Three potential risers and fallers who are due for either positive or negative regression respectively in the second half – Starting Pitcher Evals!
Every night (or sometimes day) when I’ve been updating the daily pitching matchups for the MLB Weekly Preview, it’s kinda hard not to study the numbers and recognize trends. Who is due for positive regression? Who is playing above his norm (mean) and is due to regress? Does the data prove to be true 100% of the time? Not always, as some hurlers will ride the wave of overachievement all season long, while others will continue to have bad luck. More often than not though, we see a starting pitcher become who we thought they were or attain the next level based on improved pitcher-independent skills.
Recently, six names keep popping up on my radar. If you have been following along each day with pitching matchups, you may have noticed them, too. If not, no worries! Being the nice guy that I am, I will share with you three names who could be on the rise in the second half and three guys who may be riding the regression train.
3 UP
Chris Paddack
- 5.17 ERA | 3.87 FIP | 3.77 xFIP | 3.94 SIERA | 4.52 xERA
Paddack is the 2021 poster boy for positive regression. Not only by these metrics, but in the last full season of 2019, his ERA was a crisp 3.33 in 140.2 innings pitched. 2020 told a different story with a 4.73 ERA and 5.17 xERA. However, the xFIP was the same mark as this season, and the SIERA was .03 lower. Paddack is a victim of the BABIP monster (the Turf Monster’s slightly less evil cousin) with a mark of .315. Over the past two seasons, the mark has been .289 (2020) and .237 (2019). Realistically, his BABIP should lie around .274. If this were to normalize, we can expect his batting average against to lower from .266, which isn’t an awful mark. Another benefactor would be his left on-base percentage (LOB%). Paddack currently has a rate of 60.5%, while his career average is 70.6%.
Eval: I am buying on Paddack. Would like to see the 22.5% strikeout rate increase towards 2019 levels, but his CSW has remained consistent at 28.1% as has the 11.6% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%).
Kenta Maeda
- 4.71 ERA | 4.12 FIP | 3.94 xFIP | 4.00 SIERA | 3.96 xERA
I first wrote about Maeda’s buy-low candidacy at the end of April. While it hasn’t exactly worked out as imagined based on some poor performance and injury, Maeda’s last three starts have been pretty spectacular with 25 strikeouts in 16 innings pitched (article written before 7/22 start). Looking over his game log, he has given up three or fewer earned runs in nine of his last ten starts. Appears the positive regression has already begun! He hasn’t pitched past the sixth inning yet this season, but shouldn’t that mean the 33-year-old pitcher will be fresh down the stretch? Currently, he’s at 72.2 IP and only six above last year’s abbreviated total. From 2016-2019, Maeda averaged a little over 147 innings. Furthermore, he has been bitten by the BABIP monster even harder than Paddack: .323 vs. career .279.
Eval: I am buying on Maeda. He has managed a LOB% close to career norms at 68.5% (72.8% career) so has done a good job there, but more room to strand runners.
Madison Bumgarner
- 5.09 ERA | 4.38 FIP | 4.70 xFIP | 4.24 SIERA | 4.46 xERA
Let me start by saying none of these numbers are pretty nor indicate we have anything close to the man we saw from 2013-2016 when MadBum was a regular All-Star and Cy Young candidate. The reason? Inconsistency. Inconsistency with mechanics and results. He has improved the mechanical flaws identified last year when he was at his worst but can still get loose and leave hittable pitches over the plate. Yet, his pitcher-independent skills – skills independent from ballpark and fielder and interactive – show he doesn’t deserve the plus-5 ERA. Unlike the prior two gentlemen, his BABIP is spot on (.282 2021, .284 career). Arizona’s defensive issues may be responsible for a 60.6% LOB%, 15.1% lower than his career mark and 12.6% lower than last season! Madbum has worked his strikeout and walk rates back to above-average levels but will need to improve his 0.68 GB/FB ratio.
Eval: I am streaming MadBum in the right matchups if available. Would gladly take him in part of a package deal at the right price, but I’m also not going out of my way to nab him.
Other Potential Risers: Eduardo Rodriguez, Jameson Taillon, JT Brubaker, Dylan Bundy
3 DOWN
Lance McCullers Jr.
- 3.04 ERA | 3.35 FIP | 3.78 xFIP | 4.06 SIERA | 3.26 xERA
Everybody in the business touts this starting pitcher. And I get it. McCullers has the pedigree. He has the stuff and the makeup. His ERA and xERA are desirable. However, as we start to work ourselves into pitcher-independent skills, we see some chinks in the armor, especially when it comes to his SIERA. The 27.8% strikeout rate is excellent. It would also be the highest mark he has had since 2016 and is 3.1% higher than last year. Wanna know what else is higher? McJunior’s walk rate of 11.7% (career 9.6%), hard-hit rate of 43.2% (career 35.1%) and LOB% of 78.1% (career 72.9%). Luckily, his 29.2% fly-ball rate and 54.4% ground-ball rates have helped dispel the HH rate. His .267 BABIP is lower than his career .303, although the mark the last two seasons has been .277 and .278 respectively.
Eval: Gotta hold onto McCullers, especially since his predictive metrics still illustrate a great fantasy pitcher. However, you can expect some negative regression here in the second half.
Kwang Hyun Kim
- 2.87 ERA | 3.78 FIP | 4.62 xFIP | 4.75 SIERA | 3.80 xERA
Kim is a bit of a conundrum. Clearly, his ERA will not stay below three this season. Predictive measures alone show he could gain a full run on his ERA through the end of the year. Then, when you look into skill interactive data and results devoid of ballpark or fielding factors, the news becomes even worse. However, when comparing his BABIP and LOB% to both his two seasons in MLB as well as his years pitching for the SK Wyverns (now SSG Landers) of the KBO, they are par for the course. His HH and FB rates are ok, while his 47.5% GB rate is good, and the line-drive rate is a tidy 18.5%. All told, he has a nice 0.69 HR/9, which is the same mark as last year but lower than his yearly marks in the KBO, a league not known for much power.
So, what is the culprit? Both his strikeouts and walks are elevated. Expect fewer whiffs with his 26.8% CSW and 8.9% SwStr%. Both numbers are not great and are still above past performance. He also has a 1.63 ABA compared to 1.23 WHIP. Not sure how long he keeps that up.
Eval: I am selling high on Kim, coming off three straight scoreless performances. While he has some positive results to date, I feel owners have gotten a bulk of his “fantasy goodness” this year. Oh, and did I mention? He has doubled his innings total from 2020.
Anthony DeSclafani
- 2.78 ERA | 3.63 FIP | 3.95 xFIP | 4.05 SIERA | 3.64 xERA
This last one is gonna piss some people off. I don’t care. I’m sorry I’m not sorry. These are the facts.
Fact #1: DeSclafani has never posted an ERA under 3.28. Fact #2: BABIP monster has been his friend with a mark of .234 (career .291; .318 for 2020, .273 for 2019, .294 2018). Fact #3: his 81.2% LOB% is unsustainable. All of this reeks of regression. We could easily have a case that I spelled out previously; a starting pitcher who is attaining the next level based on improved pitcher-independent skills. His xFIP and SIERA have not been this low since 2015-2016. Plus, he did change teams this season, moving into a more pitcher-friendly ballpark and gaining the tutelage of pitching coach Curt Young. Desclafani’s 1.03 HR/9 pales in comparison to previous seasons but falls in the range he set once again for 2015-16. But can he maintain this figure with his current 40.4% HH rate and 37.5% fly-ball rate? I’m not so sure.
Eval: I would shop DeSclafani around to see if you get any takers. If the pot is sweet enough, make the deal.
Other Potential Fallers: Kyle Gibson, Hyun Jin Ryu, Casey Mize, Taijuan Walker, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley
