In the following MLB weekly preview, we have a game breakdown for all 30 teams, pitching rankings and latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
They say the third go-around is usually when one hits their stride. You know, they. Them. The people who know. Now entering my third season of providing the MLB Weekly Preview, I have never felt more confident in my data collection systems and resulting analysis. All of which are extremely time-consuming, but I could give a rat’s ass when I see our subscribers posting league-winning celebrations. Never was I more proud than what we accomplished together in the pandemic shortened season of 2020. With a tear in my eye…
While I had a disappointing fourth-place finish in my Roto OC, every other league was first or second. The league which ground my gears the most was my championship loss in Fantrax Dynasty, a league I’ve now belonged to for well over 11 years (aka my old ass can’t remember when I joined) and haven’t won. However, I learned something crucial that will benefit me this season: using bulk relievers with elite ratios whose value is non-contingent upon role.
That’s what this game is, a constant learning curve, and I don’t mean Jesús Luzardo’s turkey sub! Am I the greatest fantasy baseball player who has ever walked God’s green earth? No, I am not. But I outwork my opponents, and this work ethic is what got me to where I am today. Some of you reading this may be more successful, and I applaud you for that, although I’ve been crushing fantasy baseball since 1997. So, I got veteran experience going for me, which is nice. But this doesn’t mean we don’t learn from each other to be the very best at what we do. I subscribe to symbiotic relationships. With this in mind, let’s go crush it!!!
In the following weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 MLB teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL information to help you dominate this week’s matchup and through the entirety of your seasonal league. Plus, new this season: Stolen Base Targets!
Scroll right to the part of the MLB Weekly Preview you need in just one click!
Below, you will find an interactive table of contents. Simply click on the section of the article you wanna read and boom.. presto… alakazam.
MLB Split Report
Six weeks of the 2021 season have been completed. One can get away with the “it’s early” excuse, but the clock is ticking on its validity. Players have amassed enough plate appearances (PA) and innings pitched (IP) to establish firm primary indications of where the value lies. Now is a good time to review the top hitters vs. left/right-handed pitchers, and inversely, top pitchers vs. left/right-handed hitters. Here are the top men in each category, and I’ll also take a look at some home/road splits. As the season progresses, every 6-7 weeks, we will review and update these reports to identify the trends and see the movement.
*Stats as of the completion of games on 5/5/21
Batting
Hits / PA
XBH: Extra-base Hits
HR: Home Run
RBI: Runs Batted In
BB/K: Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio
Batting Average / On-base% / Slugging% / OPS
ISO: Isolated Power
wOBA: Weighted On-base Average
wRC+: Weighted Runs Created Plus
Pitching
ERA: Earned Run Average
K%: Strikeout Rate
BB%: Walk Rate
GB%: Groundball Rate
HC%: Hard Contact Rate
Batting Average / On-base% / Slugging% (Allowed)
wOBA: Weighted On-base Average (Allowed)
Top Hitters vs. LHP
- Cedric Mullins (LH) – 18/51, 5 XBH, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .383/.431/.574/1.006, .191 ISO, .434 wOBA, 188 wRC+
- Nick Solak (RH) – 17/53, 5 XBH, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 0.2 BB/K, .347/.396/.571/.968, .224 ISO, .418 wOBA, 177 wRC+
- Alex Bregman (RH) – 15/49, 4 XBH, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .341/.408/.568/.976, .227 ISO, .409 wOBA, 175 wRC+
- Yuli Gurriel (RH) – 15/51, 6 XBH, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 0.8 BB/K, .326/.392/.543/.936, .217 ISO, .403 wOBA, 171 wRC+
- Joey Gallo (LH) – 14/64, 5 XBH, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .275/.422/.490/.912, .216 ISO, .401 wOBA, 166 wRC+
- Matt Chapman (RH) – 11/48, 5 XBH, 4 HR, 5 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .262/.354/.571/.926, .310 ISO, .395 wOBA, 165 wRC+
- Jed Lowrie (SW) – 18/54, 6 XBH, 12 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .353/.389/.471/.859, .118 ISO, .375 wOBA, 151 wRC+
- Jose Altuve (RH) – 17/48, 2 XBH, 5 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .386/.417/.432/.848, .045 ISO, .372 wOBA, 149 wRC+
- Yordan Alvarez (LH) – 14/50, 5 XBH, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0.1 BB/K, .318/.360/.477/.837, .159 ISO, .358 wOBA, 139 wRC+
- Trey Mancini (RH) – 14/50, 5 XBH, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 0.2 BB/K, .298/.320/.532/.852, .234 ISO, .361 wOBA, 137 wRC+
Min: 45 PA – Cedric the Entertainer is serving as an excellent table setter for Baltimore with power and an above-average .382 OBP in the early going. A large basis for his overall numbers surprisingly has come off the same handedness. He leads this split in hits, OBP, SLG, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ (bold). Solak has been a terror for southpaws even if an impatient one (.2 BB/K). The BA, wOBA and wRC+ are elevated from career norms, indicating potential regression. However, career marks of .325 (BA), .380 (wOBA) and 141 (wRC+) are not drastically lower than what we’ve seen so far this season. He makes for a nice target if your team is off to a rough start. Gotta love them bandaids, but this one has some staying power!
A triad of regularly lefty-mashing Astros makes their presence known as per usual. No trash cans required. Yet, Yordan making this list shows the versatility and depth of their lineup. Gallo may be a surprise for some, but the left-handed slugger also popped up here on the first split report of 2020 (career 117 wRC+ vs. LHP). Lastly, two feel-good stories in Mancini and Lowrie round out our list. Every time I see a Mancini homer on Quick Pitch, I get jacked, and funny what healthy knees can do.
Top Hitters vs. RHP
- Mike Trout (RH) – 28/77, 15 XBH, 8 HR, 15 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .431/.519/.908/1.427, .477 ISO, .583 wOBA, 292 wRC+
- J.D. Martinez (RH) – 28/89, 15 XBH, 8 HR, 23 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .368/.461/.776/1.237, .408 ISO, .515 wOBA, 239 wRC+
- Jesse Winker (LH) – 28/75, 12 XBH, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .418/.480/.791/1.271, .373 ISO, .533 wOBA, 233 wRC+
- Jared Walsh (LH) – 25/80, 8 XBH, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 0.8 BB/K, .379/.475/.667/1.142, .288 ISO, .479 wOBA, 220 wRC+
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (RH) – 30/99, 12 XBH, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 0.7 BB/K, .361/.465/.651/1.115, .289 ISO, .468 wOBA, 209 wRC+
- José Ramírez (SW) – 18/75, 12 XBH, 8 HR, 15 RBI, 0.7 BB/K, .286/.373/.746/1.119, .460 ISO, .455 wOBA, 200 wRC+
- Nate Lowe (LH) – 20/73, 8 XBH, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .323/.425/.613/1.038, .290 ISO, .443 wOBA, 194 wRC+
- Bryce Harper (LH) – 21/75, 9 XBH, 6 HR, 9 RBI, 1.0 BB/K, .333/.440/.667/1.107, .333 ISO, .461 wOBA, 190 wRC+
- Shohei Ohtani (LH) – 22/78, 14 XBH, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 0.2 BB/K, .301/.346/.685/1.031, .384 ISO, .433 wOBA, 188 wRC+
- Giancarlo Stanton (RH) – 25/84, 11 XBH, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .325/.381/.649/1.030, .325 ISO, .434 wOBA, 188 wRC+
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (RH) – 27/103, 15 XBH, 8 HR, 16 RBI, 1.1 BB/K, .314/.417/.686/1.104, .372 ISO, .457 wOBA, 187 wRC+
Min: 70 PA – Not a surprise seeing Trout leading most categories here. Can you say Ohtani/Trout/Walsh stack against righties!!! Winker may be the most underrated player in the game but not by his owners. Overall, on the season, he’s batting .359 with a .453 wOBA and 184 wRC+. His WAR is 1.2. All six of his HRs have come against righties along with five doubles and a triple. Only one double against a fellow lefty. Vlad Jr. is looking very svelte and using that thin waistline to rack up hits (34 total). Ramírez is tied for most HR against RHP with the likes of Trout, J.D. and Acuña (Stanton got his eighth after this sample data was collected). Like Solak, Nate Lowe is a newfound surprise in the lineup. Best of all, Lowe’s .354 BABIP is only 0.013 higher than his professional career average.
Yermín Mercedes just missed the cutoff. I expect him to be here next report.
Top Pitchers vs. LHH
- Clayton Kershaw (LH) – 12.1 IP, 2.19 ERA, 24.4% K%, 2.4% BB%, 53.3% GB%, 26.7% HC%, .125/.146/.125, .125 wOBA
- Gerrit Cole (RH) – 20.1 IP, 0.89 ERA, 51.4% K%, 0.0% BB%, 21.2% GB%, 27.3% HC%, .130/.143/.174, .140 wOBA
- Huascar Ynoa (RH) – 14.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 26.9% K%, 3.8% BB%, 54.3% GB%, 44.4% HC%, .140/.173/.180, .160 wOBA
- Michael Kopech (RH) – 11.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 50.0% K%, 9.5% BB%, 56.3% GB%, 23.5% HC%, .105/.190/.184, .165 wOBA
- John Means (LH) – 11.0 IP, 0.82 ERA, 26.3% K%, 7.9% BB%, 36.0% GB%, 16.0% HC%, .114/.184/.200, .178 wOBA
- Matt Harvey (RH) – 13.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 14.0% K%, 2.0% BB%, 36.6% GB%, 36.6% HC%, .149/.180/.255, .191 wOBA
- Brandon Woodruff (RH) – 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 31.3% K%, 9.0% BB%, 42.5% GB%, 37.5% HC%, .148/.224/.180, .191 wOBA
- Tyler Glasnow (RH) – 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 38.2% K%, 4.4% BB%, 41.0% GB%, 30.8% HC%, .138/.176/.262, .192 wOBA
- Tyler Mahle (RH) – 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 35.1% K%, 10.8% BB%, 41.0% GB%, 30.8% HC%, .123/.230/.185, .201 wOBA
- Kyle Gibson (RH) – 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 15.9% K%, 0.0% BB%, 51.9% GB%, 27.8% HC%, .169/.217/.231, .203 wOBA
Min: 10 IP – Quick question… What year is it? Backstory: I received the second COVID-19 vaccine dose earlier in the day before researching the data for this split. Feeling tired midday, I rested my head before tackling the data. Woke up, slapped some water on the face, and opened up my laptop to good ole’ Fangraphs. Much to my surprise, Matt Harvey is eighth in wOBA in the split. Is this real life? Did I time travel? Nope, he’s been that good against lefties. No longer trying to recapture his former glory and velocity, this old Dark Knight has learned how to pitch and has become stream worthy once again. Good on you, Matt! And talk about feel-good stories, look no further than his teammate John Means, who ranks seventh in wOBA in the split.
Usual suspect Keyser Soze, er um, Clayton Kershaw leads the pack and continues to brutalize fellow lefthanders. He and Means are the only southpaws on our list, as teams are stacking up their LHHs against our RHPs. As we move through the year, we’ll see more lefty hurlers on this list. However, this list is useful to see which right-handers are faring well against lefties. Two young guns who stand out are Kopech and Ynoa, where the latter has yet to yield a run against LHH. Kopech is an interesting study as the longman for the Pale Hose. Two starts and eight appearances overall, I don’t care what role Chicago is using him in; his ratios keep him as a permanent fixture in my open pitcher slots (43.6% K-rate, 48.6% GB-rate, 0.44 HR/9). Woodruff & Glasnow have been aces, and Ray’s guy, Mahle, is Cincy’s real ace.
Top Pitchers vs. RHH
- Jacob deGrom (RH) – 21.2 IP, 0.42 ERA, 51.4% K%, 1.4% BB%, 40.0% GB%, 22.9% HC%, .125/.135/.194, .142 wOBA
- Joe Musgrove (RH) – 12.2 IP, 2.13 ERA, 37.0% K%, 6.5% BB%, 53.8% GB%, 30.8% HC%, .093/.152/.163, .147 wOBA
- Corbin Burnes (RH) – 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 56.6% K%, 0.0% BB%, 45.5% GB%, 31.8% HC%, .135/.151/.212, .160 wOBA
- Cristian Javier (RH) – 13.1 IP, 0.68 ERA, 37.5% K%, 8.3% BB%, 29.2% GB%, 29.2% HC%, .095/.208/.167, .184 wOBA
- Alex Wood (LH) – 17.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 30.8% K%, 6.2% BB%, 69.2% GB%, 22.5% HC%, .133/.200/.200, .186 wOBA
- Adbert Alzolay (RH) – 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 35.3% K%, 5.9% BB%, 37.9% GB%, 24.1% HC%, .128/.196/.213, .189 wOBA
- Anthony DeSclafani (RH) – 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 20.8% K%, 9.1% BB%, 51.9% GB%, 18.5% HC%, .129/.208/.200, .191 wOBA
- Carlos Rodón (LH) – 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 35.1% K%, 10.4% BB%, 38.5% GB%, 28.2% HC%, .091/.221/.167, .194 wOBA
- José Berríos (RH) – 18.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 38.8% K%, 4.5% BB%, 44.4% GB%, 33.3% HC%, .145/.209/.210, .194 wOBA
- John Means (LH) – 35.0 IP, 1.54 ERA, 31.3% K%, 5.5% BB%, 35.8% GB%, 32.1% HC%, .140/.188/.248, .195 wOBA
Min: 10 IP – Could Means be this year’s Shane Bieber? Even last year’s Cy Young Award winner didn’t show this level of dominance against both sides of the plate. However, I will slow my roll cause it’s still early (excuse!), but something to keep an eye out for in future split reports. Did someone say Cy Young? No surprise the two-time award winner leads this list with a .142 wOBA in the split. His strikeout numbers and velocity are inspiring as well as carrying my NFBC OC team. For Musgrove, this six-shooter has been more than a one-hit-wonder by firing San Diego’s first no-no. He’s been doing a phenomenal job keeping the ball on the ground (48.6%) rather than the air (29.7%). Burnes has been the Captain to Woodruff’s Tennille. What balance in that Milwaukee rotation!
Gotta admit Wood has been pretty good in his age-30 season. Good home pitcher’s park, even with fences moved in, and his strong sweeping slider is responsible for a gorgeous 69.2% GB-rate in the split. The pitch is getting a high percentage of swings-and-misses with a 44.3% Whiff percentage (93rd percentile Chase rate), as well. The Pride of Freehold, DeSclafani, agrees with the new address in San Fran. Finally, Rodón is another lefty who is experiencing success vs. RHHs. He’s been a true revelation so far.
Best Hitters (HOME)
- J.D. Martinez (RH) – 27/79, 14 XBH, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 0.8 BB/K, .391/.468/.739/1.207, .348 ISO, .505 wOBA, 228 wRC+
- Kris Bryant (RH) – 18/76, 10 XBH, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .273/.368/.515/.884, .242 ISO, .377 wOBA, 139 wRC+
- Trevor Story (RH) – 22/75, 9 XBH, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 0.3 BB/K, .324/.360/.529/.889, .206 ISO, .372 wOBA, 107 wRC+
- Mark Canha (RH) – 16/88, 5 XBH, 3 HR, 3 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .225/.375/.394/.769, .169 ISO, .349 wOBA, 138 wRC+
- Kiké Hernández (RH) – 17/77, 8 XBH, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 0.5 BB/K, .250/.325/.471/.795, .221 ISO, .341 wOBA, 115 wRC+
Min: 75 PA – Clean sweep for J.D… truly remarkable how he continues to hit and relieving after a down 2020. A true creature of habit, Martinez is looking like the version we saw in 2019 before the damn world lost its mind. Despite some early bad weather and winds blowing in at Wrigley, Bryant continues to enjoy his home cooking. Can one of you do me a favor? I’m looking for the guys who were preaching his demise. I can’t seem to find them on Twitter, almost as if they are hiding. And you knew there would be at least one Rockie hitter here. That’s my Story. Mark Canha has helped me cash in DFS several times this season already. Canha has the power!
By the way, schedules over this first sample size can alter the numbers a bit if teams were largely on the road vs. back at home. This will stabilize as we move through the season and create more reports.
Best Hitters (AWAY)
- Justin Turner (RH) – 21/78, 7 XBH, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 0.6 BB/K, .313/.397/.507/.905, .194 ISO, .391 wOBA, 146 wRC+
- Mookie Betts (RH) – 18/77, 7 XBH, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 1.0 BB/K, .277/.390/.446/.836, .169 ISO, .366 wOBA, 130 wRC+
- Corey Seager (LH) –19/85, 6 XBH, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 0.7 BB/K, .264/.376/.417/.793, .153 ISO, .349 wOBA, 119 wRC+
- Marcus Semien (RH) – 16/77, 5 XBH, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 0.4 BB/K, .235/.312/.426/.738, .191 ISO, .321 wOBA, 110 wRC+
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (RH) – 19/76, 4 XBH, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 0.2 BB/K, .271/.316/.371/.687, .100 ISO, .302 wOBA, 97 wRC+
Min: 75 PA – Who knew stacking was created on the West Coast, as once again a team from LA has three representatives on a split list. Ironically, the damage is being done away from the palm trees and the sunshine. Turner, specifically, has been a road warrior. Are the Dodgers thankful they re-signed him? I think so! I am surprised to see a Blue Jay in this away split and not home. Dunedin has been a hitter’s paradise. Issue is they’ve played more on the road (12 home vs. 19 road), and they’ll shift back to Sahlen Field in Buffalo come 6/1. According to ELITEDATA Park Factors, Sahlen Field increased runs (1.096), but it significantly decreased homers (0.760). IKF is proving owners right who took a flier on him in drafts.
Best Pitchers (HOME)
- Carlos Rodón (LH) – 15.0 IP, 0.60 ERA, 38.8% K%, 2.0% BB%, 50.0% GB%, 21.4% HC%, .043/.082/.064, .073 wOBA
- Jacob deGrom (RH) – 23.0 IP, 0.78 ERA, 48.1% K%, 1.3% BB%, 45.0% GB%, 30.0% HC%, .128/.139/.244, .164 wOBA
- Anthony DeSclafani (RH) – 15.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 30.4% K%, 3.6% BB%, 48.6% GB%, 24.3% HC%, .167/.196/.185, .173 wOBA
- Corbin Burnes (RH) – 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 46.2% K%, 0.0% BB%, 55.9% GB%, 32.4% HC%, .172/.185/.281, .202 wOBA
- Cristian Javier (RH) – 17.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 34.4% K%, 9.4% BB%, 31.4% GB%, 25.7% HC%, .140/.234/.193, .204 wOBA
Min: 15 IP – Rodón is showing the promise we always knew he had. He has been particularly effective in the unfriendly confines of Guaranteed Rate Field (at least for pitchers; 2021 Park Factors: HR – 1.238, R – 0.966). deGrom is showing, if you’re a RHH facing off with him at Citi Field, you have a less than zero chance. Is that even possible? deGrom says, “Yes!” Tony Disco is following in the same footsteps as deGrom for RHH futility at his home ballpark. One of the finer stories in all of baseball. Oh, look, that Corbin Burnes guy again! Finally, we have the second appearance of Cristian Javier. Javier is a high-upside guy who can battle with consistency at times. So far this season, consistency has been his middle name. He gets such great movement on his breaking ball with a three-quarter delivery, presenting issues for opposing batters.
Best Pitchers (AWAY)
- Brandon Woodruff (RH) – 19.0 IP, 0.47 ERA, 35.4% K%, 7.7% BB%, 45.9% GB%, 29.7% HC%, .067/.138/.067, .107 wOBA
- Julio Urías (LH) – 21.0 IP, 0.86 ERA, 37.5% K%, 2.8% BB%, 48.8% GB%, 16.3% HC%, .114/.139/.171, .139 wOBA
- John Means (LH) – 34.2 IP, 0.78 ERA, 32.0% K%, 4.1% BB%, 37.2% GB%, 30.8% HC%, .120/.156/.179, .152 wOBA
- Danny Duffy (LH) – 18.0 IP, 0.50 ERA, 29.9% K%, 9.0% BB%, 29.3% GB%, 39.0% HC%, .131/.209/.197, .191 wOBA
- José Berríos (RH) – 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 32.8% K%, 3.3% BB%, 43.2% GB%, 27.0% HC%, .158/.213/.228, .201 wOBA
Min: 15 IP – Again completing the Yin and Yang of Milwaukee’s rotation, Woodruff is tops on the road, while Burnes is dominating at home. Julio Urías pops up for this first time in our initial split report. It has been a true breakout campaign to present, and I suspect we will be seeing him pop up more often as we move through the season. In his young career, he’s been a reverse splits kind of arm, but this is beginning to even out, and I suspect we will see him among the ranks of top pitchers vs. LHH. For now, we’ll “settle” on another dominant Dodger road warrior. Didn’t we just talk about Means? “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” Or maybe this COVID-19 vaccine is fucking with my head. Nope, Means is just good at pitching.
We’ll wrap this pupper up with Duffy and Berríos. Previously, I discussed Duffy’s fantastic season. He’s been solid all over, but particularly on the road. The question remains… how long will this ride last. As for Berríos, he’s another hurler who has battled with consistency. At Target Field, he’s had two games of four earned runs allowed (10 overall, three starts). However, it has been a different story on the road as we see here. The progression is at hand, and owners have to be pleased with the overall results so far to date.
As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team you would like me to cover in this section of the MLB Weekly Preview, drop a line in our VIP Chat Room or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.
MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: Above, you’ll see both the White Sox and Royals play seven games. Although, this is a ‘lil fugazi since the two teams will play a seven-inning doubleheader on 5/14. I touch on this because not all seven-game weeks are created equal due to the infinite wisdom of Major League Baseball with this idiotic rule.
If you are between a White Sox/Royals hitter and another team’s hitter who plays seven full games, obvious advantage to the other team’s hitter by four innings. Even if this other team plays six games, 6 x 9 = 54, while 5 x 9 + 2 x 7 = 59. Still an advantage of five innings, but is it enough to give say, Hunter Dozier or Adam Eaton the leg up over equal or greater talent? To further complicate the matter, because that’s what I do, Chicago is home all week. So, we may see their hitters lose a few bottom-of-the-ninth (seventh) PA if Chicago has the lead. To be fair, let’s say this happens three times during the week. Now, the edge is down to two measly innings. It is important to consider these things while setting those weekly and biweekly leagues. This is why daily leagues rule!
To conclude, Pov here has the solution to all our problems, no matter if you are a seasonal player, DFS player or just an avid fan of America’s pastime. With a compromise between owners, players and fans, make the first game of the doubleheader nine and the “tacked-on” game seven. This way, you take less baseball away from us. And that second game, which was postponed due to weather, COVID, rats or raccoons, can be seven since it may have been a shortened contest anyway had it played out the original day of schedule. BOOM!
A Few Areas to Target
Red Invasion of Coors
The Reds begin this week with three games at pitcher-friendly PNC Park (Park Factors: R – 1.004, HR – 0.906, H – 0.997). However, the subsequent four games at Coors Field make up for it in spades. They’re scheduled to face all right-handed pitching throughout the week, making Jesse Winker and Tyler Naquin tremendous plays this week. As for the Rockies, they are home ALL WEEK LONG! This is why you roster their hitters… Let’s GOOOOO!
It’s Always Sunny in… Boston?
Red Sox play seven games this week, and the pitching matchups are SAWFT. Ok, soft may be overly dramatic with such scheduled arms as Sean Manaea, CBass and Dylan “Whoa” Bundy. But that’s the best of the bunch. Plus, all games are at hitter-friendly venues. At least five of their seven games will come against righties, which is especially noteworthy for left-handed hitters Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers.
To Cub, or Not to Cub? That Is the Question!
The Cubs will have the services of a designated hitter for all five of their games this week (see Interleague Outlook below). The keyword, though, is five. To pile on, they also face reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Shane Bieber. Makes even starting Kris Bryant difficult despite being second for homers in the Majors.
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. On 5/12, Matt Harvey lines up for a return to Citi Field. This will be the first time since donning the orange and blue and makes for a great storyline. Hey, the way my Mets have been woefully hitting with RISP, Harvey makes for an interesting stream. What is more vital here are lost at-bats for Mountcastle. He’s not a good defender and stands to sit at least one game as we saw in Miami on 4/20. Stewart or Austin Hays may sit if Baltimore chooses to keep Mountcastle’s bat in the lineup for one game. My lean is him sitting for the two games.
New York will have the extra batter for three to conclude the week. However, their pitchers haven’t been too shabby… #PitchersWhoRake. The most probable scenario is Dom Smith in the DH role with the better defender Almora playing the outfield. If Brandon Nimmo returns from the IL when first eligible (5/14), Mets may opt to give a breather to Dom, who has been struggling. Speaking of breathers, my boy France got one on 5/9 due to his wicked slump. He has gone 2-for-40 in the last 11 games, sending the BA spiraling from .325 to .236. Mariners could continue this strategy to give him more time for head-clearing (off day 5/10; @LAD 5/11-12). Expect Moore at the keystone and Mitch Haniger in right as per usual.
Rangers are scheduled to face Alex Wood (LH) and Logan Webb (RH). Both Calhoun and Dahl could sit against the lefty in favor of Khris Davis. However, the likeliest outcome for the two games is Willie in left field with Dahl and Davis riding the pine. Calhoun has been decent against southpaws with a .422 SLG, .712 OPS, .183 ISO in 197 career PA. Finally, I’m curious why Toronto called up Tellez to play three games only to now sit for three in Atlanta. He could spell Vlad Guerrero at first, but the Jays are gonna need the A lineup in offensive battles against the Bravos. Tellez can rake, albeit in a streaky manner, and had a homer on 5/9. With George Springer back on the shelf, I get the need and happy he’s back in the bigs. Just wish I could use him more this week!
*Rivalry Series: None, but six of the series are former World Series matchups – Cubs/Tigers, Orioles/Mets, Blue Jays/Braves, Phillies/Blue Jays, Rangers/Giants and Cubs/Indians, with the latter for sure to have the most residual heat.
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE
- Shane Bieber (CHC, @SEA)
- Walker Buehler (SEA,
MIA) ← Dodgers will go with a BP game on 5/16 to mitigate IP. - Lance McCullers Jr. (LAA, TEX)
- John Means (@NYM,
NYY) ← UPDATE (5/15 4:30p): Means being pushed to 5/19 for rest after throwing a lot of innings recently, acc. to manager Brandon Hyde. Damn it, not even a two-start for next week, but if it keeps him fresh, I’m all for it! - Pablo López (@ARI, @LAD)
- Kenta Maeda (@CHW, OAK)
- Tyler Mahle (@PIT, @COL)
- Marcus Stroman (BAL, @TB)
- Max Fried (TOR, @MIL)
- Freddy Peralta (STL, ATL)
- Nathan Eovaldi (OAK, LAA)
- Matthew Boyd (KC, CHC)
- Kyle Gibson (@SF, @HOU)
- Madison Bumgarner (MIA,
WSH) ← Pushed to 5/17 (spot vacated by Gallen) - Brady Singer (@DET, @CHW)
Other Options: Chris Bassitt (@BOS, @MIN), Robbie Ray (@ATL, PHI), JT Brubaker (CIN, SF), Alex Wood (TEX, @PIT), Kwang Hyun Kim (@MIL, @SD), Ryan Yarbrough (NYY, NYM), Yusei Kikuchi (@LAD, CLE), Jon Gray (SD, CIN), Dylan Cease (MIN, KC), Jordan Montgomery (@TB, @BAL), Mitch Keller (CIN, SF), Luke Weaver (MIA, WSH), Erick Fedde (PHI, @ARI), Dinelson Lamet (@COL, STL)
For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR MAY 10 – 16
Pitcher Spotlight: Huascar Ynoa
Short one this week since the Split Report took up a bulk of my time. Anyone else getting sick of the work bulk yet? Anyway, I wanted to keep this fun fact from the original copy because it is too crazy!
This past week, Ynoa allowed zero earned runs on the mound and hit a tater in back-to-back starts (including a grand slam). Only two other pitchers in MLB history have done this: Rick Ankiel (STL, 2000) & Don Larson (NYY, 1958). Shohei Who?
Ynoa is a prime example of the importance of patience. Signed as an international free agent in 2014, he pitched at every level on his way to the Majors in 2019. Developed and full of maturity at the young age of 22 (turns 23 on 5/28). A lot to like here!
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Jacob deGrom (right side tightness) left his return start on 5/9 after five innings and 68 pitches. After throwing two warm-up pitches before the sixth, he called out the training staff to let them know something was amiss. DeGrom was cruising, giving up one run on one hit with six strikeouts. He did walk three and was visibly shaking his right arm and stretching his side. Mets are labeling the early exit as precautionary. This discomfort tends to bother him from time to time throughout his career but never caused him to miss any time. According to manager Luis Rojas, “This (injury) is different than what it was before,” and deGrom will receive an MRI. Great! Continue to monitor.
*Update: DeGrom received a “positive initial prognosis” after MRI, but Mets are playing it safe by placing him on 10-day IL. Coupled with off-days this week, he may miss just the one start.
Ronald Acuña Jr. (hand) left his game on 5/8 after being hit by a pitch on his left hand. Initial X-rays were negative, and Atlanta labels the outfielder as day-to-day with a left pinky finger contusion. Acuña owners may have dodged a bullet but need to monitor as the swelling reduces, which often can reveal further injury. *Update: Acuña in 5/9 starting lineup for Sunday Night Baseball.
Corbin Burnes (undisclosed) Update – Burnes will throw a BP session on 5/10 as he has been cleared for health and safety protocols. If all goes well, he should be activated later in the week. I placed him in Milwaukee’s open pitching slot in the rankings above.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAM OF THE WEEK
→ Adbert Alzolay, RH CHC (@CLE; 39% owned) – No two-start streamers I’m enamored with this week. You could go to Luis Garcia (LAA, TEX) for strikeout upside, especially against Texas. Although, he doesn’t go deep enough for my liking. A lot of us are in start-capped leagues, which Garcia is not as useful. Unlimited Starts / Point Leagues? Fire away. Fedde mentioned above is not a bad option, either. Arizona is struggling offensively with missing pieces. When this happens, my strategy is to target an early-week streamer who is more reliable to make his start for weekly leagues. For daily leagues, this has an advantage, too. You can continually flip the spot.
As for Alzolay, he has the unfortunate pleasure of going up against Shane Bieber. Thus, the win probability goes down. But didn’t Ray tell you to remove wins from your fantasy baseball league, or at least combine with quality starts (QSW)? Alzolay’s new toy and best pitch is his slider, throwing it 46.1% of the time this season according to Baseball Savant. In contrast, he threw the pitch 6.7% of the time in 2020. The Whiff rate on the pitch is 38.5%, and the PutAway percentage is 26.6%. This will be key to his success, as Cleveland hitters do poorly against the slider. Overall, Alzolay is 80th percentile in Whiff% and K-rate.
Honorable Mention: Garcia & Fedde
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, May 16, 2021
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Alex Wood (LHP, SF) | 4-0 | 1.80 | 2.88 | 3.13 | 2.84 | 25.9% | 7.1% | 36.5% | 19.4% | ||||||||
Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT) | 2-4 | 7.81 | 5.19 | 5.18 | 5.31 | 19.8% | 13.0% | 50.0% | 38.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Jordan Montgomery (LHP, NYY) | 2-1 | 3.96 | 3.74 | 3.72 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 5.9% | 36.2% | 36.9% | ||||||||
Adam Plutko* (RHP, BAL) | 1-0 | 1.27 | 5.34 | 4.93 | 2.81 | 17.1% | 11.0% | 32.2% | 48.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Chase Anderson (RHP, PHI) | 2-3 | 5.23 | 5.23 | 5.03 | 5.52 | 18.8% | 10.9% | 38.3% | 40.2% | ||||||||
Robbie Ray (LHP, TOR) | 1-1 | 3.38 | 3.46 | 3.45 | 4.21 | 28.1% | 7.2% | 51.1% | 38.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
José Quintana (LHP, LAA) | 0-3 | 9.00 | 3.82 | 4.50 | 4.94 | 31.2% | 17.4% | 42.9% | 27.8% | ||||||||
Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, BOS) | 4-2 | 4.20 | 3.49 | 3.70 | 3.06 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 32.6% | 26.7% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Kyle Hendricks (RHP, CHC) | 2-4 | 6.23 | 4.44 | 4.43 | 5.96 | 18.2% | 6.1% | 36.1% | 32.2% | ||||||||
Matthew Boyd (LHP, DET) | 2-3 | 1.94 | 4.89 | 4.57 | 3.41 | 17.9% | 5.6% | 35.8% | 45.0% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Marcus Stroman (RHP, NYM) | 3-3 | 1.99 | 3.23 | 3.59 | 3.71 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 45.8% | 21.7% | ||||||||
Josh Fleming* (LHP, TB) | 2-3 | 2.73 | 4.62 | 4.68 | 4.04 | 13.4% | 9.2% | 34.4% | 24.7% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Kyle Gibson (RHP, TEX) | 3-0 | 2.28 | 3.81 | 4.02 | 2.97 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 34.6% | 30.0% | ||||||||
Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP, HOU) | 3-1 | 3.10 | 3.63 | 3.84 | 3.51 | 28.5% | 12.1% | 47.9% | 26.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Chris Bassitt (RHP, OAK) | 3-2 | 3.54 | 3.36 | 3.38 | 3.15 | 26.6% | 6.0% | 34.9% | 30.2% | ||||||||
Kenta Maeda (RHP, MIN) | 2-2 | 5.08 | 3.99 | 4.08 | 4.85 | 20.5% | 6.0% | 45.9% | 31.8% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Brady Singer (RHP, KC) | 1-3 | 4.18 | 4.30 | 4.15 | 3.54 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 32.3% | 33.3% | ||||||||
Dylan Cease (RHP, CHW) | 2-0 | 2.80 | 3.62 | 3.62 | 3.34 | 31.8% | 11.5% | 35.4% | 39.5% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Huascar Ynoa (RHP, ATL) | 4-1 | 2.23 | 3.08 | 3.21 | 4.32 | 28.4% | 5.8% | 48.5% | 33.0% | ||||||||
Freddy Peralta (RHP, MIL) | 3-1 | 2.77 | 3.32 | 2.91 | 1.96 | 39.4% | 11.6% | 28.8% | 54.2% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Jeff Hoffman* (RHP, CIN) | 2-3 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 4.87 | 5.89 | 20.0% | 11.1% | 44.0% | 33.3% | ||||||||
Antonio Senzatela (RHP, COL) | 1-4 | 5.97 | 4.41 | 4.69 | 5.49 | 13.7% | 6.8% | 47.6% | 23.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Erick Fedde (RHP, WSH) | 2-4 | 5.29 | 4.41 | 4.55 | 4.24 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 34.4% | 36.8% | ||||||||
Luke Weaver (RHP, ARI) | 2-3 | 5.00 | 4.03 | 4.06 | 5.38 | 23.0% | 7.2% | 42.9% | 37.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Shane Bieber (RHP, CLE) | 4-2 | 2.95 | 2.48 | 2.66 | 3.29 | 37.0% | 7.8% | 43.5% | 33.9% | ||||||||
Robert Dugger* (RHP, SEA) | 0-0 | 2.25 | 3.22 | 2.94 | 2.40 | 25.8% | 3.2% | 40.9% | 36.4% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Pablo López (RHP, MIA) | 0-3 | 3.07 | 3.64 | 3.92 | 3.54 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 30.6% | 28.3% | ||||||||
Jimmy Nelson* (RHP, LAD) | 1-1 | 3.00 | 3.78 | 3.32 | 2.08 | 34.9% | 14.3% | 35.5% | 45.2% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Kwang Hyun Kim (LHP, STL) | 1-0 | 2.74 | 3.60 | 3.65 | 4.75 | 24.5% | 5.1% | 36.8% | 35.3% | ||||||||
Ryan Weathers* (LHP, SD) | 2-1 | 0.81 | 3.86 | 3.72 | 3.31 | 25.0% | 8.8% | 42.3% | 36.5% |
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY! Promo code Red10 gets you 10% off ANY Elite Sports Package, including VIP.