In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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Welcome to the 2023 MLB Season!
We are the few, we are the proud. We are fantasy baseball managers! I mean no disrespect to our brave men and women of the Marines with this comparison. Without their service, we fat slobs could not enjoy the freedoms we have today. And in these times, freedom is not free.
Although, fantasy baseball is indeed a grind of the mind. Who will be diligent enough to maintain a steadfast pace throughout 162? That is always the question year after year. We have had our fair share of “extracurricular activities” in the past few seasons, creating further hurdles to attain our prize. None of you made them an excuse. Do me a solid? If you won your league (or multiple leagues) last season, raise your arm. Are you doing it? Great, that’s a fair amount of raised arms out there! Keep them raised. Now, if you finished second or third in your league, raise your arm on up too. Shoot, some of you in the back are gonna have to stand on your chair, so I can see! Ok, I can’t really “see” you right now, but then again, I can. Just look at these testimonials!
We aren’t free of challenges for the 2023 season. MLB is instituting new rules to improve pace of play, action and safety. If you have been watching Spring Training games, you are already familiar with the limitations on shifting and disengagements, pitch clock and bigger bases. If not, I broke down the new rules and their potential effect on your fantasy baseball players. Still, these are mere educated theories – based on minor-league experimentation, small sample sizes and Statcast projective data – until the games start counting. Additionally, we have a new balanced schedule, creating many more novel matchups to analyze. And if you remember, the new CBA limits minor-league options to five per season, which benefits playing statuses of younger players. Furthermore, the ghost-runner rule (aka “Manfred Man”) for extra innings is now a permanent fixture for all regular-season games. We will need to be versatile, catching all of the edges.
One angle to the new balanced schedule is a hopeful one I’ve yet to examine. Beginning in 2023, teams will play five fewer games against division opponents (14, seven home/seven away), instead playing one series against every team in the other league. Clubs will continue to play their Interleague “rival” four times, twice at each ballpark. Divisional games will total 56. The other ten teams in their respective league will be opposed six times apiece (60 games), playing a three-game set at each ballpark. Also, rather than 16 Interleague games, teams will play 46 such games – four against their rival and three each against the other 14 teams, alternating ballparks annually.
All I hear for fantasy is this: teams will face each other less. While fewer matchups will give us less data to go by, there is a higher hidden benefit.
Have you ever had a Sunday game washed away due to rain that would have given you the head-to-head victory? Better yet, did a PPD throw a monkey wrench in your monthly pitching plans? That should happen fewer times this year. MLB will do everything in its power to either get the game in that day or make up the game in question while the two teams are in town. Could the game be made up during a mutual day off later in the season? Sure, but it will be more challenging now for the schedule makers. Also, with the new rules making games shorter, getting games in that day will be more feasible. If I’m correct, and I believe I am, this will make our lives a crap-ton easier. Yes, crap-ton; it’s a scientific term.
I began this introduction with the word proud. I am so proud of this subscriber base, and after reading the influx of activity in our Discord from new subscribers and long-timers alike, the good times will continue to roll here at Fantasy Guru! My pledge is to give my best every day to provide the tools for victory. Alright, here we go. . .
As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover, drop a line in our 24/7 MLB Discord chat or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.
MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: Same as last season, we find 10 teams with a distinct advantage in the first scoring period. Below, I will list the teams with four games and which hitters have had hot springs from those teams. Even if you play in a league that uses the first 11 days as the first scoring period, these teams and players will still give you an edge!
A Few Areas to Target
If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!
- Chicago White Sox – 4 @HOU: Eloy Jiménez (14 G, 34 PA, .433/.500/.500 – not including WBC 11 AB: .455/.455/.545), Andrew Vaughn (12 G, 36 PA, .324/.361/.500, 1 HR) | Furthermore, Andrew Benintendi could stand to benefit, facing three of four right-hand SPs.
- Cleveland Guardians – 4 @SEA: José Ramírez (18 G, 56 PA, .340/.393/.520, 2 HR), Gabriel Arias (18 G, 45 PA, .333/.378/.405, 4 SB – With 1 LHP / 3 RHP projected starters, probably not the best week to send out short side of a platoon in your deeper league. Josh Naylor, on the other hand, is yummy), Naylor (19 G, 58 PA, .321/.379/.491, 2 HR, 10 RBI), Steven Kwan (18 G, 58 PA, .306/.414/.347, 2 SB, 8BB:7K – Benefits too from projected starters)
- Seattle Mariners – 4 v CLE: Julio Rodríguez (13 G, 39 PA, .444/.487/.750, 2 HR – not including WBC 18 AB: .278/.316/.333), Jarred Kelenic (19 G, 54 PA, .353/.389/.706, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB – With four RHP on the horizon, Kelenic can keep the good times rolling right into the season!), Eugenio Suárez (11 G, 32 PA, .333/.438/.667, 2 HR, 1 SB – not including WBC 14 AB: .500/.533/.714, 1 HR), Cal Raleigh (11 G, 33 PA, .290/.303/.581, 6 XBH, 1 HR – Switch hitter who will benefit from strong side of platoon), Sam Haggerty (13 G, 34 PA, .290/.353/.516, 4 XBH, 1 HR, 1 SB – SH who may not be used much due to handedness but still benefits)
- Houston Astros – 4 v CHW: Kyle Tucker (6 G, 20 PA, .421/.450/.474, 1 SB – not including WBC 15 AB: .333/.353/.733, 3 XBH, 1 HR, plus he stands to benefit from four righty SPs this weekend), Jeremy Peña (11 GP, 36 PA, .324/.361/.706, 6 XBH, 3 HR, 1 SB and one pie in the face for yours truly – although not including WBC 6 AB: .167/.375/.333, a double), José Abreu (17 G, 52 PA, .292/.327/.583, 10 XBH, 2 HR, 11 RBI), Justin Dirden (19 G, 40 PA, .324/.425/.618, 6 XBH, 2 HR, 1 SB – the 25-year-old rookie could stand to benefit from the opposition pitching schedule, as he has “impressed from day one in spring camp” according to Astros manager Dusty Baker, but he’s a dart throw at best for deeper leagues)
- Miami Marlins – 4 v NYM: A slow spring for many Marlin bats, but here are the best of the bunch. Luis Arraez (11 G, 33 PA, .258/.281/.258 – not including WBC 17 AB: .235/.316/.647, 2 HR, plus he stands to benefit from three of four right-handed starters), Garrett Cooper (17 G, 49 PA, .292/.306/.354, 1 HR), Jesús Sánchez (18 G, 45 PA, .302/.333/.419, 3 SB – also stands to benefit from scheduled starters, but will he get the PAs?)… and one of the coolest names in baseball, Víctor Víctor Mesa, which means diddly squat in fantasy baseball!
- New York Mets – 4 @MIA: Francisco Lindor (13 G, 42 PA, .316/.381/.605, 3 HR, 1 SB – not including WBC 20 AB: .450/.500/.550, 3B, 1 SB, 6 R), Starling Marte (12 G, 36 PA, .344/.361/.563, 1 HR, 2 SB), Pete Alonso (12 G, 40 PA, .294/.400/.647, 4 HR, 1 SB, 5BB:7K – not including a woeful effort at the WBC (14 AB): .143/.200/.143, 4 K), Tomás Nido (14 G, 40 PA, .359/.375/.667, 6 XBH, 3 HR), Omar Narváez (10 G, 28 PA, .304/.429/.435, 1 HR, 4BB:5K – not including his WBC one hit in 4 ABs; both backstops will see even playing time this weekend with the Mets seeing two pitchers from each side of the rubber)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 4 v ARI: Max Muncy (18 G, 53 PA, .295/.415/.591, 7 XBH, 3 HR, plus Muncy will see three of four right-handed starters even though his splits are fairly balanced), Will Smith (8 G, 23 PA, .318/.348/.409 – not including WBC 10 AB: .200/.333/.600, 1 HR), Freddie Freeman (14 G, 40 PA, .286/.350/.600, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 4BB:4K – although not including WBC 10 AB: .200/.273/.200, but he’ll get the same three righties), James Outman (22 G, 61 PA, .294/.393/.588, 8 XBH, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB – a lefty bench piece (Joey Gallo lite?) who could carve out a fair amount of playing time and is worth keeping an eye on, as he impressed big time this spring and benefits from shift limitations!)
- San Diego Padres – 4 v COL: Juan Soto (5 G, 15 PA, .571/.600/1.000, 1 HR, 1 SB – not including WBC 15 AB: .400/.500/1.000, 2 HR), Manny Machado (12 G, 34 PA, .303/.324/.455, 1 HR – not including WBC 17 AB: .235/.278/.647, 2 HR), Jake Cronenworth (18 G, 53 PA, .396/.453/.688, 9 XBH, 2 HR, 5BB:6K), Austin Nola (13 g, 39 PA, .333/.487/.467, 1 HR, 8BB:3K), David Dahl (22 G, 61 PA, .288/.311/.458, 7 XBH, 1 HR, 10 RBI – a non-roster invitee who has carved a spot in RF, although this might not be the best week to use him with San Diego facing two lefties and José Azocar lurking)
- Colorado Rockies – 4 @SDP: Ryan McMahon (20 G, 63 PA, .302/.393/.547, 7 XBH, 3 HR, 1 SB – plus, he faces three of four right-handed starters, which will limit Alan Trejo siphoning many ABs this weekend.), Kris Bryant (15 G, 44 PA, .297/.409/.676, 6 XBH, 4 HR), Yonathan Daza (20 G, 64 PA, .305/.344/.339, 5 SB), Elehuris Montero (22 G, 67 PA, .306/.358/.581, 7 XBH, 5 HR, 12 RBI), Ezequiel Tovar (19 G, 57 PA, .308/.368/.462, 2 HR, 0 SB (surprisingly – wrote about him here), Elias Díaz (13 G, 40 PA, .314/.400/.543, 2 HR)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 4 @LAD: Corbin Carroll (17 G, 58 PA, .370/.491/.630, 9 XBH, 5 SB, 11BB:8K – wrote about him here), Gabriel Moreno (10 G, 31 AB, .370/.452/.741, 3 HR, 3BB:4K), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (14 G, 44 PA, .308/.386/.487, 1 HR, 1 SB), Kyle Lewis (11 G, 34 PA, .429/.529/.857, 6 XBH, 3 HR, 11 RBI – earns a spot and a fresh start out in the desert; bench piece who could see action in the first series with two left-handed starters rolling)
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
2022 Statistics
*As of 10/5/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
None in this first short scoring period.
Other Options: N/A
Danger Zone: N/A
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR MARCH 30 – APRIL 2
These rankings are the best 90 scheduled starting pitchers for Opening Weekend. As you can see, quite a few familiar names are missing. Most of them will instead make their 2023 debut in the next scoring period for the NFBC (Monday, 4/3 – Sunday, 4/9). While others will require more time to be healthy and ready to go. In case you are in a league that has the first scoring period lock on Opening Day until 4/9, here is a breakdown for those MIA.
UPDATE: PHI opts to throw Taijuan Walker in their fourth game of the year to spilt their left-hand starters. Good idea (and one I should have foreseen) with the lefty-mashing Yankees looming in the Bronx. Meanwhile, across the state, PIT opts to throw Vince Velasquez in their third game @CIN. This relagtes Roansy Contreras to 4/3 @BOS and a potential two-start week next period. Also, Matt Manning with now pitch on 4/4 @HOU.
Next Week…
- Yu Darvish: Will make his first start in San Diego’s sixth game (ARI, 4/4)
- Charlie Morton: Likely makes his first start on 4/3 @STL (two-start week?)
- Nestor Cortes: Likely makes his first start in New York’s fourth game (PHI, 4/3)
- Brady Singer: Saw very little action in the WBC, so he will need time to ramp up; thus, he will likely make his first start next week (4/3 or 4/4 vs. TOR)
- Freddy Peralta: Likely makes his first start next week, 4/3 NYM
- Tyler Mahle: Will make his first start 4/3 @MIA
- José Berríos: Likely to make first start 4/3 @KCR
- Drew Rasmussen: Will make his first start 4/3 @WSH
- Carlos Carrasco: Will make his first start 4/3 @MIL
- Reid Detmers: Likely to make his first start 4/3 @SEA
- Hunter Brown: Likely to start 4/3 vs. DET; monitor health (lower-back tightness)
- Kyle Bradish: Will start 4/4 @TEX
- Hayden Wesneski: Likely to start 4/4 @CIN
- Domingo Germán: His first start is a bit vague. Yankees manager Aaron Boone has said that Jhony Brito, who will be a part of the rotation due to injuries to Frankie Montas, Carlos Rodón and Luis Severino, could start the Yankees’ third game. If so, Germán would slot into New York’s fifth game (PHI, 4/4). However, there remains the chance that Germán could take the third start (SF, 4/2). If he is a part of your starting rotation, my best advice is to have Germán in for this period JIC… We’ll discuss Brito a little later. UPDATE: Brito starts 4/2, which likely relegates Germán to 4/4.
- Jon Gray: Will make his first start 4/3 vs. BAL
- Michael Kopech: Will make his first start 4/3 vs. SF
- Andrew Heaney: Expected to start in Texas’ fifth game (BAL, 4/4)
- Kenta Maeda: Will start 4/4 @MIA
- Nick Pivetta: Will make his first start next week, 4/4 vs. PIT
- Ross Stripling: Should make his first start next week, 4/3 @CHW. But there is a chance he starts 4/2 @NYY (so same deal as Germán). UPDATE: Stripling will start on 4/2 with Sean Manaea scheduled for 4/3.
Injured Pitchers…
- Joe Musgrove: Will begin the season on the injured list but is targeting a return on 4/11 @NYM or 4/16 vs. MIL
- Luis Severino: A low-grade lat strain will result in Severino hitting the IL to open the season. However, he could miss as few as three or four starts.
- Tyler Glasnow: Out for a couple of months with an oblique injury to begin the year
- Kyle Wright: Will begin the year on the 15-day IL (shoulder) so that he can build up due to late spring. He’s likely to miss only two turns through the rotation. As a result, both Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd are in Atlanta’s rotation, and the best one will remain.
- Carlos Rodón: He will throw 2-3 more bullpen sessions before LIVE BP. At that point, he will be a month away from a return.
- Garrett Whitlock: Will open the year on the IL, but he’s already throwing minor-league games (3/24 – 63 pitches, 4 IP; sch. to start Triple-A opener 3/30).
- Tony Gonsolin: Tony G. has a sprained left ankle and will begin the year on IL. He could miss most, if not all, of April. He threw a bullpen session on 3/24. Ryan Pepiot subs in the fifth spot.
- Ranger Suárez: Likely slated for the IL because he’s not ready for the start of the season due to left forearm inflammation. He could be back as early as 4/14 but is not throwing yet as of 3/26.
- Adam Wainwright: Will begin the season on the IL due to a groin strain. He is expected to be sidelined for “several weeks.” Jake Woodford is likely to take his spot and is an interesting streamer for deeper leagues. Woodford doesn’t miss bats – at all – but he doesn’t miss the strike zone very often either with low walk rates. He also induces weak contact and gets ground balls.
- Lance McCullers Jr.: “It’s déjà vu all over again.” McCullers’ season is once again delayed due to a problematic forearm strain, and he will begin the season on the IL. He’s a safe bet to miss at least the first month or so of the season. (See Brown, Hunter)
- Tarik Skubal: 60-day IL, recovery from left flexor tendon surgery; expected to miss at least the season’s first couple of months.
- Aaron Ashby: He has a slight labral tear and impingement in his shoulder and will open the season on the IL, but he could be an option for Milwaukee by mid-May.
- Frankie Montas: Right shoulder surgery 2/21; 12-week shutdown from throwing. His season debut could come before or after the All-Star break in a best-case scenario.
- José Quintana: IL, rib cage stress fracture will keep him sidelined until at least July
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
This just in…
Mets pitcher Justin Verlander heads to the injured list with a low-grade teres major strain. He’ll be re-evaluated in a week. The 40-year-old, who signed a two-year, $86.6M contract, will not be pitching any time soon and could miss most of April (see McKenzie below). In the meantime, Tylor Megill will take his place in the rotation.
Triston McKenzie, Guardians – 15-day IL Bound, Shoulder Strain (Retro 3/27)
One day after exiting his start against Cincinnati in Cleveland’s Spring Training finale, an MRI revealed that McKenzie suffered a strain of his right teres major muscle in his shoulder. He’ll be shut down from throwing for two weeks. Additionally, he could remain sidelined for up to eight weeks, depending on the injury response and further evaluation. Brutal! McKenzie noticed some general soreness while warming up but thought nothing of it. After the first inning, the soreness returned, and he notified the pitching coach immediately. Kind of a worst-case scenario, but we have had our trepidations with the 6′ 5″ / 165-pound pitcher. This is why starting pitchers should just get their work in on the B-fields or in the pen, Oy vey!
Zach Plesac could fill the vacancy left in Cleveland’s second game. However, the team’s plan for him is to stay behind and pitch a minor-league game on 3/29 to prepare for his normally scheduled start on 4/3 @OAK. A more likely scenario is going with Hunter Gaddis, who made the team as a reliever. Gaddis, normally a starter, pitched 4.1 innings and threw 70 pitches on 3/25 in a minor-league game. This leaves him with five days’ rest for 3/31 @SEA. However, the team could recall Xzavion Curry or left-hander Konnor Pilkington, who both started for the Guardians last year in their big-league debuts.
Seiya Suzuki, Cubs – 15-day IL Bound, Oblique Strain
Suzuki, who is working his way back from a moderate strain of his left oblique, was scheduled to play three innings on defense in a Minor League game on 3/27. The goal is to have him begin accumulating at-bats by the weekend, according to Cubs manager David Ross. Suzuki is expected to begin this season on the injured list for the Cubs but could be back some time in April.
Wander Franco, Rays – DTD, Right Quad Soreness
A day after Rays manager Kevin Cash said he was “pretty optimistic” that Franco will be good to go on Opening Day, the star shortstop took it a step further. “I feel good, thank God,” Franco told reporters through interpreter Manny Navarro, “and I’m ready to start on Thursday.”
Hunter Brown, Astros – DTD, Lower-Back Tightness
More on Brown… He threw 25 pitches in the bullpen on 3/27 with no issues. Brown will throw a simulated game in the coming days and then could be slotted into the back end of the Astros rotation to start the season.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins – DTD, Right Arm Cramp
After missing the final two Spring Training games, Chisholm returned to smack a double during the 3/27 scrimmage at loanDepot park. “Dehydration causes injuries, and so at this point of the camp, I’m not going to run him out there and risk it,” Marlins’ new manager Skip Schumaker said.
Yoán Moncada, White Sox – DTD, Lower-Back Stiffness
Moncada left the Pale Hose’s Spring Training finale after just two innings. The good news is he was smiling and gave a thumbs-up when asked how he was doing in the clubhouse. “[I] feel good,” he said. “Not bad.”
Joey Votto, Reds – 15-day IL Bound, Shoulder Surgery recovery
Votto will start the season on the IL as he works his way back from shoulder surgery. He will start his rehab on 3/31 with Triple-A Louisville and said he’ll join the Reds when he feels ready.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Jared Shuster84, LH ATL (@WSH; 22% owned in Yahoo, 5% in ESPN, 57% in Fantrax dynasty) – I don’t recommend doing much streaming this Opening Weekend. You read our Draft Guide and selected your guys for a reason. However, if many of your arms don’t pitch till next week and your scoring period ends on 4/2, Shuster would make for a good Sunday security blanket.
He was selected by Atlanta in the first round of the 2020 MLB Draft. He owned a 1.41 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and a 35:5 K:BB across 32 innings in the Cape Cod League. His finest performance came for Double-A Mississippi in 2022, where he posted 2.78 (3.12 FIP), a 10.52 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, and 0.79 HR/9 in 90.2 IP. When making contact, batters ground out at a 45+% clip. Shuster also has 48.2 Triple-A innings but was less dominant in his first taste at that level. So, there is risk here. However, the Nationals are like a Double-A team and will often be preyed upon this season… mwahaha!
Honorable Mention: Jhony BritoNR, RH NYY (SF; 6% owned in Yahoo, 1% in ESPN, 17% in Fantrax dynasty) – This recommendation is predicated upon how the Yankees’ staff takes shape. Manager Aaron Boone has said that Brito could start the Yankees’ third game on 4/2. However, there remains the chance that Domingo Germán could make the start, relegating Brito to 4/4 vs. PHI (a far less sexy start). But even if the latter comes to fruition, Brito does make for a sexy stash. He dazzled in his final outing of the spring, retiring all 16 batters and striking out three while lowering his spring ERA to 2.08. UPDATE: Brito will make his first MLB start in Sunday’s series finale with the Giants at Yankee Stadium, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com!
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!