Why I am Better at Sports Betting than You, pt. 6

VFW Joe KNOWS the NFL

It’s been some time since we checked in on our favorite degenerate: VFW Joe. At last check in, Joe was pumped for the MLB season, doubling down on his run line parlays with HR props. As predicted, Joe has stopped betting baseball because “you can’t predict baseball”. Poor Joe had told everyone down at the VFW baseball was his sport, and even saw some success early in the season:

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FADE IN

FLASHBACK:  INT. VFW HALL - LATE AFTERNOON

We see JOE buying rounds of $2 drafts at the bar...

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Since then, Joe has shifted his focus from MLB to NFL. He NEVER loses at NFL. This is his sport. Joe played football in high school and knows the game inside and out. He follows the draft, reads all the camp reports, and hasn’t missed RedZone one NFL Sunday for 5 years. Being a Steelers fan he knows everything about them and can “tell” every week if they will win or lose.

Down at the VFW, Joe has been holding court, explaining how NFL betting works to the amazement of all of his drinking buddies. “Just wait boys, money season is here!” Currently Joe and the boys are 8 drinks deep, let’s listen in:

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FADE IN
INT. VFW HALL - DAY

                             JOE
I only bet the NFL on Sunday mornings. You cannot make a clear decision on the game until you have ALL the information!  I also only bet Sunday because I need to see where the sharp money is moving.  Vegas gets so much wrong it's amazing. You really don’t see it until you're doing this every week, like me, and have tools to see where the public money is.  Someday I’ll show you fucking guys, but you can just tail me...

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10 minutes later…

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FADE IN

                              JOE
Always buy the hook! It only costs a few extra cents to buy off the half point.  You DO NOT want to lose by the hook. I win more games buying that half point, it amazes me bookies let me do it, they're crazy!

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. . .

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FADE IN

                              JOE
You can really get an edge betting large favorites on the moneyline. Think about it:  The Steelers are not going to lose to the Bengals as -450 favorites, but they may not cover the 8-point spread. I just pay the extra money and lock in a guaranteed winner.  If I was a bookie I would only offer spread bets, but if they're going to give me a FREE winner I'm gonna fucking take it!

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FADE IN

                              JOE
I also parlay several of those large moneyline favorites.  Think about it: What are the fuckin' odds of the top 3 favorites losing on a given weekend!?  We know they may not cover, but they sure as shit ain't gonna lose!

                    JOE (to the bartender)
4 more beers over here, please!  Class is in session, boys!”

                                                           FADE OUT

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Seriously, he’s still going…

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FADE IN

                              JOE
I actually rarely bet a team straight. I get so much more bang for my buck parlaying or teasing the games. My goal is to get as close to even money as I can on every bet.

                           VFW MIKE
Damn Joe, how the fuck do you know all this??!?! I could never figure out how all this shit works!  What the hell is a teaser!?  What the hell does "even money" mean!?  Where did you learn all of this!?  Thanks for the beer, man!”

                              JOE
Well, Mikey, I've been in this game since I was a kid.  My father was a gambler and he passed all this knowledge on to me, and I study.  This takes TONS of time, but it's worth it.  No one is better than me at NFL!  Basically, "even money" means I'm not paying my bookie any VIG. If I bet -200, the bookie is taking half my money. Why would you want to pay him half your money on a coin flip?  At the end of the day every game is a coin flip.

                        NARRATOR (V.O.)
Joe is getting pretty drunk and contradicting himself, but it doesn't matter.  This is all bullshit, and VFW MIKE will never know.

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…and finally…

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FADE IN

                              JOE
Bet a ton of teasers. I actually have no idea why my bookie lets me do it. Betting 10 point teasers on favorites is, literally, free money. If I can get a team who is favored by 7 at +3 it's impossible to lose.

                           VFW MIKE
Joe, I cannot fuckin' wait to start printing money with you this season. I can't believe no one's ever explained all this to me before!

                                                           FADE OUT

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I cannot stress this enough: Everything Joe has said here is bullshit. Complete bullshit. I’m planning on having a drink with Joe soon to talk some sense into him, but until then: Don’t be a piss drunk degenerate, like Joe.