MLB Weekly Preview: 9/18 – 9/24

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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Finish Strong

The end of every fantasy baseball season always makes me feel sentimental. If you are still with us and reading this, congratulations on making it to the end. That is an accomplishment unto itself. However, the work is not done.

Before we get into the goods, for the past few seasons, I’ve shared a story for motivation. I’m copying and pasting it again for the new subscribers this year and as a reminder to those who have been with us for a while. Feel free to skim to the good parts if you’ve #beentheredonethat ??

So, the story… coaches from the youth level on up can, and often do, shape a person into who they become in life. Instilling fundamental moral principles and motivations while instructing the game they love. If you ever played a sport, you know exactly what I mean. Two stand out for me: my high school strength & conditioning coach, John Mckenna, and my college baseball coach, Fred Hill. Unfortunately, both of these great men are no longer with us, but their legacy lives on in all of their athletes. What did the two have in common? Coincidentally enough, both had the same mantra, which was often repeated at practices, scrimmages, games, seasons, etc. “Start Strong, Finish Strong!”

These words have carried me through A LOT in life. Every time I feel weak, weary or overwhelmed, I repeat these words in my head. Matter of fact, I’m reciting them as I type the words. I repeat them when I’m up at 3:24 am ET reviewing pitching matchups. The mantra inspires me to be my very best. No matter what, being at my best – reaching my max potentiality – makes me feel like a winner. And what do winners do? They fucking win!

This brings me to the point. It is time to FINISH STRONG. We braved the elements, handled the vast amount of SP injuries, and dealt with the late scratches. We shuffled our rosters when players were suddenly unavailable. Now is not the time to stray from the mission and deviate off course. The title of champion remains the same, and the color of money stays true. Don’t let the NFL get your eye off the prize! You worked hard this season, under challenging circumstances, and now is the time to finish as strong as you started to lock up that championship. Fuck your Fantasy Football lineups… let’s gooooooooo!

As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover, drop a line in our 24/7 MLB Discord chat or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: PHI shifts to 2 L / 5 R with Fried scratch (see below).

NOTES: In the final weeks of the fantasy season, you will find this article to be more of the “meat and potatoes” version. All of the information will be provided minus my jibber-jabber. If you need me to expand on anything or have any questions, tag me in Discord or hit me up on Twitter (links above). Unlike last week’s busy hitter schedule, where we had 18 seven-game teams, we have 11 this week. We do get a good amount of homestands and road trips to take advantage of positive park shifts for our hitters with six games (18). Keep tabs on division and wild-card races, as teams who clinch may be likely to sit position players or skip pitchers.

Five-Game Week: ARI (SFG – 2, @NYY – 3) If you roster a D-back, we had this week circled months ago. Now we know Logan Webb should be one of the opposing pitchers. I’m not too worried about NYY’s arms, but with only five games, it’s best to leave them on your bench for the final week. Looking ahead, the D-backs face the White Sox on the road before concluding the regular season vs. the ‘Stros in Arizona. If you are in a two-week finale and positions set by the first game this week for the entirety, then I’m good with the plays.

In the immortal words of Al Bundy…

Quick Hitters

This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

• BAL (@HOU – 3, @CLE – 4): The O’s are in a fierce battle with Tampa Bay for the AL EAST crown, and it could come down to the wire. The park factors aren’t where you want them for hitters yet are still mid-pack. They should see the up-and-down arms of Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier in the Houston series. Cleveland may have a returning Shane Bieber, but he’ll be in store for a short start before turning it over to the bullpen. Baltimore hitters will guide you to the promised land. 
• BOS (@TEX – 3, CHW – 3): How do you not love these park factors for hitting? Their wild-card hopes hang on a wing and a prayer, but there’s still a chance. The once-pitching robust Rangers are minus Max and doing well piecemealing it together, so I expect mucho runs in that series.
• TOR (@NYY – 3, @TBR – 3): At first glance, the falling Jays seem in store for pitcher’s parks this week, representing negative park shifts even from the Rogers Centre, which favors the pitcher too. But upon further inspection, the power bats benefit from Yankee Stadium’s 124 HR park factor and Tropicana Field’s 105. 
• DET (@LAD – 3, @OAK – 4): For those who stuck with Spencer Torkelson (66% rostered in Yahoo, 26% in ESPN, 95% in Fantrax Dynasty), we salute you. Fantasy baseball is a game of patience and knowing when to use your players. Tork has hit .319 over his previous 14 games with seven extra-base hits, four home runs and a 2:3 BB:K ratio. Meanwhile, Matt Vierling (5% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 24% Fantrax) is batting .375 with 5 XBH, 2 HR (including his first career grand slam) and a stolen bag in his last 14. 
• KCR (CLE – 3, @HOU – 3): Michael Massey (5% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 27% Fantrax) is on a power surge right now with homers in three straight games and four bombs in seven games overall.
• CHW (@WSH – 3, @BOS – 3): Two top-10 hitters’ parks overall this season as the Pale Hose take their parting shots. 
• CLE (@KCR – 3, BAL – 4): Josh Naylor and the litany of left-handed bats in the Guardians lineup are prime for a big week.
• MIN (@CIN – 3, LAA – 3): Three games at Great American and back home at Target is very nice!
• TEX (BOS – 3, SEA – 3): I referenced Texas above, and they will have their share of the mucho runs. Globe Life Field’s HRPF is up to 132. It’s Seager Time!
• Similar to our streaming buddies in Detroit and KC, WSH (CHW – 3, ATL – 4) is in a good spot this week. ATL pitchers may seem daunting, but they will miss Spencer Strider, while Wright & Fried are still searching for their forms. Nationals Park is below league average in extra-base hits but is a top-10 hitter’s park. Estimated to see six right-handed starters, I like Dom Smith (2% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 20% Fantrax) this week to continue seeing playing time and making the most of it! In his last 14, he has a .387 BA with seven XBH, three HR and seven rib-eye steaks. Also, I’m interested in CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas.
• NYM (@MIA – 3, @PHI – 4): New York’s offense is humming right now, and in true Mets fashion, too little, too late. But they have always hit well in Philadelphia, and the road trip offers a positive park shift overall for their hitters despite tough opposing pitching. Expect the Mets to continue to play spoiler till the end… LFGM!
• ATL (PHI – 3, @WSH – 4): You don’t need me to tell you to play your Braves as they chase history. They are on pace to tally 311 homers, which would be four more than the MLB record set by the 2019 Twins. They already own the NL record this year and stand at 287 as of this writing.
• PHI (@ATL – 3, NYM – 4): The Phillies own the top Wild Card spot as of this writing, but their lead has dwindled to a precarious place. It’s a dog fight in the NL, but luckily, Philly has some experience with pooches. Three at Truist could produce some fireworks. Four at home vs. NYM will. 
• MIL (@STL – 4, @MIA – 3): While Busch Stadium’s Statcast Park Factor is inflated this season (more on that in Places to Avoid below), Milwaukee is a volume play I like as they try to wrap up the NL Central. They will face some meatballs on the mound.
• CIN (MIN – 3, PIT – 3): GREAT AMERICAN SMALL PARK + WILD CARD RACE = ELLY DE LA CRUZ RESURRECTION ? But in all seriousness, play your Reds hitters. They should only see one lefty this week for the platoon situations.
• CHC (PIT – 3, COL – 3): Back at The Friendly Confines after a trip out west, I like my Cubbies to do some home-cooking with some very suspicious pitching staffs. Pittsburgh starters have a 4.83 ERA on the season (23rd) and a 4.04 Bullpen ERA (17th, thanks to Bednar’s 1.89). Meanwhile, Colorado starters are legendarily horrid with a 5.99 ERA (dead last). And the Rockies pen has been last in Bullpen ERA for most of the season (5.29). Update: COL will now be more shorthanded with Kyle Freeland and Peter Lambert hitting the IL!
• LAD (DET – 4, SFG – 3): Dodger Stadium’s HR park factor is 123. It will rise this week, believe that! Freddie Freeman roped four hits (including an HR) on his birthday last week. Thank you, Sandro! I like his chances to add to his totals. #ForeverSeptemberMuncy

Places to Avoid

• OAK (SEA – 3, DET – 4): Don’t get sucked into playing a volume play like the A’s. While I’m interested in playing Esteury Ruiz if chasing steals, there are tough pitching matchups galore here, and I don’t need to remind you that Oakland Coliseum is a pitcher’s haven. Oh wait, I just did. My boy Shea Langeliers has been having a power boon himself, attaining 20 bombs on the season with four in his last six games. Yet, most of his home runs have come on the road this season, including three of those four. It’s hard to sit a seven-game catcher in weekly locks, but I’d go with another option over Bangeliers this week.
• STL (MIL – 4, @SDP – 3): You may think to yourself, “Sweet, I got Contreras, Jordan Walker and/or Goldy at home for four games this week and seven overall. Bet!” NOT SO FAST! While Busch Stadium has a high overall Park Factor, extra-base hits still go to die there. The Brew Crew will be sending Freddy Peralta to the bump, who may have a 4+ road ERA this year, but in his last nine starts, his ERA is 2.01 with an 82:11 K:BB (includes four road starts). Furthermore, Corbin Burnes could pitch on regular rest in the finale. This will depend on whether they have to fend off the Cubs for the division. Then they travel to Petco Park, a pitcher’s haven. Michael Wacha is due to pitch against the club that gave up on him. Um…
• PIT (@CHC – 3, @CIN – 3): Pittsburgh will be playing some teams desperate to punch their ticket into the playoffs. The Buccos do have favorable park factors for their hitters, so many may swarm to pick up Jack Suwinski (24% Yahoo, 7% ESPN, 65% Fantrax). However, there are a few strikes against him. First, he doesn’t play every day and will sit against lefties. Pittsburgh will be up against one of the best southpaws this year, Justin Steele. And Cincy may fire two lefties in their series. So, we may be talking about three games of ABs. Secondly, Suwinski has not shown consistency and is prone to severe slumps. While he’s hot now, there’s no guarantee this hot streak will ride out till the end of the season, especially if there is choppy starting time in Week 26.

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IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 9/16/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant.

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TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Spencer Strider² (PHI, WSH) ⬅️ As a result of Fried’s scratch, Wright will pitch on 9/18 (6 days rest). Strider moves up on 9/29 (five days rest, possible two-start now unless a spot starter is used on 9/21). Also, Elder moves up to 9/20 (normal rest).
2. Zack Wheeler⁶ (@ATL, NYM)
3. Freddy Peralta¹² (@STL, @MIA)
4. Max Fried¹⁴ (PHI, WSH) ⬅️ Fried should see a second stanza this week unless ATL brings up one of their 80 billion farmhands to make a spot start and send Fried into the final week. However, with their 9/25 off day, it’s less likely. Although, with ATL wrapping up the division, maybe the team pushes Fried for rest to the middle of the final week so that he lines up with their postseason schedule. Keep Tabs! UPDATE Could pitch on 9/21-24; if not 9/21, ATL will need a farmhand spot start.
5. Justin Verlander²¹ (BAL, KCR) ⬅️ Verlander will slide down to face the M’s next week in Seattle with the playoff race boiling hot. Makes sense, but boooooo! Brown picks up a second start.
6. Joe Ryan²⁴ (@CIN, LAA)
7. Jordan Montgomery²⁵ (BOS, SEA)
8. Eduardo Rodriguez^DTD (@LAD, @OAK?) ⬅️ Sure, now DET switches ERod and a Faedo bulk game to give him two starts. I guess I was a week too soon, but makes sense with matchups. However, ERod had scapula (back) spasms and left early in first start. Next start TBD.
9. Hunter Brown⁵⁰ (BAL, KCR)
10. Yusei Kikuchi⁵¹ (@NYY, @TBR?) ⬅️ Kikuchi is DTD with cramps in his upper left trap due to “a lack of sleep,” but they are already joking about it on TwitterX here and here, so doesn’t seem to be a big deal.
11. Lance Lynn⁵² (DET, SFG)
12. Alex Cobb^IL (@ARI, @LAD?) ⬅️ Cobb’s second start could get pushed again for a bulk guy to manage his hip issue, especially after only making it through two innings before the issue became a problem again vs. ARI. Very risky start ROS. Cobb now hits the IL with hopes of pitching for San Fran in the playoffs. But his season is done for us. 
13. Michael Wacha⁵⁴ (COL, STL)

Other Options: Mike Clevinger⁶¹ (@WSH, @BOS), Kyle Gibson⁶⁴ (@HOU, @CLE), Kutter Crawford⁶⁶ (@TEX, CHW), Javier Assad⁶⁷ (PIT, COL), Ryan Pepiot⁶⁹ (DET, SFG) POV SPECIAL, Kyle Wright⁷² (PHI, WSH), Bryan Woo⁷⁵ (@OAK, @TEX), Brady Singer^IL-O (CLE, @HOU), Nathan Eovaldi⁸³ (BOS, SEA), Clarke Schmidt⁸⁴ (TOR, ARI), JP Sears⁸⁷ (SEA, DET) POV SPECIAL, Edward Cabrera⁸⁸ (NYM, MIL) POV SPECIAL, Paul Blackburn⁹¹ (SEA, DET)

Danger Zone: Cristopher Sánchez/Michael Lorenzen Tandem¹⁰¹ (@KCR, BAL?), Cal Quantrill¹²⁶ (@KCR, BAL) POV SPECIAL, Taj Bradley¹³⁰ (LAA, TOR), John Means¹⁴² (@HOU, @CLE), José Butto¹⁵⁰ (@MIA, @PHI), Joan Adon^NR (CHW, ATL), Adrian Houser^NR (@STL, @MIA) Deep Diver, Drew Rom^NR (MIL, @SDP), Ty Blach^NR (@SDP, @CHC), Connor Phillips^NR (MIN, PIT), Bailey Falter/Quinn Priester Tandem^NR (@CHC, @CIN)

*Assad is set up for a sweet two-step, but with Marcus Stroman¹¹⁰ active and pitching out of the pen for now, Assad’s second start could be a montage of the two. UPDATE: Gibson picks up a second start due to Jack Flaherty being moved to pen. Also, if TEX rolls a four-man to stay in playoff race, Eovaldi would earn a second start too. However, would that be a good idea for a guy who is still building up and who’s velo is down? They may have no choice. Otherwise, it’s a bullpen game vs. your division opponent who you’re jockeying for playoff positon.

Cristopher Sanchez and Michael Lorenzen will piggyback a start next Tuesday in Atlanta. After that it’s TBD, but Lorenzen is expected to see more time in bullpen down the stretch.

— Todd Zolecki (@ToddZolecki) September 16, 2023

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STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR SEPT 18 – 24

UPDATE: LAA shuffles rotation. Detmers, who did not pitch on his day (9/17), will now face the Rays in TB. Canning will also now face TBR. Probably best to avoid both in the season’s penultimate week, but I kinda like these matchups better for them if you have to go there. (8/19) Oviedo moves up to face the Cubs at Wrigley, which is like going from the bear’s den to the lion’s den. Conversely, Hendricks will move up from one good matchup to another vs. PIT. The move comes from Jameson Taillon being skipped for at least the Pirates series. It remains to be seen if he will take Hendricks former start or miss altogether. After all, a Mr. Stroman lurks around who may pitch bulk innings instead (or along with) as he builds up for the playoffs. Of course, should CHC make it.

“TOO MANY ACES BATTLING TO PICK JUST ONE!”

Cole/Berríos – Woodruff/Luzardo – Webb/Kelly
And more to come with playoff tickets to punch! ?️

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MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves – DTD, Right Calf Tightness

Acuña was pulled from his contest on 9/15 as a precaution. However, his absence from the lineup continues. He missed the rest of the series with the Marlins (barring a pinch-hitting appearance following this writing). No sense in rushing back their star OF with the division on ice and a healthy lead for best record. Although, I do believe we see Acuña sooner than later in his pursuit of 40/70!

Tristan Casas, Red Sox – 10-day IL, Right Shoulder Inflammation (Retro 9/15)

Casas hits the IL on Saturday with inflammation in his right shoulder. He flew back to Boston and will undergo imaging on 9/17 to see the extent of his injury. The earliest Casas could return is 9/24 for the season’s final week, but it’s too soon to speculate. In a corresponding move, Boston calls up Bobby Dalbec (<1% rostered in Yahoo, <1% in ESPN, 10% in Fantrax Dynasty), who has been raking at Triple-A Worcester (33 homers, .938 OPS in 413 ABs).

Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles – DTD, Shoulder Discomfort

Mountcastle was out of the Orioles’ lineup for a fourth straight game on 9/17 due to left shoulder soreness. He misses the vital Tampa Bay series. He’s been out since mid-week due to left shoulder discomfort, although imaging on his shoulder came back clean. Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said that Mountcastle was not a candidate to go on the IL. 

Medical Updates…

• Christian Yelich, Brewers: Yelich (lower back stiffness) returned on 9/15 after a six-game absence, but he was out of the lineup again on 9/16-17 and is day-to-day. “I just don’t think we’re at 100 percent yet,” Brewers manager Craig Counsell said. “I think we should wait until we get there.”
• Tanner Bibee, Guardians: Bibee left his start on 9/16 with right hip tightness after delivering a pitch in the sixth inning and awkwardly limping off the mound. Here’s Tito talking about Bibee. UPDATE: Bibee hits 15-day IL, and his remarkable rookie season is over. He finishes with a 2.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 141 Ks in 142 IP. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are amlost done rehabbing and are likely to make some short apprearances to close out the season.
• Jasson Domínguez, Yankees: Domínguez is set to undergo Tommy John surgery on 9/20 to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament.

Pouring one out for Shohei Ohtani’s Los Angeles Angels career…

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Ryan Pepiot⁶⁹, RH LAD (DET, SFG; 58% rostered in Yahoo, 29% in ESPN, 72% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Pepiot has a lot of bullets left (49.2 IP on the season; 127.2 in 2022) and may be the freshest LA arm of the bunch. It has only been 27 MLB innings, yet Pepiot is rocking a smooth 2.00 ERA (2.83 xERA, 3.52 FIP, 3.92 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA). Even though the ERA may rise a titch, I’m not worried due to his low walk rate, decent K rate and the equivalency of his GB & FB rates (both at 42.3% in the small sample, but he is inducing grounders at a nice clip while limiting line drives – 15.5% LD rate). Pepiot may win a few leagues this week!

UPDATE: LAD shuffle their roation after Pepiot’s first excellent start to accomodate Mr. Kershaw. Pepiot will now face the Rockies in Coors next week (but may get a rematch with San Fran and second start next week, depending on how the LAD rotation shapes out). ?

Honorable Mention: JP Sears⁸⁷, LH OAK (SEA, DET; 14% Yahoo, 6% ESPN, 49% Fantrax), Edward Cabrera⁸⁸, RH MIA (NYM, MIL; 26% Yahoo, 8% ESPN, 74% Fantrax), Cal Quantrill¹²⁶, RH CLE (@KCR, BAL; 25% Yahoo, 10% ESPN, 64% Fantrax)

One-Start Pitcher: Seth Lugo⁴⁸, RH SDP (COL; 56% Yahoo, 38% ESPN, 82% Fantrax) – Rinse & repeat with Lugo. I recommended him last week with this week’s potential start in mind. Plus, he should have another favorable matchup @SFG in the final week! Take us home, man!

Deep Divers (15-16 TEAMS ONLY): Adrian Houser^NR, RH MIL (@STL, @MIA; 7% Yahoo, 2% ESPN, 26% Fantrax), Sawyer Gipson-Long^NR, RH DET (@OAK; 5% Yahoo, <1% ESPN, 21% Fantrax) – Looks like MIL will keep Colin Rea (following opener Trevor Megill) in the rotation to keep everyone with five days of rest. I had thought they would do this, but when they sent Rea down, I thought they would push everyone on normal rest to close the season. But with the team opening a six-game lead in the division, their plans changed. Corbin Burnes now faces the Marlins in Miami, while everyone else remains with same matchup.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!