Ray’s Ramblings: 2022 Review – Homers & Pitchers

In a previous article we talked about the home run and the batter, the natural way to look at the homer question. But what about the men who allow the homer? Which men were blasted by the big fly and which men kept the ball in the yard with high levels of success in 2022?

HOMERS ALLOWED

With no context, just a listing of the big flies allowed, here are the “leaders” from 2022.

Name	Team	G	GS	IP	HR
Josiah Gray	WSN	28	28	148.2	38
Gerrit Cole	NYY	33	33	200.2	33
Robbie Ray	SEA	32	32	189	32
Marco Gonzales	SEA	32	32	183	30
German Marquez	COL	31	31	181.2	30
Jose Berrios	TOR	32	32	172	29
Jose Urquidy	HOU	29	28	164.1	29
Sean Manaea	SDP	30	28	158	29
Charlie Morton	ATL	31	31	172	28
Nick Pivetta	BOS	33	33	179.2	27
Eric Lauer	MIL	29	29	158.2	27
Patrick Corbin	WSN	31	31	152.2	27
Jordan Lyles	BAL	32	32	179	26
Jameson Taillon	NYY	32	32	177.1	26
Miles Mikolas	STL	33	32	202.1	25
Triston McKenzie	CLE	31	30	191.1	25
Cole Irvin	OAK	30	30	181	25
Madison Bumgarner	ARI	30	30	158.2	25
Chad Kuhl	COL	27	27	137	25
Kyle Gibson	PHI	31	31	167.2	24
Lucas Giolito	CHW	30	30	161.2	24
Dylan Bundy	MIN	29	29	140	24
Hunter Greene	CIN	24	24	125.2	24
Paolo Espino	WSN	42	19	113.1	24
Mike Minor	CIN	19	19	98	24

Now, let’s provide some context.

HOMER PER NINE: 150+ INNINGS PITCHED – BAD

Name	Team	G	GS	IP	xERA	xFIP	HR	FB%	HR/FB	HR/9
Sean Manaea	SDP	30	28	158	4.05	3.96	29	42.50%	14.90%	1.65
Jose Urquidy	HOU	29	28	164.1	4.56	4.32	29	44.80%	12.90%	1.59
Patrick Corbin	WSN	31	31	152.2	6.41	4.21	27	33.00%	15.60%	1.59
Eric Lauer	MIL	29	29	158.2	4.02	4.08	27	44.20%	14.10%	1.53
Robbie Ray	SEA	32	32	189	3.59	3.58	32	41.90%	15.50%	1.52
Jose Berrios	TOR	32	32	172	5.11	4.21	29	39.70%	13.50%	1.52
German Marquez	COL	31	31	181.2	4.49	4.02	30	31.80%	16.90%	1.49
Gerrit Cole	NYY	33	33	200.2	3.31	2.78	33	40.60%	16.80%	1.48
Marco Gonzales	SEA	32	32	183	4.59	4.88	30	39.10%	12.40%	1.48
Charlie Morton	ATL	31	31	172	4.11	3.61	28	38.60%	16.50%	1.47
Madison Bumgarner	ARI	30	30	158.2	5.53	4.83	25	41.90%	11.50%	1.42
Nick Pivetta	BOS	33	33	179.2	4.65	4.26	27	41.90%	12.40%	1.35
Lucas Giolito	CHW	30	30	161.2	4.23	3.66	24	36.80%	14.40%	1.34
Jameson Taillon	NYY	32	32	177.1	4.20	3.79	26	39.30%	12.40%	1.32
Luis Garcia	HOU	28	28	157.1	3.59	3.82	23	43.60%	12.10%	1.32
Jordan Lyles	BAL	32	32	179	4.94	4.40	26	40.20%	11.40%	1.31
Kyle Gibson	PHI	31	31	167.2	4.46	3.94	24	33.80%	13.90%	1.29
Cole Irvin	OAK	30	30	181	4.40	4.35	25	42.10%	10.50%	1.24

Sean Manaea started well, but by seasons end he was a mess.

Jose Urquidy doesn’t beat himself with the walk, which helps to offset some of the homer pain.

Eric Lauer and Robbie Ray skirted the homer issue, to a large degree, whereas Jose Berrios simply was not able to.

Gerrit Cole seems to have one weakness at this point of his career – the home run.

HOMER PER NINE: 150+ INNINGS PITCHED – GOOD

Name	Team	G	GS	IP	xERA	xFIP	HR	FB%	HR/FB	HR/9
Jose Quintana	– – –	32	32	165.2	3.86	3.72	8	31.10%	5.30%	0.43
Framber Valdez	HOU	31	31	201.1	3.31	3.00	11	16.00%	12.50%	0.49
Martin Perez	TEX	32	32	196.1	3.59	3.80	11	29.80%	6.50%	0.50
Logan Webb	SFG	32	32	192.1	3.59	3.32	11	23.80%	8.30%	0.51
Max Fried	ATL	30	30	185.1	2.85	3.09	12	29.60%	7.80%	0.58
Carlos Rodon	SFG	31	31	178	2.64	2.91	12	44.60%	6.50%	0.61
Justin Verlander	HOU	28	28	175	2.66	3.23	12	43.60%	6.20%	0.62
Sandy Alcantara	MIA	32	32	228.2	2.92	3.29	16	30.60%	8.50%	0.63
Tyler Anderson	LAD	30	28	178.2	3.10	4.11	14	42.00%	6.40%	0.71
Alek Manoah	TOR	31	31	196.2	3.31	3.98	16	41.90%	7.10%	0.73
Zac Gallen	ARI	31	31	184	3.17	3.32	15	36.10%	9.10%	0.73
Adam Wainwright	STL	32	32	191.2	4.53	4.10	16	32.90%	8.10%	0.75
Shohei Ohtani	LAA	28	28	166	2.68	2.65	14	38.30%	9.30%	0.76
Zack Wheeler	PHI	26	26	153	3.10	3.06	13	32.90%	9.80%	0.76
Kevin Gausman	TOR	31	31	174.2	3.34	2.76	15	36.10%	8.50%	0.77
Dylan Cease	CHW	32	32	184	2.70	3.50	16	43.80%	8.40%	0.78
Luis Castillo	– – –	25	25	150.1	3.31	3.23	13	33.50%	10.00%	0.78
Mitch Keller	PIT	31	29	159	4.23	3.99	14	28.50%	10.40%	0.79

Not too surprising to see this list populated by guys who were fantasy stars in 2022.

Jose Quintana had one of the more remarkable comeback seasons in recent memory and keeping the ball in the part was a huge piece of that.

Framber Valdez simply doesn’t allow the home run. That makes sense given he allows the fly ball.

Martin Perez and Logan Webb had a sub 30 percent fly ball rate aiding their quest.

Carlos Rodon had a near 45 percent fly ball rate… so there was some fortune to the lack of homers. His numbers were nearly identical to Justin Verlander.

HOMERS PER NINE: 100-149.2 INNINGS PITCHED – BAD

Name	Team	G	GS	IP	xERA	xFIP	HR	FB%	HR/FB	HR/9
Josiah Gray	WSN	28	28	148.2	4.25	4.57	38	49.20%	18.60%	2.30
Yusei Kikuchi	TOR	32	20	100.2	5.63	4.07	23	37.00%	23.70%	2.06
Paolo Espino	WSN	42	19	113.1	4.78	4.14	24	41.30%	16.00%	1.91
Nathan Eovaldi	BOS	20	20	109.1	4.31	3.46	21	36.50%	17.20%	1.73
Hunter Greene	CIN	24	24	125.2	4.00	3.64	24	48.50%	16.10%	1.72
Chad Kuhl	COL	27	27	137	5.31	4.78	25	39.80%	14.30%	1.64
Jon Heasley	KCR	21	21	104	5.35	5.49	19	45.20%	12.30%	1.64
Tyler Alexander	DET	27	17	101	5.42	4.77	18	42.70%	12.60%	1.60
Mike Clevinger	SDP	23	22	114.1	4.65	4.76	20	45.80%	12.60%	1.57
Bryse Wilson	PIT	25	20	115.2	5.53	4.54	20	35.00%	14.80%	1.56
Dylan Bundy	MIN	29	29	140	4.34	4.70	24	45.80%	11.20%	1.54
Erick Fedde	WSN	27	27	127	5.45	4.74	21	35.60%	14.10%	1.49
Daniel Lynch	KCR	27	27	131.2	5.07	4.30	21	37.20%	13.50%	1.44
Austin Gomber	COL	33	17	124.2	4.59	4.19	20	37.10%	13.70%	1.44
Zach Davies	ARI	27	27	134.1	4.56	4.58	21	39.70%	13.00%	1.41
Lance Lynn	CHW	21	21	121.2	3.62	3.44	19	38.10%	14.00%	1.41
Zach Thompson	PIT	29	22	121.2	5.14	4.44	19	32.60%	14.50%	1.41
Glenn Otto	TEX	27	27	135.2	5.01	4.82	21	37.30%	14.10%	1.39
Tyler Wells	BAL	23	23	103.2	3.78	4.60	16	46.50%	11.00%	1.39
Drew Smyly	CHC	22	22	106.1	4.17	4.18	16	42.30%	11.70%	1.35
Zach Plesac	CLE	25	24	131.2	5.28	4.40	19	38.40%	11.70%	1.30
Kyle Bradish	BAL	23	23	117.2	4.49	4.01	17	33.30%	14.90%	1.30

You cannot allow two homers per nine. It is impossible to have success long-term doing that Josiah Gray and Yusei Kikuchi. In fact, anything over 1.50 is really, really bad.

HOMERS PER NINE: 100-149.2 INNINGS PITCHED – GOOD

Name	Team	G	GS	IP	xERA	xFIP	HR	FB%	HR/FB	HR/9
Patrick Sandoval	LAA	27	27	148.2	3.91	3.67	8	30.80%	6.30%	0.48
Spencer Strider	ATL	31	20	131.2	2.39	2.30	7	37.10%	6.80%	0.48
Alex Cobb	SFG	28	28	149.2	3.15	2.89	9	20.70%	10.20%	0.54
Dakota Hudson	STL	27	26	139.2	5.01	4.82	9	28.10%	7.20%	0.58
Justin Steele	CHC	24	24	119	3.59	3.48	8	27.90%	8.70%	0.61
Tarik Skubal	DET	21	21	117.2	3.34	3.40	9	35.20%	7.90%	0.69
Adrian Houser	MIL	22	21	102.2	4.94	4.64	8	29.90%	8.00%	0.70
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	22	22	126.1	2.51	2.83	10	33.40%	9.10%	0.71
Andre Pallante	STL	47	10	108	3.78	3.71	9	17.30%	15.30%	0.75
Tony Gonsolin	LAD	24	24	130.1	3.12	3.70	11	39.20%	8.30%	0.76
Blake Snell	SDP	24	24	128	3.19	3.21	11	42.70%	8.30%	0.77
Dean Kremer	BAL	22	21	125.1	4.46	4.43	11	39.40%	7.30%	0.79
Drew Rasmussen	TBR	28	28	146	3.46	3.56	13	34.20%	9.00%	0.80
Ross Stripling	TOR	32	24	134.1	3.57	3.67	12	39.00%	7.70%	0.80
Max Scherzer	NYM	23	23	145.1	2.87	3.23	13	49.60%	7.50%	0.81
Sonny Gray	MIN	24	24	119.2	3.67	3.66	11	35.70%	9.40%	0.83
Adrian Sampson	CHC	21	19	104.1	4.40	4.39	10	40.00%	7.70%	0.86
George Kirby	SEA	25	25	130	3.31	3.33	13	38.10%	9.00%	0.90
Jesus Luzardo	MIA	18	18	100.1	3.39	3.11	10	36.00%	11.50%	0.90

Look at that ground ball rate of Andre Pallante. His mark was less than half of the rate of Blake Snell. Which guy has a better shot at limiting the home run next year ya think?

Max Scherzer and his near 50 percent fly ball rate was pretty fortunate to have so few home runs.

Cristian Javier was barely at one per nine despite a nearly 57 percent fly ball rate.

HOMERS PER NINE: 50-99.2 INNINGS PITCHED – BAD

Name	Team	G	GS	IP	xERA	xFIP	HR	FB%	HR/FB	HR/9
Elieser Hernandez	MIA	20	10	62.1	4.81	5.03	19	57.40%	17.40%	2.74
Mike Mayers	LAA	24	3	50.2	5.31	4.63	15	45.60%	20.80%	2.66
Bruce Zimmermann	BAL	15	13	73.2	6.53	4.42	21	40.60%	20.40%	2.57
Mike Minor	CIN	19	19	98	4.59	5.21	24	44.40%	16.40%	2.20
Adam Oller	OAK	19	14	74.1	5.82	6.06	17	51.40%	13.40%	2.06
Zach Logue	OAK	14	10	57	5.97	5.32	13	50.80%	13.40%	2.05
Adrian Martinez	OAK	12	12	57.2	5.38	4.11	13	35.90%	19.70%	2.03
Ian Kennedy	ARI	57	0	50.1	6.13	5.06	11	48.20%	13.90%	1.97
Caleb Smith	ARI	44	1	70	3.86	5.15	14	53.10%	13.60%	1.80
Austin Pruitt	OAK	39	1	55.1	3.94	4.18	11	40.30%	15.50%	1.79
Phil Bickford	LAD	60	0	61	3.46	3.57	12	47.80%	15.60%	1.77
Andrew Heaney	LAD	16	14	72.2	3.39	2.83	14	46.40%	17.90%	1.73
Brandon Hughes	CHC	57	0	57.2	3.86	3.78	11	44.40%	17.50%	1.72
Bailey Falter	PHI	20	16	84	4.62	4.13	16	44.00%	14.40%	1.71
Emilio Pagan	MIN	59	0	63	3.91	3.26	12	40.40%	18.50%	1.71
Anibal Sanchez	WSN	14	14	69.1	4.65	5.27	13	44.80%	14.30%	1.69
Colin Poche	TBR	65	0	58.2	3.51	4.05	11	49.00%	14.30%	1.69
Daniel Norris	– – –	41	3	58.2	4.49	3.99	11	34.70%	21.60%	1.69
Matthew Festa	SEA	53	0	54	3.72	3.47	10	44.70%	16.90%	1.67
Devin Smeltzer	MIN	15	12	70.1	4.34	4.98	13	45.70%	12.70%	1.66
Matt Bush	– – –	65	6	59.2	2.64	3.28	11	43.50%	17.20%	1.66
Dallas Keuchel	– – –	14	14	60.2	5.49	4.72	11	28.20%	17.20%	1.63
Noe Ramirez	ARI	55	0	50	4.17	4.44	9	41.70%	16.40%	1.62
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	16	16	84.1	5.07	4.46	15	42.70%	13.50%	1.60

Remember the two homers per nine thing is bad… look at some of the hideous numbers here. Wow.

Adrian Martinez was the only guy in the top-15 with a fly ball rate under 40 percent.

HOMERS PER NINE: 50-99.2 INNINGS PITCHED – GOOD

Name	Team	G	GS	IP	xERA	xFIP	HR	FB%	HR/FB	HR/9
Nick Nelson	PHI	47	2	68.2	3.64	4.47	1	38.30%	1.30%	0.13
Reynaldo Lopez	CHW	61	1	65.1	2.92	3.28	1	39.30%	1.50%	0.14
Duane Underwood Jr.	PIT	51	1	57.1	4.11	3.91	1	27.50%	2.10%	0.16
Brayan Bello	BOS	13	11	57.1	3.80	3.80	1	23.00%	2.40%	0.16
Clay Holmes	NYY	62	0	63.2	2.41	2.90	2	12.10%	10.00%	0.28
David Phelps	TOR	65	1	63.2	3.91	4.26	2	38.50%	3.10%	0.28
Evan Phillips	LAD	64	0	63	2.18	2.72	2	37.50%	3.90%	0.29
Devin Williams	MIL	65	0	60.2	2.04	2.36	2	28.80%	6.30%	0.30
Bryan Abreu	HOU	55	0	60.1	2.96	2.69	2	31.50%	4.90%	0.30
Gregory Soto	DET	64	0	60.1	4.08	4.59	2	36.30%	3.40%	0.30
Jason Foley	DET	60	0	60.1	3.62	3.56	2	25.30%	4.00%	0.30
Dennis Santana	TEX	63	1	58.2	3.89	4.20	2	30.40%	3.90%	0.31
Cionel Perez	BAL	66	0	57.2	3.62	3.56	2	30.10%	4.30%	0.31
Wandy Peralta	NYY	56	0	56.1	2.66	3.61	2	29.90%	4.30%	0.32
Ryne Stanek	HOU	59	0	54.2	3.19	3.95	2	39.70%	3.80%	0.33
Alex Vesia	LAD	63	0	54.1	2.79	3.03	2	42.50%	3.90%	0.33
Jose Alvarado	PHI	59	0	51	2.53	2.16	2	24.30%	7.70%	0.35
Tyler Rogers	SFG	68	0	75.2	3.36	4.12	3	25.50%	4.90%	0.36
Matt Moore	TEX	63	0	74	2.83	3.87	3	39.40%	4.20%	0.36
Emmanuel Clase	CLE	77	0	72.2	1.97	2.18	3	20.00%	8.30%	0.37
Bryan Baker	BAL	66	2	69.2	3.22	3.56	3	35.30%	4.60%	0.39
Rafael Montero	HOU	71	0	68.1	2.70	3.22	3	31.20%	5.70%	0.40
Hector Neris	HOU	70	0	65.1	3.29	3.29	3	42.80%	4.40%	0.41
John Schreiber	BOS	64	0	65	2.57	3.01	3	31.00%	6.10%	0.42
Trevor Stephan	CLE	66	0	63.2	2.34	2.81	3	33.10%	5.70%	0.42
Edwin Diaz	NYM	61	0	62	1.69	1.04	3	33.30%	9.40%	0.44
Sam Hentges	CLE	57	0	62	2.79	2.67	3	23.00%	8.80%	0.44
Luis Garcia	SDP	64	0	61	2.83	3.11	3	28.10%	6.40%	0.44
Daniel Bard	COL	57	0	60.1	2.49	3.30	3	29.90%	6.80%	0.45
Tanner Houck	BOS	32	4	60	3.86	3.68	3	26.10%	7.10%	0.45

The top-4 guys allowed a single homer: Nick Nelson, Reynaldo Lopez, Duane Underwood, Brayan Bello.

Check out Clay Holmes fly ball rate. Conversely, check out the mark Alex Vesia.

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