MLB Weekly Preview: 5/15 – 5/21

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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Before we begin, I’d like to take this space to wish all the wonderful and hard-working moms out there a Happy Mother’s Day. I sincerely hope this doesn’t come off as sexist in any way, shape or form, but I’ve been taken aback by the amount of female fantasy baseball players I’ve seen in our Discord chat and following us on Twitter, @FantasyGuruSite. It’s a fantastic sign of how the sport is growing overall. Fanfare is up tremendously after the first month and a half of the season, and it’s no coincidence that this rise comes in conjunction with baseball’s new rules. In general, more people are willing to stop what they’re doing to watch a two-and-a-half-hour game versus the four-hour marathons of the past. Also, interest is rising again in fantasy baseball, a game that – let’s be honest – was dying. 

And we can thank our knowledgeable female diehards for the resurrection.

My mom never fit that category. She wouldn’t know the difference between a sacrifice fly or a hit-and-run (seeing more of them, too, with the new rules!). But that never mattered to her. She was in love with the game because I was in love with the game. I can’t tell you the number of times she left work early to pick me up from baseball practice. She came out to support my squad and me whenever possible, often packing the Gatorade and treats. She was my biggest fan and always wanted this life for me. 

Sadly, we lost my mother, Donna, in 2011. I can’t even begin to wrap my head around how it’s been 12 years since she passed away. By the grace of God, my 94-year-old nana is still with us and as fiery as any Italian woman you’ve ever met! She is my “Betty White” and helped me so much with easing the pain and grief. I believe in my soul that Mom can still see what has become of my life. I only hope she is proud. As fortune would have it, I found my soulmate late last year, and I will be meeting her mom this Mother’s Day. Wish me luck! I’ll never attempt to replace my mom, but I’m eager to accept more feminine energy into my life. 

My heartfelt message here does have a summation. Let’s take care of and appreciate the women in our lives – your mom, grandmom, wife, girlfriend, sister, etc. – and never take them for granted. Even if that means you do the dishes Sunday evening while she sets up her FAAB run. Let’s get it!

As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover, drop a line in our 24/7 MLB Discord chat or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: COL shifts to 3 L / 3 R (no opener) due to a rotational change by TEX (see more below) and CIN calling up Brandon Williamson.

NOTES: Only eight teams play seven games this week, so our hitter edges are slightly more opaque. To make matters murkier, eight situations will involve either an opener or a straight bullpen game. Luckily, I have 20/20 vision and a strong cognizance of the schedule. Most teams play six games, with only the Tigers and Pirates drawing the short end of the stick thanks to their two-game Interleague series… is that even a thing anymore? Are there even leagues?? I digress.

Five-Game Weeks: DET (PIT – 2, @WSH – 3), PIT (@DET – 2, ARI – 3)

A Few Areas to Target

If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

Red Hot Red Stockings
It’s no secret that the offense in Cincinnati (@COL – 3, NYY – 3) has been humming of late. Far from the levels of the Great Red Machine, yet the club is tied for eighth in home runs, second in ISO, fourth in wOBA and eighth in wRC+ over the last week. The surprise here is the pitching should be the strength of this club. However, their staff is allowing 5.3 runs per game and a .274 batting average against, second-worst in the league. So the offense has had little choice but to perform if they hope to win ball games. All of these trends should not only continue but intensify this week. The Reds play in two of the top hitters’ havens in MLB – Coors Field and Great American Small Park – which are currently Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in Statcast’s Overall Park Factors (see below).

But wait, there’s more!

The pitching matchups for Cincinnati are more gorgeous than backpacking through the foothills of Mount Tibidabo and seeing a beautiful woman bathing herself in a secluded lake. The Reds will face Connor Seabold, Chase Anderson (not official), Austin Gomber (although he has been pitching well of late), Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito and Domingo Germán (1 L / 5 R). YUMMY! Or at least, that’s what Jake Fraley is thinking (13% rostered in Yahoo, 2% in ESPN, 48% in Fantrax Dynasty). His roster percentage is just plain shameful. The dude has 10 XBH, including three home runs in the past two days and five on the season. Don’t know about you, but I’d gladly take a .269/.364/.462 slash line from a streaming target/bench piece. Since 5/2, Fraley has had hits in six of seven games he has started, including four multi-hit affairs and a four-game hitting streak. 

You Stay Healthy, San Diego
The Friars (KCR – 3, BOS – 3) are beginning to hit their stride after a slow start to the season. No coincidence their flight has heightened with the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. atop the lineup. Finally, Manny Machado and Juan Soto are hitting the way we drafted them to be, and the entire offense is scoring at will. I expect the good times to roll this week as they welcome Kansas City and Boston. Petco Park is known to favor the pitcher, but this year, it is playing up to the hitters (16^th in Statcast’s Overall Park Factors). The 110 HR Park Factor is especially eye-catching. Why this turnaround? The answer is simple: this loaded, expensive lineup is finally whole. Tatis – Jake Cronenworth – Machado – Soto – Xander Bogaerts all compromise a fearsome 1-5. No wonder the hitting numbers are up, including 69 extra-base hits at home. 

In terms of the opponents, on the road, the Royals have the sixth-worst team ERA (5.04) and a .252 batting average against. Can a potentially returning Daniel Lynch (5/17) improve this metric? Doubtful with his career 4.50 road ERA (110 IP). Boston could be trickier with their potent lineup and geriatric three (James Paxton, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber), who have all pitched well of late, especially Paxton in his first start since 2021 and seventh in the past four years (5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 9 K). However, their staff’s road ERA is 4.94, the BAA is .272, and the left on-base percentage (LOB%) is 67.9%. The fireworks should fly in this series!

If you are looking to get a piece of this lineup or add on to the behemoths above (especially Machado, who is hitting .333 with two doubles, four home runs, 10 runs scored and 11 RBI in his last 10 games as well as .276 at home), may I interest you in Ha-Seong Kim (16% rostered in Yahoo, 10% in ESPN, 63% in Fantrax Dynasty)? Last season, Kim went under the radar with his .251 BA, 29 doubles and 12 stolen bases. Nothing to get overly excited about, and the BA is down so far in 2023. However, his counting stats have been spiking with five doubles, three home runs, and six stolen bases in just 34 games. Riding a hot stretch over the past 14, where he’s hitting .273 with two multi-hit games, Kim sets up for success this week.

Quick Hitters…

• NYY (@TOR – 4, @CIN – 3) will face seven right-hand starters!
• LAD (MIN – 3, @STL – 4) lines up for two southpaws and five right-handers.
• TOR (NYY – 4, BAL – 3) has a homestand where they are Top-10 in average, wOBA and wRC+. They will see six right-hand starters out of the seven games.
• CLE (@CHW – 3, @NYM – 3): Big week incoming for Andrés Giménez, who will face six right-hand starters and broke out of a vicious slump with a 3-for-4 day on 5/12 and a long fly the following night. 
• LAA (@BAL – 4, MIN – 3): The great dilemma will be how to play Shohei Ohtani (seven righty opponents vs. two-start week). My lean is as a pitcher, depending on your league settings. Either way, you will benefit, so don’t let it keep you up at night. Mickey Moniak (<1% rostered in Yahoo, <1% in ESPN, 7% in Fantrax Dynasty), who was called up on 5/12 and went 3-for-4 with a solo home run and two steals in his 2023 debut, could benefit from the starting pitchers’ handedness with at-bat opportunities. 
• HOU (CHC – 3, OAK – 3): A get-right week for the ‘Stros? They’ll face four southpaws to only two righties in an unusual twist of fate. Just what the doctor ordered for Alex Bregman and José Abreu.
• STL (MIL – 3, LAD – 4) plays a homestand this week at good ole Busch Stadium, which has been favoring the hitters this season (t-3^rd with a 110 Statcast Overall Park Factor, see more below). That’s a lot of red, Uncle Ed! Although, there is no real split advantage due to handedness (3 L / 4 R), and the pitching matchups are fairly challenging, so some warts come with Cardinal bats. 

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
Turn towards our Nation’s Capital. Take note. There is a theme this week with Washington (NYM – 1, @MIA – 3, DET – 3). The club’s young, aggressive hitters are right near the league leaders in swing rate (48.9%, second-highest) and first-pitch rate (33.3%, third-highest). However, they have hit too many balls on the ground (48.3% GB rate, highest). They are recognizing this trend and have been doing a better job at lifting the ball in the air by focusing on launch angle. In total, the Nats will face four left-hand starters versus three righties, and they are a motley crew indeed. 

• David Peterson (57.3% first-pitch strike rate; 58.1% is league average)
• Jesús Luzardo (57.9%)
• Edward Cabrera (52.4%)
• Eury Pérez (not enough data)
• Matthew Boyd (66.4%)
• Alex Faedo (73.2%)
• Joey Wentz (66.0%)

The opposing pitchers have a high first-pitch strike rate, especially as we get to Detroit. And thanks to the wrap-around series with New York, the Washington batters gain seven games this week. I am especially interested in Lane Thomas (18% rostered in Yahoo, 6% in ESPN, 64% in Fantrax Dynasty) and Joey Meneses (52% Yahoo, 19% ESPN, 74% Fantrax), but don’t forget about a surging CJ Abrams (22% Yahoo, 11% ESPN, 79% Fantrax).

Places to Avoid

Despite rattling off many favorable matchups for this week, there are situations we should avoid. The Seattle Mariners (@BOS – 3, @ATL – 3) have a road trip this week; the kind of trip that would make Clark Griswold look like a travel advisor. And let’s face facts. This is not the same offense we witnessed in 2022. 

To begin the week, the Sox welcome the Ms to Fenway, where their pitchers strike out nine batters per nine innings. This is not ideal for a Seattle club that has struck out 25.9% of the time to lead major league baseball. Furthermore, they have a road batting average of .224 and scored the eighth-fewest runs on the road with just 80. Things will not get better when they travel to Atlanta to take on the Braves. Despite their rotation being a walking M*A*S*H unit, they still have arms like Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder waiting for Seattle. Overall at Truist Park, the Bravos staff has a 4.27 ERA and the second-highest strikeout rate in the league at 27.8%.

When it comes to specific hitters to avoid, I’d say it’s time for Teoscar Hernández to ride your fantasy bench if he’s not there already! According to Mariners manager Scott Servais, Hernández is not taking competitive at-bats. Over his last 14 games, Teoscar Hernandez is batting .167/.224/.259 while running a K-rate close to 47%, a chase rate of 40% (12^th percentile on the season) and a whiff rate of 45.5% (sixth percentile). The quality of contact has been good with a 14.3% barrel rate and 46.2% hard-hit rate, but it’s just not happening enough. Another hitter to avoid is Eugenio Suárez, who has a measly three home runs in 169 PA on the year. If he’s not hitting for power (.095 ISO), his fantasy appeal is minuscule. When coupling with a 28.4% K rate and .218 BA, it’s easy to see why he’s a must-sit.

Also Avoid…

• MIN (@LAD – 3, @LAA – 3) embark on their California trip, where they’ll face such pitchers as Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Shohei Ohtani and Patrick Sandoval. Does it matter who’s on the bump when you are the worst-hitting team on the road in baseball? The Twinkies have a team road BA of just .198 (last), an OPS of .634 (second to last, DET), and have scored only 77 runs (76 wRC+). It will be hard to turn those metrics around this week with the Dodgers’ 2.94 ERA and .224 BAA at home. Players to avoid (or at least lower expectations): Bryone Buxton, Joey Gallo.

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 5/13/23; Statcast data via Baseball Savant

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Shohei Ohtani¹ (@BAL, MIN)
2. Kevin Gausman⁷ (NYY, BAL)
3. Framber Valdez⁹ (CHC, OAK)
4. Shane Bieber¹⁰ (@CHW, @NYM)
5. George Kirby¹⁹ (@BOS, @ATL)
6. Pablo López²¹ (@LAD, @LAA)
7. Justin Verlander²² (TBR, CLE)
8. Alek Manoah²⁴ (NYY, BAL)
9. Clayton Kershaw²⁷ (MIN, @STL)*
10. Freddy Peralta³⁰ (@STL, @TBR)
11. Jesús Luzardo³² (WSH, @SFG)
12. Charlie Morton³³ (@TEX, SEA) ⬅️ Jared Shuster will pick up the Sunday start instead on normal rest with Morton sliding to 5/22 vs. LAD. I get it – better opponent and keep remaining reg starters healthy – but c’mon!
13. Hunter Greene³⁴ (@COL, NYY)
14. Justin Steele³⁷ (@HOU, @PHI)
15. Lance Lynn⁴² (CLE, KCR)
16. Jordan Montgomery⁴³ (MIL, LAD) ⬅️ Matthew Liberatore will come up from Triple-A and make the start on 5/17 to give rest of rotation an extra days rest during busy schedule. Monty loses his second start this week, and Adam Wainwright shifts to face LAD.
17. Merrill Kelly⁵⁵ (@OAK, @PIT)
18. Josiah Gray⁵⁹ (@MIA, DET) ⬅️ POV SPECIAL

Other Options: Jack Flaherty⁶¹ (MIL, LAD), Domingo Germán⁶⁴ (@TOR, @CIN), Grayson Rodriguez⁷⁰ (LAA, @TOR), Jameson Taillon⁷² (@HOU, @PHI)*, Michael Wacha⁸⁶ (KCR, BOS) POV SPECIAL

*Taillon is risky business until we see at least five innings/80 pitches due to returning from the IL without rehab starts. The matchups don’t help. Also, Kyle Hendricks is nearing a return and will be available to pitch on 5/19 make at least one more rehab start after making his fourth appearance on 5/14. Hendricks’ impending return bumps Hayden Wesneski to Triple-A after his latest poor start. As a result, Steele may earn a second start this week! Update: Germán begins a ten-game suspension from his ejection on 5/16 due to foreign substances. As a result, Luis Severino will make his first start of the season on 5/21 @CIN.

Danger Zone: Noah Syndergaard¹¹⁰ (MIN, @STL)*, Alex Wood¹¹² (PHI, MIA), Dean Kremer¹²⁷ (LAA, @TOR), Patrick Corbin^NR (NYM, DET) POV SPECIAL, Brad Keller^IL (@SDP, @CHW), Jhony Brito^NR (@TOR, @CIN)*, Connor Seabold^NR (CIN, @TEX)*, Yonny Chirinos^AAA (@NYM, MIL)*, Bailey Falter^AAA (@SFG, CHC) Maybe Wheeler picks up a second start? No, it will be Taijuan Walker on three days rest since he only threw 40 pitches in .2 IP on 5/17 due to futility. Bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off!

*Syndergaard is DTD with a cut on his right index finger at the time of this writing, so we will need to monitor his health status after his weekend bullpen session. If he were to miss, or if LAD wants to give him, Kershaw and rest of the rotation an extra day during a busy stretch, Gavin Stone could be recalled, or young fireballer Bobby Miller could have his contract selected. Both two-starts are thus precarious, but Kershaw should still be started, while Thor should not be. For Seabold, Noah Davis is eligible to return for the IL on 5/15, but there is no word as of this writing. Either arm is merely a dart throw in the deepest of leagues.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR MAY 15 – 21

UPDATE

*According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays will likely call up either top prospect Taj Bradley⁷⁰ or Cooper Criswell^NR to start 5/18 and take Drew Rasmussen’s place in their rotation (for more, see IL report). Also, Corbin Burnes has pitched on at least five days of rest all season. His last gap was six days. He currently lines up to face the Cardinals in St. Louis on four days of rest, a divisional contest in a time where they are fewer in number. However, if MIL wants to maintain at least five days of rest, he could move to Tampa on 5/19, which would again provide six days of respite. Being a bit overboard, I feel the intention is to have Burnes pitch on 5/17, coming off the extra rest.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Drew Rasmussen, Rays – 60-day IL, Flexor Strain

After throwing seven scoreless innings against the Yankees in his best game of the year (and possibly his tenure as a Tampa Bay Ray), Ras is the latest victim of the Tampa Bay SP curse. Don’t believe me? Just hit up our Discord MLB Seasonal chat for the mountains of evidence Ray Flowers provides! A real shame, as Rasmussen has gone 4-2 with a 2.62 ERA over eight starts this season, striking out 47 and walking 11 over 44.2 IP. He’s had his best marks in barrel rate (4.2%), hard-hit rate (32.2%) and average exit velocity (87.3 mph). However, in the seventh and final inning, his velo was done, and he felt “nerve sensitivity” in the forearm. He now hits the shelf for at least 60 days with a flexor strain in his right elbow. 

The hope is Ras will avoid his third Tommy John surgery with rest and rehab and will be back after the All-Star break.  

Jazz Chisholm, Marlins – DTD, Foot Contusion

Chisholm left his game against the Reds on 5/13 in the eighth inning after colliding with the wall, going after a fly ball. The Marlins announced postgame that Chisholm sustained a right foot contusion, but the good news is X-rays came back clean. However, he was once again out of the lineup on 5/14, but with the upcoming off-day on 5/15, I’m sure Miami wants to give him max time to heal. Continue to monitor!

UPDATE

Nick Lodolo, Reds – DTD/15-day IL Stint Likely, Left Calf/Ankle Soreness

After being bumped from his scheduled start on 5/11 to the weekend, Lodolo was again scratched on 5/13 against the Marlins and has returned to Cincinnati for examination. The malady has reportedly been bothering the 25-year-old lefty since Spring Training, which would explain his inflated 6.29 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The best thing to do would be to place him on the IL now and get him right. Levi Stoudt was summoned from Triple-A Louisville and pitched in bulk (3 IP, 53 PIT) behind opener Derek Law on 5/13 since he was a late scratch for Louisville and had to rush to Miami. 

UPDATE

Max Kepler, Twins – 10-day IL, Left Hamstring Strain

Kepler was placed on the 10-day IL on 5/13. He suffered the injury during the team’s game versus the Padres two days earlier. Trevor Larnach was recalled from Triple-A St. Paul in a corresponding move. 

Nico Hoerner, Cubs – 10-day IL, Left Hamstring Strain (Retro 5/9)

Hoerner came up lame while running from first to third during his game against the Cardinals on 5/8 and has been out of the lineup ever since. After debating their next move and seeing if Hoerner could work past the injury, the Cubs decide to play it safe and take care of the ailment. According to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, the 26-year-old second baseman is already participating in on-field drills. His absence should be short-term, and Christopher Morel (62% rostered in Yahoo, 12% in ESPN, 77% in Fantrax Dynasty) will fill in at the keystone.

Medical Updates…

• Liam Hendriks, White Sox: Hendriks should make two more appearances for Triple-A Charlotte before being re-evaluated. He could return as early as next week, during the White Sox’s current homestand!
• Luis Severino, Yankees: Severino began his rehab assignment on 5/10 (3.1 IP, 49 PIT/29 STK, 1 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K) and is expected to pitch his next rehab on 5/16 for Double-A Somerset. If all goes well, he could be activated after that outing (estimated return 5/21-27). Update: Will make first start of the season on 5/21 @CIN (for SSP Germán).
• Yu Darvish, Padres: Darvish left his last start prematurely due to right triceps tightness. He was through six innings and 80 pitches, so the hook seems more preventative than anything. After the game, Darvish said he’s dealt with this tightness in the past and said “It’s no concern for me at all.” Where have we heard that before, but for now, he appears fine and set to make his next start, which is penciled in for 5/17 vs. KCR.
• Triston McKenzie, Guardians: McKenzie (right teres major strain) threw a bullpen session on 5/11 that went well. He’s expected to throw again in Arizona before he leaves to attend his brother’s graduation on 5/16, according to Guardians manager Terry Francona. Afterward, McKenzie will stop back in Cleveland before getting sent out on a rehab assignment.
• Garrett Whitlock, Red Sox: Whitlock will begin his rehab assignment on 5/16 and should make at least two starts before Boston decides on his status, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports. His estimated return is 5/22-28.
• Carlos Carrasco, Mets: Carrasco (elbow) made another rehab start on 5/14 for Double-A Binghamton before likely returning from the 15-day IL this week. He pitched four scoreless innings, giving up only two hits and a walk with four strikeouts before finishing his 65-pitch count in the pen. He could slot in on 5/19-20 versus a familiar friend, Tito and his team from Cleveland. For further evidence, Joey Lucchesi was sent down on 5/14 to provide the Mets with another pen arm for the (ridiculous) suspended game from the day prior. Somebody needs to do something about the Nationals’ PPD practices. Is John Wick available?

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Josiah Gray⁵⁹, RH WSH (@MIA, DET; 45% rostered in Yahoo, 16% in ESPN, 87% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Gray has been better than I expected this season, and I was among the few in the industry who were high on him entering 2023. He is allowing a 2.96 ERA (3.64 xERA) in 45.2 innings. The key has been a much lower 39.8% FB rate, which has resulted in a tidy 0.99 HR/9 (career 2.11). The cause can be attributed to a change in his pitch mix, and although it has resulted in more contact on the ground (43.6%), it has also lowered his K rate (20.6%). However, two bad teams in Miami (23.7% K rate vs. RHP, 10^th worst) and Detroit (24.6%, seventh) can help him out there. 

Honorable Mention: Michael Wacha⁸⁶, RH SDP (KCR, BOS; 17% rostered in Yahoo, 9% in ESPN, 58% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Wacha gets an extra day of rest before his first start against Kansas City with Ryan Weathers getting the spot start on 5/14.

One-Start Pitcher: Seth Lugo⁸⁸, RH SDP (KCR; 44% rostered in Yahoo, 29% in ESPN, 82% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Lugo owns a 3.18 ERA with a 3.94 FIP, 3.79 xFIP and 3.92 SIERA. His fastball usage has increased from 29% in 2022 to 36% this season. As a result, he has a strong 33.4% CSW on the pitch. He also has a 65.2% GB rate when contact is made on his sinking fastball (46.3% in 2022). Overall, the GB rate lies at 47.1% on all pitches, and thus his HR/9 is down to 1.13. And his 31.1% FB rate is the lowest mark of his career, excluding 2020. The 84.8% LOB rate is bound to come down, but I see no reason it can’t settle above his 76.8% career rate (mostly in relief). 

Ultra Sneaky: Patrick Corbin^NR, LH WSH (NYM, DET; 3% rostered in Yahoo, 2% in ESPN, 30% in Fantrax Dynasty) – WARNING… Not for the Faint of Heart. GULP! Alright, here we go. Firstly, this is a pure 15-16 team league stream. Allow me to make that perfectly clear. However, Corbin has shown up this year in positive matchups (i.e. CLE, 4/16 and CHC, 5/4). Furthermore, in his last five starts, he has a 3.56 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 21 strikeouts in 30.1 IP. New York has struggled against the 57 lefty starters they’ve faced so far (exaggeration but seems like it). They rank 23^rd in BA (.237), 16^th in ISO (.162) and 20^th in wOBA (.313) vs. LHP. Meanwhile, Detroit ranks 20^th in BA (.247), 15^th in ISO (.163) and 22^nd in wOBA (.310) vs. LHP. 

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!