The Red Zone

There are many different data points, metrics, and statistics we consider when projecting for players. Opportunities (targets and touches) are arguably one of the most important stats, in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong, offensive line play, game situations, coaching, play calling, and other factors also matter. However, without opportunities, there’s no pathway to fantasy production. That’s why I always prioritize opportunities when projecting for players.

Keep in mind, not all opportunities are equal. A rush attempt at the 50-yard line is different from a rush attempt inside the 5-yard line, which is why I like to look at red zone usage for players. Touchdowns are highly unpredictable in football, and red zone touches don’t always result in scores. However, by examining how often a team is in scoring position in the red zone and who is dominating the red zone touches on the offense, you get a strong sense of who is likely to score. Now, let’s explore what the red zone is and why usage in this area is important. 

WHAT IS THE RED ZONE?

Before explaining why red zone touches and opportunities matter, as well as the stats fantasy owners should be monitoring, let’s define what the red zone is. Granted, 99.9 percent of you already know this, but this is for the 0.1 percent that might not. The red zone is the area between the 20-yard line and the goal line. In other words, in the red zone, the offense is 20 yards away from scoring a touchdown. 

RED ZONE OPPORTUNITIES AND TOUCHES BY THE NUMBERS

Red zone touches

Touches inside the 20-yard line show how often a player contacts the ball in the red zone, including rushing attempts and receptions. Opportunities like targets should also be accounted for, as they indicate how many chances a player has had in this area. When a player receives an opportunity in the red zone, it presents a potential scoring opportunity. 

Percentage of the team’s red zone touches

While touches inside the 20-yard line are crucial, understanding each player’s specific role in this area is also very important. Player A might have 30 red zone touches, making up 80 percent of his team’s total touches inside the 20-yard line. Meanwhile, Player B could have 35 red zone touches, but these only account for 50 percent of his team’s red zone touches. Although Player B has five more touches overall, Player A is targeted more frequently when the team approaches the red zone. This indicates that Player A is relied upon more heavily in this area, but one team has more red zone scoring attempts per game. 

The same can be said about targets. Targets don’t always result in receptions, but they are opportunities for these players. One player could have five receptions on five targets, while another could have five receptions on eight targets. If we focus only on receptions (touches), we miss part of the picture because we’re not considering the opportunities. It’s always better to have all the information available to make the most accurate and informed conclusion. 

Red zone scoring attempts per game

Some players will naturally have more scoring opportunities than others because of the teams they play for. Teams like the Rams, Jaguars, Colts, 49ers, Cowboys, and Bills ranked among the top offenses in scoring attempts per game in the 2025 regular season. So, it’s no surprise that Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, James Cook, Kyren Williams, and Javonte Williams were among the top six in red zone rush attempts in 2025. Additionally, Josh Allen led all quarterbacks in red zone rush attempts and was the only one with over 30 such attempts. Nine players had more than 20 red zone targets, including two from the Cowboys, two from the Rams, and one from San Francisco. Notice the correlation here?

When offenses advance into the 20-yard line and look to score, it opens up scoring opportunities for their players. Therefore, combining all these numbers is crucial. Once we know who’s getting the touches and who accounts for a high percentage of the opportunities in these offenses, we can start pinpointing potential sources of scoring. 

Inside the 10-yard and 5-yard line

Not all red zone rush attempts are the same. A run from the 18-yard line is different from a run from the 9-yard line. Likewise, a run from the 8-yard line is different from one from the 2-yard line. I like to categorize red zone rush attempts into three areas: inside the 20-, 10-, and 5-yard line. 

The chance of scoring a touchdown from inside the 5-yard line is higher than from the 10-yard line. Similarly, the likelihood of scoring from inside the 10-yard line is greater than from the 20-yard line. Therefore, we should focus not just on how many red zone opportunities a player has, but also on where these opportunities happen, how often they occur in this area, and what percentage of the team’s opportunities these players account for in these specific zones. 

For context, Jonathan Taylor led all players last season with 14 red zone rushing touchdowns. He finished second in the NFL in rush attempts inside the 5-yard line at 19 and was also second inside the 10-yard line with 39 attempts. Out of Taylor’s 12 red zone rushing touchdowns, nine came from inside the 5-yard line, with the remaining three from inside the 10-yard line. Derrick Henry is another example; he led the league with 24 rush attempts inside the 5-yard line and scored 10 rushing touchdowns in the red zone, all from inside the 5-yard line. Notably, all four players with exactly 10 red zone rushing touchdowns scored at least 80 percent of them from inside the 5-yard line. 

All red zone touches are valuable, but as you can see from some of the numbers above, some touches are clearly more valuable than others. 

Efficiency in the red zone 

Opportunities are valuable, but as I mentioned earlier, they don’t always lead to scoring. Overall efficiency is crucial because, ultimately, what good are opportunities if you can’t convert them into points? That’s why I also emphasize efficiency within the red zone as another key statistical measure. This is essentially a formula that measures the number of touches a player converts into six points. I don’t use this solely as a decision-making tool but also to assess potential regression, whether positive or negative. 

For example, Josh Jacobs converted 25 percent of his red zone rush attempts into touchdowns, leading all players with at least 40 rush attempts inside the 20-yard line in this category. The next best player was at 22 percent. Among players with at least 10 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line, nobody was more efficient than Josh Allen, who converted 69 percent of his rush attempts from this area into a touchdown. The next best player was at 56 percent. 

When we examine efficiency, we uncover multiple factors such as play calling, offensive line performance, the areas of the field where touches occur, and whether a player performs well when given a great opportunity. All of these elements are vital when predicting a player’s touchdown potential based on their roles inside the red zone. 

2025 RED ZONE FUN FACTS

Below, I will highlight some of the most notable red zone numbers from the 2025 season to show which players were most frequently used in this area of the field. This can help us spot potential touchdown chances. Keep in mind that circumstances for some players may have changed, including coaching, personnel, and even teams. 

• Christian McCaffrey led all players with 71 red zone rush attempts. He also led all running backs with 25 red zone targets, finishing the season with a league-high 96 red zone opportunities. 

• Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in red zone rush attempts with 14. He was the only other player with at least 70 red zone rush attempts. 

• Josh Allen led all quarterbacks in red zone rush attempts with 31. He finished second in the league with 13 rushing touchdowns inside the 20-yard line.

• Christian McCaffrey (76.3%) and Ashton Jeanty (75.6%) were the only players in the league to account for more than 70 percent of their team’s red zone rush attempts. Jonathan Taylor (69.3%) was the only other running back to account for over 65 percent of their team’s red zone rush attempts.

• Ashton Jeanty accounted for 90 percent of the Raiders’ rush attempts from inside the 5-yard line, the highest percentage of any player in football from this part of the field. He had nine rush attempts in this area. 

• Derrick Henry led all players in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line and inside the 5-yard line.  

• Amon-Ra St. Brown had the most red zone targets with 34. The only other players with at least 25 targets were Trey McBride (32), Davante Adams (31), and Christian McCaffrey (25). St. Brown and McCaffrey also led in red zone receptions, each with 20. 

• Davante Adams led all players with 23 targets inside the 10-yard line. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the only other player to have at least 20 targets in this area.  

• Amon-Ra St. Brown accounted for a league high 41.5 percent of his team’s red zone target share, being the only player with a 40+ percent target share inside the 20-yard line.

• Trey McBride led all tight ends in red zone targets with 32.

• Davante Adams led the NFL with 12 red zone receiving touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Trey McBride, and Dallas Goedert were the only other players with at least 10 red zone receiving touchdowns, each with exactly 10. 

• Matthew Stafford led the NFL in red zone pass attempts with 104. He also topped the league in completions, touchdown passes, and passing yards inside the 20-yard line. Dak Prescott (99) was the only other quarterback with over 90 red zone pass attempts. 

• Jalen Hurts led the NFL in completion percentage from inside the 20-yard line among players with at least 30 pass attempts. He completed 71.43% of his red zone pass attempts.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Things change from year to year as personnel, coaching staff, and systems undergo changes. Therefore, red zone stats from the previous year shouldn’t be your only reference when making decisions. That said, this information still provides a useful perspective on how teams use their players in the red zone and which players are likely to be put in scoring situations. You will also get a good sense of opportunities vacated by some offenses after free agency and what that could mean for the next player to step up. As I mentioned earlier, touchdowns are unpredictable, but with this data, we at least know who is put in favorable scoring situations and how often they are in those situations. 

Throughout the regular season, I’ll be providing a weekly red zone usage report tracking all red zone statistics. Make sure to watch out for that starting after the first week of the season. You can also view the full sheet with all the data discussed in the article by scanning the barcode at the end of this article. Good luck to everyone this fantasy football season!