MLB Weekly Preview: April 19 – 25

In the following MLB weekly preview, we have a game breakdown for all 30 teams, pitching rankings and latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

In memory of John Cannella Sr.

They say the third go-around is usually when one hits their stride. You know, they. Them. The people who know. Now entering my third season of providing the MLB Weekly Preview, I have never felt more confident in my systems of data collection and resulting analysis. All of which are extremely time-consuming, but I could give a rat’s ass when I see our subscribers posting league-winning celebrations. Never was I more proud than what we accomplished together in the pandemic shortened season of 2020. With a tear in my eye…

While I had a disappointing fourth-place finish in my Roto OC, every other league was first or second. The league which ground my gears the most was my championship loss in Fantrax Dynasty, a league I’ve now belonged to for well over 11 years (aka my old ass can’t remember when I joined) and haven’t won. However, I learned something crucial which will benefit me this season: utilization of bulk relievers with elite ratios whose value is non-contingent upon role.

That’s what this game is, a constant learning curve, and I don’t mean Jesús Luzardo’s turkey sub! Am I the greatest fantasy baseball player who has ever walked God’s green earth? No, I am not. But I outwork my opponents, and this work ethic is what got me to where I am today. Some of you reading this may be more successful, and I applaud you for that, although I’ve been crushing fantasy baseball since 1997. So, I got veteran experience going for me, which is nice. But this doesn’t mean we don’t learn from each other to be the very best at what we do. I subscribe to symbiotic relationships. With this in mind, let’s go crush it!!!

In the following weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 MLB teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL information to help you dominate this week’s matchup and through the entirety of your seasonal league. Plus, new this season: Stolen Base Targets!

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Is Byron Buxton Finally Here to Stay?

Far too often, we have been teased by Mr. Buxton. A long-heralded prospect and five-tool studmuffin, we have all been eagerly waiting for him to be the fantasy star his minor-league numbers indicated he would be. It hasn’t happened yet, but could this be the moment? Through 36 plate appearances (as of 4/15), Buxton is hitting .469/.528/1.094 with five home runs. He’s had streaks similar to this before, so what makes us think this time it will stick?

Buxton’s xwOBA will tell us how much of this run is due to luck and can it continue. He currently has a mark of .558, which is second-highest in all of baseball behind teammate Nelson Cruz. Look at this company!

1. Cruz: .583
2. Buxton: .558
3. Ronald Acuna Jr.: .555
4. Mike Trout: .517
5. Will Smith: .512
6. Juan Soto: .510

Injuries will always be in the back of the mind for Buxton owners. This is out of our control. But he looks to be in the best shape I’ve seen him as a professional, and he could be geared to finally take the next step. 

From 2015-20, Buxton posted a 20.9% whiff rate on pitches in the strike zone. This season, the mark is 14.3%, and his .556 xBA and 1.476 xSLG on in-zone pitches are both tops in MLB (min. 10 PA in such batted ball events). His total whiff rate is 22.2%, which is roughly 8% lower than his career average. This all equates to fewer two-strike counts, benefitting the batting average. Buxton is standing tall at the plate with a 16.7% K-rate. 

We’ve established the quality of contact with Buxton’s xwOBA, but he’s also hitting the ball harder than he ever has. Out of the 15 hardest batted-ball events in his career, four have already come this season. And as for number one, that too has come this season on a 451-foot blast, clocking at 114.1 mph. Overall, Buxton has a 72.7% hard-hit rate. Again, among some of the best hitters in baseball (99^th percentile according to Baseball Savant rankings). In 2020, he ranked 89^th percentile in hard-hit rate and 88^th in barrel rate (2021 barrel rate percentile – 99^th). So, he has been here before, and the interesting question is can he maintain the improvement. 

Byron has always brought speed, and players who combine superior power with his level of speed are few and far between. This is the type of combination we salivate over as fantasy baseball owners. The mistress of baseball analytics, Sarah Langs, recently tweeted this out:

Is Byron Buxton finally here to stay? The outlook is promising, but larger samples loom, and the threat of injury is here. He is presently dealing with a mild hamstring strain but would have been back in the lineup had the Twins played. Rest of the series with the Angles has been PPD due to a COVID outbreak on Twins. Postponements have been a running theme this past week. However, when Minnesota returns to play, and as long as his health holds up in the long run of the season, I predict we have hit the promised land.

As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team you would like me to cover in this section of the MLB Weekly Preview, drop a line in our VIP Chat Room or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

Important to pay attention to games scheduled this week as we have some disparity. Holy PPDs, Batman! This week’s grid was harder to put together than… you know, what? I’m not going to finish that sentence. Not trying to get fined. Bottom line, you will need to pay attention to any changes.

The first change may be from the Minnesota Twins COVID outbreak. We already addressed this past weekend’s postponements. Twins are undergoing more testing in Anaheim, and they’re uncertain when they’ll be allowed to play again. There were no new positive cases on 4/17, so I kept their schedule intact for now. The Twins’ next scheduled game is 4/19 in Oakland. It seems possible they’ll remain shut down and have to postpone at least one game in the series, but time will tell. I will update you as soon as we hear anything. First update: 4/19 game is officially postponed to conduct more testing and contact tracing. The game has been tentatively rescheduled as part of a doubleheader on 4/20, with Game 1 scheduled for 3:30 p.m. PT. Second update: Twins are clear to travel, so GAMES ON!

Secondly, Nate Pearson is 100% and pain-free. He now needs to build up his pitch count before entering Toronto’s rotation. Should he do so by later this week when Toronto faces Tampa Bay, the Rays lefty/righty split will change to three apiece as he replaces spot starter, Tommy Milone.

A Few Areas to Target

Short End of the Stick for the Mile-High Club
The Rockies have a five-game week. That’s the bad news. The good? All five are at Coors Field. The park factors outweigh the game total (1.394 Runs, 1.266 Home Runs, 1.300 Hits – 2021).

Patriots’ Week in Beantown
Boston plays seven games this week, and they’re all at Fenway. This creates so much upside for their offense. The legendary ballpark has the ninth-highest park factor for runs this season, along with the 11^th most in hits. If that was enough to convince you to start your Red Sox, they will face at least four lefties.

Sho Time
Los Angeles Angels also have seven games this week, and they will all come against right-handed probable starters. Overall, the pitchers are a below-average lot, too. A red-hot Shohei Ohtani will eat this week at the plate, and fellow left-handed hitter Jared Walsh makes for a fine play this week. But will we see Ohtani on the bump? Check out my pitcher rankings to see!

Gabe’s Return to Philly
Manager Gabe Kapler returns to his old stomping grounds as the Giants play three at Citizens Bank Park. Will the 8,700+ allowed attendees greet Gabe with a warm cheer of embrace? No, they will not. However, San Fran misses staff ace Aaron Nola and is slated to face Chase Anderson, Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin. (Author’s Note: WTF couldn’t Wheeler and Eflin spell their first names the same way. It would have set up perfectly for ‘a meeting with the Zacks/Zachs’ lol.) Giants round out their seven-game week back at home vs. Miami. Overall, they will face six right-handed probable starters. Giants utilize platoons at numerous positions, and the left-handed hitters on the heavy side of those platoons get a short-term value boost.

WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. Orioles’ Mountcastle should sit for the two games. Leftfield will be manned either by hot-hitting DJ Stewart or a returning Austin Hays. The latter could be further delayed with the lack of lineup flexibility. Furthermore, the team as a whole gets a negative park shift (Marlins Park Factors: 1.087 R, 0.828 HR, 1.018 H).

Let’s face facts. Pablo Sandoval was born to be a DH. The switch-hitter will enjoy the short porch in right field of Yankee Stadium when he faces righties Jameson Taillon and Corey Kluber. Pirates/Tigers just feels like old-time baseball! In fact, the Pirates will enjoy a DH all week long, but can they take advantage of it? Cody Bellinger is on the IL (see Injured List Report below), and Zach McKinstry is filling in for him. So, who else is eligible for DH? Plenty, it’s LA. It should be Ríos?!? In either event, here are the park factors for T-Mobile Park: 0.952 R, 0.934 HR, 0.946 H.

I started a petition to expand the Astros/Rockies series to a six-game set, but then I remembered half the lineup is on the COVID-19 IL. Well, not half the lineup, but Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez will not make the trip to Denver as of this writing. No DH may be a blessing! The players impacted section above is more for deep-league streaming options, also including Abraham Toro. *UPDATE: Bregman and Alvarez cleared COVID protocols and traveled with the team to Denver. Both could play tonight as it appears they did not contract the virus. On the other hand, Altuve remains in quarantine and appears to have the virus. If that’s the case, Altuve likely won’t be available until the Astros’ weekend series with the Angels at the earliest. If you’re still able to, adjust your weekly lineups accordingly, but this is a blessing for daily league owners.

*Rivalry Series: None per se, but Braves/Yankees takes me back to 1996, wearing my headphones and listening to ‘A Tribe Called Quest’ … hmmm!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE

1. Lucas Giolito (@BOS, TEX)
2. Brandon Woodruff (@SD, @CHC)
3. Luis Castillo (ARI, @STL)
4. Jack Flaherty (@WSH, CIN)
5. José Berríos (@OAK, PIT)
6. Zac Gallen (@CIN, @ATL)
7. Dylan Bundy (TEX, HOU)
8. Dustin May (@SEA, SD)
9. Chris Paddack (MIL, @LAD)
10. Kevin Gausman (@PHI, MIA)
11. Joe Musgrove (MIL, @LAD)
12. Lance McCullers Jr. (@COL, LAA)
13. Zach Plesac (CHW, NYY)
14. Eduardo Rodriguez (TOR, SEA)
15. Jameson Taillon (ATL, @CLE)
16. Taijuan Walker (@CHC, WSH)

Other Options: Danny Duffy (TB, @DET), Jake Arrieta (NYM, MIL), Joe Ross (STL, @NYM), Nick Neidert (BAL, @SF)

We have a mixed bag of two-steppers this week but some excellent options. What drags some down is either the matchups are poor, or the pitchers have been scuffling. Dustin May stands out strong, facing a below-average Mariners lineup and San Diego, who he’s done well against in his career. Obviously, José Berríos swoops in for the money shot with starts in pitcher-friendly RingCentral (Oakland) Coliseum and against the Triple-A team otherwise known as the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite the 0.78 R and 0.63 HR 2020 park factors in Oakland, this sweet two-step seems like the kind Berríos likes to shank to the left, and the A’s O has been smoking! Maybe this year will be different, but you’re starting him. *Instead of two-starts, Twins gave Berrios five innings of a seven-inning game (opting to pitch Shoemaker instead on 4/25. Makes sense to me, FFS!

We missed out on a two-start week for Giolito in Week 3 due to postponements. However, we get it right back for Week 4, beginning with a Patriots Day battle in Beantown. 

Charlie Morton could have two starts this week (@NYY 4/20, ARI 4/25) depending on how Atlanta plays it and the health of Drew Smyly (see Injured List Report below). The 4/25 start could be Smyly if he only misses one turn through the rotation. Otherwise, Uncle Charlie could get the call. Arizona has been overachieving at the plate but beginning to come back down to earth. As for the ominous @NYY start, the Yankees have been struggling offensively like this author has never seen. They have been held to three or fewer runs in six of their last nine games. Furthermore, in nine starts (44.2 IP) since 2017, Morton carries a 3.48 ERA, 1.15 HR/9, .299 wOBA and 33.4% k-rate against the Bronx Bombers.

*UPDATE: Smyly will return 4/24 after missing just one start – I know you’re all excited – and with Bryse Wilson taking his next turn, filling in for injured Fried, Morton will go 4/26 for a two-start week next week.

For a detailed breakdown of more two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 19 – 25

*Rankings chart updated 4/19

*UPDATE: Manager Luis Rojas announced a slight change to his upcoming starting rotation. Jacob deGrom, who was scheduled to start in the series finale at Wrigley Field on 4/22, will now start 4/23 as the Mets return home to take on the Nationals. When your ace asks for an extra day, you give it to em. David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi will round out the series in Chicago.

Pitcher Spotlight: Corbin Burnes

Two years removed from a ghastly 8.82 ERA, Burnes has become one of the best pitchers in baseball. This ERA was not from a minute sample size, either. He threw 49 innings in 2019. Few pitchers get to stick around long enough after such a display, but if you watched Burnes pitch, you were in the know as to what the Brewers’ coaching staff knew. There were flashes of brilliance behind an extremely hittable fourseam fastball (2019 stats vs. pitch – .425 BA; .823 SLG; .533 wOBA, second-worst in pitch-tracking era). Particularly his slider, which had the best swing-and-miss rate of any slider that season. This author was especially stubborn by holding onto the pitcher who began the year in the rotation, only to soon find himself in middle relief till the end of the season.

I knew what I had in Burnes. After all, the late great Roy Halladay posted a 10.64 ERA in 2000 and went on to be an All-Star in 2002. So, how has Burnes done this? A change in his pitching arsenal. First, he needed to abandon the fourseamer. At a 95.2 mph average, Burnes throws it hard and with impressive spin, but it has very little movement and becomes extremely hittable as the stats above illustrate. In 2019, his fastball ranked 348^th out of 429 in terms of rise. So, maybe it had sink? Nope. Just a lot of balls middle-middle, which were often deposited in the seats. In place of the fourseam, Burnes started throwing a cutter along with more sinkers and sliders. Remember that swing-and-miss rate? Thus, he developed a much more “old-school mix,” and in 2020, he finished sixth in the NL Cy Young balloting. 

A fluke? Let’s examine Burnes by using everyone’s favorite analytical statistic. You know it; I know it. Everybody loves it… say it with me, ABA!

Note, the 2020/21 innings eclipse his 2019 total by almost 30. Now, the mark won’t stay under one. As Ray writes, “below 1.55 is elite-level performance.” But I care to wager, it will be closer to 2020’s mark than 2019 and fall under the category of elite. Why am I so confident? Burnes’ 30 K’s, no walks ‘says everything.’ After his most recent dominant start on 4/14 (6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K), sitting down the last 10 batters before his exit, “Burnes is the only pitcher since 1901 to string together three straight outings of at least six innings and two or fewer baserunners.” I said, God damn, God damn!

In case you need further proof Burnes is not a fluke, just look at where he sits in a few important metrics since the start of the 2020 season (min. 50 innings pitched, 102 pitchers). He is number one in ERA (1.87), number one in FIP (1.93), third-best in K% (38.4%) and tied for second-best in HR/9 (0.37). It’s this last metric that stands out the most, after posting a mark of 3.12 in 2019 when having trouble with his fourseamer and the long ball. But can he maintain his newfound success throughout the 2021 season and beyond? I believe he can and will because of a few things he’s doing even better this season.

Burnes is throwing the cutter more and faster. In 2020, he threw the pitch 32% of the time, averaging 93.1 mph. In 2021, the numbers are 49% and 95.8! I use an exclamation mark cause it’s the hardest cutter of the season and the third-hardest cutter ever tracked. He’s also getting more movement on the pitch (2020 – 10.1 inches of total movement, both vertical and horizontal; 2021 – 14.1 inches). He has used the pitch 85 times in this young season and allowed just one hit. The hit was a home run from Byron Buxton, but as shown above, he too is having a remarkable season. Furthermore, Burnes took an already filthy slider and made it filthier… more filthy? Whichever, the pitch has grown to 11 inches of total movement compared to 8.6 inches last year.

My last point as to why Burnes can maintain his success is the fact he’s challenging hitters more in 2021 with this new level of confidence. In 2020, he had the fourth-lowest rate of first-pitch strikes at just under 53%. That number has jumped waaaaaay north to 71% in 2021, 12^th highest in MLB. Some are beginning to call Burnes “Jacob deGrom-lite.” But if this level of domination continues, we may soon be calling him “Jacob deGrom equal.” Jacob’s first-pitch strike rate this season: 67.3%… a six-year high.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

What was originally thought of as a calf injury has now been shown to be a hairline fracture in Cody Bellinger’s left fibula! Belli’s rehab to get back on the field had stalled, which prompted further tests. With no clear timetable for a return, LA has opted to place him on the 10-day injured list. This is a big boost for those who swooped up Zach McKinstry, who will continue to see more playing time while the 25-year-old slugger is out. If you’re a Bellinger owner, hopefully, you have picked McKinstry up or can now (about 55% owned). 

Cristian Pache (groin) was placed on the 10-day IL mid-last week. “He had a little problem a couple days ago,” manager Brian Snitker said. “We let him sit. It was just grabbing [at] him. So, we’re gonna take care of it.” Pache will be out till at least 4/24 with no clear timetable for a return. Ender Inciarte will start in center for Atlanta in his stead and is worth an add in 12-5 team leagues.

Pache is just the tip of the iceberg for Atlanta. The team also lost pitchers Max Fried (right hamstring strain) and Drew Smyly (forearm inflammation) to the IL monster for 10 days. The latter injury isn’t considered serious and could only cost him one trip through the rotation. On the other hand, Fried may be out a touch longer after hurting himself running the bases. Hamstrings are tricky, plus the Bravos may be patient bringing him back after allowing a baker’s dozen of runs (12 earned) over his last two trips to the bump.

Christian Walker (right oblique strain) – Back on 4/12, Walker was placed on the 10-day IL with what was originally thought to be “normal aches and pains.” However, subsequent tests revealed much more. Asdrubal Cabrera slides over to first base, while Pavin Smith is a candidate for increased playing time in Walker’s absence.

Johnny Cueto (lat) should miss two starts from his Grade 1 lat strain. After being removed from his start on 4/14, he and the team were relieved the strain was of the minor variety as age creeps on the 35-year-old. I know what that’s like! Alex Wood has returned from his IL stint and will take Cueto’s spot in the rotation in the meantime.

Dinelson Lamet (elbow) has his pitch count up to 70-75 as he ramps up for his first start of the season. He throws a bullpen session this weekend to make sure everything checks out. As long as it does, I expect him to start vs. the Brewers on 4/21. *UPDATE: His elbow checked out fine in BP session. Padres manager Jayce Tingler confirmed Lamet would be activated from the 10-day injured list to start 4/21 against the Brewers, Daniel Guerrero of MLB.com reports.

Also soon to be returning to the rubber is Spencer Turnbull, who has been out since the start of the season due to COVID-19 protocols. Manager A.J. Hinch went as far as to say he could return during the team’s upcoming series against the Pirates. FWIW, Turnbull has oscillated from turnstile to dependable streamer. But if he takes the open start on 4/20, I’m interested in his fresh arm. Otherwise, Michael Fulmer will get the call again after a fine start to get his first win in the majors since 2018. Whomever it is will see two starts: PIT, KC!

*UPDATE: Turnbull set to be activated for 4/21 start, leaving Fulmer for two-start week. Detroit manager A.J. Hinch said he will be piggybacked by Tarik Skubal in his first start of the season, with the latter handling the bulk of the innings. Hinch also indicated this is just to ease Turnbull in, and tandem starts will not be the norm. Instead, Detroit could opt for a six-man rotation.

Shohei Ohtani (blister on right middle finger) threw his third BP session of the week on 4/17. He is being reevaluated today, and manager Joe Maddon said Ohtani could start “as early as Tuesday against the Rangers.” Seems odd to start him on a day other than Sunday, but the Angels have been trying lots of new things with their two-way star. Either way, after missing this much time, he probably won’t go very deep in his next start. *UPDATE: Ohtani now listed as the Angels’ probable pitcher for 4/20’s game against the Rangers. However, Ohtani won’t bat.

Cincinnati was without Mike Moustakas for a third consecutive game on 4/18 vs. Cleveland. Moustakas has been dealing with a non-COVID-19-related illness.

Christian Yelich (back) sadly went to the 10-day IL on 4/17 since his back tightness never loosened from sitting this past week. It seems like he deals with this issue every year yet comes back strong. However, this needs to be monitored.

Gary Sánchez (hand contusion) was pulled from the Yankees’ game on 4/17 after a foul tip caught him on his throwing hand. Tisk, tisk… gotta keep that hand behind your back! X-rays were negative, and he is day-to-day. Kyle Higashioka was already expected to catch Gerrit Cole on 4/18, so we’ll see how soon Sánchez returns to the lineup. Manager Aaron Boone is hopeful the catcher will return for the series opener against Atlanta, which gives two days of rest. However, Higashioka still makes for a sneaky speculative add this weekend.

This Just In: Stephen Strasburg (right shoulder inflammation) is being placed on the 10-day IL with no timetable for a return. Cross him off from #23 in rankings above and see how the Nationals handle their pitching rotation. Now we know why he was rubbing between his neck and right shoulder after his most recent outing against St. Louis.

“We talked to him after the game — he said he felt fine,” Martinez said. “He went through his regular routine this whole week. After his bullpen, which he threw well, he said he didn’t feel right. So that was an indication that we needed to get him checked out.”

Furthermore, what we know as of the moment is Paolo Espino took his slot on 4/18, which probably sets up for a short outing or BP game. Austin Voth will most likely take the role, but he couldn’t pitch on 4/18 due to pitching on back-to-back days this past week. Expect Voth to pitch @NYM on 4/24 in place of Stras.

*UPDATE: You can also scratch off Lance Lynn from the rankings (#15). He hits the IL with a strained right trapezius.

*UPDATE: Ronald Acuna strained his abdomen on Sunday Night Baseball on a hard slide back to first on a pickoff attempt. He has traveled with the team to New York for Yankees two-game set and is undergoing tests. No word if an IL stint is warranted, but with only five games this week for Atlanta, he becomes a risky start in weekly leagues.

POV SPECIAL – TOP SP STREAM OF THE WEEK

→ Joe Ross, RHP WSH (STL, @NYM – 30-35% owned) – Ross has looked especially sharp on the young season, firing 11 scoreless innings. He is missing bats at a nice rate. His K-rate lies at 22.5%, the Whiff percentage is at 20%, and his CSW is 31.40%. The contact suppression skills are still there, but he will need to increase the Whiff% to maintain this success. Nevertheless, I’m willing to take a shot on Ross while he’s going well.

The first start worries me some since he just faced this Cardinal team, and the Red Birds are tied for fifth in MLB with 71 runs scored. But upon a deeper dive, their team OPS ranks 20^th (.685) even with Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and company. As for my Mets, they have been struggling to score runs during their ‘on-again, off-again’ season. Furthermore, Ross has had success against the Mets in New York, posting a .125 BAA in 2019. However, that is like eons ago in baseball terms, and the Mets have lots of new pieces in the lineup.

We’ve been running pretty well with Pov Special this season, and this one could blow up in my face. However, nothing ventured, nothing gained.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, April 25, 2021

STOLEN BASE TARGETS

If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!

So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY! Promo code Red10 gets you 10% off ANY Elite Sports Package, including VIP.