A review of Fantasy Baseball ADP and 2021 resulting production
ADP is the Average Draft Position for players in fantasy baseball drafts. While a useful draft prep tool for understanding how players are valued, we here at Fantasy Guru preach consideration for the entire build of a player and not to be married to ADP alone. My mission for this draft guide article is to create a larger picture of players and see how this matched up with the ADP leading into the 2021 season. We will utilize consensus draft values across the most popular league hosts – ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, RT Sports, NFBC and Fantrax. Rankings will be ordered based on their Fantasy Production (FP). FP is an arbitrary statistic I developed which measures the key facets of each respective type of player. Or, at least, what I find key.
Hitters: ISO + wOBA + BB/K = FP
BEST OF THE TOP 100
Juan Soto tops our list of Fantasy Production thanks to his stellar walk/strikeout rate and second-best wOBA. His ISO is tied for 37th on our list yet is still a good number. On average, Ronald Acuña Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mookie Betts were selected before Soto. However, the closest man to his fantasy production was Betts… seven spots lower. I’m grateful Soto was on last year’s Wish List.
Fellow MVP candidate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., falls two rungs below Soto, mostly due to the power display the young man, well, displayed. Despite his 0.78 BB/K (still a good number), he took a more selective approach at the plate than we have seen. As a result, his wOBA fell one one-thousandth below Soto. While this discipline was difficult to foresee, his 49.2 2021 ADP was borderline insulting. Much like Michael Jordan, he took it personally. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. NL MVP Bryce Harper falls just below Vlad, and no one was hotter in the second half of the season. I’d expect that 17.2 ADP to rise back to his Washington National days.
Did you expect a catcher to be sandwiched in between Soto and Vlad? No, I didn’t either. But that is exactly where we find Yasmani Grandal. What a bloody season for the backstop, who drew a high ADP of 125.6, much in part to his position. While I don’t expect a repeat performance, it’s also not out of the realm of possibility.
Third baseman José Ramírez did not disappoint those who selected him late in the first round. His 1.474 FP is fifth on our list; not a big shock. Will Ramírez remain in Cleveland or travel north of the border to Toronto as a replacement for another MVP candidate, Marcus Semien? If the latter occurs, imagine what the 29-year-old will be capable of in that lineup for 2022! Great, I just went from six to midnight…
First basemen Pete Alonso (46 Consensus ADP/1.090 FP), Paul Goldschmidt (70.4/1.084) and Rhys Hoskins (139.2/1.087) were all within .006 of each other in terms of Fantasy Production. And if you waited a little longer for your first baseman, Matt Olson (83/1.428) was awesome! As some of our returning subscribers may know, I have a man-crush for Olson and that wily swing of his. First base is a deep position, but many didn’t wanna wait and grabbed Freddie Freeman. Not a bad play as Freeman delivered the goods. But do you know who else delivered the goods at first? Yup, you guessed it… Mr. Max Muncy. Three M is just below Freeman yet fell to 94.8 ADP and is eligible at first and second base. A quick peek at current NFBC ADP shows Muncy at 136.91. Tsk, tsk, tsk.
Many the fantasy owner, along with the New York Mets, have given up on Michael Conforto. Yet, his 2021 FP lies between Brandon Lowe and José Abreu, and his 2021 ADP was 4.2 lower than Lowe’s and 32.8 spots lower than Abreu. His 2022 value will further depreciate based on perception (and an undeniable lack of consistency). However, a fresh start outside of the bright lights of New York could easily result in a return to his 2019 form (33 HR, 92 RBI, .257/.363/.494).
There was no greater return on investment than the reigning AL MVP, Shohei Ohtani. On average, Shohei was the 100th hitter selected in 2021 drafts (not factoring in leagues where he also qualifies as a pitcher). Yet, to the surprise of no one, the Japanese sensation was the 15th-highest fantasy performer at the dish. We won’t get this same return for 2022, as his ADP will skyrocket. Side note: I play ‘Captain Obvious’ at my local community theater. Oh, by the way in case you were wondering, Ohtani had the 24th-best FP as a pitcher. Wow!
WORST OF THE TOP 100
There is no finer example of how ADP does not equate to fantasy production than the dumpster fire of a season Cody Bellinger had. He made amends in the postseason, which did bupkis for fantasy managers.
Keston Hiura is a bum and a thief of our draft capital… Next.
Tim Anderson is a confounder of this exercise. At 45.6, most fantasy owners were pleased with his production: .309 BA, 163 H, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 18 SB. With great numbers from the shortstop position, Anderson filled the stat sheet nicely. Yet, when compared to the top 100 hitters overall, his fantasy production ranked fourth-worst (0.684). Much of this has to do with a propensity to strike out when not being productive (119 SO) and taking very few walks (22). Wouldn’t you prefer Dansby Swanson roughly 60 spots lower (.248 BA, 146 H, 27 HR, 88 RBI, 9 SB; 0.833 FP)?
Alec Bohm and Dom Smith were big “swing & misses” in later rounds of drafts. In the latter’s case, consistent playing time may have been the culprit in Smith never really getting into the swing of things. A Universal DH could solve this issue, but Smith will still need to work harder to recapture his 2019/2020 magic.
However, with the prior, Bohm had every chance to run away with the Phillies’ third-base job. Yet, he failed miserably and was sent packing to the minors for more seasoning. This was surprising. In 2020, he hit .338/.400/.481 with a 137 OPS+ in 44 games, finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. I had an even better value when drafting Bohm 126 overall, but I was left pissing in the wind along with several Philadelphia fans. We should all get better value this season on the former No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft. The Phillies should ride with Bohm and hope he produces in 2022, as should we in fantasy.
By now, we should all be aware of what we get with the new Detroit Tigers shortstop, Javier Báez – prestigious home runs and wild whiffs. Both the ISO & wOBA were nice in 2021; his BB/K were not. He should not be drafted as starkly ahead of Swanson, but you know he will be. Don’t be that guy.
Lastly, Victor Robles and Ke’Bryan Hayes were late-round misses, mostly due to limited playing time because of injury. I would go back to the well with Hayes. In the truncated 2020 season, he looked like He-Man (Did I use the correct pronoun? What has the world come to?). After hitting .376 with a 1.124 OPS, Hayes did not sniff those numbers in 2021. That’s not the caliber of hitter he is, but I’ll take the regression to more of his career numbers at his draft position (144.07 NFBC ADP). Just be aware, the Buccos do have a “Plan B” for third base.
Pitchers: ERA + ABA + SIERA = FP
BEST OF THE TOP 60
Jacob deGrom only pitched 92 innings due to injury and Mets medical staff foolishness, so his status on this list is fugazi, at least for 2021. “Can he replicate his elite start?” will be the question. In comparison, deGrom’s new rotation mate, Max Scherzer, pitched 87 more innings. Tyler Glasnow only pitched 88 innings before going down to a partially torn UCL. He was heading for awesome draft day returns and is likely out until 2023. However, I’m sure he’s singing, “Don’t You Forget About Me.” And speaking of low innings, Stephen Strasburg has pitched a whopping 26.2 innings in the last two seasons. That’s 80 outs, 118 batters faced and 447 pitches. Stras will turn 34 this upcoming season, so he does have time to salvage his career. But the clock is ticking, and my investment wishes have worn thin.
As we all know, Corbin Burnes (57.6 Consensus ADP / 6.24 FP) won the 2021 NL Cy Young award in a razor-thin vote. It was the closest NL vote since Cy Young Award balloting expanded to five pitchers in 2010. Burnes’ 167.0 innings were the fewest for a starting pitcher who won a Cy Young Award in a full season, replacing 2018 AL winner Blake Snell’s 180.2 innings. Zack Wheeler (88.0 Consensus ADP / 7.36 FP), meanwhile, led all of baseball with 213.1 innings, or 46.1 innings more than Burnes. Wheeler’s ERA was a sparkling 2.78, but Burnes came in under this mark as well as overall fantasy production. I can see the argument made by analysts across the country, including our own Ray Flowers. But in the end, I’m a Burnes mark, and the numbers here prove they got it right.
However, who was the better draft day value? The answer here is much more clear. And this is what we are focusing on as we prepare for 2022 drafts. Burnes’ rotation mate, Brandon Woodruff, went before both of these arms yet had FP between them. All of this further substantiates how waiting on pitching is the right idea.
Don’t believe me yet? Well, Julio Urías (117.8 Consensus ADP) had an 8.10 FP, merely 0.14 higher than Lance Lynn (51.2 Consensus ADP) and 0.32 higher than Gerrit Cole (7.2 Consensus ADP). In fact, Cole and Kevin Gausman had the same 2021 FP (7.78) yet very different draft spots (Gausman = 137.4!). And how impressive was Frankie Montas in 2021? So much so, he falls between Lance McCullers Jr. and Lucas Giolito in terms of FP! ? However, Frankie’s teammate, my dude CBass aka Chris Bassitt, was even better. If he hadn’t gotten plunked in the face, I contend CBass would have finished top-5 in the AL Cy Young race.
When it comes to the pen, many fantasy managers exhaust a fifth-round pick on the likes of Josh Hader or Liam Hendricks. Yet, three rounds later, you could have had Raisel Iglesias, who posted similar FP. Hell, Hader’s fellow pen dweller, Devin Williams, comes in eighth place for FP, only six spots lower than Hader. The difference in FP is stark, as was the draft-day cost. What does Milauwakee put in the water? Must be beer… funny, I always thought it was the other way around. Furthermore, Brad Hand’s 2021 Consensus ADP was 106. Ryan Pressly’s was 107. Did you make the right decision?
Finally, Kenley Jansen was practically left for dead in the 113’s after years of dominance yet posted the sixth-highest FP of all relievers in 2021.
WORST OF THE TOP 60
Good Lord, was Jesús Luzardo bad in 2021! His 13.91 FP was 1.01 higher than the next worst arm, Dylan Bundy (he stunk too). You’ll have to ask yourself, do young star prospects just lose it like that? We have seen it before.
Cookie could not get it together for his new team last season, as Carrasco posted the third-worst FP of the top 60 pitchers drafted. Injuries and a new city are likely culprits here, but so was his hideous location, a skill he relies on and had previously mastered. Once Carlos finally made it to the mound, I regularly ranked him in my top 90 starting pitchers for the MLB Weekly Preview based on who I’ve known him to be. However, this was a misstep by this author as the performance illustrates. I did correctly remove Patrick Corbin and Kyle Hendricks, who both had down years. My high shares of these three arms as fourth or fifth pitchers on my fantasy squads cost me several leagues despite the low cost.
Kenta Maeda was the Cody Bellinger of mound mavens. We probably won’t see him till 2023, but something tells me I won’t be able to quit him. I’ll need someone to hold me back… you guys got me? PLEASE! I need help. Maybe grabbing him 150 or later will be my Methadone.
Overall, after studying each chart, we see yet further proof of why it is important to wait on pitching. I realize I already typed this notion in a slightly different worded way, but realize, I am trying to beat it into my head as well as yours for our 2022 drafts. You may also be thinking to yourself, “Well, all this information is great for WHAT HAPPENED, but WHAT WILL HAPPEN for 2022?” Part II of this article compares current NFBC ADP for 2022 to their Steamer projections in all the above statistics.
