
We all have our wish lists.
No matter whether you’re a 10-year-old kid writing to Santa or an “adult model” with an OnlyFans profile, we all have em.
This one is mine for Fantasy Baseball.
The offseason can be a cold, dark, lonely place. Nevermore so than this past one. Major League Baseball barely made it through a 60-game season thanks to the pandemic. Glass-half-full thinking says the season was traversed, as was the postseason, and the Los Angeles Dodgers were crowned our World Champions. Still, yet, were any of us sure the 2021 season would start on time? And with what rules would the game be played by? We are still waiting for some of these answers. There is so much uncertainty in this world, now more than ever. However, what I learned from last year’s pause in action was there really is no such thing as a pause if you’re a fantasy baseball player, at least if you are a serious one. Much like the players themselves, I stayed loose, and I stayed active.
By active, I mean staying on top of team and players news, even if articles were few and far between. Utilizing the extra time, I crammed past seasons’ numbers to establish firmer baselines, going back three years or even five where I could. Identification of trends made me view certain players in a different light. In a sense (a very broad sense), the delay in the 2020 season was a blessing. I was able to create a more refined Wish List of targets, ascertain those targets in drafts, develop balanced rosters to battle a choppy season, and capture victories. After the season was complete, I went right back to cram mode for 2021. A dedication towards a 24/7/365 system has me prepared for whatever may come this season and ready to once again turn lemons into lemonade.
Now, I firmly believe that if you have something great (or at least what I perceive as great), you share it! Below, you’ll find player breakdowns of my more sought-after targets at each position with some corresponding data. Disclaimer: The following commentary and analysis do not represent the thoughts and views of Fantasy Guru Rankings, Ray’s Players to Target or Vlad’s Draft Book, although great minds do think alike from time to time. Read on at your own risk!
Fantasy Baseball Draft Wish List – The Hitters
Sean Murphy – Oakland Athletics, C
Oakland and fantasy owners alike must have been thrilled to see the way Murphy concluded the 2020 season. The 26-year-old catcher led his team in OPS (1.062) and HR (5) during the final month. Furthermore, Murph has slashed .237/.355/.491 across 63 major league games (2019-20), including .277/.424/.638 in those 16 September games of 2020. The rookie also finished the season as the A’s best hitter, and he is almost assuredly a perennial All-Star behind the plate. Boasting a 133 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) in his young career, the mark is not an outlier in comparison to his minor-league numbers – 136 in 140 Triple-A plate appearances (2019), 131 in 289 Double-A PA (2018), 130 in 178 Single-A+ PA (2017). These are solid numbers, especially for a backstop.
Murph’s power is legit with a .254 ISO in his major league career. One would expect this to decline, but I could still see a mark in the .170-.190 range. He should work on his plate discipline as he has a 26.5% K-rate so far in the majors. But thanks to a 17.1% BB-rate in 2020, his K/BB at least decreased to 1.77. Based on reviewing his minor-league stats, I expect the K-rate to decrease with more experience at this level, even if the BB-rate does too.
Murphy’s spot in the lineup is secure. He showed an ability to handle a heavy workload coming off left knee surgery in 2019 and brings solid defense behind the dish (see catcher link below). Plus, if he needs a day off from catching, the possibility of DH exists with Khris Davis now in Texas. Fangraphs has Murphy slated to reside in the five-hole, and a 3-4-5-6 of Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Murphy and Mitch Moreland is, how you say, “Very Nice!” Offseason surgery for a collapsed lung will put Murphy behind the eight ball a bit heading into the season, but assuming he passes his physical after reporting to camp on 2/21 without issues, the team expects him to still be ready for Opening Day. With the arm of a Greek god and bat in tow, Murphy may just be scratching the surface of stardom.
For more on Drafting a Catcher, click the link!
Josh Bell – Washington Nationals, 1B
Ray is gonna hate me for this one. I may very well be fired on the spot for making such a recommendation. But I have to speak my truth… and the truth is the truth!
Mr. Flowers wrote about Bell and other Last Year’s Bums. He stated, “his entire fantasy resume has been built on one half-season.” Hard to argue when the first-half of 2019 was vastly better than the second half. And in 2020, he hit .226/.305/.364 with a .669 OPS and eight home runs in 57 games. What occurred is he got enamored with the long ball. Ray is right; Bell is not a 35+ HR type of hitter. As a result, the swing got long. “Looking back at this past year, I think that things got long,” Bell said of his swing. “I feel like I was kind of jerking into my front side just a little more than I’d like to. … I just kind of was jumping toward the ball, and that doesn’t play at this level. That doesn’t play with guys with high velo.”
By now, we all know of the Washington Nationals acquisition of Bell from the Pirates on Christmas Eve for right-handed pitchers Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean. The Nats prioritized Bell as a bounce-back candidate. The move provides a much better lineup around Bell and will result in more hittable pitches (Fangraphs slates Bell to hit third between Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber/Starlin Castro). In addition, Washington has developed a hitting program designed to cut down the long swing. So, the expectation is a reshifting of his focus & this program can return the form. Bit of a gamble, I get it. But in his career, Bell has hit .261/.349/.466 with a .814 OPS. He was consistent before the spike in 2019 with a 17.8% K-rate and 13.2% BB-rate in the prior season. Furthermore, his career wOBA is .343 with a 113 wRC+.
His BAT projections are .264/.350/.483, 29 HR, 83 R, 89 RBI and 95 wRC. These levels are not only doable when all things are considered, but they are also in line with previous performance. A potential value pick per his NFBC ADP (153.55, 1/1-present).
Nick Madrigal – Chicago White Sox, 2B
Called into action for the big club with the absence of minor league baseball in 2020, Nick Madrigal was precisely as advertised: high on contact, low on power. I’m excited to see what the 23-year-old can do in his next taste of the big leagues. His .340 BA ranked sixth among hitters with 100 PA or more, while his .304 xBA laid 14th in the same group. A high contact rate of 92.4% supports such measures and was second only to Eric Sogard (93.0%). As a result, Madrigal’s 6.4% K-rate was second-lowest among hitters with >100 PA (#1 – Tommy La Stella – 5.3%). The dude just makes contact with everything. In 15 of his 29 games, Madrigal made contact on 100% of his swings, including fouls. Luis Robert only had two such games in 56, and he finished second for AL Rookie of the Year.
There’s a lot to like about Nick Madrigal’s game, yet his ability to make such great contact undermines his on-base percentage by lowering his walk totals. Despite having the .340 BA, his OBP was only .376. I’d like to see a more selective approach at the plate to raise a dreadfully low 3.7% BB-rate. Still not great, at least his rate sat between 7.8 and 9.7 between 2018-19. If he can add more walks, the OBP will push into the .400 range and be a benefit in a multitude of leagues.
The hitting grade is a robust 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, according to MLB Pipeline, but his power is graded at just 35. The hard-hit rate sucked – an unsightly 20.8% – so Madrigal’s no help in that department. However, he does bring a strong speed tool to the workshop and is capable of 20-25 stolen bases. The speed score is 6.6, 7.0 and 5.8 over the last three years. He didn’t run much in 2020 due to a dislocated shoulder keeping him at far less than 100 percent. Expect this to change in 2021, and a fully healthy Madrigal will only improve his ability to make harder contact towards league average. He is expected to be playing in Cactus League games come early March, following rehab from his offseason shoulder surgery to fully correct the issue.
Madrigal will only continue to grow and is the best pure-hitting prospect I’ve seen in quite some time. Dynasty owners already have him on lockdown, but I’m optimistic about his ability to contribute in mixed leagues and keepers, both across 4-of-5 roto categories as well as point-based leagues and especially if moved to top of the lineup (currently projected to hit ninth by Fangraphs). His draft-day price is modest (NFBC ADP 191.45, 1/1-present), and I will be glad to take him off people’s hands in the 12-14th rounds.
Austin Riley – Atlanta Braves, 3B
If I’m able to snag Madrigal, I can look to make up for the deficiency in power with Riley. Wait, hear me out before you rush me to the Gallows Pole. The jury is still out on whether he’ll live up to expectations. Many others have soured on Riley after struggling over the final three months of his 2019 rookie season and the final three weeks of 2020. I get it. But there is reason for optimism.
In 2019, Riley had 297 PA and produced a below-average 86 OPS+. Same story in 2020, as Riley had 206 PA and an 86 OPS+. However, the script was rewritten if you observed the chase rates. One could plainly see Riley chasing less and making contact more, and the data backed up this observation.
2019: 41.3% O-Swing, 73.7% Z-Contact, 63.2% Contact
2020: 37.1% O-Swing, 83.3% Z-Contact, 72.5% Contact
~O-Swing: Percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone; Z-Contact: Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone; Contact: Total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches (data via Fangraphs, Baseball Info Solutions).
As a result, his walk rate ticked up (5.4-7.8%). And his strikeout rate (36.4% as a rookie) dropped 12.6 percentage points (23.8% – so you don’t have to do the math lol). This represented the third-largest decrease of anyone with at least 100 PA in both seasons.
Back to the power… When Riley makes contact, baseballs are murdered. His 12.0% career barrel rate is excellent. Homering on 8.4% of his career batted balls, he’s on par with Bryce Harper, Juan Soto (we’ll talk more about him later) and teammate Marcell Ozuna since 2019. And Riley can blast the ball a long way; his longest shot in 2020 was 471 feet with an average homer distance of 424. In five minor-league seasons, he too showed a propensity for slugging (.183 ISO, .453 SLG). Quality-of-contact numbers did decline in 2020, a likely by-product of his efforts to increase contact.
Remember, Riley is just 23 years old and is still growing as a player and as a hitter. After the slow start in 2020, he slashed .281/.348/.461 in his final 33 games. He will break out eventually and provide more consistency this season based on the above data. This could be the year it all comes together. Don’t get left behind!
Gleyber Torres – New York Yankees, SS
Batting sixth in a potent Yankees lineup is a fine place to be, isn’t it? In his first two MLB seasons with New York, Torres hit 62 home runs and drove in 167 runners with a 123 wRC+ as a 21- and 22-year-old middle infielder. The slash line resided at .275/.339/.508, and the wOBA, .354. All was grand in Gleyberville – if that’s not a thing, it should be. Then, in 2020, the walls came crashing in for some fantasy baseball players with a 106 wRC+ and three homers. And people pulled the ejector handle – after 42 games during a shortened, weird AF season. That’s just silly. Performance dips happen, especially when a player is battling a hamstring injury. This is why it’s important to know more than just the box score and watch your players as much as possible, or at least keep abreast of news.
Once fully healthy, Torres hit a combined .309/.434/.531 in September and the postseason. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello noted, “Torres’ wRC+ would jump to a more characteristic 128 if you included the playoffs.” The sharps over at NFBC know what’s what, having Torres at an ADP of 69.85, 1/1-present. However, he may have slipped elsewhere or is at least a bargain in the fourth/fifth round. I seriously wish he slips to me as ZiPS projects Torres for his best season yet, with career highs in OBP (.364), wRC+ (133) and WAR (4.4). That type of performance would have Torres up with fellow shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. as the 13th-most productive position player in MLB and at substantial draft-day savings (NFBC ADP 2.46, 1/1-present).
Jake Cronenworth – San Diego Padres, 2B (INF/OF)
Despite the signing of Ha-Seong Kim from the KBO, I’m still a big Cronenworth truther. From what I’ve read at this juncture, Ha-Seong will be the super-utility option (natural positions: SS, 3B) or play in the outfield. There could be a platoon at 2B since Cronenworth bats left, and Ha-Seong bats right, but that would be a mistake IMO. Expect Jake to see 125-135 games and 435-500 at-bats in a starting role if healthy. Why am I so confident in this projection?
Cronenworth, a former pitcher, posted a 42.7% hard-hit rate along with a 37.8% sweet-spot rate* in 2020. This makes for an awesome combination! While I expect some regression in these numbers, his minor league stats, dating back to 2015 in the Tampa Bay Rays organization, show a penchant for smacking the ball hard, too (.436 SLG, .173 ISO, 145 XBH). Coupled with decent wheels (6.3 Spd, last three years), he’s hit 26 triples in his professional career. It took him a few years to develop, but in 2020, he ranked 95th percentile in xwOBA, 91st in xSLG, 92nd in Sprint Speed and 89th in Outs Above AVG, according to Baseball Savant. All of this led to an outstanding .324 xBA (98th percentile) – sixth-best in MLB, above MLB Batting Champion, DJ LeMahieu.
*Sweet-Spot Rate: percent of balls hit in the most productive launch angle; ranges between eight and 32 degrees.
As expected with the high xBA, Cronenworth had excellent K & BB rates in 2020 (15.6% K-rate; 9.4% BB-rate). Dating from 2017-19 in the minors, the marks are 15.6% and 9.2% respectively, so right in line with 2020. Cronenworth finished within the top 10% of hitters in whiff-per-swing rate (91st percentile). Furthermore, only eight qualified hitters had a higher rate of hard contact per swing. His rate fell between Mookie Betts and Eloy Jimenez! Jake has advanced knowledge of the strike zone, doesn’t miss many swings, and hits the ball hard when he makes contact. A winning formula if you ask me.
Jeff McNeil – New York Mets, 2B/3B/OF
Affectionately, and somewhat sarcastically, nicknamed “Squirrel” from his days at Long Beach State due to his blond goatee whiskers and notable nimbleness, this squirrel likes to find his nut on the first pitch and pounce. To give you an idea, the league average for first-pitch swing percentage is 28.3%. In the last three seasons, McNeil’s percentages are 44.4%, 50.6% and 52.6%, an average of 49.5%. He loves squaring up that first-pitch fastball and hitting line drives around the park (24.1 LD%, 2020 – 22.4% last three seasons).
Despite not working deep counts, his OBP has been consistent (.383) and wOBA sparkling at .375. He creates a lot of runs hitting at the top of the order (career 139 wRC+), and much like Cronenworth, he carries a tidy sweet-spot rate (37.0%). Both the barrel percentage and hard-hit rate were down in 2020, but a full season of at-bats can normalize those percentages to 2019 form (4.8 B%, 37.8 HH%). McNeil is an excellent source of batting average, OBP, and has pop (23 HR in 2019, 16 in the second half!).
The dude shows up EVERYWHERE in Ray’s Offensive MLB Research Articles for various metrics. McNeil pops up 12th in wRC+ and 18th in wOBA from 2018-20, and he was 24th in the 2019 xBA ranks (.290). The mark was .278 in 2020, .033 below his .311 average, so that is worth keeping in mind. The .282 – .297 batting average projected between The Bat and ZiPS respectively seems spot on when all things are considered. McNeil makes for a fine starting second baseman or middle infielder, although the 86.38 NFBC ADP (1/1-present) is a touch high, and just look at those potential eligible positions (based on your league).
Juan Soto – Washington Nationals, OF
File this entry under “Duh,” but I had to write about my first-round target. Soto is coming off a season where he had an astonishing 201 park-adjusted weighted runs created (wRC+). However, this figure comes from just 47 games after Soto’s season was delayed due to COVID protocols – or a false positive, depending on who you ask. Still yet, the 142 and 146 marks he’s posted in his sophomore and rookie seasons, respectively, will do juuuuust fine. He is in rare company at just 22 years of age, as few young hitters have performed better, and is comparable to the great Ted Williams.
Teddy Ballgame isn’t the only measuring stick Soto is held against when assessing his elite place in MLB. If you play outfield and terrorize the baseball, you are gonna be compared to Mike Trout. It’s inevitable. So, let’s look at that comparison:
Soto: 640 PA, .305/.420/.595 (1.015 OPS), 37 HR, 105 BB, 141 RBI
Trout: 593 PA, .283/.420/.600 (1.020 OPS), 39 HR, 104 BB, 109 RBI
~Zips 2021 Projections
ZiPS sees little distinction between Soto’s raw numbers and Trout’s, except with RBI, and the two often go in the 4-5-6 overall range in most drafts. These projections overlook Trout’s advantage in wRC+ (164 to 154), but Soto is still unequivocally second in all of baseball in this department. Also, both men have a career 152 wRC+, although Trout has been doing it for a little longer. Give me the younger pup who is on the rise!
Soto’s 141 RBI projection leads fellow sluggers by a healthy margin – 15 more than Marcell Ozuna and 18 more than Cody Bellinger. That’s high praise! And that’s possibly exaggerated. Not since Orioles’ Chris Davis (138, 2013) has a player topped 135 RBI. The last time a player drove in 141 runs was in 2019 when Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard both did it. Can Soto be the next in line? With him entrenched in the lineup behind Nationals leadoff man Trea Turner, RBI opportunities will be his for the taking! Turner’s lifetime numbers (2015-present) are .296/.353/.480 with 257 runs scored and 171 steals in 205 attempts (83.4 SB%).
Speaking of steals, Nationals manager Dave Martinez said Soto “wants to steal more bases” this season. Soto has swiped only 23 bags in his three-year career – with an average speed score of 4.7 (career-high 5.8 in 2019) – and was 32nd percentile in sprint speed last year, per Statcast. But he said he dedicated this offseason to improve his agility. If we get an upgrade in the stolen base department, No. 4 overall may be too low!
Over the final two months of 2019 and the shortened 2020 season, Soto did this: .310/.445/.649 (OPS of 1.094). Some fantasy managers are Team Acuna, while others are Team Betts and even Fernando Tatis Jr. is in the mix at 2.46 NFBC ADP (1/1-present). For my money, I’ll be happy to draft after these big dogs are off the board and take Soto.
Michael Conforto – New York Mets, OF
Conforto returns from arguably his best season as a big leaguer despite the smaller than normal sample size. He hit .322/.412/.515 with nine home runs and 31 RBIs in 54 games last season, establishing himself as one of the top hitters on a significantly improving offense. He was one of six players to go .300/.400/.500 in 2020, although with an unsustainable BABIP. The .927 OPS was Conforto’s highest mark since his career-high in 2017 (.939 in 440 PA). That season, his slash line of .279/.384/.555 offers an example to support the 2020 numbers. A batting average decline is to be expected, considering his .284 xBA and the BABIP, yet positive regression in his .193 ISO offers a consistent power bat with a solid average. ISO marks of .276, .204 and .237 (2017-19) led to HR totals consecutively rising (27, 28, 33).
When Conforto is hitting well, he makes contact with the baseball out in front of the plate, allowing his hips to rotate and driving the pitch to all fields. We saw this in 2017 and 2019 with Oppo% in the 27.7-27.9 range. His Oppo% last season, a career-high 28.3%. He posted his second-highest Cent% with 39.3. The hard-hit rate was also his second-highest career mark at 36.6%, and in 2017, he boosted 41.6%. Conforto hit a lot of line drives rather than arching shots last season. As a result, he posted his highest line drive percentage of 30.3%, and in four of six years, he has been above 22%. If this trend continues, we could see an even higher than expected batting average and an increase in wOBA – it was an elite .401 in 2020 compared to his good career average of .358.
Side Note: If you followed my work in 2019 and 2020, you already know how high I am on Dominic Smith and may be surprised his name doesn’t show in the wish list. What am I gonna do, list all Mets players here lol – the reason for the snub is playing time concerns with NL losing DH (is that official yet?) and Mets multiple OF signings. Kevin Pillar/Albert Almora will siphon at-bats when they replace Dom for defensive purposes.
Wil Myers – San Diego Padres, OF/1B
Much like Jeff McNeil, Myers shows up EVERYWHERE in Ray’s Offensive MLB Research Articles for various metrics. He pops up 15th in wRC+ and wOBA in the 2020 leaderboards, and he just holds onto the leaderboard at 29th in xBA (.285), just to mention a few. Go back and read them; they’re excellent! It was the makings of a career year, to say the least, but not entirely out of left field – see what I did there? Sorry.
In 2016 and 2017, Myers posted spectacular counting numbers fueled by above-average BB-rates, ISO numbers above .202 and wOBA figures north of .335. The .400 wOBA of 2020 was starchy high to career norms, as was the ISO. After all, the man did blast 15 HR in 218 PA. However, the BB-rate was still above average, and he cut his K-rate down to 25.7% from 34.3% the year prior. Again, in his two most successful years of ‘16 & ‘17, these trends were present. Less of a free swinger as he matures in his career (25.8 O-Swing%), he posted his lowest mark since 2015. Now 30 years of age, Myers is set up to reach the climax of his career and can be had in the ninth to 11th round of your draft, depending on league size (NFBC ADP 130.99, 1/1-present).
Now, let’s talk lineup. Myers hits in a good one. Currently slated to bat sixth by Fangraphs, he will hit between Tommy Pham and the aforementioned Jake Cronenworth. Hey, I’m better when I stack! It’s the DFS player in me, but we all know the value in the seasonal game, as well. Even more, if you can’t get Rockies hitters, the next best thing is getting division foes who play the most games in Coors out of Colorado’s opposition.
Dylan Carlson – St. Louis Cardinals, OF
Carlson got off to a slow start in his major-league career last summer, but he’s still St. Louis’ No. 1 prospect, and I won’t hold it against him. Summoned prematurely to the big club without the benefit of the minor leagues, the 21-year-old (at the time) was overwhelmed. He’ll be back with the big club again, however. He’s slated to bat fifth behind Nolan Arenado and ahead of Yadier Molina as the everyday right fielder, with the talent to play all three areas of the outfield. His spot in the lineup is a topic for debate, “but 2021 should be his first year that he gets a full year of at-bats,” and the Cardinals will look to “build his confidence lower in the lineup.”
However, this process began in the Cardinals’ Wild Card Series against the Padres. The switch-hitting outfielder had a 1.016 OPS across three games and 14 plate appearances as the cleanup hitter, showing what he is capable of bringing to the plate. “I’m excited,” Cardinals manager Mike Shildt said of Carlson. “This guy’s got a lot of good skill sets. He’s good at pretty much everything he does and is only going to continue to get better. He’s a hitter, which I like. He can hit. The power will be there, and he’ll do some damage.” The key here is “he can hit.” Carlson makes great contact. In fact, 28.9% of his contact was hard-hit (95+ mph) and in the launch angle sweet spot, good for top-5 in baseball, trailing only Freddie Freeman, Matt Chapman, Will Smith and Corey Seager. For more on hard-hit/sweet-spot rate, see Jake Cronenworth above.
To review, Carlson hits the ball hard (35.5% hard-hit rate)… check. He hits the ball hard and in the air… double-check. He hits the ball to all fields (38.2% Pull, 38.2% Cent, 23.7% Oppo)… triple-check. Carlson’s quality of contact and vast improvement down the stretch and into the postseason makes him a top get for me in the 150-160 ADP range. He has a legit shot at NL Rookie of the Year honors. In 483 Double-A 2019 at-bats, Carlson accumulated 21 HR, 51 XBH and 81 R with a .281/.364/.518 slash line, .387 wOBA, and 142 wRC+. Furthermore, he was promoted to Triple-A to round out the year and continued to smash. Maybe not quite the wOBA and wRC+, but the other numbers are doable in 2021.