Ray’s Ramblings: Qualify Offers Extended

A little less than a month ago I talked about free agents and the Qualifying Offer. The info is in, so we can make some statements of fact now. Let’s talk about what we know.

Here is the article that explains what a Qualifying Offer is all about.

Note that of the 96 players offered a QO since 2012, only 10 have accepted the one-year deal.

Who received the one year, $18.4 million offer?

Brandon Belt – I’ve spoken about previously many times. He’s been an under the radar elite level performer the past couple of years on a per plate appearance basis. 

Nick Castellanos will turn down the QO and get paid. He already turned down the offer.

Michael Conforto is gonna accept, right? Nope. Reports suggest there is strong interest in the lefty slugger. He already turned down the offer.

Carlos Correa reportedly was offered a huge contract by the Astros.

MLB sources: The @astros have offered free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa a five-year contract worth $160 million, averaging $32 million a year.

— Mark Berman (@MarkBerman_) November 6, 2021

Freddie Freeman is an MVP, a World Series champ, and he cannot possible do anything other than sign an extension with the Braves, right?

Raisel Iglesias is a pretty wild offer candidate. He was fantabulistic, no dispute there, but $18.4 million for a reliever in an era where teams are nearly as likely to use a reliever as a starter? It would be an all-time record.

Angels’ qualifying offer ($18.4M) to Raisel Iglesias would represent a record salary for a reliever should he accept, breaking Liam Hendriks’ $18M record. Unlikely he’d accept, though, as multiyear deals await one of the game’s top closers. Good call by Angels to make the offer.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 8, 2021

Robbie Ray is getting paid… and he might even win the AL Cy Young.

Eduardo Rodriguez – expected to turn down QO according to Jon Morosi (see this video).

Corey Seager is gonna get one of the bigger contracts of the offseason after turning down the QO. He already turned down the offer.

Marcus Semien won a Gold Glove and had a massive offensive season. He already turned down the offer.

Trevor Story will not be a Rockie next year. Book it.

Noah Syndergaard has thrown two innings in two years.

Chris Taylor was a playoff star and had an impressive season flashing his versatility.

Interest in Chris Taylor is said to be immense, no surprise due to his versatility and big year. Dodgers made right call giving him the $18.4M qualifying offer. No decision yet but hard to see him accepting it and passing up free agency.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 9, 2021

Justin Verlander got a couple of updates, and they were big ones.

First, he wants to pitch forever.

Free agent Justin Verlander has reached 95-96 mph in recent bullpen sessions, as Harold Reynolds said this morning on @MLBNetwork. Verlander, who turns 39 before next season, has said he wants to pitch until age 45. @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 8, 2021

Second, it seems like more than half the teams in baseball believe he can.

Heard 15-20 teams were in to see Justin Verlander’s workout today in Florida. Threw about 25 pitches. Clocked in at 94-97 mph. He is among the most fascinating potential free agents. Can still take the $18.4M qualifying offer from the #Astros, but strong chance he tests market.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 8, 2021

He will be 39 years old in February, and he’s thrown six innings the last two years, but it sure sounds like he’s gonna get paid, and the chances of him returning to Houston are minimal after he basically ghosted the organization in the playoffs.

Who did NOT receive the QO?

Athletics: Mark Canha

Not a surprising call. A really good baseball player, but the Athletics aren’t paying really good baseball players $18.4 million for one year.

Blue Jays: Steven Matz

The Jays would like to keep him, even offering a multi-year deal.

Jays recently made a multiyear offer to Steven Matz. He did not accept it so free agency awaits. Jays ultimately decided not to give Matz the $18.4M qualifying offer.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 6, 2021

Brewers: Avisail García

Should get a nice, respectable multi-year deal, but likely at less than the QO per season.

Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw

This is likely the biggest surprise on the list. A future Hall of Famer who has spent his whole career in an LAD uni, he has to work some contract out to remain in L.A., doesn’t he?

Giants: Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood

That’s two fifths of the Giants start rotation, and they also turned down the $22 million extension on Johnny Cueto’s contract. Both AD and AW could accept or turn the offer down. The massive amount of success in S.F. has to be a draw, but with Buster Posey retiring and the potential that they could easily secure a multi-year deal, it’s possible both move on.

Padres: Tommy Pham
He has three seasons of 20/15 and two of 20/20. He went 15/14 in 2021 hitting a mere .229.

Rockies: Jon Gray

For more, check out this podcast.

Twins: Michael Pineda, Andrelton Simmons

Simmons is a wizard with the glove but he had a .558 OPS last season. He’s not getting a better financial offer this offseason than $18.4 million, so the questions are (A) did he enjoy his time in Minnesota and (B) is he willing to take WAY less to sign a multi-year deal with a larger overall return? Pineda last threw 150 big-league innings in 2016 and he’s thrown less than 140 total innings the last two years. He’s a very strong hurler to round out a rotation though.

White Sox: Carlos Rodon

Other than the Kershaw situation, this is the one that fascinates me the most. You all know the story. A career of injuries. Excellence in 2021… until more injury hit. Who takes a dive into the deep end of the pool with Rodon and will the contract include a copious amount of incentives?