In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: This week marks the beginning of September baseball. The bittersweet end is in sight. MLB rosters will expand on the first from 26 players to 28. Not as “Wild West” as a 40-man active roster, and only one of the two extra players can be a pitcher. This helps the pro teams and gives us a few more options! Whether you’ve already made the playoffs, are in your championship, or are fighting for your playoff life, I hold the keys to the kingdom in what follows. It’s time to finish strong!
Just like our showdowns in fantasy, there are exciting matchups on the diamond with playoff spots on the line. Monday will be loaded with games to kickstart our week, which creates a dynamic DFS slate. Conversely, Thursday will only have four games. The Tigers wrap up a four-game set with the Yankees. Miami travels to our Nation’s Capital to begin a four-game series with the Nats. San Fran does the same in San Diego. But the largest series of the week, bound to produce fireworks, will be the Braves/Dodgers four-game battle, beginning on 8/31. It will be a day when you can get a serious edge over your adversary.
Overall, nine teams play seven games this week. Most (7) are in the NL, and three are in the NL West as they battle it out! A majority (20) teams play the standard six games, while the Tampa Bay Rays get five to lick their pitcher’s wounds.
Five-Game Week: TBR (@MIA – 2, @CLE – 3)
In the immortal words of Al Bundy…
A Few Areas to Target
This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!
Coors Banquet… For Two?
Two superior offenses invade Coors Field this week. First, it’s the Braves (@COL – 3, @LAD – 4), who have five batters with 25+ home runs, as Kyle Elfrink points out in Fantasy Guru Today. Kyle goes on to identify that the 2019 Minnesota Twins had five players with 30 HRs on their way to 307 on the year, the all-time Major League record. Atlanta is on pace for 309. Additionally, Sean Murphy and Eddie Rosario are at 20 long flies. Mr. Elfrink sums up that no team has ever had seven guys hit 25+ HRs. Murphy, Rosario and this lethal Braves lineup could accomplish both records this week! Okay, I jest, but both are within reach for the 2023 season, and this awesome hitting schedule will help their efforts.
Atlanta is set to face a Rockies team that has an August ERA of 6.18, the second-worst in baseball. They’re striking out just six batters per nine innings and gave up 34 home runs. The matchup with LA could be a preview of the NLCS, so to say it’s a big series is an understatement. The Dodgers will be a bit more difficult, but the Braves have proven they can beat anybody up. This will be a big week for Atlanta.
Murphy and Rosario (52% rostered in Yahoo, 17% in ESPN, 63% in Fantrax Dynasty) play in such strong platoon situations, whether it be for handedness or crowded position. The Braves may face up to four lefty starters this week, which makes playing Rosario hard in weekly lock leagues (two each series so, can’t even squeeze him in for bi-weekly leagues like NFBC). But you could play your matchups and Murphy when he’s in there for your daily leagues. There is actually a third player who is a dark horse to reach 25 HRs on the Braves. But Orlando Arcia (60% rostered in Yahoo, 32% in ESPN, 67% in Fantrax Dynasty) would have to go on a magical run. He’s sitting on 15 and will add to that total this week. Lock.. it… up.
Other righty bats Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna should feast too. Of the three, I like Ozuna the best, believe it or not! In 86 August at-bats, he’s hitting .369 with eight doubles, six home runs, 19 RBI, and some incredible hitting with runners in scoring position. His 16% barrel rate and 49% hard-hit rate would be career highs. As one of the five batters with 25+ home runs (28), he’s on pace for a career-high 37, even after the slow start. His .276 xBA, .559 xSLG and .389 xwOBA show there is still room for growth before the season’s end.
Madman’s Eyes
Even though the Blue Jays offense can be Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, this is too talented of an offense with far too much power to ignore in Coors Field. And then you factor in the weaksauce pitching they’ll face (WSH – 3, @COL – 3).
- Josiah Gray
- MacKenzie Gore
- Patrick Corbin
- Chris Flexen
- Ty Blach
- Austin Gomber
While there is some talent on this list, current trends and performances have them as prime pitching targets for our Blue Jay hitters. Plus, we already have broken down the ineptitude of the Rockies pitching staff. But to lump on, their 5.10 Bullpen ERA is the fourth worst in baseball (per Covers).
Just like Little Billy in the Dave Matthews Band song-link above, George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and potentially Davis Schneider (7% Yahoo, 2% ESPN, 29% Fantrax) will be running rampant this week. It’s the righty bats we want, as Toronto will also face four lefty starters this week. Schneider is on the short side of a platoon for Toronto, but with all of those Southpaws, Toronto will often slide Whit Merrifield (also decent play this week) into the outfield and Schneider at second base. 24-year-old Davis Schneider has smacked two doubles, three home runs and six RBI with a .500 BA in the last 14 days (12 ABs). He’s free and available if you need him to complete your stack. Despite Rogers Centre favoring the pitcher, these Jays will be flying high in Week 23!
Quick Hitters…
- BAL (CHW – 3, @ARI – 3): Orioles will face six righty starters in their six games with some juicy matchups. Fire up Gunnar Henderson, and I like Cedric Mullins to continue rebounding from an up-and-down year.
- BOS (HOU – 3, @KCR – 3): Talking two ballparks that rank as a top-5 hitters park. Although ironically, both parks are almost equally stingy for HRs this season. However, Boston’s lefty hitters will see up to five righties on the mound this week.
- KCR (PIT – 3, BOS – 3): Kauffman continues to be a stellar hitters’ park for balls that stay in the yard. Royal hitters get back on the right track this week.
- MIN (CLE – 3, @TEX – 3; 1 L / 5 R): Great SPF for Twins hitters.
- HOU (@BOS – 3, NYY – 3; 2 L / 4 R): Not that you need more of a reason to start your Houston bats, but they take a trip to Fenway before heading home to feast on Yankees pitching in Minute Maid Park, now up to the 12th-best hitter SPF on the year.
- WSH (@TOR – 3, MIA – 4; 2 L / 5 R): Volume plays here, but the matchups and locations are not overly exciting.
- CIN (@SFG – 3, CHC – 4; 2 L / 5 R): The four-game set with the Cubbies includes a split doubleheader on 9/1 due to a rare early-season PPD makeup. This would normally dampen some bats due to the potentiality of sitting one game but less so with this offense. The starting nine average 25 years of age, so just like Mr. Cub, let’s play two! I’d be more concerned about facing Logan Webb and young hurler Kyle Harrison in the first series. However, Webb is coming off back-to-back rough outings against Atlanta, and Harrison will throw minimal innings as he drinks his cup of coffee.
- CHC (MIL – 3, @CIN – 4; 2 L / 5 R): Might as well lump those Cub hitters too. They get Great American Ball Park, plus Wrigley is now up to seventh in SPF with the warmer weather having its effect.
- LAD (ARI – 3, ATL – 4; 2 L / 5 R): There’s a lot of Dodger blue in their home field’s SPF categories, except in one large column, home runs. However, the opposition’s starting pitching is fierce, so we need to temper expectations despite the volume of games. Still start your LA studs, but I’d bench your fringe guys (i.e., James Outman and David Peralta).
- SDP (@STL – 3, SFG – 4): Manny Machado and company gonna break out a can of whoop ass, compliments of Captain Insano!
- COL (ATL – 3, TOR – 3): FWIW, the Rockies are home all this week, even if the competition is stout. Yet, the greatest of arms have crumbled under the weight of Coors Field. Additionally, Ezequiel Tovar has been hot and finally living up to spring training expectations.
If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
Take advantage of bad teams in good situations! Oh look, here come my stream buddies again, the Detroit Tigers (NYY – 4, @CHW – 3). Do You Remember – that’s another good recent tune for any of you DMB heads – the last time I recommended Detroit? Kerry Carpenter (70% Yahoo, 32% ESPN, 76% Fantrax) had a decent week, which began a hot streak where the 25-year-old OF/DH has had hits in 20 of 22 games, including nine multi-hit games (as of 8/27). His rostership has gone gangbusters since, but if he is still available in your league, he is in the midst of another heater and ready to continue it in Week 23.
The Yankees – other than Gerrit Cole – have had a miserable year on the mound. Detroit does get Cole but will also face Luis Severino, Jhony Brito and Clarke Schmidt. Sevy made some minor improvement two starts ago versus a tough Braves lineup and showed his previous luster against the Washington Nationals last time out. However, his K rate is still a paltry 17.7% (23.7% CSW!), and the 9% BB rate gets him in trouble. Meanwhile, Brito and Schmidt don’t frighten anyone. And then, there are the White Sox. Detroit is scheduled to face Touki Toussaint, Mike Clevinger (who is coming off a gem, albeit against Oakland) and struggling Michael Kopech. Delicious!
If you weren’t keeping track, that is seven righty starters. Rookie Parker Meadows (3% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 29% Fantrax) isn’t necessarily a highly-ranking prospect (Detroit’s No. 7 or 10, depending on who you ask), but he’s a real late bloomer. He has good wheels (Run Scouting Grade: 60) and decent power (50). However, since his call-up, he’s 6-for-20 with 3 XBH, 1 HR and a stolen base. The lefty has a sweet stroke and .808 OPS vs. RHP in Triple-A this year (331 ABS). And if these teams try to force him out with a lefty hurler, his .821 OPS in 69 ABs this year may keep him in the box. With this setup, Meadows is fixing to be the next great Tiger stream after Carpenter.
(See also Pirates, Pittsburgh – @KCR – 3, @STL – 3)
Places to Avoid
It’s easy to sit back and say avoid the Tampa Bay Rays this week. After all, they only play five games. But this insanely productive lineup is used to making the most out of very Littell (see what I did there?). Diving deeper, the Rays will face some fierce opposition on the mound in Sandy Alcantara and Jesús Luzardo in their Citrus Series. It gets lighter in Cleveland, but by then, your ship could be sunk. Also, they are away from the Trop all week. If that meant positive park shifts, I’d stick with them, but loanDepot park and Progressive Field are just as bad, if not worse for hitters. Strikeouts, there will be. In particular, I would avoid Luke Raley and Brandon Lowe this week. Raley is hitting just .188 with 3 HR, 5 RBI and no stolen bases in August (42% K rate). Lowe has just nine hits.
Other Avoids
- NYY (@DET – 4, @HOU – 3): Yanks are on the road, where Statcast HR Park Factors do Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton no favors, and overall SPFs are middle-of-the-road for hitters. Will face good pitching in both series and see up to five righty starters, which does their righty-laden lineup no favors as well. I’m starting Judge but out on the rest of their lineup.
- SFG (CIN – 3, @SDP – 4): Terrible Park Factors for hitters.
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
**2023 Statistics**
*As of 8/26/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers compiled an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Kevin Gausman3 (WSH, @COL)
- Zac Gallen5 (@LAD, BAL)
- Blake Snell8 (@STL, SFG)
- Clayton Kershaw26 (ARI,
ATL) ⬅️ With rosters expanding on 9/1, Dodgers will likely call-up another spot starter (Gavin Stone?) on 9/2 to give Kershaw and Bobby Miller an extra day. While Miller will retain his two-start status, Kersh will not. - Charlie Morton30 (@COL, @LAD)
- Jesús Luzardo36 (TBR,
@WSH) ⬅️ MIA will switch Sandy Alcantara and Luzardo in rotation order so the latter can get extra rest. While still on an extra day of rest due to off days, Sandy will get the two-start week instead. He moves ahead of Verlander to 16 in the rankings. - Taijuan Walker42 (LAA,
@MIL) ⬅️ If Ranger SuárezIL returns in the Milwaukee series, Walker will lose his second start. UPDATE: Suárez will indeed return from IL on 9/3. The assumption is the Phillies will return to a six-man rotation. - Kenta Maeda43 (CLE, @TEX)
- Jameson Taillon45 (MIL, @CIN)
- Cristian Javier47 (@BOS, NYY)⬅️ HOU moves José Urquidy to pen for now with off day.
- Seth Lugo49 (@STL, SFG) ⬅️ POV SPECIAL
- Tarik Skubal52 (NYY, @CHW) ⬅️ POV SPECIAL (If available) UPDATE: Skubal’s second start likely moves to next week with Matt Manning getting an extra day rest and Brendan White/Joey Wentz tandem spot appearance on 8/30. (8/31) Alex Faedo will shift to a multi-inning relief role to possibly pair with Joey Wentz until DET may need a sixth starter in Week 26’s seven games.
Other Options: Bryce Elder61 (@COL, @LAD), Bobby Miller62 (ARI, ATL), Aaron Civale67 (@MIA, @CLE), Jon Gray68 (@NYM, MIN), Josiah Gray75 (@TOR, MIA), Bryan Woo86 (OAK, @NYM) POV SPECIAL, Wade Miley88 (@CHC, PHI) POV SPECIAL, Andrew Abbott89 & Brandon WilliamsonCVDIL (@SFG, CHC), Reese Olson96 (NYY, @CHW), Chris Sale97 (HOU, @KCR), Johan Oviedo105 (@KCR, @STL), Alex Cobb59 & Kyle Harrison126 (CIN, @SDP), Zack Thompson117 (SDP, PIT)
*Elder has been pitching better again of late, but those matchups are horrid. Civale’s second start is conditional on TBR using a four-man rotation with only five games this week. UPDATE: Taj Bradley will be recalled on 9/3 to make the start. Civale will shift to next week (two starts, BOS & SEA). Makes sense with TBR playing from 9/1-9/17 straight. I also love Kyle Harrison, but there are a few things we are unsure of: a) how long will he pitch in each start as SFG manages his workload, and b) will he get both starts? I predict the answers are 3-4 innings and yes, as he can still have five days of rest and get the second start. Makes it hard to grab Ws, but Harrison can help in other areas.
UPDATE: Cobb will also get a second start this week, coming off his near no-no. The thought was SFG would use three tandem/bullpen games in the Padres series to keep Harrison on a six-day schedule. Plus, with Cobb firing a season-high 131 pitches, the move would give him extra rest as well. But with San Fran occupying the third WC spot by a narrow game, plans have changed. Furthermore, Harrison will have five days rest for his next projected start (9/8 vs. COL) with the 9/7 off day, so makes move work. I would expect both pitchers to have light workloads in San Diego.
Danger Zone: Luis Severino129 & Michael King/Jhony Brito TandemNR (@DET, @HOU), Tylor MegillNR (TEX, SEA), Michael KopechDTD (@BAL, DET), Zack GreinkeNR (PIT, BOS), Austin GomberDTD (ATL, TOR), Xzavion CurryNR (@MIN, TBR), Adam WainwrightNR (SDP, PIT), Tyler AndersonNR (@PHI, @OAK)
*Mets could use a spot starter on 8/30 – *cough* Joey Lucchesi – to keep Kodai Senga on extra rest. This move would move Senga to face SEA and take away Megill’s second start. Senga will get extra day and pitch against SEA on 9/1 in place of the Carlos Carrasco (waive). But it’s not Lucchesi with the spot start; it will be Denyi Reyes. Boo! Kopech left his previous start early due to leg cramping. While he appears on track to take the ball on 8/28, he could be given an extra day or two of rest as his innings pile up. He is over his 2022 total. Even if he goes as scheduled, the health issue, coupled with poor results and workload management, keeps him as “Not Rated” (NR).
*Also, Greinke may continue pitching in tandem with Angel Zerpa, at least for the first start. While that gives the almost 40-year-old a better win shot against the Pirates, it’s not worth the risk at this stage. The play would be for the truly desperate. Finally, with Cal Quantrill’s return to Cleveland’s rotation, Noah Syndergaard has been DFA’d. Quantrill (right shoulder inflammation) dominated over 7.1 innings in his rehab start for Triple-A Columbus on 8/26 and had a decent first outing on 9/1.
UPDATE
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUG 28 – SEPT 3
UPDATE: ATL pushes Spencer Strider back a day for rest during a busy stretch of 10 games in 10 days. Darius Vines makes a spot start on 8/30, and Strider moves to @LAD. Believe it or not, this may be a good thing! As we all know, pitching at Coors is hard, no matter the level of competition, but facing Dodgers in LA at night is not necessarily a bad thing. The ball has less carry there at night IMO. (8/30) Also, Lance Lynn will be pushed back to face ATL with Ryan Pepiot instead facing ARI on 8/30. Pepiot was org. slated for ATL on 9/1 so may have a limited workload.
“MUST SEE TV!”
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Tuesday, August 29 – 7:05 PM CT
Corbin Burnes vs. Justin Steele
It’s a battle for the NL Central! Also, on Friday, September 1, Milwaukee will play host to Philadelphia and see another excellent matchup: Zack Wheeler vs. Freddy Peralta. To say this week will define the Central is an understatement! ⚔️
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.
This just in…
Bo Bichette, Blue Jays – DTD, Right Quadricep Tightness
Bichette, who missed over two weeks earlier in the month with right knee patellar tendonitis, left the series finale on 8/27 against the Guardians after five innings with right quad tightness. Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic was first to report.
Félix Bautista, Orioles – 15-day IL, UCL Injury
Bautista was officially placed on the IL on 8/26 with “some degree of injury” to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, per Orioles general manager Mike Elias. By now, King Félix owners know what happened and who to grab (Yennier Cano). But as I was telling @Thunder06 in our seasonal Discord chat, “The problem I have with Cano is he doesn’t miss enough bats. His 24% K-rate isn’t bad, but he strikes out less than 9 per 9, and his CSW is 27%.” So I wouldn’t fret if you missed out or Cano is already rostered. But if he is available, it’s slim pickings for save opportunities this time of year.
Yandy Díaz, Rays – DTD, Left Forearm Soreness
Díaz was out of the starting lineup on 8/26 and 8/27 after he took a 98.1 mph sinker off his left forearm from Yankees right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga in the series opener. Watching it live, Díaz stared angrily toward the mound, acknowledging afterward through interpreter Manny Navarro that it was “a little painful.” He did finish the contest before becoming an absentee for the next two games. The good news is a CT scan came back negative. Díaz should avoid the IL and is day-to-day… aren’t we all.
Jake Cronenworth, Padres – 10-day IL, Right Wrist Fracture
Jake from Rake Farm was tuned up over the weekend when he was hit by a 92.9 mph pitch. Yeah, bring back the sticky stuff! His season is likely kaput. The good news is that Cronenworth will likely avoid surgery. But he will be in a cast for several weeks and get imaging done after that. Trade deadline acquisition Garrett Cooper will get run at first base, especially with Ji-Man Choi still on the shelf. On a brighter note, Joe Musgrove played catch for the first time on 8/25 since landing on the 15-day injured list on 8/4 with right shoulder capsule inflammation. He said he got about 30 throws in, at 70-75 feet on flat ground, and his arm “felt great.”
Medical Updates…
- Byron Buxton, Twins: Buxton (right hamstring strain) is expected to go through a baserunning progression on 8/28 and take live batting practice later in the week, which will bring him closer to a rehab assignment. Buxton has not played in the outfield this season, but head athletic trainer Nick Paparesta confirmed that once Buxton is ready to begin a rehab assignment, he will see some time in center field.
- Mason Miller, Athletics: Miller (mild UCL sprain) threw a third rehab start on 8/24, and it went great with Miller showing his triple-digit heat. However, it was only for three innings. Miller will toss a fourth rehab start either on 8/29 or 8/30 and could be activated when rosters expand for a short start (9/3 vs. LAA?). His innings will be restricted the rest of the way no matter what course of action the team takes. Oakland just wants to get him healthy for 2024. He won’t have much fantasy appeal this season but could be a source of strikeouts (25.9% K rate).
- Chase Silseth, Angels: In one of the scariest sights I’ve seen on a ballfield in quite some time, Silseth had an errant throw glance off his left temple. After going down in a heap like a punch-drunk boxer, Silseth was aided off the field and taken to the hospital. By the grace of God, he was discharged and avoided a concussion. His next start is up in the air. “I think we avoided something serious, but with head injuries, you always want to be cautious,” Angels manager Phil Nevin said of Silseth. The article states that the Angels will attempt to keep a six-man rotation going, even without Ohtani in the fold. But this week, they may opt for five if Silseth misses his next start, penciled in for 9/2.
- Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers: Manager Bruce Bochy said that Eovaldi (right forearm strain) was feeling tightness in his side after his latest bullpen session on 8/24. Bochy said there is nothing wrong with Eovaldi’s arm, but the team wants to be cautious with the All-Star right-hander. The team is unsure if he will need a rehab start, but the article link insinuates he will require one.
- Kenley Jansen, Red Sox: Jansen (right hamstring tightness) passed a big test on 8/26 by throwing a brief live batting practice session before the game. He expected to be available for the series finale vs. the Dodgers but did not make an appearance.
- FWIW: Mike Yastrzemski (left hamstring strain) and Mitch Haniger (right forearm fracture) of the San Francisco Giants are both expected to be activated during the Aug. 28-30 series against the Reds.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Seth Lugo49, RH SDP (@STL, SFG; 42% rostered in Yahoo, 23% in ESPN, 77% in Fantrax Dynasty) – I featured Lugo on this space earlier in the year, and while he missed the mark I was hoping for, second time’s the charm here. Lugo will earn you plenty of strikeouts this week with the possibility of swooping up two victories. The former Met is coming off of back-to-back excellent performances where he allowed just one run over 12 innings. His ERA for the year is 3.70, and his FIP is nearly identical at 3.75 (3.64 xFIP). The 33-year-old is also striking out nearly a batter per inning.
The Padres have been mediocre at best. Yet, Lugo is projected to face the Cardinals and Giants this week, both winnable matchups. He hasn’t faced St. Louis yet this year but did hold the Giants to just three hits and one run over five innings back in June. Lugo’s worth picking up this week if you’re chasing wins.
Honorable Mention: Bryan Woo86, RH SEA (OAK, @NYM; 21% Yahoo, 8% ESPN, 57% Fantrax), Wade Miley88, LH MIL (@CHC, PHI; 37% Yahoo, 11% ESPN, 61% Fantrax), Tarik Skubal52, LH DET (NYY, @CHW; 44% Yahoo, 18% ESPN, 77% Fantrax) – Woo pitched well in his return and should be built up to qualify for wins. He gets a sweet two-step. As for Miley, he has been good (not great) since his return from the IL. I’m more nervous about the Cubs’ start, to be honest. Philly has been bad against lefties. While Miley can be utilized in weekly locks, I like him better as a Sunday streamer. Lastly, I have Skubal here for shallow leagues where available. If you are in a deeper league and all of these guys are on teams, you can consider Skubal’s teammate Reese Olson96, RH (NYY, @CHW; 3% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 29% Fantrax).
UPDATE: Due to Georgy Kirby’s scratch on 8/29 from illness, Woo will lose his second start when the prior re-enters the rotation @NYM on 9/3. Not the worst thing for Woo, who is on an innings watch, and he should lead off next on 9/4 for another shot at a two start. It doesn’t help us this week, however.
One-Start Pitcher: Patrick Sandoval56, LH LAA (@OAK; 41% Yahoo, 30% ESPN, 81% Fantrax) – This one seems too easy. You wanna ride the hot & cold train of Sandoval when he’s up. And he’s coming off a solid win against my Mets, who have been hitting the crap out of the baseball. Park Factors? Check. Team that struggles against lefties? Double Check. Just don’t hate me in the morning if Oakland has one of its random outbursts of offense. I do fear Zack Gelof.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!
