MLB Weekly Preview: May 2 – 8

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover in an adjoining article, drop a line in Discord or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

*UPDATE (5/3): PIT goes to 2 L / 4 R, MIA goes to 2 L / 5 R
*UPDATE (5/5): ATL goes to 3 L / 4 R

Before we get into this week’s notes, in honor of the final episodes for ‘Ozark’, I have a special message for our competition:

NOTES: Big week for interleague contests, which matters less now in fantasy with the Universal DH. However, there is still some importance with hitters stepping up to plates unfamiliar. But more appropriately, we will see park shifts that go against normal convention, so use the park factor table below to see which of your hitters benefit or take a hit. Furthermore, with lots of interleague series, we see three five-game weeks (Texas Rangers, who tour around the East Coast with a two-game set in Philly followed by three in the Bronx, Chicago Cubs, and unfortunately, LA Dodgers, who could see four out of five lefties). Pittsburgh would have had a five-game week, but they play two with the Cincinnati Reds on 5/7. Outside of that, we have 11 teams with seven games and 15 teams with six (along with one special team listed in target areas below).

In the second stanza of the I-70 Series, the Cardinals and Royals will engage in a “hockey-style” home-and-home on 5/2-3, followed by a second home game for Kansas City on 5/4. The first game is the make-up for the 4/13 PPD, but sadly, it won’t rematch the lost Zack Greinke vs. Adam Wainwright. The White Sox schedule also seems odd, with one home game and five on the road. But this is merely due to them wrapping up a four-game set with the Halos from last week on 5/2 before heading to the Northside for a two-game Windy City Showdown. 

A Few Areas to Target

Meet the Mets
On the heels of the club’s second no-hitter, New York plays a fantasy season-high eight games this week, with a home doubleheader scheduled on 5/3 versus Atlanta. And this isn’t a cheap eight games as we’ve seen the past two seasons; this is 72 innings of unadulterated baseball (aka back to nine-inning doubleheaders). Find a way to jam in your Mets hitters. They’re due to face two left-handed starters and six right-handers. So, lean in your focus on Jeff McNeil (.344/.400/.500, .400 wOBA, 167 wRC+, 75% rostered in redraft, 95+% dynasty), Brandon Nimmo (.271/.386/.508, .397 wOBA, 164 wRC+, 50%, 85%) and Francisco Lindor (.284/.366/.494, .381 wOBA, 154 wRC+). I love how Lindor is swinging the stick from the left side, but he’s an equal opportunity basher of the baseball. McNeil’s up to sixth in the order, gardening more RBI opportunities. 

Angels & Airwaves
Remember when I mentioned the Halos wrap a four-game set on 5/2? This gives Los Angeles a seven-game week, with a trip to Boston for three coupled with welcoming the Nationals for a three-game set in Anaheim over the weekend. Mr. Soto, please meet Mr. Trout. Focusing on the Angels hitters, they have a positive park shift to Fenway before heading home to their hitter-friendly Angels Stadium. Shohei Ohtani will take the mound at Boston, so with the seven-game schedule and hitter-friendly locations, I recommend playing Ohtani the hitter in weekly formats.

I’m an “Oriole,” You Gotta Let Me Fly!
Orioles face six right-handed starting pitchers, all at Camden Yards. Is this the week Cedric Mullins turns it around? Surprisingly, he’s faired better against the same handedness in 2022 so far, but in 2021 (428 PA vs. RHP), Mullins stroked a .299/.372/.558 slash line with a .391 wOBA, 148 wRC+ and 21 of his 30 home runs vs. right-handed pitching. In comparison, those numbers were respectively .277/.337/.451, .339 and 113 vs. lefties (247 PA). 

“You’re Recommending Reds… You Have To Be Shitting Me!”
Before you mute me on Discord, hear me out. First, your Reds hitters play seven games in another pair of hitter-friendly parks, American Family Field and Great American Ball Park (peep their park factors). They play seven games in six days with the doubleheader on 5/7, but as I pointed out about the Mets above, it’s “unadulterated baseball.” Furthermore, Cincinnati is scheduled to face six right-handed starters plus a righty bulk man, and none of them are named Corbin Burnes:

• Brandon Woodruff
• Freddy Peralta – Rough first two, no doubt, but…
• Adrian Houser
• Zach Thompson
• JT Brubaker
• Mitch Keller
• Dillon Peters/Bryse Wilson – Pitching in tandem

This is just the type of week where you can get some sneaky performances from the likes of Tyler Naquin (5% rostered in redraft, 54% dynasty) on the left side of a platoon at DH, Joey Votto (75% & dropping, 90% – you following this dude on Instagram yet?) and the long lost moose, Mike Moustakas (10%, 42%).

Judge and His Mashing Court All Set To Rule Toronto

The couple Yankees who remained unvaccinated into last week have told the team they are now vaccinated. Which is why manager Aaron Boone was able to say he’s confident all his players will be eligible to play in Toronto.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) April 20, 2022

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IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2021 Statistics

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TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Brandon Woodruff⁵ (CIN, @ATL) ← Aaron Ashby will re-enter the rotation so MIL can keep Woodruff on an extra day of rest with the other staff.
2. Dylan Cease¹⁶ (LAA, @BOS)
3. Max Fried²⁰ (@NYM, MIL)
4. Alek Manoah²³ (NYY, @CLE)
5. Pablo López²⁵ (ARI, @SD)
6. Carlos Rodón²⁶ (@LAD, STL) ← Rodón is being pushed to 5/9 for an extra day of rest ?‍♂️
7. Trevor Rogers²⁸ (ARI, @SD)
8. Chris Bassitt²⁹ (ATL, @PHI)
9. Tyler Mahle³² (@MIL, PIT) ← Mahle and Gutierrez flip rotation spots, which gives Mahle the two-start week.
10. Patrick Sandoval⁴⁰ (@CHW, WSH)
11. Germán Márquez⁴⁹ (WSH, @ARI)
12. Carlos Carrasco⁵¹ (ATL, @PHI) ← Pushed to next week with 5/6 PPD (makeup 8/20)
13. Zack Greinke⁵⁵ (@STL, @BAL)
14. Zac Gallen⁵⁶ (@MIA, COL)
15. Chris Paddack⁵⁷ (@BAL, OAK)
16. Joe Ryan⁶⁰ (@BAL, OAK) ← Pushed to 5/10 with Sonny Gray activation on 5/7 (Paddack already pushed to 5/8).

Other Options: Jordan Montgomery⁶⁵ (@TOR, TEX), Marco Gonzales⁶⁷ (@HOU, TB), Ranger Suárez⁷² (TEX, NYM)*, Steven Matz⁷⁵ (KC, @SF), Michael Pineda⁸³ (PIT, @HOU), Chris Flexen⁸⁴ (@HOU, TB), Kyle Wright⁸⁵ (@NYM, MIL)*, Dakota Hudson¹⁰² (@KC, @SF)

*A Ranger vs. the Rangers… you knew I had to point out the blatantly ironic. But what’s really ironic is how Suárez is not living up to unfair expectations. That’s why he’s an ‘other option.’ Wright’s second start versus the Brewers could go to either him or Charlie Morton³³; my lean is Wright, as the move would give an aging Morton extra rest during a struggling time. Update (5/3): Pineda loses second start due to 5/3 PPD… (5/6) Suárez will lose second start due to 5/6 PPD… (5/7) Seattle will add prized-prospect George Kirby (No. 29 overall) to the major-league roster to make his debut on 5/8. As a result, Flexen will be pushed to 5/9 to fill an opening in the rotation.

Danger Zone: Tyler Wells¹⁰⁵ (MIN, KC), Zach Plesac¹¹⁸ (SD, TOR), Jake Odorizzi¹²⁸ (SEA, DET), Michael Wacha¹³⁷ (LAA, CHW), Ryan Yarbrough¹³⁸ (@OAK, @SEA)*, Ross Stripling^NR (NYY, @CLE)*, Daulton Jefferies^NR (TB, @MIN), Drew Smyly^NR (CHW, LAD), Erick Fedde^NR (@COL, @LAA), Vladimir Gutierrez^NR (@MIL, PIT), Jon Gray¹⁰⁷ (@PHI, @NYY)

*Tampa Bay is leaning toward having Yarbrough (groin) join the major-league club for his next turn through the rotation, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. I’d be willing to start Stripling in an RP slot to get two extra starts in a weekly league (mostly for the second start). Update (5/3): Plesac loses second start due to 5/3 PPD; Smyly was placed on the bereavement list but will return 5/7 to face LAD… (5/7) T. Wells loses second start due to two-consecutive PPDs & Orioles shuffling pitchers to make it work.

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STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR May 2 – 8

EDIT: Houck will continue to be used out of the pen, and Garrett Whitlock will make the start 5/4 vs. LAA.
UPDATE (5/3) – Tarik Skubal will more than likely shift to 5/5 @HOU and Pineda loses second start. Snell will likely come back next week with 5/3 PPD shifting things & Nick Martinez expected to start 5/5 before potentially joining the pen.
UPDATE (5/5): Aaron Ashby⁹⁹ will pitch on 5/8 @ATL

Pitching Spotlight

Alek Manoah is closing in on Blue Jays history. Toronto is undefeated in the 24-year-old’s last 12 trips to the hill dating back to last season, which is tied with J.A. Happ and Jimmy Key for second in franchise history. Manoah has won eight straight himself, which joins even more lofty company (t-2, Roger Clemens). Number one on both lists is no big surprise: the late great Roy Halladay. Toronto won 14 straight when Halladay took the hill in 2003, including his 11-start winning streak. If Manoah keeps dominating the competition, it won’t be long till he joins the legend.

Manoah is coming off his best start of the season so far on 4/28 (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K). The game wasn’t as rosy as the final stat line, but the young bulldog got himself out of trouble with his high-riding heater and by spotting his slider with regularity. “My mentality is that it doesn’t matter what happened in the past,” said Manoah. “They still gotta come and try to beat me now. So, I just continue to compete and continue to make good pitches.” 

On MLB Network, Manoah said he could see a career in broadcasting after pitching “at least” ten years in the bigs. As fantasy managers, we are only in year two (first full year). If his early-career success and bulldog demeanor is indicative of what is to come, we are in for one helluva ride! Presently, I’m working on a deal to secure the Homestead, FL product in a dynasty league. If you play in any kind of keeper format, I’d recommend doing the same. This kid is special. 

Six-Man Pitching Staffs: LAA, HOU, MIL*, MIN*, SD*

Milwaukee will rotate between a five- and six-man rotation based on schedule needs. Aaron Ashby will be utilized on and off as a multi-inning guy and starter when the team does not have an off day. This will consistently keep the rotation at an extra day of rest. UPDATE (5/5): Ashby will pitch on 5/8 @ATL.

Twins are rolling with five starters until Sonny Gray (hamstring) returns from IL, which could happen as soon as late this week after his minor-league rehab start at Fort Myers. *UPDATE: Gray threw three scoreless innings with five strikeouts and no walks in the rehab start on 5/1. This puts him on track to return 5/6 vs. OAK, although there’s been no confirmation of this. It will likely hinge upon how the 32-year-old rebounds from the outing. **Gray is now rumored to be activated to face his former club on 5/7 instead of pitching one more rehab game at Triple-A St. Paul… Confirmed by Do-Hyoung Park, Twins reporter for MLB.com.

However, after 5/30 when pitcher max reduces to 13 (we think!), manager Rocco Baldelli had this to say: “If that number shrinks going forward and does go down to 13, I don’t want to say it would be impossible, but it would be very difficult to have a six-man rotation.”

Twins have prospect Josh Winder (MLB #91, MIN #4) that they like as a starter in their long-relief role, so he would be a candidate to head down to Triple-A St. Paul. This would leave Griffin Jax as the lone long man and leave the pen a man short. In my opinion, once Gray is 100% healthy and a decision needs to be made, Chris Archer will be used in long relief or tandem with another pitcher, say Dylan Bundy or even Bailey Ober if his groin injury turns out to be worse than expected. (Ober is now on the 10-day IL retro to 4/29 and will miss at least one turn through the rotation.)

On the horizon (potentially as soon as this week) is San Diego when Mike Clevinger and Blake Snell return; MacKenzie Gore is making a hard push to stay with the big club, and Ray writes the Padres could shift Nick Martinez to the pen. Good decisions to have, and things have a way of working themselves out. 

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MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Kris Bryant – 10-DAY IL, Back Strain
After some deliberation, the Rockies placed Bryant on the injured list (retro 4/26), which means Bryant is eligible to return by the end of the week. “It was just the soreness — we felt it wasn’t getting better to the point where we felt he was going to be able to play in the next couple of days,” Rockies manager Bud Black said. “That should give him, we hope, ample time to get healthy and feel good about where he is physically with his back.” I expect KB to be back when first eligible.

Andrew Vaughn – DTD, Bruised Hand
Vaughn was nailed by a fastball on the right hand, but the good news is X-rays came back negative. He was out of the lineup on 4/30, and there’s no indication if he’ll miss additional time. Those in daily leagues can stream Gavin Sheets if indeed the prior remains out of the lineup. White Sox have been hit hard by the injury bug in the early goings, but some bright lights are coming into picture. Not only did Luis Robert return to the lineup on 4/29 and avoid the IL (also hit a three-run bomb on 4/30!), Lance Lynn is ahead of schedule and threw a BP session on 4/28. Furthermore, Yoán Moncada (oblique) began his rehab on 4/29 with Triple-A Charlotte. 

J.D. Martinez – Scratched 4/30, Left Adductor Tightness
Something to pay attention to here, especially with the way managers downplay injuries these days. Just before first pitch, JDM was pulled from the starting nine when he could “feel it” during warmups. Manager Alex Cora said Martinez could have played, but they chose the safe approach. Hmm, hmm. J.D. is “likely” tabbed for the starting lineup on 5/1.

Michael Brantley – Scratched 4/29, Health & Safety Protocols
Not much is known at the time of publication. So I’ll talk about the saga that is Ryan Pressly’s right knee. The latest is throwing on the side off of flat ground while wearing a protective sleeve. He will need to demonstrate at least 80-90% strength in a BP session or simulated game before being activated.

Mitch Haniger – 10-DAY IL, Right High Ankle Sprain
After fouling a pitch off his ankle on 4/29, he left the game after only one plate appearance. He’s donning the dreaded walking boot, and we are awaiting MRI results for a timeline. Jesse Winker and Dylan Moore will be the benefactors while Haniger is on the shelf. My guess is it will be on the shorter side since the injury wasn’t sustained by rolling the ankle.

Teoscar Hernández – 10-DAY IL, Left Oblique Strain
Now, some good news. Hernández took live BP and expects to go on a brief minor-league rehab assignment. He could be back in the Jays’ lineup as soon as this weekend. The live BP was pitched by Hyun Jin Ryu, who is rehabbing himself from forearm tightness. The next step is a rehab start. Ryu should only miss one more turn through the rotation and could replace either Ross Stripling or a struggling Yusei Kikuchi.

Dylan Floro – 10-DAY IL, Rotator Cuff Tendinitis
Floro made a rehab appearance with Triple-A Jacksonville on 4/30, pitching a scoreless eighth inning. It was his third rehab outing after making two appearances for Single-A Jupiter. He is scheduled to make another rehab appearance for Jacksonville on 5/1 for a back-to-back outing, which will be the final hurdle. Once back, he will compete with Anthony Bender for save opportunities, as the latter has carved a role while Floro is out. For the latest, make sure to catch Ray’s Closer Grid for Week 5 on Tuesday!

Joc Pederson  – DTD, Grade 1 Adductor Strain
Adductor strains are the new obliques… just saying. While a stint on the injured list has not been ruled out, Pederson missed his second game due to the ailment on 4/30. He’s also expected to miss a few more. Luis Gonzalez (0.5% rostered in redraft, 9% dynasty) will cover his side of Team Platoon.

This just in…

Wander Franco scratched with right hamstring tightness. #MNTwins

— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) May 1, 2022

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Bruce Zimmermann^NR, LH BAL (MIN, KC; 11.5% owned in redraft, 51% dynasty) – This is the riskiest I’ve gone all season, but sometimes that’s why you skim right to this section. We’ve been on a roll, so WTF! Zimmermann is a former fifth-round pick who was one of the lesser prospects in the Kevin Gausman deal. But I like what I saw during film study as he came up through the Orioles system and was thrust into action during the pandemic. It’s only been four starts and 19.1 IP, but he may have taken the next step this season. 

Zimmermann’s carrying an unsustainable 0.93 ERA, but the 2.87 xFIP, 3.19 SIERA and 3.62 xERA are not too shabby. This call could easily blow up in our faces, but I’m here to ride guys when they’re rolling well! After three strong outings, Zimmer ran into some bad luck against the Yankees. Yet, he still had a decent stat line with the four unearned runs. He’s battling! The strikeout numbers have been sparkling in 2022, and while his 26.3% K rate is well above normal, it’s not far off the 23.8% he posted in his season with the most innings tossed, 2019 (101.1 IP). His changeup has a 39.2 CSW% on it, which is the fifth-best mark in baseball and fourth among starters this season. 

A big difference this year has been better control. The walk rate lies at 7.5%. And while that’s a few points above league average, it’s an improvement and shows consistency across all of his MLB innings. Contact has been hard with his 41.5% hard-hit rate. But Zimmerman has improved his ground-ball rate to 43.1% GB and lowered his fly-ball rate to 29.4% so far, eliciting more outs. And remember the pushed-back fences in left field at Camden Yards. Let’s roll the dice!!!

Honorable Mention: Drew Rasmussen⁷⁰, RH TB (@OAK, @SEA; 43%,85%) – Ras fired six scoreless innings against Seattle last time out, giving up only two hits and one walk with nine strikeouts. Manager Kevin Cash usually brings the hook the third time through the lineup, which cuts down on Rasmussen’s fantasy production. However, if Cash allows him to go deeper like this, I like Ras’ chances with two solid matchups awaiting him.

Solo Start: Tyler Anderson¹³⁵, LH LAD (@CHC; 15%, 48%)

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, May 8, 2022
NEW FORMAT! ?