Fantasy Football Scoring Dependency

“Remember, the goal is to predict what we think will happen. This exercise aims to highlight players we expect to regress to their mean scoring performance based on their performance last year. Coaching changes, personnel changes, and injuries are all things that will impact the upcoming season. Still, if we can target the right kinds of players, who we expect to see significant workloads, thereby allowing us to gain a competitive edge, we are on the right path.” Rich Maletto examines previous scoring by a player and similar players in that specific scheme. Together, we’ll delve into the specifics of a player’s fantasy football points, dissecting the scoring categories in which they excel. Are they prolific touchdown scorers with a high touchdown rate? Does their high average depth of target explain a low catch rate? Is this running back a key player in the passing game? Projections can only answer some of these questions, but the more we understand, the more we can strategize…

Rich Maletto

June 13, 2025

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