Last week was all over the place and I faded Cantlay and a few others at the top besides the winner. It was not a good week for me, and I found myself on some bad luck once again. We will get it figured out and start stringing together some weeks of winning. We start at the Zozo where it will be a no cut event and we also will not have Shot link which is not always fun. Let’s get to it.
Course Preview
This week we make our way over to Asia for the Zozo Championship at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club for the third time. The first two winners were Tiger Woods and then Hideki Matsuyama. This course does not have shot link, but you won’t be watching much golf anyways as you will be waking up in the mornings and golf will almost already be done. This course plays as a 7,041-yard par 70 with a layout of five par 3’s ten par 4’s and three par 5’s. The course is super short, but this course is still not the easiest on tour. Tiger Woods won here in 2019 with a score of -19 but the next guy who was Hideki was at -16. Then in 2021 Hideki won with a score of -15 with the next closest at -10 so scoring is not all that easy on this course. The fairways and narrow and tree lined making you have to hit the ball this week being great on T2G to succeed. The greens are pure so in the past this has helped a bad putter do well here so it kind of just levels the playing field. This time of year, we will be seeing Bent grass greens. With fans able to show up this week you will see Hideki having a bunch of fans around him and watching his every move this week. He is like royalty over here. We will need to find data from these golfers from other courses due to no data to pull from this course, but I think we will be just fine on our way to cashing a bunch of money. LET’S GOO!
Stats I am looking at
- SG: APP
- Prox: 175+
- Good Drives
- Par 3 Scoring
- Par 5: 550-600
- Scrambling
- Bogeys Avoidance
Player Breakdown
Xander Schauffele (Cash/Gpp)
When it comes to no cut events you really cannot overlook Xander. Usually great at no cut events and finished 10th here in 2020. All his stats lineup pretty well except for scrambling and P5: 550-600 but that will not deter me.
Hideki Matsuyama (Cash/Gpp)
I know we all hate him when we play him, but he has a 1st and a 2nd at this course and still ranks 6th in my model for the week. He looks great this week just need to hope he does not screw us once again.
Sungjae Im (Cash/Gpp)
Only four guys in the $10k range and I am listing three of them which is weird but honestly, but I think it’s needed. All three could win this this tournament and I’m thinking Sungjae might be the lower owned of the three. Has a 3rd place finish here in 2020 along with being 2nd overall in my model. I honestly might lean him over both of the other two guys.
Cameron Young (Gpp)
One of the better scramblers in the field. He is a great talent as most of you guys know so I am willing to overlook certain things with him. He is only 25th in my model this week and that is because of his par 3 scoring and his driving. If you look at his past tournaments, he has been gaining off the tee and I think he can keep it up.
Corey Conners (Cash/Gpp)
Form has been kind of all over the place, but he is my favorite golfer in this range this week. Finished 6th here in 2020 and did not play here last year. Do not be surprised to see him top 5 this week. Coming in 4th in my model this week with his drives and APP looking amazing and he even is 9th in the field in bogey avoidance.
Keegan Bradley (Gpp)
One of the guys who benefits from the greens being pure and being able to putt here. Has a 13th and a 7th at this course and likes to play here. Form is not amazing but sub $9k and in a no cut event should boost him for me. 9th in my model as well.
Si Woo Kim (Cash/Gpp)
Kim has actually played well lately and whenever he gains strokes with the putter, he finishes good in tournaments. With these greens, making it an even playing field pretty much I think Kim can finish top 15 and should be lower owned than he should.
Cameron Davis (Gpp)
Gpp play for me just due to the fact that he has not played here before and not really sure how he will handle this course. If he can keep the ball straight off the tee, he has all the firepower to do well at this course. Sony is a comp course and he has done well there. Davis also comes in 11th in my overall model this week with his good drives gained the only stat that he is not top 25.
Mito Pereira (Cash/Gpp)
I feel like every time I jump on him after a good week he screws me more often times than not. I just have to go back to the well with him here because he looked great on APP last week and I think he can keep that up here. Also is 7th in my model this week with him being 1st in good drives and also 1st in APP.
Sebastian Munoz (Gpp)
Looking into him further surprises me as to why he is 3rd in my model because his form is not the greatest but it looks like that it has been for the last few tournaments. Plays well at this course seeing how he got a 4th here last year. Another guy who should benefit from the greens being pure.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Cash/Gpp)
He actually could be decent for single entries this week because it is a no cut event and he is one of the better putters in this field. I know the playing field is even with that but between that and how good he is avoiding bogeys and scrambling I am willing to take him this week.
Matthew Nesmith (Cash/Gpp)
Good play for both cash and GPPs this week, didn’t smash last year here, but that is okay, as I believe with him game a top 20 is well within the cards. Has gained over 6 strokes on approach the past two events and it looks like he is catching fire and even with that I am not sure he will be highly owned. Sits 13th in my model this week as well with his worst stat being scrambling.
Emiliano Grillo (Gpp)
Grillo has actually gained strokes putting in the last seven tournaments, which surprised me because he is not a great putter. Grillo’s irons are decent and should do well here. 16th in my model with his scrambling being the worst ranking 63rd.
Mark Hubbard (Cash/Gpp)
I will be riding the hot streak from Hubbard and will be using him in cash and thinking about him in GPPs. I am not sure he has that massive upside this week, so I lean more towards just throwing him in my cash lineup and moving on. Another guy who is not great at scrambling but if his irons are on, he won’t need a bunch of that.
Andrew Putnam (Cash/Gpp)
I think he might be one of the safer plays in this entire range. Putnam has not missed a cut in ten straight events. 24th in my model with him being 4th in bogey avoidance and 1st in scrambling. I know I probably will jinx his streak, but the good thing is he cannot miss the cut here.
Brenden Steele (Gpp)
I would have him in my cash pool, but he has missed 3 of the last 4 cuts. We do not have a cut here and Steele has a good record at Sony and also here. Finished 2nd here last year so he might come with some ownership at this price.
Luke List (Gpp)
This man can’t make a putt to save his life at almost every tournament. If he somehow can do well on these pure greens, he will finish top 10, and I am willing to bet on that. Gains on App and OTT majority of tournaments and finished 7th here last year.
Alex Smalley (Cash/Gpp)
Has good talent but losing strokes on APP is not going to far well at this course. He seems like he cannot find his entire game all at once. The last time he gained in almost every stat category was at the John Deere where he finished 16th. I don’t think he can top 10 but a top 20 is doable here.
Joel Dahmen (Cash)
Just like I mentioned last week, Dahmen was on a bad streak of losing strokes on approach, but he is good with his irons and since then has gone two straight tournaments gaining on app. I think he keeps that going here this week.
Chez Reavie (Gpp)
Here is your 2% sleeper on the week that can win you a Gpp. Reavie has good driving accuracy but has had a bad run as of late. Mainly due to his putter and ARG. These greens will help him a bit and give him more opportunities to move up the leaderboard.
Ryo Hisatune (Cash/Gpp)
Not a bunch of information on Ryo but this is a home country tournament and has played well over on the Japan Tour which isn’t the greatest, but he can top 25 at this course and pay off this price tag easily if he does so.
Rikuya Hoshino (Gpp)
So cheap this week and is another young Japanese native who has a bunch of wins over on the Japan Tour. I am not saying he will smash just because this his home event, but I think this price might be a bit disrespectful.
Cash Game Core: This core leaves you with $7,867 per player left
- Xander Schauffele
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Andrew Putnam
Gpp Core: This core leaves you with $8,167 per player left
- Sungjae Im
- Corey Conners
- Chez Reavie
