In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
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Finish Strong
The end of every fantasy baseball season always makes me feel sentimental. If you are still with us and reading this, congratulations on making it to the very end. That is an accomplishment unto itself. However, the work is not done. I posted the following story you are about to read (or skip over to get the goods) in last season’s finale. I wanted to share it again for the new subscribers this year and as a reminder to those who have been with us for a while.
So, the story… coaches from the youth level on up can, and often do, shape a person into who they become in life. Instilling fundamental moral principles and motivations while instructing the game they love. If you ever played a sport, you know exactly what I mean. Two stand out for me: my high school strength & conditioning coach, John Mckenna, and my college baseball coach, Fred Hill. Unfortunately, both of these great men are no longer with us, but their legacy lives on in all of their athletes. What did the two have in common? Coincidentally enough, both had the same mantra which was often repeated at practices, scrimmages, games, seasons, etc. “Start Strong, Finish Strong!”
These words have carried me through A LOT in life. Every time I feel weak, weary or overwhelmed, I repeat these words in my head. Matter of fact, I’m reciting them as I type these words for the final MLB weekly preview. I repeat them when I’m up at 3:24 am ET updating pitching matchups. The mantra inspires me to be my very best. No matter what, being at my best – reaching my max potentiality – makes me feel like a winner. And what do winners do? They fucking win!
This brings me to the point. It is time to FINISH STRONG. We braved the elements, handled the postponements, and dealt with the doubleheaders. We shuffled our rosters when players were suddenly unavailable. Now is not the time to stray from the mission and deviate off course. The title of champion remains the same, and the color of money stays true. Don’t let the NFL get your eye off the prize! You worked hard this season, under challenging circumstances, and now is the time to finish as strong as you started to lock up that championship. Fuck your Week 4 lineups… let’s gooooooooo!
The most important area of concentration this final week will lay upon starting pitching. We need to be on top of our SPs’ schedule (see the bottom portion of linked article for up-to-date news) till the very last second before the weekly lock of 1:10 PM ET when the White Sox battle the Tigers. Or, if you participate in daily leagues or those hybrids which offer bi-weekly pitching moves, it will be necessary to keep tabs on teams who clinch a playoff spot. As we saw last week, scheduled starts will be shuffled around or even scratched to properly lineup rotations for said teams’ playoff run. Plan accordingly, and hopefully, my last breakdown of 2021 will help you do just that.
As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team you would like me to cover, drop a line in our VIP Chat Room or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.
MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: Besides the points made above, most teams play six games to conclude the regular season. We’ll discuss the teams with seven-game weeks in Areas to Target. Marlins are at the Mets for what is (hopefully) our last doubleheader of the season on 9/28. Barring any PPDs, no more seven-inning games!
A Few Areas to Target
I Coulda Been a Contender
In a year and change, the Blue Jays have spent many nights away from home. It’s only fitting they finish the year with a six-game homestand at the Rogers Centre. A matchup with the Bronx Bombers early in the week – a team they directly trail in the Wild Card standings – lies in must-win territory and will necessitate the Jays’ A-lineup and their A-effort. Exploit this as well as other contending situations.
Home of the Brave
Braves are in the warm confines of Truist Park for all six of their games to finish the regular season. We all know how the ball flies in the heat and humidity this time of year. Furthermore, they are in a dogfight with the Phillies for the NL East crown, and the two square off to begin the week. Target both teams’ hitters, as they will be fantasy relevant to the very end of the season… but when will that end be for Atlanta? Remember the COL @ ATL postponement from 9/16? Well, it was never rescheduled, as it looked like the game would have no bearing on the standings. But if this game does indeed matter, your Brave & Rockie hitters will get a bonus “Game 163!” (See how your league rules will handle this possibility.)
Back to the Braves, they also are facing all RHP this week. Could this be the week Freddie Freeman overtakes Bryce Harper for NL MVP? It will be as great of a race as the division is. Eddie Rosario will be in a good spot with much better power numbers against righties. Ozzie Albies can add onto his 30-HR season with better power numbers in the split, as well. By the way, Albies is two stolen bases shy of 30/20.
Speaking of Home…
LAD (SD – 3, MIL – 3), SF (ARI – 3, SD – 3) and STL (MIL – 3, CHC – 3) are ALL home for six as they vie for playoff positioning. Take note, both the Dodgers and Cardinals play the Brewers. Milwaukee is due to set a record for lowest BA for a division-winning team. That’s really a pitcher’s note, but I wanted to squeeze it in somewhere, and it’s still an area to target for your hurlers.
Continue to Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
Why do all the “bad” offenses have seven games this week, while the upper echelon mostly plays six? This could seem like misfortune, but I’m here to say, it is NOT. Teams with nothing to play for will have players auditioning for next year or treating these last few games like it’s the fucking World Series… cause it is for them. Most of the time, you can get better production here than from playoff-bound teams.
Pirates, Mets, Marlins, Guardians, Royals and Tigers = seven games
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. As you see in the grid, we only have two series to be concerned with when setting our final lineups. This is odd as, usually, the interleague schedule has concluded before the final week. But let’s face facts. Nothing has been normal in the past two seasons.
Boston has not been on the road in the Senior Circuit since 6/16, but not much has changed since that time. The big difference has been Iglesias. Since signing on with the BoSox, he has been scorching hot, hitting .375 with a 1.044 OPS in 45 plate appearances. If we look back to June, J.D. played left field in both games of a two-game set in Atlanta. I don’t expect this to change, considering Boston scored 10 runs in both games, and Martinez has hits in eight of his last 10 games, including three multi-hit efforts. In both instances, Alex Verdugo shifted to center. Kiké Hernández shifted to second for one of the games while riding pine in the other. However, Kiké has been equally as hot as J.D. and Iglesias with hits in five straight games, three of which being multi-hit efforts.
So, what will they do? Good problem to have. The winning formula of J.D. in left, Verdugo in center and Kiké at second should be in play with a slim one-game lead on New York for the top Wild Card and three games over wannabes Toronto and Seattle (as of 9/25). The confounding variable is Iglesias won’t be available to play in the postseason. With this in mind, do the Red Sox utilize him for the sake of resting Kiké/Verdugo/J.D. and riding his hot hand? It’s distinctly possible, especially since the series is their last one of the regular season. If they have clinched the No. 1 WC, the latter strategy will be in effect, for sure.
When the Redlegs travel to Chicago, Stephenson should occupy first base with Joey Votto at DH. However, with Cincinnati’s Wild Card chances on life support, Votto could hit the bench (especially with this news) with Stephenson and their No. 1 prospect (No. 25 overall) Jose Barrero in the lineup.
Rivalry Series: None
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Walker Buehler3 (SD, MIL)
- Zack Wheeler8 (@ATL, @MIA)
- Charlie Morton12 (PHI, NYM) ← ATL shuffles rotation for big Phillies series: Morton 9/28, Max Fried 9/29, Ian Anderson now goes 9/30 switching spots with Morton.
- Logan Webb14 (ARI, SD)
- Chris Sale22 (@BAL, @WSH)
- Yu Darvish32 (@LAD,
@SF) ← Manager Jayce Tingler shutdown Darvish after first start with SD out of wildcard contention. - Marcus Stroman34 (MIA,
@ATL) ← Mets opt to let Stro ride into the sunset after a successful season; Noah Syndergaard will make another opening appearance in his stead as he builds up his stock. - Chris Flexen40 (OAK, LAA)
- Cal Quantrill43 (KC,
@TEX) ← Cleveland is hoping to get a few more innings under Aaron Civale’s belt, limited to 20.2 IP since the ASB. Civale draws last start of the season. - Hyun Jin Ryu44 (NYY, BAL) ← Currently on IL with neck tightness; missed one start and slots in well for last week playoff push. Why not ride your senior staff member? *UPDATE: Ryu is expected to be activated 9/28.
- Germán Márquez46 (WSH, @ARI)
- Tyler Anderson53 (OAK, LAA) ← Seattle shortens their rotation to four men for the final week as they have closed in on a Wild Card spot. Interesting, as the philosophy of a six-man has long gone and now even tightens. Bold Strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off for em! The struggling Yusei Kikuchi moves to the bullpen for now.
Other Options: Drew Rasmussen61 (@HOU, @NYY), Chris Bassitt66 (@SEA, @HOU*), José Urquidy69 (TB, OAK), Trevor Rogers73 (@NYM, PHI), Jameson Taillon76 (@TOR, TB)*, Cole Irvin78 (@SEA, @HOU), Alec Mills101 (@PIT, @STL)
*Two pitchers with a two-start week in six games; how can this happen, you ask? With the 9/30 off day, Bassitt could return on normal rest after sitting out so long while his face was healing. If Oakland opts to skip Paul Blackburn, CBass could pitch the final game of the season if they want to finish the season on a good note with CBass’ remarkable run. Blackburn announced for 10/2, ending CBass’ season.
*UPDATE: Taillon confirmed for second start. Yanks will need his A-game being one of FOUR teams within one game of each other for a wildcard birth. Mills picks up second start on season’s final day due to Keegan Thompson shutdown. Rogers ends a fantastic rookie year that really started in 2020; Pablo López returns from his long IL stint (out since mid-July) on the last day.
Danger Zone: Tyler Alexander130 (@MIN, @CHW), Jackson Kowar149 (@CLE, MIN), Michael Wacha150 (@HOU, @NYY), Mitch KellerNR (CHC, CIN), Josiah GrayNR (@COL, BOS)*, Matt ManningNR (CHW, @CHW)*, Reiver SanmartinNR (PIT, @PIT)*, Bruce ZimmermannNR (BOS, @TOR)
*Gray is a future talent in this league and ranks #77 in Ray’s last rankings. However, there is absolutely no way in fuck I’m starting him anywhere next week, thus the “not ranked.” I’m sure he will now go out, defy logic, and pitch masterfully. A 9/27 makeup game makes for a weird two-step for Manning where he’ll face the same team twice (and third in as many starts going back to last week). Certainly does not set up well for Manning, although if Chicago rests starters in the second game, he could be an interesting late-week start for daily leaguers. Sanmartin could will be called up to fill Wade Miley’s spot in the rotation, especially if the latter’s season is declared over (see IL report). Another weird start pairing… do you feel lucky, punk? Well, do ya?
For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Ray’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR SEPT 27 – OCT 3
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Wade Miley couldn’t avoid the injured list with his pesky strained neck. Originally scheduled for 9/24, he was scratched with the hopes he could return to the mound on 9/27. Unfortunately, he did not respond to treatment and may have thrown his last pitch for Cincinnati since he’s in the last year of a two-year, $15 million contract. The IL move is retro to 9/22, so he is eligible to be activated this weekend. However, it is being reported that Miley’s season is effectively over. Reiver Sanmartin is a “good bet” to replace Miley in the rotation. After posting an effective and upscale season, another good bet is Miley gets paid this offseason.
Teammate Mike Moustakas (plantar fasciitis) was also placed on the 10-day IL, retroactive to 9/21. This is the second time plantar fasciitis has sidelined Moustakas in 2021 after he missed 68 games from 5/20-8/6. A recent foul ball hit off his right foot may have triggered a flare-up. It’s not yet clear whether Moustakas will be able to return before the end of the regular season. Moose has largely disappointed in this injury-marred year, slashing a putrid .208/.282/.372 with a .284 wOBA and 70 wRC+. Since coming off the IL, it has been worse: .177/.225/.313 in 34 games.
Cody Bellinger told reporters he feels he’s progressing from a rib fracture well enough to return to the field during the season’s final week. His first day of eligibility to come off the 10-day IL is 9/28, but the Dodgers have been hesitant about setting a hard date for his return.
Dylan Cease should be able to make one more start before the postseason. Cease exited his last start against Cleveland in the sixth inning after being hit on his right arm by a 110.4 mph comebacker. X-rays were negative for the right-hander, who is listed as day-to-day. Aren’t we all…
Neck soreness appears to be contagious. Zack Greinke hits the 10-day IL, retro to 9/21. He is eligible to return for a 9/1 start, but with starting pitcher depth, I believe Houston will sit him out till playoffs. Jake Odorizzi returning from the IL helps this depth. “It’s been kind of a mess since all that (COVID-19 IL),” Greinke said. “The important thing now is the season for me is closer to over. Just trying to get ready for the playoffs and hopefully help the team out there as much as possible.”
Finally, Jameson Taillon (torn tendon in right ankle) is traveling with the Yankees, and there is “a good chance” he will be reinserted into the rotation during the Blue Jays series, according to manager Aaron Boone. Also in the report, Jonathan Loáisiga (shoulder) tossed a BP session and is scheduled to do so again on 9/26-27. He too could be activated for the Blue Jays series. This just in… DJ LeMahieu is playing through injury that might require offseason surgery.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Brady Singer123, RH KC (CLE, MIN*; 50-75% owned) – Singer came into 2021 on the heels of an impressive showing after leap-frogging Triple-A in the pandemic-shortened year of 2020. Unfortunately in year two, Singer wasn’t able to replicate his prior success due to inconsistent pitch location and injury. Coming off his most recent trip to the injured list, Singer fired seven innings for his first career complete game (doubleheader, but still). It was a great performance by the former Florida Gator, and he’ll look to build off that start with two a good matchup to wrap up his year against Cleveland and Minnesota. Singer was widely rostered, but at this point of the season, he may have been dropped due to the aforementioned reasons. Despite his struggles on the year, he does own a 4.02 FIP (4.09 xFIP) and 50.1% ground-ball rate (28.1 FB%).
*Singer reclaimed second start when it was announced on 9/28 that Carlos Hernández will not make another start due to excessive innings (compared to past years) and instead pitch out of bullpen rest of the season. However, Singer was removed in first inning of first start due to upper arm discomfort. It was later found to be a “mid-arm” injury yet no damage in elbow or shoulder was detected by scans. Still, with little to play for, KC has shut down Singer and places him on the IL.
Honorable Mention: N/A
Solo Start: Alex Cobb57, RH LAA (@TEX; 20-50% owned) – Cobb just put on a great performance against the Astros (5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K), and he gets to face the easier Texas team this time around. In fact, his two starts since returning from the IL have been against stiff competition (the other was @CHW), and he hasn’t skipped a beat since I first wrote about him. On the season, he’s quietly put up a 3.46 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning (9.48 K/9. Cobb has also posted a sparkling 0.31 HR/9 (23.3 FB%, 53.8 GB%).
*I recommended streaming Joe Ryan83 (RHP, MIN) in this space two weeks ago, and assuming all is well with his family (currently on bereavement list), we will continue to ride Captain America to the finish line with a gorgeous two-start week (DET, @KC). I love how he is attacking the zone while competing for a rotation spot for 2022. *UPDATE: Minnesota plans to reinstate Ryan on 9/30 for his final start of the season against Detroit. Not quite what we hoped for, but extremely understandable (considering the circumstances) and better than taking a zero if you took the gamble by locking him in on Monday. I love him as a daily league points play with the personal motivation here.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, October 3, 2021
| 3:05 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Chris Sale (LHP, BOS) | 5-1 | 2.90 | 3.34 | 3.44 | 3.54 | 26.6% | 5.3% | 32.4% | 30.0% | ||||||||
| Joan Adon* (RHP, WSH) | 7-6 | 4.97 | 3.66 | — | — | 26.9% | 8.8% | — | 29.8% |
| 3:05 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Reiver Sanmartin* (LHP, CIN) | 1-0 | 1.59 | 4.11 | 4.05 | 3.94 | 22.7% | 4.5% | 37.5% | 43.8% | ||||||||
| Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT) | 5-11 | 6.27 | 4.88 | 4.99 | 5.80 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 47.8% | 33.7% |
| 3:05 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Reiss Knehr (RHP, SD) | 1-1 | 4.85 | 6.53 | 6.16 | 5.40 | 15.7% | 15.7% | 42.9% | 47.4% | ||||||||
| Logan Webb (RHP, SF) | 10-3 | 2.93 | 2.81 | 3.16 | 3.24 | 26.4% | 6.3% | 39.1% | 18.6% |
| 3:05 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Aaron Civale (RHP, CLE) | 11-5 | 4.03 | 4.31 | 4.40 | 4.98 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 40.1% | 37.0% | ||||||||
| Dane Dunning (RHP, TEX) | 5-9 | 4.32 | 3.82 | 4.10 | 4.75 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 43.3% | 26.1% |
| 3:05 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Michael Wacha (RHP, TB) | 3-5 | 5.26 | 3.86 | 3.96 | 5.61 | 23.2% | 5.9% | 42.2% | 35.2% | ||||||||
| Jameson Taillon (RHP, NYY) | 8-6 | 4.40 | 4.66 | 4.30 | 3.94 | 23.4% | 7.3% | 40.4% | 48.3% |
| 3:07 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Bruce Zimmermann (LHP, BAL) | 4-4 | 4.66 | 4.42 | 4.58 | 6.11 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 44.2% | 34.0% | ||||||||
| Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP, TOR) | 13-10 | 4.39 | 3.97 | 4.20 | 4.44 | 20.1% | 5.3% | 41.4% | 33.2% |
| 3:10 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Germán Márquez (RHP, COL) | 12-11 | 4.40 | 3.63 | 4.07 | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 38.9% | 26.3% | ||||||||
| Humberto Mejía (RHP, ARI) | 0-3 | 7.64 | 5.12 | 5.16 | 7.07 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 39.3% | 37.7% |
| 3:10 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Cole Irvin (LHP, OAK) | 10-15 | 4.18 | 4.84 | 4.85 | 4.95 | 16.2% | 5.5% | 38.9% | 38.1% | ||||||||
| José Urquidy (RHP, HOU) | 8-3 | 3.56 | 4.26 | 4.19 | 3.91 | 21.8% | 4.5% | 36.2% | 44.8% |
| 3:10 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Reid Detmers (LHP, LAA) | 1-3 | 7.11 | 5.80 | 5.19 | 5.88 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 33.3% | 46.8% | ||||||||
| Tyler Anderson (LHP, SEA) | 7-10 | 4.41 | 4.52 | 4.50 | 4.20 | 19.4% | 5.2% | 32.7% | 42.9% |
| 3:10 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Charlie Barnes* (LHP, MIN) | 0-3 | 5.86 | 6.33 | 6.06 | 6.03 | 10.7% | 9.4% | 41.1% | 43.0% | ||||||||
| Jackson Kowar* (RHP, KC) | 0-5 | 11.28 | 6.22 | 5.82 | 7.44 | 16.9% | 14.0% | 52.2% | 39.1% |
| 3:10 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Tyler Alexander (LHP, DET) | 2-4 | 3.95 | 4.87 | 4.44 | 4.38 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 39.8% | 44.9% | ||||||||
| Dylan Cease (RHP, CHW) | 13-7 | 3.95 | 3.68 | 3.54 | 3.64 | 32.0% | 9.6% | 38.3% | 43.7% |
| 3:10 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Adonis Medina* (RHP, PHI) | 0-0 | 4.05 | 6.17 | 5.66 | 4.95 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 38.1% | 19.0% | ||||||||
| Pablo López* (RHP, MIA) | 5-5 | 3.03 | 3.33 | 3.50 | 3.54 | 27.1% | 6.1% | 32.7% | 30.7% |
| 3:10 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Brett Anderson (LHP, MIL) | 4-9 | 4.26 | 4.10 | 4.53 | 5.80 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 46.9% | 21.0% | ||||||||
| Walker Buehler* (RHP, LAD) | 15-4 | 2.49 | 3.65 | 3.80 | 3.12 | 25.3% | 6.4% | 36.6% | 35.7% |
| 3:15 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Alec Mills (RHP, CHC) | 6-7 | 5.09 | 4.30 | 4.45 | 4.79 | 17.2% | 6.4% | 39.4% | 28.5% | ||||||||
| Jake Woodford (RHP, STL) | 3-3 | 3.88 | 5.14 | 4.93 | 4.66 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 39.9% | 35.6% |
| 3:20 PM ET | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| Trevor Williams / Noah Syndergaard Opener (RHP, NYM – TW stats) | 4-2 | 4.29 | 3.96 | 4.14 | 4.38 | 22.1% | 7.6% | 37.1% | 31.0% | ||||||||
| Charlie Morton (RHP, ATL) | 14-6 | 3.39 | 3.31 | 3.54 | 3.33 | 28.5% | 7.8% | 32.5% | 28.7% |
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY!
