Paulie’s Gambling Education Series, pt. 9: “Middle” Bets

What is a “middle”?

A middle is a situation where you can win 2 bets that are placed on the opposite side of each other. Middles are most often found in the NBA and the NFL. Here is a basic example:

• Let’s suppose we take the Celtics at -2.5 against the Raptors. The line later shifts to Celtics -5.5 and we take the Raptors +5.5. We have established a “middle”. In this scenario the payouts would be as such:

• Celtics win by 1-2 points or Raptors win: Win Raptors +5.5 and Lose Celtics -2.5

• Celtics win by 6 or more points: Lose Raptors +5.5 and Win Celtics -2.5

• Celtics win by 3-5 points: Win Raptors +5.5 and Win Celtics -2.5

What can be “middled”?

• Point spreads

• Over/unders

What are the benefits of “middling”?

Assuming bets are made at -110, we only have to hit the middle 1 out of every 21 times to break even. Middles, when done correctly, allow a player to have large upside with minimal risk. You essentially are risking 0.1 units to win 2 units every time you have a middle opportunity. Middles are a great way to minimize risk and build a bankroll.

When to middle?

Middling is most often done via Live or Halftime betting. Here are some examples where middles can be advantageous (this is by no means an exhaustive list):

• Live betting with a superstar:

  • Some of the superstars in the NBA provide great live betting opportunities as their team’s performance varies greatly when they are on and off the court.

  • Examples for this would include Lebron, Steph Curry, etc. Here is a hypothetical example for the Lakers and Lebron:

    • Lebron has been playing very well against the Kings and the Lakers have a sizeable lead and the current live line is Lakers -13.5.

    • We see that Lebron is about to sub out of the game for awhile so we take Kings +13.5 knowing that there is a fairly good chance that the Kings perform better than the Lakers with Lebron off of the court.

    • Ideally, we see a Kings rally and when Lebron comes back into the game later we are able to buy the Lakers back maybe around -9.5.

    • Thus we have established a middle, where if the final result is a Laker win by 10 to 13 points we win 2 units, else we lose 0.1 units.

• Halftime bet in a game where FG% is really high in first half:

  • Initial results are better than expected (such as the teams shooting lights out). Example:

    • We took over 220.5 prior to the game and the game has been high scoring such that at halftime we have the ability to buy under 235.5 and try and middle this game.

    • We take that bet and now have a situation where we win 2 units if the total ends 221 to 235 and lose 0.1 units otherwise.

• Other factors that can lead to middle opportunities: injuries, foul trouble, and many more

Things to be aware of when trying to “middle”:

• Make sure when placing bets that you are doing so on lines with minimal juice. A -110 line provides a break even if the middle hits once every 21 times. A -120 line changes that to once every 11 times.

• I’m not saying to try and middle every single bet you make, but be cognizant of opportunities where you can middle and attack when sizeable middles pop up.

• Middles are not risk free. Just because you made a bet live with the intention of middling it later on doesn’t mean that you are guaranteed to have that opportunity later. It is best to try for middles when you have a very good chance at predicting the flow of the game.