MLB Weekly Preview: 6/19 – 6/25

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY!

NOTES: For the second time in four weeks, STL will have two consecutive off days. After never seeing a schedule quite like this, we’ve now had it happen four times this season (STL x2, KCR, CHC this week too due to the London Series). The Cards and Cubs join the Orioles, Angels and Dodgers in five-game weeks (see matchups below). With this many teams drawing the short end of the stick, we may have to bite the bullet and start some five-gamers. On the other end of the spectrum, nine clubs will see seven games (six in the NL). This leaves us with 16 teams playing six contests. Furthermore, the majority of home parks this week have overall Statcast park factors that favor pitching. Considering all of this, we need to be diligent in starting our hitters while not freaking out if our offenses have a down week.

Five-Game Week: BAL (@TBR – 2, SEA – 3), LAA (LAD – 2, @COL – 3), STL (@WSH – 3, CHC – 2), CHC (@PIT – 3, @STL – 2), LAD (@LAA – 2, HOU – 3)

A Few Areas to Target

This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

Golden God of Cincinnati
The Cincinnati Reds (COL – 3, ATL – 3) are surging and only a half-game back of the NL Central-leading Brewers as of 6/17. In no coincidence, their meteoric rise coincides with the call-up of rookie phenom Elly De La Cruz. EDLC & Co. may only play six games this week, but they are all at home. Great American Ball Park is t-8^th in Statcast’s Park Factor (102). Furthermore, they begin the week facing the Rockies (like them too!), and Colorado’s pitching has given up 44 home runs (seventh most), has a 4.54 ERA (10th worst), and is 24^th in the league in strikeouts on the road this season. We should continue to take advantage of their hurt pitching staff. On the other hand, Atlanta has been great, but Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton are hittable, especially at GABP. 

After beginning his MLB career like a golden god, EDLC cooled off a touch. If anything can get him back to sizzling hot, it’s an entire week’s worth of games at home. He’s seen his share of struggles against lefties thus far, but it’s only a 12-at-bat sample size. CIN will face two Southpaws this week, so something to consider, but I wouldn’t read too much into it. EDLC is sporting a 10.5% barrel rate, 92 MPH average exit velocity and 100^th percentile sprint speed. So there are many ways he can hurt the opposition and benefit your fantasy team. He should feast on the Rockies’ pitching staff this week. So should Spencer Steer. He’s been hot, hitting .292 with 19 XBH, 28 RBI, a 10% walk rate, and a strikeout rate of just 15.2% since 5/1. Also, Steer hits righties and lefties equally well.

Quick Hitters…

• BOS (@MIN – 4, @CHW – 3): Boston will face at least six RHPs.
• KCR (@DET – 3, @TBR – 4): Royal hitters will see five righties, including Yonny Chirinos, who may or may not follow an opener. 
• CHW (TEX – 3, BOS – 3): Guaranteed Rate Field is t-6^th in SPF (103) and has a 116 HR PF. Also, the Pale Hose will face up to three lefties, which is great for the heart of their order.
• MIN (BOS – 4, @DET – 3): Target Field is t-8^th in SPF with GABP and Angel Stadium (102), while Comerica Park is t-11^th in SPF (101).
• MIA (TOR – 3, PIT – 4): Marlins will see six RHPs this week… Luis Arraez ?
• PIT (CHC – 3, @MIA – 4): With three lefties on the docket, it’s a good week to stream Andrew McCutchen (39% rostered in Yahoo, 25% in ESPN, 82% in Fantrax Dynasty), Ke’Bryan Hayes (59% Yahoo, 21% ESPN, 91% Fantrax) or Connor Joe (7% Yahoo, 5% ESPN, 34% Fantrax) in deeper leagues.
• SFG (SDP – 4, ARI – 3): San Fran will face six righties to one lefty this week. PLATOON ATTACK!
• SDP (@SFG – 4, WSH – 3): Friars get four lefties this week, including Sean Manaea in a bulk relief role.
• COL (@CIN – 3, LAA – 3): Gorgeous SPF with GABP plus Coors Field – 1^st SPF (114). Colorado will see four LHPs, which makes Randal Grichuk (8% rostered in Yahoo, 4% in ESPN, 46% in Fantrax Dynasty) extremely viable.   

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
There are also options in Washington (STL – 3, ARI – 1, @SDP – 3) and Arizona (@MIL – 3, @WSH – 1, @SFG – 3). The Nats get a seven-game week thanks to the make-up game against the D-backs from 6/8. It will be a mutual day off only the Nats get to remain at home for the make-up before shuffling off to San Diego, while the D-backs will travel from Milwaukee to our Nation’s Capital and then to San Francisco. Can you say frequent flyer miles? This is why MLB has been more steadfast in making up games while the teams are still in town – to avoid awful travel situations like this. Head-to-head league managers enjoy this aspect. It’s good to be correct. 

Lane Thomas (70% rostered in Yahoo, 24% in ESPN, 92% in Fantrax Dynasty) is the Nats’ hottest hitter for the last month with a .298 BA (104 AB), 17 XBH, 5 HR, 14 RBI and two stolen bags. Great week to play Thomas. But if he is already rostered in your league, I also like Luis García (18% Yahoo, 12% ESPN, 65% Fantrax) and Dominic Smith (1% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 19% Fantrax) due to the opposing pitcher handedness (2 L / 5 R). Also, in the previous 30 days, García is hitting .315 (92 AB), and Smith has three multi-hit games in his last four games. 

As for the D-backs, who is hotter than Corbin Carroll right now? The answer is nobody. He’s hitting .354 (99 AB) with 19 XBH, 9 HR, 24 RBI and nine stolen bags over the previous 30 days. Well, he gets seven right-hand starting pitchers this week. Delicious! Joining Carroll’s dinner party will be Pavin Smith (1% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 14% Fantrax) and Jake McCarthy (54% Yahoo, 20% ESPN, 78% Fantrax).

Places to Avoid

My Mets (@HOU – 3, @PHI – 3) have been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments this season. Facing Houston and Philly on the road doesn’t inspire the confidence that things will change much. Their three-game set against Houston lines them up to face Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier. All of which excel pitching at home. And things don’t get prettier in Philadelphia. They will face old friend Zach Wheeler and two lefties in Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez (health-permitting). Wheeler has given up just one earned run in his previous two starts with an impressive 7.5 K/BB. Southpaws have been New York’s kryptonite. Including Valdez, the Mets will see three this week. Jeff McNeil is struggling against lefties, slashing .246/.373/.290. Yet, the struggles don’t end there. In June, he’s hitting .213 with three extra-base hits and four RBI. I would sit the 2022 NL batting champion.

With the three lefty starters, you may be tempted to start Starling Marte. Not so fast! Marte has been a culprit in the Mets’ disappointing season. In 2022, he displayed 20/20 upside with a .292 BA, but the power has dried up this year with just three log flies and 10 XBH (251 PA). His only value has been stolen bases with 19, but with swipes more abundantly found, it’s hard to maintain an argument for rostering him, let alone starting him. Marte’s average is down 36 points from last year, and his walk rate is 5.6%. Unless he finds a way to get on base more, it will be difficult to maintain his stolen base production.

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 6/17/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers put together an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Gerrit Cole² (SEA, TEX)
2. Spencer Strider⁶ (@PHI, @CIN) ⬅️ Two weeks in a row? Really?? Another PPD (this time with a 9/11 makeup date) removes Strider’s second start. Furthermore, ATL will restructure their rotation. Elder will now pitch 6/22 @PHI. AJSS gets pushed to 6/23 @CIN. Shuster will also be pushed (6/24), and Morton will pitch on 6/25.
3. Corbin Burnes¹² (ARI, @CLE)
4. Nathan Eovaldi¹³ (@CHW, @NYY)
5. George Kirby¹⁷ (@NYY, @BAL)
6. Merrill Kelly¹⁸ (@MIL, @SFG)
7. Marcus Stroman¹⁹ (@PIT, @STL) ⬅️ Stroman will pitch the second game of the London Series.
8. Max Scherzer²⁴ (@HOU, @PHI)
9. Tyler Glasnow²⁶ (BAL, KCR)
10. José Berríos²⁸ (@MIA, OAK)
11. Pablo López²⁹ (BOS, @DET)
12. Hunter Brown³⁰ (NYM, @LAD)
13. Dylan Cease³⁵ (TEX, BOS) ⬅️ Cease is listed as 6/26 starter. Click here for the latest.
14. Clayton Kershaw³⁸ (@LAA, HOU) ⬅️ LAD uses BPG to maintain five-man.
15. Bailey Ober⁴¹ (BOS, @DET)*
16. Eury Pérez⁵⁸ (TOR, PIT)
17. Michael Wacha^DTD (@SFG, WSH) ⬅️ Wacha is skipped due to shoulder fatigue. He should make his next turn on 6/30 @CIN.

*Kenta Maeda¹⁰⁵ returns on 6/23 @DET (six days’ rest), while Louie Varland heads to Triple A. Ober will keep his second start.

Other Options: James Paxton⁶⁵ (@MIN, @CHW) POV SPECIAL, Kyle Bradish⁶⁸ (@TBR, SEA), Ranger Suárez⁷⁰ (ATL, NYM), Josiah Gray⁷³ (STL, @SDP), Anthony DeSclafani⁷⁴ (SDP, ARI), MacKenzie Gore⁷⁵ (STL, @SDP), Michael Lorenzen⁷⁶ (KCR, MIN), Aaron Civale¹¹⁷ (OAK, MIL) POV SPECIAL, Johan Oviedo¹¹⁹ (CHC, @MIA) POV SPECIAL, Yusei Kikuchi¹²⁰ (@MIA, OAK)

*Suárez loses second start due to 6/21 PPD vs. ATL. Also, high likelihood that Bradish gets a second start with BAL going to four-man for short week and instead pitching Cole Irvin in long relief (Irvin can insert back into rotation on 6/27).

Danger Zone: Osvaldo Bido^NR (CHC, @MIA), Luis Medina^NR (@CLE, @TOR), Jordan Lyles^NR & Daniel Lynch^NR (@DET, @TBR), Kutter Crawford^NR (@MIN, @CHW), Austin Gomber^NR (@CIN, LAA), Ben Lively^NR (COL, ATL), Reese Olson^NR (KCR, MIN), Ryne Nelson^NR (@MIL, @SFG)*, Seth Lugo^NR/IL (@SFG, WSH)*

*ARI could replace an ineffective Nelson with either Drey Jameson (2.1 IP, 35 PIT following Nelson in his last start) or Brandon Pfaadt (surging at Triple-A in last three starts: 12.2 IP, 13 H, 5 R, 1 HR, 4 BB & 15 K – 10 K last start). Pfaadt may have figured out his arm slot issue! UPDATE: Nelson is safe for this week.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JUNE 19 – 25

“MUST-SEE TV!”

New York Mets @ Houston Astros
Tuesday, June 20 – 7:10 PM CT
Justin Verlander vs. Framber Valdez
Teacher vs. Student ?☯️?

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

This just in…

Alex Cobb, Giants – 15-day IL, Left Oblique Strain (Retro 6/15)

You can omit Cobb from the ranks above. Once thought to be hip tightness, he has labored through the past two starts. It’s a tough break for the Giants’ rotation, as he goes down one day after Alex Wood was activated from his second IL stint of the season. They’re also down Ross Stripling, who has been out since May 18 with a lower back strain. Due to their precarious starting situation, the Giants have already needed to regularly utilize bullpen games. Cobb has posted a 3.09 ERA and a 138 ERA+ in 14 starts this season.

Tim Anderson, White Sox – DTD, Shoulder

Anderson left his game against the Mariners on 6/17 in the fourth inning due to right shoulder soreness and was not in the lineup for the series finale. Elvis Andrus slid over to short, while Zach Remillard (available everywhere for a deeeeeep league streamer) started at the keystone and batted second. 

Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays – DTD, Left Hand Laceration/Contusion

Kirk took a 95.6 mph fastball from Jon Gray off his left hand/wrist area near the knob of his bat in the second inning of the series finale against the Rangers. Danny Jansen entered the game to replace Kirk after Kirk spent a couple of minutes speaking with the trainer. However, X-rays were negative. If Kirk were to miss time, Jansen (16% Yahoo, 14% ESPN, 42% Fantrax) would benefit and be a must-add. Although, with the injury to Kirk’s non-throwing hand, any absence will depend on pain tolerance and ability to grip the bat.

Tanner Houck, Red Sox – 15-day IL, Facial Fracture (Retro 6/17)

Houck suffered a facial fracture after he was struck in the face just under his right eye on a line drive by Yankees catcher Kyle Higashioka. Red Sox manager Alex Cora said the medical staff hadn’t determined yet if the righty will need surgery. Houck is set to have follow-up appointments this week to determine the next steps and a treatment plan.

Triston McKenzie, Guardians – 15-day IL, Right Elbow Sprain (Retro 6/14)

McKenzie was scratched from his start on 6/16 with right elbow discomfort. He underwent an MRI that revealed right elbow inflammation. According to Guardians manager Terry Francona, the inflammation “means the UCL is involved.” If so, we could be talking about Tommy John surgery. There is no timetable as of 6/17. I put a lot of stock in this kid but instead should have heeded Ray’s warnings of frailty. In either event, read the article link. If anything, the quotes from Tito are fantastic. Cleveland adds Daniel Norris to the active roster from Triple-A Columbus, and he is an option to start (nine starts with Columbus this year).

Edward Cabrera, Marlins – 15-day IL, Right Shoulder Impingement (Retro 6/14)

Cabrera began feeling shoulder discomfort after his 6/13 start against Seattle and felt it again during a between-start bullpen session on 6/16. He becomes the third member of the Marlins’ rotation on the injured list, along with Johnny Cueto and Trevor Rogers, who I swear has fallen into a black hole. None of us on Twitter can get any clarity. Right-handed reliever Huascar Brazoban was recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville in a corresponding move, but the Marlins might need to make an additional move to plug the hole in their rotation. However, a short-term fix could be longman Bryan Hoeing, who last threw on 6/12 (34 pitches) and could start in Cabrera’s stead on 6/19.

Medical Updates…

• Pete Alonso, Mets: ICYMI, Alonso was reinstated from the IL on 6/18 after suffering a bone bruise and sprain in his left wrist from an HBP on 6/7. This was a much quicker return than expected for Alonso, who was initially projected to miss 3-4 weeks. He was in the starting lineup for the series finale against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, José Quintana (60-day IL, rib cage stress fracture) started his rehab assignment on 6/13 with Low-A St. Lucie (1.1 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 26 PIT). He also made his second rehab on 6/18 (3.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 46 PIT / 30 STK). Team officials state that Quintana needs to reach five innings before activation. He should make at least two more rehab starts, aiming for a return around the All-Star break.
• Aaron Judge, Yankees: Judge (right great toe sprain) received a second platelet-rich plasma injection on 6/15, intended to address discomfort in a second ligament near his right big toe. Judge’s timetable remains unclear, as the club hesitates to lock in an expected date until Judge can resume baseball activities. In other Yankee news, Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes are working their way back. Rodón (left elbow strain, back stiffness) is scheduled to begin a Minor League rehab assignment on 6/20 for Double-A Somerset. It is estimated that Rodón will need three rehab starts before being activated. Yanks are aiming for an early July return. Cortes (left rotator cuff strain) resumed playing catch on 6/18 at Boston. Cortes has been on the IL since 6/8.
• Eduardo Rodriguez, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning, Tigers: Rodriguez (left index finger pulley rupture) threw a bullpen session on 6/16. Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said the left-hander is making progress, but there is no firm timetable. The hope is a mid-July return. Skubal (flexor tendon surgery recovery) is much further along and a primetime stash candidate! He tossed three scoreless innings on one hit with five strikeouts (31 pitches) on 6/15 for Triple-A Toledo. He will make his next rehab start for Toledo on 6/21. One to two more rehab starts, and he could be back with the big club by the first week in July. Manning (fractured right foot) allowed one unearned run over three-plus innings in a rehab start for Toledo on 6/16. He will make another rehab start next week, presumably for Toledo. He is eligible for activation on 6/28.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ James Paxton⁶⁵, LH BOS (@MIN, @CHW; 59% rostered in Yahoo, 29% in ESPN, 79% in Fantrax Dynasty) – We were robbed of Paxton’s two starts last week, but I like these matchups better due to positive park shifts. White Sox can knock around lefties, but I’m not scared. Are you? In the last month, Paxton owns a 3.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP with 35 strikeouts in 27 IP. The underlying metrics agree with the surface production: 3.57 xERA, 3.09 FIP and 3.18 xFIP. In 2017’s career year, he owned a 2.98 ERA with a 10.32 K/9 and a 2.45 BB/9. Right now, he has a 12.38 K/9 and a 2.81 BB/9. Furthermore, his SIERA of 3.13 is lower than the 2017 SIERA of 3.45. Smaller sample and some regression will occur, but not this week!

FWIW, Paxton did handle the Rockies in his lone start last week. He fired six innings, giving up only four hits and one unearned run with one walk and eight punchies. As a result, his rostership has risen. For more, read last week’s notes. 

Honorable Mention: Aaron Civale¹¹⁷, RH CLE (OAK, MIL; 32% Yahoo, 14% ESPN, 78% Fantrax), Johan Oviedo¹¹⁹, RH PIT (CHC, @MIA; 20% Yahoo, 13% ESPN, 61% Fantrax) – Civale’s upside isn’t high due to low strikeout numbers and inability to miss bats (19.5% K rate, 7.7% Swinging-strike percentage – SwStr%). However, there is some positive regression in store here for Civale. His 27.7% Called + swinging strike percentage (CSW%) is .06 higher than his career mark. I believe the PR begins this week. He has a sweet set of matchups vs. a terrible Oakland team and an inconsistent Brewers Offense. Plus, Civale is good for the ratios. As for Oviedo, he’s been doing a fantastic job of attacking the zone. He has been inconsistent, but I like these matchups for him this week.

One-Start Pitcher: Andrew Abbott⁸⁵, LH CIN (COL; 61% Yahoo, 30% ESPN, 70% Fantrax), Wade Miley⁸⁷, LH MIL (@CLE; 24% Yahoo, 10% ESPN, 55% Fantrax) – I’m throwing two one-start pitchers out there in case the hot new thing Abbott isn’t available in your league. But, if he is, swoop! We have been successful in attacking the Rockies while they are away from Coors. Let’s continue to do so while they are minus C.J. Cron and Kris Bryant. Great American Ball Park isn’t all that better than Coors Field (see ‘A Few Areas to Target’), but it’s enough of a park factor difference to take a swing on the 24-year-old rookie pitcher. In Abbott’s three MLB outings, he has two quality starts, including his latest gem against the Mighty Astros (6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K).

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!