MLB Weekly Preview: 6/12 – 6/18

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: HOU shifts to 3 L / 3 R with MacKenzie Gore moved up to face the ‘Stros and Jake Irvin pushed back to work on mechanics.

NOTES: Homestands and road trips galore this week, with 12 of each (7/6 AL | 5/6 NL, respectively). Paying attention to park factors will be key! For the first time since the pandemic year of 2020, we see a division where four teams play homestands while the fifth is on the road. It is the AL West, and the Halos are the road warriors. We will discuss more regarding LAA and others in the division below in our targets. All total, only nine teams play seven games this week (5 AL | 4 NL). Meanwhile, 18 teams play six games, while three unfortunate souls play five this week. The first installment of the Subway Series highlights the five-game teams.

Luis Arraez’s name is on everyone’s lips in the baseball and fantasy baseball community. Over the previous seven games, Arraez is 17 for his last 29, raising his batting average to .403 (as of 6/10). Every fantasy analyst and baseball columnist is writing about his quest for Ted Williams and .400. Arraez gets a lot of comps to Tony Gwynn (rightfully so), whose .394 batting average in 1994 is the closest anyone has come to hitting . 400.  Repeat, everyone is writing about his quest in 2023. Here’s me writing about his likelihood of a batting title and hitting .400 in… 2020. 

{Pause for a second while I shamelessly pat myself on the back and give myself a MF cookie}

Hey, it was a pandemic, and I was bored while scouring for baseball stats. I saw something besides his world-famous shake at the plate in his rookie year. It led me to bet on his odds for a batting championship last year. If only I bet on his odds at .400. 

Arraez is terrific for points leagues but takes a hit in category leagues.

Five-Game Week: NYY (@NYM – 2, @BOS – 3), NYM (NYY – 2, STL – 3), MIL (@MIN – 2, PIT – 3)

A Few Areas to Target

If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

Shohei at the Bat
This is a good week to play Shohei Ohtani as a hitter, especially with how he’s been raking vs. regressing on the mound with his control. His 11.1% walk rate would be his highest total since his MLB rookie season in 2018 (min. 50 IP)! But there is joy in Mudville. Well, Anaheim. The Angels (@TEX – 4, @KCR – 3) will see up to six right-hand starters in their seven games.* Even the opener situation vs. KCR features two righties, Carlos Hernández (open) and Mike Mayers (bulk). Ohtani is slashing .299/.376/.626 vs. RHP with 15 of his 18 HR against righties. YUM! The overall Statcast park factors favor him, too. Globe Life Field and Kauffman Stadium are both t-4^th in SPF (105). 

Also, if you need help at the catcher or utility position, Matt Thaiss (2% rostered in Yahoo, 1% in ESPN, 11% in Fantrax Dynasty) should see the lion’s share of the starts behind the dish. His slash line vs. RHP is .267/.378/.406 in 101 at-bats this season. Plus, he’s basically free in the deepest of leagues. 

In four contests, the Halos will oppose the Rangers (LAA – 4, TOR – 3). We know Globe Life Field is t-4^th in SPF. Arlington, Texas, plays host to all seven games for their hitters this week, which provides a significant boost. The exact amount of that boost will depend on whether the retractable roof is open or shut. According to Baseball Savant, in the open air this season, the HR park factor is 164, the Run park factor is 139, and all other hitting categories are in the red (favoring hitters). With the roof shut, the HR park factor decreases to 118 (still good), but all other hitting categories, excluding doubles, go way down.  

Here are GLF’s guidelines. “If the outside temperature is above 80 or below 65, or there is a threat of rain or winds above 20 mph before the anticipated end of the game, the roof will remain closed throughout the contest.” Let’s hope for nice weather! Because Texas has an extremely favorable opposing pitching schedule for lefty hitters (2 L / 5 R). Fire up Corey Seager, Nate Lowe and switch-hitting catcher, Jonah Heim. In deep, NL-only or hitter-only leagues, you can look at Travis Jankowski (<1% Yahoo, <1% ESPN, 6% Fantrax). He may only see five starts, but he has hits in five of his last eight games, including a double and stolen base. It’s the last stat that I’m honing in on. If he can get on base at his .373 OBP, he has a 7.7 speed score and has a career 76% SB success rate. 

*With Jon Gray scratched on 6/13 and Cody Bradford filling in, the number of righties decreases to five… didn’t stop him on Monday! ?

Ray of Sunshine
Tampa Bay (@OAK – 4, @SDP – 3) lines up for four games against the lowly Oakland Athletics, whose staff holds a 6.40 team ERA, by far the worst in the league. The next closest staff is Colorado’s 5.27. The Rays’ quest of 11 hitters having double-digit home runs becomes more real by the day. The Friars pose more of a threat, but that’s not saying much. Their staff does have a 3.48 ERA and .218 batting average against at home. However, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove have not been up to snuff. And Tampa Bay is the best-hitting team on the road with a .266 road BA, 50 HR (third) and 169 runs (sixth). Park Factors do no favors for Tampa Bay, but considering all of these other factors, I’m here for all the TBR I can get this week.

Luke Raley (31% Yahoo, 10% ESPN, 58% Fantrax) has been mentioned in this column before, and I’m coming back for more. The first base/outfield option owns right-hand pitching and has hits in five of his previous six games, including two multi-hit affairs and six extra-base hits. Looking back further, in 12 games since 5/22, Raley is hitting .286 with eight XBH, 13 runs scored and three stolen bases. He’s also managing a 55% hard-hit rate, an average exit velocity of 93.2 MPH, and a walk rate of 14%. He’ll sit against fellow lefties (only 14 ABs vs. LHP this season), but luckily the Rays will face five righties in their seven games. Luis Medina followed opener Sam Moll last time out. OAK may employ the same tactic to keep Wander Franco in the right-hand batter’s box for a further route to first and to face Josh Lowe.

Raley contributes across the board and is a legit fantasy asset in both category and point leagues. Week 12 is #RaleyWeek!

Quick Hitters…

• BOS (COL – 3, NYY – 3): The Red Sox will face five righties in their six games. Fenway Park is No. 2 in Overall Statcast Park Factor (112), behind Coors Field (115).
• MIN (MIL – 2, DET – 4): Target Field is No. 9 in SPF (102). 
• PHI (@ARI – 4, @OAK – 3): Decent pitching matchups outside of Merrill Kelly.
• CIN (@KCR – 3, @HOU – 3): Cincy will see five righties in their six games.
• ARI (PHI – 4, CLE – 3): Chase Field is t-13^th in SPF (99). Not where we normally see this ballpark. Business could pick up with six righties in their seven games.
• COL (@BOS – 3, @ATL – 4; 2 L / 5 R): We usually target Colorado hitters while they are in the thin air of Coors Field. However, they play seven games this week in ballparks that are only a slight downgrade. We see above that Fenway Park is No. 2 in SPF. Meanwhile, Truist Park is t-4^th (105), but maybe that’s because the Braves hit so many damn home runs. {Apologies, bitter Mets fan here} All kidding aside, both parks favor Rockies hitters this week.
• ATL (@DET – 3, COL – 4): We see how Truist Park is friendly to the hitters. Also, Comerica Park is on the rise for hitters (more on that below). Atlanta’s offense may be the best in baseball, 1-9, and this is a good week to exploit it. They will face up to six right-hand starters plus suspect bullpens, and all should be meatball pitching matchups with the toughest arms being Michael Lorenzen and Kyle Freeland. . .

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
Continue to go to the Tigers’ well. Detroit (ATL – 3, @MIN – 4) plays seven games this week and sees a right-hand starter in each contest. However, I won’t beat around the bush. The pitching matchups are no bueno. But if you’re in a tough spot, Zach McKinstry (33% Yahoo, 9% ESPN, 58% Fantrax) can be serviceable for middle-infield with a power/speed combo. He hits 55 points higher vs. RHP and has four home runs against them this season. Furthermore, nine of his ten stolen bases come against righties, which makes sense. Finally, Comerica Park is now t-15^th in SPF (98), which isn’t anything to write home about, but Target Field is up to No. 9 (102).

Another option is KCR (CIN – 3, LAA – 3). Kauffman Stadium is t-4th in SPF (105). Additionally, the opposing starters stink – Luke Weaver, Brandon Williamson, Ben Lively, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning and Tyler Anderson.

Places to Avoid

It’s easy to recognize five-game weeks and the notion to stay away. However, it’s hard to pull the ejector seat to the bench for regular starters. This is a necessary evil. Sitting Willy Adames or William Contreras is hard. But allow me to make it easier. Since 5/21, the Brewers’ offense is hitting just .219 with a .668 OPS. That includes the younger Contreras, whereas Adames spent a chunk of that time on the IL. Either way, they’ll face off with Minnesota, who has been pitching extremely well of late, and Pittsburgh will fire Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo in their series. Besides the home runs, Adames has not offered much at the plate. The batting average is a poor .204 (.216 xBA), and he has had a 30.6% K rate since 5/7. Contreras is hitless in seven of his previous 11 games with only 3 XBH. 

Also Avoid…

• On the road this season, the Yankees are hitting just .236. The biggest culprit has been  Anthony Rizzo. He is hitting just .212 on the road and has a total of one hit in June. Let’s be honest; most of their production has been thanks to Aaron Judge^IL. Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Judge (right great toe sprain) is “doing a little bit better” after receiving a PRP injection last week. He did not, however, offer a timetable for a return. 

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 6/10/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers put together an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Spencer Strider¹ (@DET, COL) ⬅️ Due to PPD on 6/13, ATL will utilize Dylan Dodd as the 27^th man for the doubleheader on 6/14 and push rest of staff back a day. Strider would have been on short rest for 6/18 with his start postponed till 6/14.
2. Zack Wheeler¹² (@ARI, @OAK)
3. Logan Webb¹³ (@STL, @LAD)
4. Zach Eflin¹⁹ (@OAK, @SDP)
5. Charlie Morton²⁴ (@DET, COL)
6. Pablo López²⁸ (MIL, DET) ⬅️ MIN will push López to 6/19 vs. BOS for extra rest. Louie Varland (6/18 vs. DET) will remain in the rotation for now with Kenta Maeda tossing one more rehab start on 6/16. This leaves an opening on 6/17.
7. Jesús Luzardo²⁹ (@SEA, @WSH)
8. Hunter Brown³¹ (WSH, CIN) ⬅️ After shifting Ronel Blanco to the pen after a busy stretch of games, HOU will use him as a spot starter on 6/18 to give Brown an extra day of rest after his seven-inning, 99-pitch affair on 6/13.
9. Chris Bassitt³² (@BAL, @TEX)
10. Joe Musgrove³⁶ (CLE, TBR)
11. Jon Gray^DTD (LAA, TOR) ⬅️ Gray is scratched for 6/13 start due to a blister. Cody Bradford will fill-in, and Gray’s next start is TBD, but the team is hopeful he’ll make his against TOR on 6/18. Blister is minor.
12. Tony Gonsolin⁴¹ (CHW, SFG)
13. Luis Severino⁴² (@NYM, @BOS)
14. Tanner Bibee⁴⁷ (@SDP, @ARI)

Other Options: Bryce Miller⁶⁴ (MIA, CHW)*, Lance Lynn⁷⁹ (@LAD, @SEA), Tyler Anderson⁸⁰ (@TEX, @KCR), Dane Dunning⁸⁵ (LAA, TOR), James Paxton⁸⁹ (COL, NYY) POV SPECIAL (See below)

*Miller now has seven days of rest to shake off back-to-back rough outings, albeit vs. NYY & TEX, two formidable foes. Before that, Miller had a 1.15 ERA and still carries a 0.97 WHIP. With easier matchups on the horizon, I say stick with the kid. But he falls under other options until we see a resurgence. So if you have higher-rank options, even if one start, I suggest you take them.

Danger Zone: Matthew Liberatore¹⁰⁰ (SFG, @NYM), Jameson Taillon¹⁰⁷ (PIT, BAL), Zack Greinke¹⁰⁹ (CIN, LAA), Patrick Corbin¹¹⁴ (@HOU, MIA), Zach Davies¹³⁹ (PHI, CLE) POV SPECIAL, Dean Kremer¹⁴⁰ (TOR, @CHC), Luis L. Ortiz¹⁵⁰ (@CHC, @MIL), Yonny Chirinos^NR (@OAK, @SDP) POV SPECIAL, Connor Seabold^NR & Chase Anderson^NR (@BOS, @ATL), James Kaprielian^NR & Hogan Harris^NR (TBR, PHI), Luke Weaver^NR (@KCR, @HOU), Tommy Henry^NR (PHI, CLE), Reese Olson^NR (ATL, @MIN)

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JUNE 12 – 18

*Beware of the back-to-back starts for Domingo Germán⁴⁶ against Boston. He had himself a day in Yankee Stadium vs. Boston last week, but the Red Sox are awful away from Fenway. This time around, the BoSox will be the home team, where they perform much better. Also, Fenway Park is No. 2 in Overall Statcast Park Factor (112), behind Coors Field (115). I never like starting guys vs. the same team within a week because the opposition has his scouting report fresh in their minds. This is especially so when the pitcher did well in the first start and adjustments can be made. UPDATE: MacKenzie Gore moves up to face the ‘Stros in Houston with Jake Irvinbeing pushed back. I would NOT start Gore now.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

This just in…

Yordan Alvarez, Astros – 10-day IL, Right Oblique Discomfort

Alvarez hit the IL on 6/9 with the right side issue. When asked if he thought Alvarez could return shortly after the 10-day window, Astros manager Dusty Baker said, “I’m not really sure, but probably not — that’s a big man with some big muscles to heal.”

Vinnie Pasquantino, Royals – 10-day IL, Right Shoulder Instability (WTF?)

Vinnie P. will undergo an MRI on 6/12 in Kansas City for a “more accurate” diagnosis and timetable. Nick Pratto is the main beneficiary here and is worth an add while we await word.

UPDATE: GRAB PRATTO IMMEDIATELY!

Jake Fraley, Reds – 10-day IL, Right Wrist Contusion (Retro 6/8)

Fraley lands on the IL, and finally, we have some clarity. He was hit by a Caleb Ferguson pitch on 6/6 against the Dodgers. Besides a pitch-running appearance the following night, he has been absent from the lineup since the wrist will not cooperate. TJ Friedl who returns from the IL, takes Fraley’s spot on the active roster and position in the outfield. Will Benson can stand to benefit as well.

Andrés Giménez, Guardians – DTD, Left Leg Tightness

Giménez left the series finale with Houston due to tightness in his left leg. Not much is known at this time, and Cleveland doesn’t play till 6/13, making starting him problematic. Continue to monitor.

Liam Hendriks, White Sox – 15-day IL, Right Elbow Inflammation (Retro 6/10)

Before the series finale vs. Miami, the White Sox placed Hendriks on the IL. The 34-year-old reliever initially thought he was good to go after missing last week’s doubleheader due to the dangerous air quality in the Bronx, caused by smog from Canadian wildfires. He then picked up a win on 6/9, tossing 14 pitches in a clean inning. Turns out, he came out of the start apprehensive instead of his normal aggressive self, which raised a red flag to White Sox manager Pedro Grifol. Fortunately, the White Sox bullpen is equipped to handle the temporary loss. Since 5/13, Chicago relievers have a 2.66 ERA with a .178 opponent average in 27 games. Kendall Graveman should serve as the team’s full-time closer.

Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles – DTD, Illness

Mountcastle remained out of the lineup for the third straight game on 6/11 against the Royals, but Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said the first baseman was taking swings in the batting cage before the game.

Jorge Polanco, Twins – 10-day IL, Left Hamstring Strain (Retro 6/9)

An MRI reveals what doctors determine to be a moderate strain of the left hamstring. It’s déjà vu all over again for Polanco, who returns to the IL and faces a longer absence per the manager. Only ten days ago had Polanco been reinstated after missing 12 games with the same injury. But this time, he is worse for wear. Edouard Julien should serve as the Twins’ primary second baseman.

Medical Updates…

• Julio Urías, Dodgers: Urías threw a bullpen session on 6/8 and is still having some issues with his hammy. He will return to throwing off flat ground and will likely need a rehab start. His return date is uncertain.
• Justin Steele, Cubs: ICYMI, Cubs manager David Ross told Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune that Steele (forearm) is on track to return on 6/17 against the Orioles. You’ll find him in this week’s rankings based on his side session in preparation. He’s low for someone with a 2.65 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 58:16 K:BB, but we wanna make sure he’s good, and he will likely be eased back into action. He’ll rise up the ranks for Week 13 if all checks out. 
• Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins: Chisholm (turf toe) saw a foot specialist and got a positive report. He started baseball activities, including hitting in the cage and taking ground balls. Also, Chisholm began toe exercises and plyometric activities.
• Pete Fairbanks, Rays: Fairbanks (left hip inflammation) threw a light side session on 6/11 and is on track to face hitters in Sarasota, Fla., on 6/12, the day he is eligible to come off the IL. If all goes well, Fairbanks could rejoin the team during its upcoming seven-game road trip, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. 

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ James Paxton⁸⁹, LH BOS (COL, NYY; 42% rostered in Yahoo, 16% in ESPN, 73% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Don’t look now, but Paxton has been really good besides a rough outing in Anaheim on 5/24. He gave up two home runs in that game but none since. He’s also piling up the strikeouts with 36 in 26 IP (33% K rate, 31.1% CSW). His ERA stands at 3.81, and in his last two starts, it’s 2.25 with a 1.08 WHIP. Cincinnati and Cleveland are not world-beaters on offense, but the Reds are t-9^th in runs scored on the season with the Yankees. Meanwhile, the Guardians have scored the eighth-most runs in the last two weeks. But they only put up two on Paxton in seven innings.

This week, there is no better matchup than the Rockies on the road in their first series, and the Yankees are just not scary without Judge. So I will be riding with Paxton in almost every format. His underlining metrics suggest that his fine pitching will continue. He has a 3.54 FIP (3.42 xFIP), 3.29 SIERA and 3.98 xERA. It has only been 26 IP, so we take this with a grain of salt. Plus, there are some warts: 48.4% fly-ball rate and Fenway’s strong hitting park factors. If you need another arm this week, I say let’s go for it.

Honorable Mention: Zach Davies¹³⁹, RH ARI (PHI, CLE; 2% rostered in Yahoo, 1% in ESPN, 18% in Fantrax Dynasty), Yonny Chirinos^NR, RH TBR (@OAK, @SDP; 1% rostered in Yahoo, 1% in ESPN, 21% in Fantrax Dynasty)

One-Start Pitcher: Braxton Garrett⁷⁰, LH MIA (@WSH; 30% rostered in Yahoo, 11% in ESPN, 71% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Is it cheating if I mentioned him in this space last week? You know what, I don’t care. When I selected Garrett last week, I had plans to continue the stream into Week 12. He surprisingly struggled against the Royals at home but came back strong with a solid performance against the Pale Hose on 6/11 (5.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K). Garrett has a 3.23 xFIP and a 31.9% CSW to go along with a 47.7% groundball rate. He should be able to induce grounders and whiffs with his slider and sinker. The Nats are top-10 in groundball rate at 42.6% for the last 30 days. 

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!