) would sub in just fine at your UTIL/DH plus with 1B eligibility to boot!
Steamer is keen on my boy Kyle Tucker, who slides in between top guys Acuña and Betts for Proj FP. According to their projections, his ISO would be a three-year high, so I’m not completely sold on the power surge. But I am cool with 30/30 potential every season. Where Steamer is spot on is his wOBA and overall ability to get on base. This is what creates such a solid floor for Tucker. In 674 PA for the 2023 season (career-high), Tucker struck out 13.6% of the time and walked 11.9% (also career-highs). While repeating a 0.87 BB/K is a tall order, we can expect the trend to continue. I mentioned last time that Tucker will be my second choice after Soto; this only solidifies it.
However, if someone snatches Tucker before me, I can go in another direction with my first-round pick and pivot in the next round to teammate Yordan at 17.30 Consensus ADP. The 26-year-old DH/OF was my most targeted player this time last season, and while he didn’t disappoint, Alvarez also didn’t quite live up to my expectations. Steamer feels he will reach and exceed these expectations this season, which makes sense, as I am often a year early on a player having a career year. If Alvarez smashes 39/101/113, that would be a career year.
We identified José Ramírez’s ISO has diminished each of his last three seasons in Part I of this look at ADP vs. FP. Yet, Steamer thinks he will regain some power, nearing his 2022 level. I have my doubts. But we do get solid 20/20 production with a 30/30 ceiling. His keen eye at the dish keeps Ramírez on my FP leaderboard. However, his Consensus ADP has slipped about twelve spots from the 3.58 it was a year ago. The sharps are catching up. If others in your league allow JRam to slip into the thickets of the second round, swoop him up in a scarce position. FWIW, Steamer feels the same story about Alex Bregman if you are still keeping him as a “contingency plan.”
Steamer expects Matt Olson to regress a smidge from his unworldly 2023 season. After all, a .321 ISO is hard to replicate. However, a .274 proj. mark will do just fine for the soon-to-be 30-year-old first baseman, who sports a 1.59 Proj. FP (1.76 in 2023) at a 15.30 Consensus ADP.
As for fellow NL East first baseman Pete Alonso (1.43 Proj. FP, 27.20 Consensus ADP), his Steamer projections are up and down in comparison to his 2023 performance. Here is where it’s important to put down the stat sheet, close the laptop, and use the old noodle. Pete is heading into his final year of arbitration and his first free agency this fall unless New York inks him to an extension or trades him to somebody who will. Not that $20.5 million is anything to sneeze at, but the Polar Bear is looking to get paid. With motivations this high, what type of season do you expect for Alonso? While that kind of pressure can get to anyone, playing under the New York spotlight for five seasons is a good training course. Alonso is the better value for 2024, but I’ll have both in my crosshairs.
You may notice Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is ahead of both Olson and Alonso in Proj. FP. In Part I, we established his saving grace is his selective eye at the dish. Furthermore, the big believers over at Steamer think he will reach his second-highest ISO since his .290 in 2021 (.205 in ‘22, .179 in ‘23). That’s bold! As a result, Vlad Jr. is projected for a +10 home run gain from ‘23 to ‘24, and his 36-homer total puts him among the top 10 projected home run hitters for this year. He’s also projected to be the sixth-best hitter overall in the Majors and the only slugger projected for 30-plus homers with under 100 strikeouts. So, are you a Vladiever? Me, not so much.
Ultimately, Triston Casas (1.52 Proj. FP, 100.33 Consensus ADP) may be the steal of your draft! Casas trails Freddie Freeman’s Proj. FP by only 0.0045. Freeman is an eighth-overall pick. First base is so deep… that’s what she said. Another draft-stealing candidate is Yandy Díaz (1.59, 116.03). He is ahead of Olson’s Proj. FP by 0.002, getting the job done another way. Díaz broke out in 2023, winning the AL batting title with a .330 average and posting career highs in homers (22) and OPS (.932). Steamer doesn’t think a dropoff is coming. He projects to a 4.4 WAR and 144 wRC+ (seventh-best). Finally, many re-drafters have forgotten about “The Italian Nightmare.” Vinnie Pasquantino (1.64, 158.08) also has some questions about health, coming off labrum surgery in his right lead shoulder. But he looks good to me!
While Texas teammates Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are solid fantasy contributors and a fine way to stack your stats, their elevated prices are a tad rich for my blood, especially with limited stealing contributions. Both hitters will continue to enjoy the new rules, but Seager’s season could be delayed due to sports hernia surgery. Semien did give us 25 SB in 2022, but I would prefer his ADP to be lower. Why not go with Gleyber Torres at 94.33?
This is the cheapest we’ve had Mike Trout in years (57.00 Consensus ADP). His health is always in question. The last time Trout played 159 games was… 2016. Heck, the last time he saw 140 games was in 2018! However, when healthy, he’s still one of the best hitters in all of baseball (1.36 Proj. FP). Don’t reach, but see if he slides further! If not, you can select Kyle Schwarber (1.48, 57.50) right there and get even better production with more secure ABs.
Third basemen Austin Riley (1.27 Proj. FP) and Rafael Devers (1.42) can be had between picks 19-25. Who do you prefer? Meanwhile, Gunnar Henderson can be had at 36.40 and has the same Proj. FP as Riley. Technically, Henderson is at 1.26925, and Riley’s is at 1.26825. Finally, offseason right elbow surgery has Manny Machado at a 58.50 Consensus ADP (13.64 in 2023). But even if he can’t take the field come Opening Day, we don’t care for fantasy purposes, as he can slide right into the DH role for San Diego. Machado has a 1.31 Proj. FP (1.25 in 2023).
Adley Rutschman (1.60 Proj. FP, 43.83 Consensus ADP) may not provide the type of power that Cal Raleigh, Francisco Alvarez or the Contreras brothers do from the catcher position. However, Rutschman has shown a penchant for getting on base, and Steamer sees this continuing with a .356 wOBA and 0.85 BB/K projections. In terms of wRC+, he has the top projection in the Majors at the catcher position (130). Adley is also the No. 1 catcher, according to Proj. FP., but if his price is too steep for the young backstop, Will Smith (1.43, 76.43) is a little up the food chain of experience and is the No. 2 catcher. Despite Smith’s power dropping steadily since his rookie year, Steamer feels his ISO will rebound to 2022 levels (.205; .177 in ‘23). Read more of my thoughts on Smith in Part I.
Luis Arraez (1.69 Proj. FP, 156.48 Consensus ADP) is becoming more of a one-trick pony who helps greatly with BA but kills you elsewhere. However, he is effective for points leagues.
One of the early surprises in my fantasy baseball prep is Corbin Carroll’s 4.60 Consensus ADP. Is Carroll already the fourth-best player in baseball? After all, he went 96.18 in fantasy last year and was the 16th pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. He has an incredible memory, too (see Tweet below). In any event, the power/speed tool boxes were checked by stealing 54 bases with 25 HR. The home-run power shocked me a bit since Carroll was scouted as more of a gap-to-gap hitter who could take the ball to all fields. Steamer feels he will maintain an ISO north of .200 while swiping 42 bags, a modest total. If Carroll can improve his plate discipline, he will justify his ADP and vie for the MVP.
WORST OF THE TOP 100
Esteury Ruiz may steal you upward of 70 bags this season. That’s awesome for roto leagues and would give you a clear edge. The price? It’s only a 10th-12th round pick, but Ruiz comes with .249/.314/.373 projections that will tank your other categories. Are you in a points league? Stolen bases better be worth at least two points, if not more.
In 2023, Luis Robert Jr. (1.07 Proj. FP, 33.10 Consensus ADP) had the kind of year we had been hoping for with 38/90/80 and 20 SB. Yet, Steamer is not a fan, with lower ISO, wOBA and wRC+ projections. It does indicate a rise in BB/K, but the mark lies at 0.23, which makes him risky in this draft range. The talent is undeniable, but we need to see more consistency.
I’m not even gonna waste words on Trea Turner (1.07 Proj. FP, 13.08 Consensus ADP). Y’all know my feelings, plus any time I talk smack about Turner, he goes on a run. Based on his ADP, nobody is listening anyway. Keep chasing stolen bases and see where that gets ya. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. has a 5.50 Consensus ADP with a 1.22 Proj. FP and a much higher SB ceiling. Steamer says Witt will have his best year yet, which is common for a third-year player hitting his stride. For my money, I’ll take Witt all day and twice on Sunday, and apparently Kansas City is in agreement. Also, don’t discount Francisco Lindor (1.25, 28.13) if you decide to wait on SS. While it may seem like Lindor has disappointed for New York – the BA was a big issue for his fantasy value last season – he quietly went 30/30.
With Bo Bichette (1.07 Proj. FP, 41.58 Consensus ADP) dropping 15 spots from a year ago, people are recognizing his fantasy futility. In Part I, I pointed out how his .306 BA could fall based on his BABIP. Lo and behold, Steamer sees a drop to .292, which we will still easily take. However, if power is valuable in your league, a .188 ISO is slightly above league average for a top-50 pick. That’s a lot of cheddar for a likely 20/10 season.
Is CJ Abrams the new Trea Turner? His 0.97 Proj. FP seems to support this hypothesis. “But 20/40 upside is sexy, Pov!” I don’t care. Abrams’ 49.03 Consensus ADP at this stage of his development is criminal. A better value for the middle infield would be Matt McLain (1.16, 63.33) if going with a young player. While Abrams was a sixth overall MLB Draft selection in 2019, McLain was 17th overall in 2021. But if you are looking for a young SS in particular, McLain’s teammate Elly De La Cruz (1.03, 32.40) has a higher Proj. FP. However, EDLC is going as high as 22.60 on NFBC, so he may not be a better value. I’d be wary of both young shortstops, but if steals are what you desire, EDLC’s other stats will hurt you less according to projections.
However, the clear answer and best value IMO is Oneil Cruz at a 76.38 Consensus ADP (1.17 Proj. FP). Many casuals will forget this Cruz come draft day, but not us! The shortstop had a promising rookie year in 2022, turning heads with his impressive stature and dynamic skill set, before missing most of last season with a fractured left ankle. Now fully recovered, the 25-year-old could be ready to take off in 2024, with Steamer projecting him for 25/21 with a 110 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR. Only McLain has a higher Proj. WAR (3.3).
Michael Harris II is a safe bet for a 20/20 season with 30/25 upside due to his .202 Proj. ISO. He gets on base via the hit and projects to a .290 BA. We would love it if he could take more walks. However, is a 38.60 Consensus ADP worth his 1.11 Proj. FP? You wonder the same about Adolis García (1.09, 39.83), who Steamer is down on despite coming off a career year and three seasons of 27+ homers/90+ RBI. He does K a ton but provides 10+ steal upside. Meanwhile, fellow outfielder Randy Arozarena (1.27, 41.20) can give you more universal upside than the two. We would love to see his .331 career BABIP play up his BA.
You could do worse than clicking on Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s long-ass name when drafting this spring (1.14 Proj. FP, 133.28 Consensus ADP). He’ll have to hit his way into a crowded Reds lineup, but Steamer thinks that won’t be a problem with a projected .226 ISO and .351 wOBA in 406 PA.
Steamer is not a fan of the Cody Bellinger renaissance, or at the very least, their projections (1.15 Proj. FP) are tempered from last year’s on-field results due to the uncertainty of the address. The 2019 NL MVP remains a free agent as of this writing. While I feel Belli will keep the good times rolling, a 55.90 Consensus ADP is borderline expensive until we know where he’s playing. However, he is cheaper than Harris and García and has just as good stolen-base upside. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi says Bellinger most likely stays in Chicago, which could result in a similar type of year: .307/.356/.525, 26/95/97/20, .218 ISO, .370 wOBA, 0.46 BB/K (1.32 FP).
UPDATE:
Nolan Jones is a trendy pick at 53.48 Consensus ADP. While his 1.20 Proj. FP is mid-range, Steamer (along with most other projection sources) doesn’t buy into his .245 ISO from 2023, and they see it closer to .200 in his second season at Coors Field. Don’t get it twisted; .200 is a great mark we’ll gladly accept. His value will boil down to getting on base and reaching, if not exceeding, his wOBA projections. If he keeps the strikeouts low, Jones has an intriguing ceiling. But Jones has been an up-and-down prospect, and exhausting a fourth-round pick is a big ask.
While I like Royce Lewis (1.207 Proj. FP, 68.10 Consensus ADP) and his long-term outlook, that’s a little high for a player with 280 career MLB PA. As Lewis’ projections indicate, he can hit for power and average but needs more plate discipline at this level. A safer pick with a 1.2055 Proj. FP is Xander Bogaerts (102.93!).
It was a solid 2023 campaign for Nick Castellanos (0.97 Proj. FP, 92.85 Consensus ADP). One that Steamer feels is unrepeatable in 2024. This cool cat is turning 32.
Josh Jung (0.99 Proj. FP, 106.60 Consensus ADP) can bring the boom stick. Steamer feels his ISO will remain consistent with what we’ve seen on this level (.198). However, 0.22 BB/K is ugly and drags down his performance. If Jung works on his eye at the plate and this rate conforms to minor-league levels (0.53 at Triple-A in ‘21), he will be a better fantasy commodity.
J.T. Realmuto’s days of leading the pack at catcher are over. Steamer illustrates the decline (1.05 Proj. FP, 72.10 Consensus ADP). Speaking of decline, Salvador Perez’s 2024 ADP did indeed fall to 153.25 from 110.03 a year ago due to last season’s power outage. Steamer says his ISO will rebound from the .167 it was a year ago but remain below .200. I’ll be looking elsewhere when I’m Drafting a Catcher. A better source of power/average from the catcher position is Yainer Diaz (1.07, 131.60).
Pitchers: ERA + WHIP + FIP = FP
*Note: We used ABA calculations & SIERA last time out, but Steamer doesn’t project those stats, so changed to WHIP & FIP for this analysis.
BEST OF THE TOP 60
Gerrit Cole (8.68 Proj. FP, 15.20 Consensus ADP) is the reigning AL Cy Young award winner, yet Steamer has him regressing big-time in his age-33 season. Managers who rostered Justin Verlander in 2023 can speak to the pitfalls of chasing a previous year’s performance. Verlander posted a 9.36 FP at a 34.73 Consensus ADP (9.76, 117.93 in ‘24). However, JV is 40, and Cole is a different arm. While I feel Steamer’s projections are way too harsh and a far cry from last season, I don’t expect Cole to replicate last season’s CYY effort. Health permitting, he’ll be a Top-5 fantasy SP, but there is too much risk for me to exhaust such a high pick. I’ll wait for my arms.
Conversely, Steamer has Spencer Strider progressing in 2024. Strider would have his blow-up moments in 2023, but much of this was due to poor luck – .316 BABIP, 70.3% Left on Base. His ERA soared to 3.86, but his 3.09 xERA, 2.85 FIP, 2.92 xFIP and 2.86 SIERA told another story. As his mound performance stabilizes and evens out, reaching his favorable Steamer projections will be a piece of cake. On top of Strider’s 3.18 Proj. ERA, FanGraphs has him finishing with 15 wins and 257 punchies. Those three projections lead all of baseball and give the Braves ace a legit shot at an MLB Triple Crown. So, if you don’t want to wait long for your top arm, click on Strider’s name.
Peep out Zach Eflin (8.42 Proj. FP, 87.13 Consensus ADP)! ?
Corbin Burnes (8.68 Proj. FP, 26.05 Consensus ADP) was off his game in 2023 and not worth his 7.97 ADP. While his performance should stabilize and improve this season, his cost is down, which makes Burnes an interesting SP1 investment*. I’m not feeling him in the second round, but a third or (even better) fourth-round sniping would be excellent if you can pull it off! If not, no worries. Zack Wheeler (8.36, 30.58) will be there with a better 2024 outlook. According to Steamer projections, Kevin Gausman (8.11, 31.40) would be the best value of the three. In Part I, we discussed how Gausman belongs in the conversation for No. 1 fantasy pitcher, and projections agree. I didn’t plan on targeting KG, but I may have to now.
*UPDATE: Burnes shifts to the AL East!
Finally, fantasy managers are smartening up on Logan Webb.
Is smartening a word? I had to look it up to be sure. It is but still doesn’t look right.
These bastards are not allowing me to grab Webb in the sixth or seventh anymore, as it will take a 56th overall to land the 27-year-old Giant RHP (last year’s Consensus ADP: 82.48). He projects for another fine season, albeit with an inflated ERA from his 2.90 mark in 2022. But these types of numbers were good for second in the NL Cy Young Award voting last season. If not for an unexpected Herculean effort by Blake Snell, Webb would have won. If he reaches the 200-inning threshold in 2024 with a 3.53 ERA, he could be in the running again. After all, his 4.1 Proj. WAR is fifth among starting pitchers (4.9 in ‘23). I would be blessed to get Webb and the next hurler as consecutive picks in my drafts!
Allow Tarik Skubal to serve as a reminder of why you can wait on pitching. At a 53.35 Consensus ADP, he can provide you with a 7.84 FP, which is better than Gausman. If you are not a believer in projections, that’s ok. Down the stretch last season, the 27-year-old lefty looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball. Skubal posted a 2.80 ERA and 11.4 K/9 after returning from injury in July, and you have to be excited for what a full season may bring. The 3.36 Proj. FIP indicates his ERA is for real or could come in lower than projections. As a result, his 1.14 Proj. WHIP is fourth-best in the Majors. Skubal projects to be a top-10 pitcher by WAR (4.0) and to have the second-best ERA among starters behind Strider at a cheaper cost. Target acquired!
With a 7.98 Proj. FP, Steamer believes in Tyler Glasnow as much as the Dodgers do (see Part I). He’s also risen 30 spots in Consensus ADP to find out if he can be durable for 162. My best advice is, if you draft Glasnow, trade him after a spectacular start and before he wears down or, worse yet, succumbs to injury.
The price has risen for Luis Castillo, coming off a successful first full season at T-Mobile in Seattle. No shocker there, as we love the upside. Steamer says he’s still a better value than Cole or Burnes. Also, with a slightly lower Proj. FIP than his 3.81 mark in 2023, his ERA should come closer to last season’s 3.34 than what Steamer projects. Inversely, Framber Valdez will be less expensive in 2024 (61.15 Consensus ADP, 43.30 last year). While his ERA and Losses rose in ‘23, his K & BB rates were full-season career highs (excluding 2020), and his xFIP indicated some poor luck. The issues were career-lows in groundball rate (54.2%) and fly-ball rate (25.4%) while giving up a 20.4% line-drive rate (highest in four years). He will need to turn these around to match Steamer projections but is a value, no question.
Speaking of rising prices, Pablo López is up 82 spots from this time last year. He had a tremendous first year in Minnesota with a 3.66 ERA and 234 K, by far a career-high. Steamer feels he will do even better this season and reward those who pay the higher price. López’s 4.1 Proj. WAR is tied with Webb for fifth among starting pitchers (4.5 in ‘23).
Devin Williams is the first RP coming off draft boards at a 57.25 Consensus ADP. We can see why with a 7.58 Proj. FP. However, he’s not the great value he was last season, but this was to be expected after a 36-save season. There is a chance he could blow by his projections. Roughly thirteen picks later, Emmanuel Clase has similar projections yet a slightly higher Proj. FP to that of Williams. But as we discussed last time, Clase needs to rebound in the K-rate department and miss more bats. Meanwhile, old friend Josh Hader (7.98, 66.35) is the second closer coming off the board. I prefer the “Airbender.”
Steamer says it will be a mighty return for Edwin Díaz after missing all of 2023. On top of having better projections than Williams, Hadar and Clase for ERA, WHIP, FIP and FP, Díaz could earn 35 SV while clipping batters at a 36.7% K-rate (13.4 K/9). Of his projections, the saves lead the Majors. The ERA is second among relievers (Jhoan Duran), as is his proj. strikeout total of 95 (José Alvarado) and K/9 (Aroldis Chapman). However, Díaz’s proj. K-rate is No. 1, as strikeouts won’t be a problem. Always with the Mets closer, if he wants to return to his dominant ways of 2022, he needs to keep the WHIP down. Diaz’s 1.05 Proj. WHIP is best for relievers and second in baseball to former teammate Jacob deGrom.
If you miss on all these closers, don’t sweat it. The position is volatile anyway. Plus, Duran (6.38 Proj. FP, 90.60 Consensus ADP) and Rays closer Pete Fairbanks (7.13, 142.13) are much better values. We know Duran’s Proj. ERA is No. 1, but his FIP supports a mid-twos mark, and his WHIP could be top-5 among relievers. The K rate will be elite (30%+; 12+ K/9), but walks are an issue at times. There is a lot to like about Duran. However, according to Steamer and my FP metric, there is no greater RP value than Mariners closer Andrés Muñoz (7.00, 136.90). Muñoz may win some leagues from a hard-to-peg position… Target acquired!
The good news is Steamer expects Freddy Peralta to exceed his rock-solid 2023. His 8.67 Proj. FP is better than Cole and Burnes! The bad news is his price went way up from last year and above my budget for Peralta, which is in the 100-110 ADP range (currently 60.65). I may need to search my couch for some loose change.
Max Fried (8.44 Proj. FP, 60.13 Consensus ADP) and Snell (8.68. 59.10) are being closely targeted in the same area of drafts due to a similar outlook. One pitcher has a team; the other does not as of this writing. However, this is Fried’s final year of arbitration eligibility, and he is scheduled to become a free agent at the end of the 2024 season. Maybe the lefties have more in common than I thought. Steamer is not expecting a repeat Cy Young performance for Snell. Neither are we.
Logan Gilbert’s ADP didn’t rise as much as I thought (72.48), while his projections say he’ll be the same solid arm as in 2023, if not better (8.99 Proj. FP). Still, five picks later, Steamer thinks Grayson Rodriguez will continue his development by taking a huge step forward with his 8.60 Proj. FP. After another round or two, teammate Kyle Bradish (92.83) is available with a strong chance to outperform his 9.11 Proj. FP. His 3.87 Proj. ERA and 1.26 WHIP seem a little harsh for the breakout stud pitcher. If he falls this deep in your draft, swoop in!
UPDATE: Hold that thought on Bradish, who will start the year on the IL.
WORST OF THE TOP 60
I know what you’re thinking, and no, I did not mix up the lists despite the star power present here. The Consensus ADP values show us that, but they also show how the industry is catching up to us, as the ADP values are congruent to resultant fantasy production. However, we can still see disparities and edges throughout the chart.
Tough to fall further off a cliff than Cristian Javier did in 2023. As a result, his ADP has increased by nearly 100 spots, and Steamer doesn’t offer many bright spots for a bounce back in ‘24. While it’s possible he bucks the system and returns to 2022 form, I’d rather have that be someone else’s problem.
Buyer beware for Dylan Cease (9.74 Proj. FP) – fantasy drafters as well as potential trade suitors of the Chicago White Sox – as Steamer doesn’t see much of a rebound with a 4.13 ERA and an unsettling 4.30 FIP. The key will be his WHIP. Does Cease come closer to his 2022 WHIP (1.11) or 2023 (1.42)? The cost is way down to find out (95.65 Consensus ADP, 23.91 in ‘23).
Meanwhile, Walker Buehler’s projections are all over the place, considering he threw only 65 innings in 2022 and just two in 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. For example, while Steamer has his ERA at 4.35, ZiPS (another projection system) has him at 3.56. We also don’t know if his season will start on time. LA may want to have him work on the side initially to manage his 2024 workload. Buehler’s Steamer FP lies at 10.02 with an ADP cost of 107.85 due to the uncertainty.
I’m not the type of hombre to pat myself on the back, but I kinda feel like I willed Tanner Bibee into existence in 2023, as he was my most recommended arm in our 24/7 MLB Seasonal Discord channel. An afterthought in ‘23 drafts – after all, he went in the fifth round of the 2021 MLB Draft – it pays to pay attention to college players. I was familiar with the former Cal State Fullerton Titan and thought his gnarly fastball/slider combo would pay off in the big leagues one day due to superior control at a young age. Bibee has gone from a 599+ ADP to a 124.40 Consensus mark for ‘24. A big help has been the development of his changeup, creating a 37.8% Whiff rate and 26.4% Put-Away mark in 2023 (16.6% usage).
For all my accolades, Steamer laid a big “steamer” on Bibee’s projections (4.20 Proj. ERA, 9.80 Proj. FP). I respectfully disagree. Chris Bassitt’s projections seem off, too (9.90, 133.05), but I can buy it more for a guy who is turning 35.
Would anybody be surprised if Hunter Greene (9.77 Proj. FP, 145.10 Consensus ADP) cruised past his projections this season? For more on the Reds’ rotation, see Part I.
Eury Pérez (9.40 Proj. FP, 83.73 Consensus ADP) electrified the rookie world in 2023 with a 3.15 ERA and 108 K in 91.1 IP. However, he also had 31 BB (8.3% BB rate) and a 4.11 FIP (4.24 xFIP). Steamer thinks his 2024 ERA will come closer to the FIP as the 20-year-old acclimates to the Majors. After all, Pérez only pitched 112 Double-A innings before his call-up. Meanwhile, Jesús Luzardo is going six picks after Pérez despite a much better 8.78 Proj. FP. Coming off his first 200-K season, Luzardo looks to continue his breakout momentum. With Sandy Alcantara sidelined after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Marlins need Luzardo, who is projected for a 3.74 ERA and his second straight 200-K season. He projects for 3.3 WAR, while Pérez is at 2.1.
Bobby Miller (9.32 Proj. FP, 87.33 Consensus ADP) is in the same boat as Pérez, or at least Steamer views the two young hurlers similarly. Both have extremely bright futures that require patience in 2024. Interestingly, Cole Ragans (9.33) slides right between the two for FP at an ADP cost of 107.95.
Much hype for MLB newcomer and Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. As a result, many fantasy managers are grabbing the Japanese right-hander in the fourth to fifth round. But how will he adjust to tossing an MLB ball from the soil and clay? Steamer accounts for this in his ERA and FIP projections (9.13 Proj. FP). Kodai Senga (8.91, 66.58) adjusted in short order and was elite in the second half last season. Whereas, Yu Darvish reached his dominance in year two and posted closer numbers to where Yamamoto is expected to reach this season. One thing is for certain; the strikeouts will be there (Proj. 200 K in 184 IP). Senga recorded 200 K in his first MLB season, so perhaps Yamamoto rides closer to the 2023 Cy Young contender. FWIW, Yamamoto is one of 14 pitchers projected for 200-plus strikeouts in 2024. In redraft leagues, he’s riskier.
Fantasy managers are growing impatient with Aaron Nola (8.80 Proj. FP, 49.18 Consensus ADP), who has fallen 29 spots from this time a year ago. Steamer thinks he can bounce back from a substandard 2023 (10.15 FP). After all, he did strike out 202 batters last year, and Steamer says he should top 200 again. Still, will we pay this price to find out, and even if he dips back into the threes for his ERA, is that good enough per his ADP? I have my doubts. A better bet in this draft range is Zac Gallen (8.77, 35.53). Also, Ray’s 2023 Breakout Pitcher, Justin Steele (8.76, 98.18), projects to perform equally well for a much cheaper price.
After going through the data for the last two articles, the evidence is clear. ADP does not indicate resultant fantasy production. While it can be a decent road map, you can go your own way. Hopefully, at the very least, I’ve given you tools in the past two pieces to help make Your Draft Position list. Projecting players’ performances may be a fool’s errand in this topsy-turvy world we live in, but if you examine how a player has performed in the past and match it with current trends, we can buck the system…
Download the complete list of Top 100 Hitters ADP vs. Proj. FP, Top 60 Pitchers ADP vs. Proj. FP
Don’t miss a beat for your fantasy baseball drafts…
Check out our Draft Guide Welcome Page!
