
In the following MLB weekly preview, we have a game breakdown for all 30 teams, pitching rankings and latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
They say the third go-around is usually when one hits their stride. You know, they. Them. The people who know. Now entering my third season of providing the MLB Weekly Preview, I have never felt more confident in my systems of data collection and resulting analysis. All of which are extremely time-consuming, but I could give a rat’s ass when I see our subscribers posting league-winning celebrations. Never was I more proud than what we accomplished together in the pandemic shortened season of 2020. With a tear in my eye…
While I had a disappointing fourth-place finish in my Roto OC, every other league was first or second. The league which ground my gears the most was my championship loss in Fantrax Dynasty, a league I’ve now belonged to for well over 11 years (aka my old ass can’t remember when I joined) and haven’t won. However, I learned something crucial which will benefit me this season: utilization of bulk relievers with elite ratios whose value is non-contingent upon role.
That’s what this game is, a constant learning curve, and I don’t mean Jesús Luzardo’s turkey sub! Am I the greatest fantasy baseball player who has ever walked God’s green earth? No, I am not. But I outwork my opponents, and this work ethic is what got me to where I am today. Some of you reading this may be more successful, and I applaud you for that, although I’ve been crushing fantasy baseball since 1997. So, I got veteran experience going for me, which is nice. But this doesn’t mean we don’t learn from each other to be the very best at what we do. I subscribe to symbiotic relationships. With this in mind, let’s go crush it!!!
In the following weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 MLB teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL information to help you dominate this week’s matchup and through the entirety of your seasonal league. Plus, new this season: Stolen Base Targets!
Scroll right to the part of the MLB Weekly Preview you need in just one click!
Below, you will find an interactive table of contents. Simply click on the section of the article you wanna read and boom.. presto… alakazam.
Best Buy Low Candidates
I can’t believe we’re entering week five of the fantasy baseball season, and we are already talking about buy-low candidates. But here we are. It was a topic we discussed briefly in the chat on Wednesday, where you can find me lurking every week from 1-2 pm ET, and @nysportsfn asked me to cover more in-depth for this week’s Opening Topic. Now, I’m not throwing shade on @nysportsfn for making the request. Matter of fact, it’s a damn good one! What I am amazed at is there are owners out there willing to trade top draft picks four weeks into the season because they’re not living up to expectations. Or even worse, dropping guys already who they valued just a month earlier.
Ray has discussed the importance of patience in fantasy baseball and the four key reasons to make a roster move in April. Vlad went on to discuss replacement value assessment and managing drops in 12-team leagues, including what categorizes as a good and bad drop. So, I’m not gonna rehash in this space. We know what to do to be successful. However, if these dumbass impatient owners are willing to sell low, well, why not exploit them? Like I said, a damn fine request to discuss. So, here are my top buy-low candidates.
*Stats as of 4/22
Gleyber Torres
73 PA, 0 HR, .219/.315/.220, 1 SB, 22.1% K-rate, 13.2% BB-rate, .246 wOBA, 57 wRC+, -0.1 WAR
Torres had an NFBC ADP of 63.77 from 1/1/21-4/1/21. That’s high, right? Still, owners are trying to dish him already after the slow start (including an owner in @nysportsfn’s league). You’re talking early sixth round in 12-team leagues and early fifth in those 15’s. I get it. He’s been disappointing in… 16 games. Last I checked, the season is 162. I conveniently left out game #17, as he went 3-for-5 vs. the Indians’ Aaron Civale. We should expect more games like this to come. Torres’ BABIP this season is .250 when for his career, the average is .301, so positive regression is in store. As for his lowly wOBA, the career mark is .346, and he even had .326 in his “down” year of 2020.
In terms of power, Torres has seen HR/FB rates of 17.9% and 21.5% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. This on the back of 42.7% and 41.9% fly-ball rates. In 2021 so far, he has posted a 45.5% with nothing to show for it. This will change soon. The barrel rates of 2018 and 2019 were 9.2% and 9.4% (739 total Batted Ball Events – BBE). As for 2021, the rate is 6.8%. While showing improvement on the 3.7% rate of 2020’s truncated season, it still has room to grow. He was on my Wish List for a reason.
Michael Conforto
54 PA, 0 HR, .178/.315/.244, 24.0% K-rate, 10.0% BB-rate, .267 wOBA, 71 wRC+, -0.1 WAR
Speaking of the wish list, I had Conforto there, too. Furthermore, his spring training was making me look like a genius. However, when the calendar turned to April, he has looked like a scared little boy at the dish. Showing zero aggression, he’s taking far too many pitches and getting down in the count. As a result, he’s rocking an ugly 2.40 K/BB rate, which is sixth-tenths above his career average (1.80). The zone contact percentage (Z-Contact%) is also ugly at 69.6% despite a lower chase rate (24.8%). Michael has regularly made contact with balls thrown for strikes. He has had his slumps in the past when fishing for pitches, which shows not all cold streaks are created equal. Over his career, his Z-Contact% lies at 83.8%. If he can be more aggressive on balls in the zone, I like his rebound chances.
Like Torres, let’s examine Conforto’s BABIP and wOBA. In 2021, the BABIP is even lower than Torres at .241. For his career, the average is .304. So again, positive regression is in store. The .267 wOBA is wicked lower than his career mark of .356, and even his xwOBA shows improvement is forthcoming (.290). Now should be the time to pounce if owners in your league are wavering on Conforto due to his lack of confidence. He went 4-for-10 in Colorado with a double and narrowly missed an opposite-field home run in Wrigley on 4/22. As I’ve written in the past, when you see him start to drive the ball oppo and make contact out in front of the plate, Conforto is about to EAT!
Kenta Maeda
4 GS, 17.2 IP, 6.11 ERA, 19.3% K-rate, 5.7% BB-rate, 30.6% GB rate, 32.3% FB rate, 43.8% HH rate
The velocity is consistent with his performances in the past three seasons. Chase rate is 84th percentile according to Baseball Savant. Maeda is still showing pristine control, which has brought him success with the low walk rate (75th percentile). Maeda has simply been unlucky in his four appearances, as evident by his .400 BABIP allowed – crazy number! Furthermore, his xERA is 1.64 runs lower at 4.47, and both the xFIP (4.31) and SIERA (4.29) are supportive. I’d like to see the hard-hit rate come down and the groundball rate go up to lower his earned runs and power given up. By the way, the lifetime GB rate is 41.3%. Throwing a few more sinkers could help out there.
A foolish fantasy owner may feel father time is creeping on Maeda and be willing to part with him despite his high draft selection (49.66 NFBC ADP). It’s been a rocky road so far in 2021, but the competition has been high – @MIL, @DET (his best start of season), BOS, @OAK – and we all know the A’s can not lose, again! Somebody in Oaktown wants another book written, aka Moneyball 2. Here are the next eight probable starts for Maeda: @CLE, TEX, @DET, OAK, CHW, BAL, @BAL, @KC. Juicy!
Chris Bassitt
4 GS, 22.1 IP, 4.43 ERA, 19.6% K-rate, 10.3% BB-rate, 42.4% GB rate, 31.8% FB rate, 36.4% HH rate
Widely known throughout Fantasy Guru, I can’t quit Chris Bassitt. I mean, how can you not be romantic about C Bass? Ok, it appears I am now auditioning for the Moneyball 2 writing gig, so let me get over myself and let you know why you should buy low on Bassitt. His 86.8 mph average exit velocity allowed ranks in the 72nd percentile, while his barrel rate is 83rd with two barrels in 66 BBE. This is parallel to his career mark of 88.3, and he’s always been single digits in barrel rate. Coupled with moderate hard-hit and fly-ball rates and an increasing groundball rate, one can see how he is due to lower the ERA. The key will be to lower his walks this season, as he has given 10 free passes out of 97 total batters faced (TBF).
Look, I realize Bassitt is not a sexy name, nor has he ever been sexy. However, he is great for maintaining categories and can shine in good matchups for point-based leagues. It’s still early, but the xERA of 4.38 speaks to how the rest of the season will go. You may have seen Bassitt hit your waiver wire after a fourth-straight mediocre start to begin the season. If this is the case, swoop him up and stash, for he has a gauntlet of rough matchups upcoming: @TB, TOR, TB, MIN, @LAA. After that, he sees the likes of Seattle twice, Colorado (at Coors, but he has the stuff that works there), Kansas City, and Texas. If still owned, patiently wait till those rough starts are almost over, then contact the owner to make a deal!
Buy High Candidates
On the flip side, here are some guys I would be willing to pay a king’s ransom to acquire. Impatience from fellow owners can translate into a need to “shake things up” by selling off pieces that they feel will only go down from here. But I’m here to tell you they won’t. It’s just as important to know who these guys are, as well.
Jazz Chisholm
Chisholm has emerged as one of baseball’s top fantasy shortstops. Odds are he won’t finish amongst the top shortstops, but at this point, who dafuq knows? He keeps getting better and is attacking major league pitching like gangbusters, more so than even this author gave him credit for entering the season. I didn’t even think we’d see him till later in the year, but we are playing COVID rules. As of this writing, Chisholm is 12th in Offensive WAR, and none of his underlying metrics are concerning. He is hitting .320/.426/.600 with three home runs, four stolen bases and a 1.026 OPS as of 4/22. The power-speed combo is exciting and has been a difference-maker! Chisholm is contributing in all categories and ranks among the best in the game in both barrel rate and sprint speed.
*Images courtesy of Baseball Savant & MLB.com
Here are the players who are in the 90th percentile or better in both barrel rate and sprint speed in 2021:
Chisholm – 98th in barrel rate, 93rd in sprint speed
Byron Buxton – 100th in barrel rate, 98th in sprint speed
Shohei Ohtani – 98th in barrel rate, 96th in sprint speed (we just saw both!)
Mike Trout – 98th in barrel rate, 96th in sprint speed
Ronald Acuña Jr. – 92nd in barrel rate, 97th in sprint speed
Chris Taylor (!) – 91st in barrel rate, 94th in sprint speed
Akil Baddoo (!!) – 90th in barrel rate, 95th in sprint speed
Kris Bryant
The fall of Kris Bryant has been greatly exaggerated. Just look at his 2019 numbers. Go ahead, I’ll wait. . . Ok, all done? I get that he lit the baseball world on fire in his National League Rookie of the Year season in 2015. Additionally, for a curtain call, he won the NL MVP the next season. After an injury-filled 2020, he is bouncing back nicely in 2021, as we predicted many times here at Fantasy Guru. His .283 batting average is higher than his .280 career mark. He has returned to form and already hit more home runs (five) in 15 games than he did in all of 2020 (four). A fellow fantasy manager may be willing to cash in on his low acquisition price (NFBC ADP – 124.51). With Bryant, it won’t take a king’s ransom to acquire a top-5 third baseman. Yeah, I said it.
Gerrit Cole
Adding Cole to this space feels a little weird. Like climbing the rope in gym class weird. The 30-year-old Yankee pitcher is super talented and can be downright dominant at times. Yet, we’ve also witnessed the fantasy baseball community question this dominance. Tsk, tsk! He is third in strikeout rate (41.1%) among qualified starters, trailing only Jacob deGrom (48.6%) and Corbin Burnes (47.1%). Burnes is a sweet target too, as we discussed last week.
Back to Cole, he has a 1.82 ERA (MLB rank, 16th) and 0.95 FIP (second). His NFBC ADP (7.26) and high cost means he needs to provide fantasy owners with outstanding numbers. So far so good, and it’s not gonna stop anytime soon.
As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team you would like me to cover in this section of the MLB Weekly Preview, drop a line in our VIP Chat Room or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.
MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
Now we are rocking and rolling as we head into the meat of the season with half the league scheduled for seven games. The benefit for some of our players comes at the cost of others who only play five. I will reiterate from last week; important to pay attention to games scheduled due to the disparity.
Michael Fulmer and Tarik Skubal have morphed into the Mega-Prospect and are pitching in tandem against the Yankees. Of all the tandems I’ve seen deployed, this is the one that meshes extremely well and will save Skubal on innings. However, it makes for a headache in fantasy for wins. In daily leagues devoid of start restrictions, a pro move is to roster either for some cheap points or maybe even start in tandem yourself. Meanwhile, Rays have now twice utilized Ryan Yarbrough as a bulk reliever behind an opener like back in the day. So far so good, so expect it to continue versus Oakland. Finally, like the Yankees, I penciled in Deivi García* (RHP) for the start on 4/26. New York is more than entertaining the notion of going to a six-man rotation for their seven-game week. It’s a decision St. Louis made for this week, as well.
Only a matter of time before rest of the league follows…
A Few Areas to Target
Home Away From Home for the Cubbies
Chicago is set to play seven games, and their hitters get a further value boost from three games in one of MLB’s most homer-friendly parks, Great American Ball Park (1.130 park factor for home runs). Suddenly hot Javier Báez will get to terrorize at least two southpaws during the seven games. He’s seen some extremes so far this season. He went from the golden sombrero one night to a grand salami the next night. Báez is the first player since Gorman Thomas (1978) to have four strikeouts one day and a grand slam the next.
Trolley Dodgers No More
LA left-handed hitters see SEVEN right-handed pitchers this week!!! This means Corey Seager and Max Muncy should EAT, and fellow lefty Edwin Ríos could see more playing time this week as well as a returning Gavin Lux. With Cody Bellinger and his replacement Zach McKinstry (oblique) on the injured list, fellow lefty Luke Raley makes for an interesting streamer in deep leagues or NL only.
The ‘Mirrorverse’ Does Exist
Not to be outdone, Houston projects to face at least five southpaws in their seven-game week. Astros are tied for third in wRC+ against lefties this season (131). Fire up Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and company! The team also believes Jose Altuve will clear COVID-19 protocols “pretty soon,” and he is already working out with teammates. For those in daily leagues, keep tabs on Altuve and/or look to stream Aledmys Díaz.
*SEE TWO-START PICTHERS FOR NOTE ON GARCIA
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. When Boston travels to Queens, you know they want their main man J.D. playing both games. This will cost Renfroe and Cordero at-bats since Martinez can play both corner outfield positions. Boston bats get a negative park shift too with a drop in runs of 0.172. We should also see Soler maintain his ABs in Pittsburgh by playing right field, which he has already seen five starts at this season. Park Factors are negligible.
On the other hand, two NL East teams will enjoy the designated hitter in Toronto Dunedin. It has been a hitter’s paradise in Florida with 1.031 run and 1.317 home run (0.051 higher than Coors Field) park factors. For Washington, the obvious choice for DH is Zimmerman, and he’ll probably garner both DH starts. However, when the Nats face former foe, Steven Matz, they may opt to sit a struggling Josh Bell, start Zimmerman at first base, and play Yadiel Hernandez as the DH. He has a sweet swing and looks the part of a professional hitter. Here are his numbers from Triple-A Fresno in 2019: 508 PA, .323/.406/.604, .413 wOBA, 139 wRC+, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 1.009 OPS, .280 ISO. Shit, maybe Hernandez gets both starts!
Kung Fu Panda had both starts at DH for the Braves this past week as expected, which should continue for this week.
*Rivalry Series: None again this week, but this time, I’m going back to ‘86!
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE
- Corbin Burnes (MIA, LAD)
- Walker Buehler (CIN, @MIL)
- Max Scherzer (@TOR, MIA)
- Lucas Giolito (DET, CLE)
- José Berríos (@CLE, KC)
- Zack Wheeler (@STL, NYM)
- Julio Urías (CIN, @MIL)
- Zach Plesac (MIN, @CHW)
- Charlie Morton (CHC, @TOR)
- Zach Eflin (@STL, NYM)
- Ian Anderson (CHC, @TOR)
- Tyler Mahle (@LAD, CHC)
- Frankie Montas (@TB, BAL)
- Sean Manaea (@TB, BAL)
- Corey Kluber (@BAL, DET)
Other Options: Trevor Rogers (@MIL, @WSH), Adam Wainwright (PHI, @PIT), Austin Gomber (@SF, @ARI), Cristian Javier & Jose Urquidy (SEA, @TB), Anthony DeSclafani (COL, @SD), Spencer Turnbull (KC, @NYY), Adrian Houser (MIA, LAD), David Peterson (BOS, @PHI), Trevor Williams (@ATL, @CIN), Michael Wacha (OAK, HOU) ← Last three are RISKY AF! *UPDATE (4/26): Deivi García made the start on 4/26. An ok outing, albeit it wild (3 BB in 4 IP). I believed Yankees would go with six-man rotation for this 13-game stretch without an off day, but I was wrong. García was optioned to Alt Site after the spot start. Corey Kluber two-step BACK ON (for now hehe). Added back to rankings above.
For a detailed breakdown of more two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 26 – MAY 2
Pitcher Spotlight: Nathan Eovaldi & Zac Gallen
On Monday, April 19, Nathan Eovaldi pitched his fourth game with 10+ strikeouts. It was the third since donning Red Sox. Getting finer with age??? Well, Eovaldi had himself a strong 2020, going 4-2 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 over his nine starts and 48.1 innings. He upped the number of cutters from 22.3% in 2019 to 31.1% while reducing his four-seam fastball (43.6% – 37.7%) and eliminating the slider. The cutter produced mixed results and a high wOBA (.367). But the differentiation between cut fastball and four-seamer produced swings and misses, along with playing up his 79 mph curveball, which has a low spin rate. All total, his CSW was 28.30%.
Interestingly enough, both Eovaldi and Boston’s coaching staff have reinvented his pitching repertoire yet again. The four-seamer is back to 43%+. He has reintroduced the slider and is throwing it 13.5% of the time. The cutter has gone waaaaay down to 12.7%, and the curveball is being thrown at a career-high 20.7%. He has Whiff percentages of 30% with the curve and 47.8 with the slide piece. As a result, the 31-year-old righty sits at 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA (2.13 xERA), 25.5% K-rate, 9.13 K/9, 4.3% BB-rate, 1.06 WHIP and 1.47 ABA (prior to 4/24 start vs. SEA).
Zac Gallen Slo-Mo Pitch Grips and Releases
On a recent edition of Ray’s Rundown podcast, Mr. Flowers pondered what we can do to improve the game of baseball and discussed the issue of moving the mound back. With the ever-growing number of strikeouts in the game, baseball’s brass is experimenting in the independent Atlantic League by moving the pitching rubber back one foot to 61 feet, six inches. The thought is to potentially lower the velocity to give hitters more of a chance since pitchers have become such physical specimens, compared to when the distance from mound to home plate was established at the classic 60 feet, six inches. Ray went on to discuss how pitchers today are replicating release points and disguising pitch grips with such mastery. Something needs to be done to even out the playing field and provide our fantasy teams with more offense!
When talking about the ball coming from the same arm angle and release point with regularity, I immediately thought of Gallen. He does a good job disguising his pitch grips, too. Take a look at this slo-mo video to see what I mean.
While maybe not quite the “physical specimen” Ray was referring to, although he does stand 6’2” tall, Gallen has been tough to hit. He had a 31.60% CSW in 2020. His mechanics will help him if the change in rubber location ever comes to major league baseball. And as long as he can keep that 9-10 mph difference between four-seam fastball and change, along with the cut fastball, he should be alright. Although, the difference between 93 and 91 mph can be quite stark. I worry more for those who rely purely on velocity to blow hitters away. We’ll have to see what the Atlantic League data has to say.
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Mike Trout (left elbow) was held out of the lineup on 4/24 due to a contusion on the left elbow. He hasn’t played since being hit by a 93 mph fastball from Houston’s Cristian Javier on 4/22. He was supposed to play the day after, batting third and playing center field, but was scratched after it was determined he couldn’t go. Trout is considered day-to-day… aren’t we all. *UPDATE: After again sitting on 4/25 due to the ailment, Trout is expected to return to lineup on 4/26.
Christian Yelich Update – Yelich returned to Milwaukee for an MRI of his lower back strain. As we discussed last week, he went to the 10-day IL on 4/17 since his back tightness never loosened. Moreover, there is a growing concern due to the lack of progress in rehab. The former MVP last saw game action on 4/11 in St. Louis and was eligible to come off the injured list on 4/24. *MRI revealed no structural damage.
Lance Lynn (strained right trapezius) – Lynn returns from the 10-day IL to start 4/30 against the Indians, barring any setbacks. The 33-year-old pitcher has been on the shelf since 4/17, a slightly extended stay. *UPDATE: Lynn will start 5/1.
Noah Syndergaard faced live hitters for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery. He reportedly was already hitting 97 on the gun, FWIW. He may be ahead of schedule, but with Mets pitching depth, the team can afford to be patient.
Brian Anderson (left oblique strain) lands on the 10-day IL after beginning to feel soreness on his left side. Manager Don Mattingly attempted to nurse the nicked-up third baseman with some time off, but as it turns out, the injury will need more time to heal. Jon Berti will see an uptick of at-bats while filling in at third and makes a decent pickup for next week, especially with his eligibility at multiple positions. Maybe, with more playing time, he can find his grove both at the plate and on the basepaths. Although, at this point, it appears the 10 days will be all that is required for Anderson. Obliques can be tricky, however.
Jake Odorizzi (right forearm tightness) left his last start after only making five pitches. He began feeling the tightness after gaining one single out, which is never good news. Unknown if the injury will force him to miss time, but Kent Emanuel (LH) replaced him in the game and could step in as a starter if Odorizzi is unable to make his next start. Emanuel went on to get the other 26 outs in an outstanding relief effort. As a result, Emanuel posted the longest relief appearances in an MLB debut since 1974 (John Montefusco – 9 IP). Mariners’ lefty/righty opposition splits would thus change to two left and five right.
For those brave enough to roll with Brett Anderson (upper calf), you will not have him as an option this week since he was placed on the 10-day IL 4/24. He left his most recent start after getting merely one out and was sent for an MRI. Obviously, the results were not good. Milwaukee may turn towards Eric Lauer (LH) to fill the spot. He is certainly not a viable fantasy option, especially after being torched this spring to the tune of eight earned runs and a 3:7 K:BB over five innings. Who I’m more excited to see pitch at this level is righty reliever Phil Bickford (called up in corresponding move). Bickford has been electric in the minors, albeit at the High-A level, posting a 14.60 K/9 in 2019 (32.2 IP/20 APP). What a stable of BP arms!
This just in… Lucas Giolito is a dope. A day before his 4/25 scheduled start, he cut his finger on a bottle because he thought it was a twist-off. What is this, amateur hour? The good news is it’s healing well. However, this marks the second week in a row we miss a Giolito two-step. So, we’ll try again for this upcoming week. He is penciled in for the 4/27 start vs. DET, which would set up the two starts (CLE). Fingers crossed and sorry Carlos Rodón owners!
POV SPECIAL – TOP SP STREAM OF THE WEEK
→ Tyler Anderson, LH PIT (KC, STL – 27% owned) – If you thought I was crazy with Joe Ross last week, wait ’til they you get a load of me this! My man Anderson takes on both teams from Missouri, Ozark style. There is a slight chance recently called up Wil Crowe will get the start against the Cards, but with two off-days this week, the team will not need the fifth starter again until 5/11 (Crowe confirmed for 5/2 start vs. STL – DAMN IT! Still, nice results for Anderson against KC).
Both Kansas City and St. Louis’ offenses have been middle-of-the-road this season. The Royals are 15th in team OPS and 14th in runs scored on the young season. The numbers for the Cards are 16th and 11th. So what at first looked like challenging matchups are still just that, but not as bad as you probably thought. Each team fields six right-handed hitters in their starting lineup, so maybe that’s going to be a problem for Anderson. However, these career stats show otherwise (with exception of wOBA).
VS. LHH: 117.1 IP, .268/.321/.449, .237 wOBA, 8.13 K/9, 3.31 K/BB
VS. RHH: 360.0 IP, .265/.325/.464, .336 wOBA, 8.08 K/9, 2.63 K/BB
Additionally, a lot of Tyler Anderson’s tenure involved pitching home games at Coors Field. He is free now! In 2021, he’s 2-2 with a 3.92 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, 3.87 SIERA, 5.00 xERA, 24.1% K-rate, 6.9% BB-rate, 38.3% hard-hit rate, 38.3% groundball rate and 36.7% flyball rate. It has only been four starts, but the stats are consistent with what we saw in San Fran last year in 11 starts (13 appearances).
Anderson’s 86.6 average exit velocity is 77th percentile according to Baseball Savant. The chase rate is 81st percentile as his mix of the cutter (84-85 mph), sinker (89-90 mph) and fourseam fastball (90 mph) puts batters away with a high spin rate, which is 90th percentile. As you can see, he doesn’t blow hitters away but changes the eye level of hitters with a five-pitch repertoire. The cut fastball has been effective with a .275 xBA, .286 SLG and .262 wOBA. Anderson’s fourseamer and changeup have created his highest whiff percentages of 35.7% and 30.4% respectively, and the sinker has his highest put-away percentage at 30%. His changeup comes into the plate at roughly 10 mph slower than the fourseam and sinker. This is how he is successful. Now, if his teammates can just score him enough runs. He faces probable starters Jakob Junis and Adam Wainwright.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, May 2, 2021
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Carlos Martínez (RHP, STL) | 1-4 | 4.76 | 4.73 | 4.76 | 5.69 | 14.4% | 5.9% | 47.8% | 33.7% | ||||||||
Wil Crowe (RHP, PIT) | 0-0 | 3.86 | 4.25 | 5.34 | 4.38 | 22.7% | 18.2% | 38.5% | 15.4% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
José Ureña (RHP, DET) | 1-3 | 3.77 | 4.15 | 4.71 | 4.10 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 44.8% | 18.4% | ||||||||
Corey Kluber (RHP, NYY) | 1-2 | 4.15 | 5.54 | 5.24 | 4.94 | 18.8% | 12.9% | 36.4% | 37.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Trevor Rogers (LHP, MIA) | 3-1 | 1.29 | 3.03 | 3.01 | 2.23 | 34.9% | 9.2% | 45.0% | 41.4% | ||||||||
Max Scherzer (RHP, WSH) | 1-2 | 3.00 | 3.56 | 3.12 | 3.70 | 32.8% | 5.2% | 39.4% | 57.1% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Ian Anderson (RHP, ATL) | 2-0 | 2.48 | 3.02 | 3.67 | 4.07 | 26.5% | 10.3% | 40.5% | 20.0% | ||||||||
Ross Stripling* (RHP, TOR) | 0-1 | 7.56 | 4.25 | 3.98 | 7.49 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 50.0% | 42.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Trevor Williams (RHP, CHC) | 2-2 | 4.44 | 3.69 | 3.92 | 5.03 | 24.5% | 9.1% | 49.3% | 27.5% | ||||||||
Tyler Mahle (RHP, CIN) | 1-1 | 1.75 | 3.48 | 3.16 | 2.55 | 35.3% | 10.8% | 37.7% | 48.1% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Cristian Javier (RHP, HOU) | 3-0 | 0.87 | 3.32 | 3.05 | 3.26 | 32.9% | 7.6% | 46.7% | 42.2% | ||||||||
Rich Hill (LHP, TB) | 1-1 | 7.25 | 3.77 | 3.72 | 4.04 | 25.3% | 7.4% | 40.3% | 35.0% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Brad Keller (RHP, KC) | 2-2 | 9.00 | 5.17 | 5.37 | 7.77 | 13.5% | 11.5% | 38.0% | 22.5% | ||||||||
José Berríos (RHP, MIN) | 2-2 | 3.04 | 2.96 | 3.07 | 4.10 | 32.4% | 7.8% | 35.6% | 32.8% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Zach Plesac (RHP, CLE) | 1-3 | 5.81 | 3.83 | 3.96 | 4.44 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 40.9% | 31.0% | ||||||||
Lucas Giolito (RHP, CHW) | 1-2 | 5.68 | 3.16 | 3.43 | 3.78 | 30.3% | 9.2% | 39.4% | 33.8% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Julio Urías (LHP, LAD) | 3-0 | 3.23 | 3.43 | 3.39 | 3.12 | 26.2% | 4.9% | 30.1% | 38.3% | ||||||||
Alec Bettinger* (RHP, MIL) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Garrett Richards (RHP, BOS) | 1-2 | 4.94 | 4.75 | 4.87 | 4.78 | 20.2% | 11.9% | 49.3% | 32.9% | ||||||||
Mike Foltynewicz (RHP, TEX) | 1-3 | 4.61 | 4.23 | 3.99 | 4.78 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 47.6% | 43.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Bruce Zimmermann (LHP, BAL) | 1-3 | 5.33 | 4.52 | 4.83 | 7.00 | 16.2% | 7.2% | 43.5% | 33.7% | ||||||||
Sean Manaea (LHP, OAK) | 3-1 | 2.83 | 3.79 | 3.78 | 3.10 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 35.4% | 39.0% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Chi Chi González (RHP, COL) | 1-0 | 3.60 | 4.40 | 4.96 | 5.76 | 14.3% | 8.3% | 41.5% | 27.0% | ||||||||
Merrill Kelly (RHP, ARI) | 2-2 | 6.33 | 4.62 | 4.77 | 6.18 | 15.3% | 5.9% | 45.7% | 34.4% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Dylan Bundy (RHP, LAA) | 0-2 | 4.20 | 3.60 | 3.43 | 2.88 | 27.4% | 6.5% | 30.0% | 39.2% | ||||||||
Justus Sheffield (LHP, SEA) | 1-2 | 5.32 | 4.12 | 4.27 | 5.72 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 39.4% | 27.5% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Kevin Gausman (RHP, SF) | 1-0 | 2.14 | 3.80 | 3.72 | 3.83 | 26.2% | 7.7% | 34.9% | 41.9% | ||||||||
Joe Musgrove (RHP, SD) | 2-2 | 1.24 | 2.09 | 2.18 | 2.81 | 37.3% | 4.5% | 36.1% | 27.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
David Peterson (LHP, NYM) | 1-3 | 5.59 | 2.98 | 3.30 | 5.10 | 26.3% | 7.5% | 32.7% | 21.6% | ||||||||
Zach Eflin (RHP, PHI) | 1-1 | 3.58 | 3.47 | 3.66 | 4.10 | 21.1% | 1.6% | 48.5% | 35.7% |
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY! Promo code Red10 gets you 10% off ANY Elite Sports Package, including VIP.