
In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: As we move into the dog days of the season, the schedule makers are fucking with managers, real-life and fantasy alike. Extremely important to pay attention to your hitter’s schedule this week when making roster decisions. Luckily, the Fantasy Guru Fam is prepared for whatever they throw at us. If we made it through 2020 with schedules changing hourly, this week is no sweat. Still, here are important highlights from the above grid.
First, the dreaded five-game week befalls five teams – Cleveland, Texas, Miami, St. Louis and Arizona. These teams don’t have many valuable bats outside of St. Louis, but the loss will still be felt by many. Paul Goldschmidt has been raging hot this past month with hits in 17 of his last 18 games, including eight multi-hit efforts and 10 extra-base hits (XBH). Kinda hard to sit that, but you can with 13 teams playing seven or more games. Dylan Carlson has been warming recently but is fine to sit for a better alternative with more games. You may be forced into starting Nolan Arenado, even though he has a mere five hits in his last 29 at-bats. Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman and Paul DeJong’s values take a hit, as well. Furthermore, managers were awaiting Franmil Reyes’ return from the IL and have been rewarded. Stick with him this week!
A Few Areas to Target
Here I Am, on the Road Again
Great American Ball Park won’t play host to any games this week, as the Reds are on the road for a pair of series (@CHC – 4, @NYM – 3). Although, this doesn’t mean we should rush to sit their hitters. Cincy does have a full complement of seven games, and their pitching matchups are mostly run-of-the-mill (Zach Davies, Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, Rich Hill and a potential 2021 season debut for a still not fully built up Carlos Carrasco).
Attention: Red Sox Righties Will EAT This Week… That Is All!
File this one under “DUH!” But I would be remiss without pointing out that Boston is scheduled to see six lefties this week. Let the Kiké Hernández/Xander Bogaerts/J.D. Martinez circle jerk commence… omg, I’m going to hell.
Braves and Mets Battle for First Place
The two clubs play each other for a five-game series with a doubleheader and have a week-leading eight games to play. For Atlanta, the volume of games offsets some potentially brutal pitching matchups (Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker and a hot Tylor Megill). Furthermore, what do these arms all have in common? You got it… they’re all righties. The Braves could see up to seven RHP this week in total along with a probable bullpen game by the Mets. Music to Freddie Freeman’s ears, who is making a push for back-to-back NL MVP awards.
Mets are home all this week, which lowers their hitters’ value a tad due to ballpark factors. According to Elite Data, Citi Field has the fourth-lowest run factor (0.891) and is middle of the league in home runs (1.000). Once again, the volume makes up for a less-than-ideal layout of opposing hurlers. However, they are scheduled to face four lefties, which is bad news for Michael Conforto owners (batting .145 against LHP this season). Better week to play Dom Smith, but with less than daunting opposition on the mound this week, Conforto is still in play.
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. One would think this would ultimately rule out Stanton for the three-game set in his old stomping grounds. However, manager Aaron Boone said on Carton & Roberts of WFAN that he intends to play Giancarlo in the outfield. Will his body hold up? That is the only question as the team is short in outfield bodies thanks to the rona.
Miami and St. Louis’ turn to go “interleaguing” all week! Unfortunately, it results in five-game weeks. At least the pair of teams gain an extra batter for two games. Does it make Sierra, Brinson or Carpenter stream-worthy? Not really; only in the deepest of leagues. Normally, this would be the time we sweat Nelson Cruz, but he ain’t in Minneapolis no mo, so we good! Jake Cave is not.
The good news – the Rockies also gain an extra batter, and they get one for three games as well as play seven total this week. The bad news – Rockies’ hitters blow chunks on the road, where they find themselves all week long. Hilliard and Hampson are no exception (more of an example), but they will be afforded more at-bats because of the DH. Yet more ABs against some stiff pitching matchups: Shohei Ohtani, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Chris Paddack. I’ll pass. A now-healthy Cabby would have made for an intriguing stream, but having only five games kills Asdrúbal’s chances (someone to keep an eye on, while Ketel Marte and Josh Rojas remain on the IL.
The “even worse” news, at least for Houston, is they have all but two of their NL road games in the second half of the season. These games should relegate Alvarez to the bench and pitch-hitting duties. The one glaring problem with the Astros is their outfield has zero flexibility. Michael Brantley plays left, Kyle Tucker right, and Myles Straw is the only one who can play center of the starting lineup. While Yordan has played 16 games in left and could give Brantley a breather, the series in San Fran limits both.
*Rivalry Series: None
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
Will Ohtani ever get a two-start week? Not according to manager Joe Maddon: “The plan is to keep Shohei on six.” However, beginning with the Twins series this past week, the Halos play 32 games in 31 days, and it could happen this week (probably not, they’ll get Nolan Ryan to make a spot start and push Ohtani to seven… hey, he may be 74 years young, but I heard he still hits 91 on the gun). *UPDATE: Just like capturing a clear shot of Bigfoot, a two-start week for Ohtani WILL NEVER HAPPEN. When will I get this through my thick skull? Dig this. So, a ball hit the thumb on his throwing hand in the dugout “recently.” That’s Maddon’s story, though he downplayed the severity and stated he should still be available for DH duties this weekend. But he will not start Sunday. Lies, all lies!
- Julio Urías12 (@SF, @ARI)
- Shohei Ohtani19 (COL,
OAK) ← Just pitch him Sundays or Wednedays each week, and let’s be done with this charade! - Robbie Ray24 (@BOS,
KC) ← Due to 7/27 PPD, Ray gets pushed and loses second start. - Charlie Morton25 (@NYM, MIL)
- Kyle Hendricks26 (CIN, @WSH)
- Marcus Stroman30 (ATL, CIN)
- Germán Márquez36 (@LAA, @SD)
- Chris Paddack38 (OAK,
COL) ← Placed on 10-day IL due to a strained left oblique - Luis Garcia41 (@SEA, @SF)
- Wade Miley44 (@CHC, @NYM)
- Austin Gomber45 (@LAA, @SD)
- Dylan Cease48 (@KC,
CLE) ← Pushed to 8/3 - Dallas Keuchel50 (@KC, CLE)
- Shane McClanahan64 (NYY, BOS)
Other Options: James Kaprielian68 (@SD, @LAA), Joe Ross69 (@PHI, CHC)*, Tyler Anderson89 (MIL, @TEX), Jordan Montgomery90 (@TB, @MIA), Michael Pineda95 (DET, @STL), Nick Pivetta105 (TOR, @TB), Mike Minor106 (CHW, @TOR)*, Adbert Alzolay120 (CIN, @WSH), Matt Manning138 (@MIN, BAL)
*Minor takes a hit in the rankings mostly based on an awful two starts scheduled despite coming off a strong start @MIL. He also flat-out stunk in the four starts prior, and the Brewers are not the White Sox or Blue Jays, especially when it comes to hitting LHP. Joe Ross carries re-injury risk, returning from elbow inflammation. Tread carefully here, but some strong K upside. UPDATE: Kaprielian on 10-day IL (shoulder impingement); Daulton Jefferies (A’s No. 3 ranked prospect) to be recalled for Sunday’s start.
Danger Zone: Logan Webb139 (LAD, HOU), Vladimir Gutierrez140 (@CHC, @NYM), Erick Fedde141 (@PHI, CHC), Brad KellerNR (CHW, @TOR)*, Tyler AlexanderNR (@MIN, @TEX), Spencer HowardNR (WSH, @PIT)
*Not fooled by Keller’s three straight quality starts (MIN, @CLE, @MIL) and could copy/paste what I wrote about Minor minus the handedness.
For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JULY 26 – AUG 1
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
The Povia jinx is in full effect. Scott Bondar knows exactly what I’m talking about. Wrote up Alex Cobb last week, and he leaves his 7/23 start early due to a blister on his right index finger. That Patrick Sandoval guy looked pretty good though (pause while I pat myself on the back). Shame about Cobb, as he was pitching well yet again: two runs (one earned) over five innings. Blisters can be problematic (duh) but especially so for a pitcher who throws a sinker 42.2% of the time as well as a split-finger fastball 37.3% of the time. The reasons for the splitter should be obvious by the grip, and the sinker relies on adding extra pressure to the seams to get the downward motion. At the time of this writing, it is unknown if his next start against Oakland will occur as scheduled.
*UPDATE: Manager Joe Maddon said Cobb won’t be able to make his scheduled start against Oakland. Instead, Dylan Bundy will make the spot start, and Cobb is probably bound for the IL based on this news and analysis above.
Trevor Rogers (lower back spasms) was placed on the 10-day IL on 7/24 (retro 7/21), a day before he was scheduled to pitch. Rogers was off-kilter in his previous start on 7/19 yet only gave up two runs on five hits and three walks with three strikeouts in five innings. The injury may have occurred then, although Rogers “felt something” during a BP session. He is eligible to come off IL for the 7/31 start vs. NYY. Load management isn’t just for the NBA anymore.
Update on Stephen Strasburg (neck) – Stras will meet with a specialist on 7/25 after experiencing his second setback following the All-Star break. He continues to experience discomfort in the neck and is still multiple weeks away from rejoining Washington’s starting rotation. Is it time to cut bait with him in redraft leagues? Almost. Even if the discomfort went away tomorrow, Stras will need multiple rehab outings to build up after not throwing a major league pitch since 6/1. Managers are hoping for a September return, but the clock could run out with any further delays. Erick Fedde will continue to fill in but is only streamable in cupcake matchups (this week’s matchups are not). *UPDATE: Strasburg will undergo season-ending neurogenic thoracic outlet surgery, manager Dave Martinez announced to reports during pregame conference on 7/27.
The Dodgers finally reluctantly placed Mookie Betts on the 10-day injured list due to right hip inflammation. The outfielder last played on 7/19. The plan was to get a cortisone shot to reduce the discomfort and pain in his right hip this past weekend, work out the hip, and hopefully have Betts play in the opening game of the Giants series. Apparently, the shot didn’t do squadouche (technical term). Additionally, Betts’ oft-injured teammate, Cody Bellinger, remained out of the lineup 7/25 due to left hamstring tightness.
Now, here’s some good news. White Sox manager Tony La Russa said that Eloy Jiménez will come off the IL and make his 2021 debut on 7/26 against the Royals. Jiménez has missed the entire season after tearing his left pectoral muscle during Spring Training. Furthermore, Yasmani Grandal is making progress after his 7/7 surgery o repair a torn tendon in his left knee. No specific date for his return, but he hopes to be back in action by mid-August.
Jack Flaherty (left oblique strain) will make a rehab start with Triple-A Memphis on 7/27, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt said. Flaherty will be on a pitch count of 40 to 45, which is higher than Shildt initially anticipated. This will mark his first live-game action since 5/31. Miles Mikolas (right forearm tightness) tossed three innings for Triple-A Memphis on 7/24 with 17 strikes on 29 pitches. St. Louis hopes to have him back on the active roster within 3-4 weeks, barring any setbacks, even if he needs to finish building up to a starter’s workload at the Major League level. One day, the Cards pitching staff will be intact.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Kyle Muller97, LH ATL (@NYM, MIL; 47% owned) – Being extremely lazy here by repeating Muller, but we lost his second start last week with Touki Toussaint being placed ahead of Muller in the rotation order. It has created even finer matchups, so why would I go any other direction? And why would you, too, if he’s on your roster already or still available in your league? In case you missed what I wrote last week, here ya go!
Honorable Mention: Spenser WatkinsNR, RH BAL (MIA, @DET; 20% owned) – Not a bad stream with the matchups and coming off three pretty good starts vs. some stiff competition (TOR, CHW, @TB), the last being a quality start. However, Tigers’ offense is coming to life, so to speak, and has hit righties much better all season. This feels like a trap.
Solo Start: Tylor Megill, RH NYM (ATL; 51% owned) – Another repeat, I know. But he is still available in a little under half of leagues. Maybe people are sleeping cause they are shifting their attention to fantasy football prep. Well, take advantage of it! Megill has been lights out since his call up for the Mets, and he is absorbing a ton of tutelage from one Jacob deGrom. You can see it by the way Megill pitches, oh and them talking in almost every camera shot of the dugout. He makes for a fine replacement for those fantasy managers who have deGrom* on the IL. After this week, we may not see him available again.
*Mike Puma of the New York Post cited a source who said the Mets plan to schedule a minor league rehab start for deGrom with the hope he can rejoin the rotation in “early August.” *UPDATE: Swelling and inflammation was found in an MRI on 7/30 following what was labeled as a successful BP session the day prior. deGrom, who typically throws a bit the day after his BPs, was noticeably absent, and now we know why. He will not throw for two weeks and will then be evaluated before rehabbing. A September return looks likely.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, August 1, 2021
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Adbert Alzolay (RHP, CHC) | 4-11 | 4.73 | 3.82 | 3.92 | 4.80 | 24.9% | 7.1% | 41.0% | 35.6% | ||||||||
Erick Fedde (RHP, WSH) | 4-7 | 5.05 | 4.33 | 4.70 | 4.77 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 39.8% | 29.6% |
PPD Alert* | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
Kyle Gibson (RHP, PHI) | 6-3 | 2.87 | 4.15 | 4.46 | 3.69 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 37.2% | 28.5% | ||||||||
Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT) | 3-7 | 7.04 | 5.11 | 4.99 | 5.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 48.3% | 38.2% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Brad Keller (RHP, KC) | 7-9 | 5.55 | 4.59 | 4.87 | 6.36 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 43.8% | 27.2% | ||||||||
José Berríos* (RHP, TOR) | 7-5 | 3.48 | 3.58 | 3.74 | 4.10 | 25.7% | 6.5% | 37.7% | 32.1% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Spenser Watkins (RHP, BAL) | 2-1 | 3.10 | 5.54 | 5.59 | 4.80 | 16.1% | 10.3% | 28.6% | 42.6% | ||||||||
Tyler Alexander (LHP, DET) | 1-1 | 4.80 | 4.97 | 4.29 | 4.61 | 19.3% | 5.4% | 39.2% | 46.1% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP, CIN) | 5-3 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 5.55 | 4.80 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 33.7% | 44.1% | ||||||||
Marcus Stroman (RHP, NYM) | 7-9 | 2.63 | 3.59 | 3.98 | 4.39 | 20.5% | 5.7% | 42.3% | 24.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Jordan Montgomery (LHP, NYY) | 4-5 | 3.78 | 3.99 | 4.05 | 4.04 | 24.3% | 7.5% | 36.8% | 37.4% | ||||||||
Sandy Alcantara* (RHP, MIA) | 6-9 | 3.29 | 3.88 | 4.11 | 3.35 | 21.3% | 7.4% | 38.2% | 28.2% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Brett Anderson (LHP, MIL) | 3-5 | 3.86 | 4.12 | 4.45 | 6.09 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 47.1% | 20.9% | ||||||||
Charlie Morton (RHP, ATL) | 10-3 | 3.72 | 3.53 | 3.72 | 3.69 | 27.7% | 8.6% | 34.7% | 28.5% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Cal Quantrill (RHP, CLE) | 2-2 | 3.66 | 4.75 | 4.84 | 5.20 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 37.6% | 32.0% | ||||||||
Reynaldo Lopez* (RHP, CHW) | 1-0 | 1.64 | 3.49 | 3.15 | 3.38 | 28.2% | 5.1% | 30.8% | 42.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Michael Pineda (RHP, MIN) | 4-5 | 3.86 | 4.18 | 4.17 | 4.65 | 21.5% | 5.4% | 43.6% | 40.2% | ||||||||
Adam Wainwright (RHP, STL) | 8-6 | 3.51 | 3.79 | 3.99 | 4.02 | 23.1% | 6.6% | 38.1% | 30.5% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) | 3-5 | 5.48 | 5.16 | 4.99 | 7.74 | 19.1% | 8.9% | 43.5% | 44.2% | ||||||||
Mike Foltynewicz (RHP, TEX) | 2-10 | 6.11 | 5.17 | 4.86 | 5.38 | 16.8% | 5.5% | 44.4% | 44.7% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Luis Garcia (RHP, HOU) | 7-5 | 3.19 | 3.79 | 3.57 | 3.46 | 29.3% | 7.7% | 39.3% | 44.0% | ||||||||
Logan Webb (RHP, SF) | 4-3 | 3.36 | 3.11 | 3.51 | 3.46 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 34.6% | 18.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Daulton Jefferies* (RHP, OAK) | 3-1 | 5.19 | 4.87 | — | — | 21.6% | 3.6% | — | 34.4% | ||||||||
Reid Detmers* (LHP, LAA) | 3-4 | 3.15 | 2.57 | — | — | 42.9% | 7.3% | — | 47.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Julio Urías (LHP, LAD) | 12-3 | 3.54 | 3.60 | 3.58 | 3.66 | 26.3% | 5.0% | 31.5% | 38.7% | ||||||||
Caleb Smith (LHP, ARI) | 3-7 | 4.61 | 4.93 | 4.38 | 4.49 | 26.2% | 11.4% | 32.3% | 50.5% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Austin Gomber (LHP, COL) | 8-5 | 3.69 | 3.73 | 3.97 | 3.56 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 33.2% | 32.5% | ||||||||
Reiss Knehr* (RHP, SD) | 6-2 | 3.66 | 4.94 | — | — | 20.9% | 10.5% | — | 30.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Nick Pivetta (RHP, BOS) | 8-4 | 4.51 | 4.45 | 4.27 | 3.99 | 26.0% | 10.4% | 39.8% | 43.6% | ||||||||
Shane McClanahan (LHP, TB) | 4-4 | 3.93 | 3.27 | 3.65 | 3.91 | 27.9% | 8.3% | 40.3% | 29.3% |
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY!