MLB Weekly Preview: 4/10 – 4/16

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: The balanced schedule is still giving many even home/road splits. Park Factors will again be vital this week in identifying positive or negative park shifts (see Statcast factors update below). All American League teams other than Toronto, who is home all week, have even home/road splits. TOR was also uneven last week with all away games, most likely due to traveling issues from Canada (i.e., distance, still tighter restrictions/regulations from COVID, etc.). Ironically, all National League teams are even, except for Milwaukee. Like TOR, MIL was uneven last week too. They were home all last week and will be road bound for this scoring period. So, maybe it’s not a Canada thing? All total, we have 12 teams playing seven games this week, while the other 18 play six.

Before we dive in for edges, let’s take a quick peek at the runner and the stolen-base boom we knew would happen! After more than a week since Opening Day, steals are way up compared to last year, and the stolen-base percentage is the highest it’s ever been! In 2022, through the first 87 games league-wide, there were 61 stolen bases on 89 attempts (68.5% success rate). For this year, through 91 games, there have been 124 SB on 154 attempts (80.5% success rate). Breaking it down per game, there were 0.70 SB on 1.02 attempts last year. For this season, there have been 1.36 SB per game on 1.69 attempts! We haven’t seen SB/G at this level since the 1990s. Also, if the 80.5% success rate holds, it will be an all-time record! No more chasing steals in fantasy baseball. ?

A Few Areas to Target

If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

Rancho Cucamonga
Boston (@TBR – 4, LAA – 3) is set to face six of seven left-handed starters unless Tucker Davidson is used in relief before the 4/12 opening in the LAA rotation (which he was on 4/10). If you’ve rostered Angels’ pitchers, you know how they like keeping pitchers on 5-6 days’ rest. With TD unavailable, the Halos will activate Griffin Canning from the injured list. On 4/6, Canning fired 92 pitches in five innings of work for Class-A Inland Empire. According to Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register, Canning said that he feels 100% after allowing one earned run and striking out 10 to two walks. But Boston bats are more fierce than those of the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, no disrespect. It doesn’t matter for a guy with a career 4.73 ERA in the majors.

Adam Duvall has been hot to begin the season, and we should expect good times to continue rolling this week (Update:Fractured wrist – 10-day IL but will miss multiple weeks – Stash if can). Justin Turner’s splits are even for his career as well as in 2022, but I still expect him to ball out this week. Despite a poor start to the season, Kike Hernández (25% owned in Yahoo, 11% in ESPN, 51% in Fantrax Dynasty) could easily rebound this week with his career .259/.347/.475 slash line vs. LHP. In fact, his 121 wRC+ against southpaws eclipses his 81 mark vs. RHP. And in place of such players like Triston Casas, we could see Rob Refsnyder get some run this week with his righty bat. He is available everywhere and had a .307/.384/.497 slash in 177 PA for 2022. His numbers vs. LHP are starkly better. 

Homecoming
We are entering the third season since Nolan Arenado traded his Rockie Purple for Cardinal Red. Yeah, “life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” Even though this is Arenado’s third trip back to the Mile High City, it’s always special and elicits greatness from the 32-year-old third basement. Fuck, I’m old. Anyway, Coors Field is a hitter’s delight, and St. Louis begins their week with a bang (@COL – 3, PIT – 4). In the young season, Coors ranks number one in Statcast’s Overall Park Factor, along with red designations in all major categories other than walks and strikeouts (see below). Busch Stadium is rather low on the board, but the Pirates’ dumpster fire of a starting staff should level the playing field. Furthermore, St. Louie will face six of seven right-handed starters.

If you are not blessed with Arenado’s services, don’t fret. We have some bats to stream. In shallower leagues, Nolan Gorman (57% owned in Yahoo, 27% in ESPN, 87% in Fantrax Dynasty) could have a massive week. He has immense raw power (65 Scouting Grade) that plays well in Colorado. The 22-year-old already has two homers in 25 PA and had 14 last year in 89 games. Brendan Donovan (must start this week) eats his playing time, but with the Cardinals likely to jam another lefty bat in their lineup, Gorman should see regular playing time at the keystone and designated hitter, especially with Donovan’s defensive versatility. Gorman is an all-or-nothing type with a career 32.6% K-rate. However, he did have a tidy 19.2% rate at Triple-A Memphis in 2021, so maybe we are due for some positive regression.

Additionally, in deeper leagues, you can consider Dylan Carlson (5% owned in Yahoo, 7% in ESPN, 62% in Fantrax Dynasty) this week. The 24-year-old switch hitter has been the odd man out this season, but with Lars Nootbaar hitting the injured list (see IL report below), Carlson will have more opportunities in the outfield or even at DH for the short term. The production has declined since his 2021 campaign – 18 HR, .172 ISO in 2021 vs. 8 HR, .144 ISO in 2022 – but with ballpark factors and the speed he still brings to the table, he makes for a good stream if he cracks the lineup.

Great American “Small” Park
The Phillies (MIA – 3, @CIN – 4) lineup is a walking M.A.S.H. unit these days and will battle a fierce Marlins pitching staff to begin the week. However, the Phightin’ Phils are prime to rake in one of the best-hitting parks. Great American Ball Park is currently tied with Coors Field in Statcast’s Overall Park Factor (111) and has number one all to itself in HR Park Factor (145). Kyle Schwarber will eat this week, especially with Philly facing five right-handed starters to two southpaws. 

Also, like Schwarber, Brandon Marsh (9% owned in Yahoo, 2% in ESPN, 51% in Fantrax Dynasty) hits from the left side, and he should find his way into the lineup based on splits and opportunity. He’s started 2023 off hot and has a homer, two doubles, a triple and a stolen base in just 20 PA, going 6-for-20 in that time. Additionally, Marsh had 10 SB in 134 games last season, and that could rise based on the stats above plus his sprint speed, which ranked 89th percentile last season and 77th so far this year! Gotta love the power/speed combo he possesses. 

And speaking of opportunity, Edmundo Sosa (<1% owned in Yahoo, <1% in ESPN, 13% in Fantrax Dynasty) has it. Due to injuries for Rhys Hoskins and his direct replacement in Darick Hall, Philly is sliding Alec Bohm to first base, leaving the hot corner open for Sosa to take the reins. In six games (15 PA), Sosa is slashing .357/.333/.643. Take advantage while Hall is on the shelf. 

Quick Hitters…

• Baltimore (OAK – 4, @CHW – 3) plays a seven-game week with juicy pitching matchups, minus Dylan Cease.
• Yankees (@CLE – 3, MIN – 4) are facing seven right-handed starters. Fire up Anthony Rizzo and take a shot on Oswaldo Cabrera (18% owned in Yahoo, 6% in ESPN, 57% in Fantrax Dynasty).
• Twins (CHW – 3, @NYY – 4) are facing six of seven right-handed starters. If Joey Gallo (27% owned in Yahoo, 13% in ESPN, 80% in Fantrax Dynasty) checks out alright health-wise – battling right side soreness, but MRI was clean – he’s a fine play/stream. The same applies to Nick Gordon (8% owned in Yahoo, 3% in ESPN, 43% in Fantrax Dynasty). Gallo said he’s undergoing treatment to reduce the inflammation with the hope that he can soon progress to swinging and return to the field within “a couple days” without a stint on the injured list.
• The Brew Crew (@ARI – 3, @SDP – 4) is facing six of seven right-handed starters. Gotta like Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker (38% owned in Yahoo, 27% in ESPN, 87% in Fantrax Dynasty) at the top of the lineup, along with Rowdy Tellez, Garrett Mitchell (56% owned in Yahoo, 13% in ESPN, 86% in Fantrax Dynasty) and Brice Turang (28% owned in Yahoo, 17% in ESPN, 71% in Fantrax Dynasty). Warning, Initiate lefty protocol! 
• Tampa Bay (BOS – 4, TOR – 3) is doing historic things and piling up runs while limiting the opposition with a +57 run differential (75-18 as of 4/9, highest run differential in a team’s first nine games since 1900!). Furthermore, they have won their first nine games by at least a four-run margin, which is the longest streak to open a season in the modern era. In fact, you would have to go back to 1884 to find the last time that happened (St. Louis Maroons – 13 games), according to Opta Stats! The Devil Rays will face two lefties to five righties this week, making Luke Raley (3% owned in Yahoo, 2% in ESPN, 22% in Fantrax Dynasty) and Josh Lowe (4% owned in Yahoo, 1% in ESPN, 38% in Fantrax Dynasty) fine streams, especially for daily-lock leagues. Particularly for Lowe, he is bound to see more run in the outfield due to Jose Siri’s absence from a right hamstring strain. Siri hits the 10-day IL after coming up lame while making a catch at the wall vs. the A’s. 
• Cincy plays seven games this week (@ATL – 3, PHI – 4), but the pitching matchups are not favorable. However, a triad of proj. Philly starters don’t exactly make one shake in their boots (Bailey Falter, Taijuan Walker, Matt Strahm). Reds hitters are better for daily-lock leagues. 
• Finally, the Friars play seven games this week (@NYM – 3, MIL – 4). And despite the parks’ lower hitting factors, I expect both to rise based on modifications in the outfield this past offseason. They’ll face a struggling Max Scherzer along with unproven arms in David Peterson and Tylor Megill. Later in the week, they’re proj. to see Eric Lauer (who is also struggling ATM) and Wade Miley along with Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes. So it’s a mixed bag of sorts. Fire up your Padre studs, even those who may be struggling. Yes, I’m looking at you, Juan Soto.

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
Consider streaming Oakland (@BAL – 4, NYM – 3) lefty bats Tony Kemp – 3% owned in Yahoo, 5% in ESPN, 28% in Fantrax Dynasty, Jace Peterson – 1% owned in Yahoo, <1% in ESPN, 12% in Fantrax Dynasty and Seth Brown – 46% owned in Yahoo, 16% in ESPN, 86% in Fantrax Dynasty. They are facing six of seven right-handed starters.

Places to Avoid

The Cubbies (SEA – 3, @LAD – 3) have begun the year hot with the bats, sporting the fifth-highest batting average in MLB along with being middle-of-the-pact in OPS. However, Chicago will face some difficult pitching this week. Seattle boasts the eighth-lowest ERA (3.38), while LAD has an even better 2.14 mark (third-lowest). Bench Trey Mancini and Patrick Wisdom, despite the latter’s hot start. The regression monster is undefeated. Also, limit expectations for Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger (if you still even have any for Belli lol). 

The D-backs (MIL – 3, @MIA – 3) also are in for a bumpy road this week, as they take on a pair of quality staffs. Milwaukee has the fifth-best ERA with a 2.72 mark, and they will be firing Burnes and Brandon Woodruff in their three-game set. As for the Miami series, Trevor Rogers (who looked good against the Mets in Queens this weekend), Braxton Garrett (uber-talented young lefty) and Sandy Alcantara project to take the hill. While I’m still starting Corbin Carroll for the SB factor, I’m shying away from players like Ketel Marte and Christian Walker this week, and you should too.

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 4/8/23 (Rogers Centre does not appear since TOR’s home opener is 4/11); Statcast data via Baseball Savant

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Corbin Burnes¹ (@ARI, @SDP) ⬅️ Burnes loses his second start, with MIL bumping back their starters by a day to maintain five days’ rest for starters (even with Woodruff hitting the IL). As a result, 4/13 looks to be a bullpen game, and Burnes shifts to next week. ?
2. Gerrit Cole² (@CLE, MIN)
3. Sandy Alcantara³ (@PHI, ARI)
4. Max Scherzer⁴ (SDP, @OAK) ⬅️Buck Showalter announced after the Mets game on 4/15 that Jose Butto will start on 4/16 in place of Max, who unfortunately loses second start this week, and he is being pushed to 4/19 due to “lingering soreness.” He said Max is fine and could have pitched tomorrow, but Mets wanted to push all of their starters anyway due to a busy schedule, and this is an opportunity to keep him fresh. If New York goes along with this plan and Max is indeed ok, Kodai Senga would then travel to San Francisco instead of facing the Dodgers.
5. Shane Bieber⁶ (NYY, @WSH)
6. Shane McClanahan⁷ (BOS, @TOR)
7. Julio Urías⁸ (@SFG, CHC)
8. Aaron Nola⁹ (MIA, @CIN)
9. Luis Castillo¹¹ (@CHC, COL)
10. Framber Valdez¹⁵ (@PIT, TEX)
11. Dylan Cease¹⁶ (@MIN, BAL)
12. Alek Manoah¹⁸ (DET, TBR)
13. Yu Darvish¹⁸ (@NYM, MIL) ⬅️ Update: Darvish adds a second start since Joe Musgrove will require more time on the shelf. Apparently (and it would have been nice to hear about this before weekly lineup lock), Musgrove had a cortisone shot in his right shoulder after falling on the area in the midst of a fielding play during his rehab start last week. After some rest, Musgrove will make one more rehab start before activation (time estimation: 7-10 days).
14. Zac Gallen²¹ (MIL, @MIA)
15. Logan Webb²³ (LAD, @DET)
16. Pablo López³⁰ (CHW, @NYY)
17. Kyle Wright⁵³ (CIN, @KCR) ⬅️ Wright picks up a second start this week with ATL opting to send down Dylan Dodd. Initially, I viewed the move as freeing space for a Max Fried return, but he will come back next week (see IL report).

Other Options: Domingo Germán⁶⁹ (@CLE, MIN), Grayson Rodriguez⁷³ (OAK, @CHW) POV SPECIAL HM, Kenta Maeda^DTD (CHW, @NYY), Miles Mikolas⁷⁶ (@COL, PIT), Mitch Keller⁷⁷ (HOU, @STL), Graham Ashcraft⁷⁹ (@ATL, PHI), Roansy Contreras⁸⁴ (HOU, @STL), Nick Pivetta⁸⁶ (@TBR, LAA), Andrew Heaney⁸⁹ (KCR, @HOU), Kyle Gibson¹⁰⁷ (OAK, @CHW), Drew Smyly¹⁰⁸ (SEA, @LAD), Germán Márquez^IL (STL, @SEA), Steven Matz¹²⁸ (@COL, PIT), Matt Manning^IL (@TOR, SFG), Bryce Elder¹⁴⁹ (CIN, @KCR) POV SPECIAL, Wade Miley¹⁵⁰ (@ARI, @SDP) POV SPECIAL HM

Danger Zone: Zack Greinke¹⁵⁵ (@TEX, ATL), Matt Strahm^NR (MIA, @CIN) POV SPECIAL US, JP Sears^NR (@BAL, NYM), Josh Fleming^NR (BOS, @TOR), Luis Cessa^NR (@ATL, PHI), Patrick Corbin^NR (@LAA, CLE)

*Big gap between the haves and the have-nots for our two-steppers. Check out the rankings difference between López and Germán! UPDATE: Michael Lorenzen¹¹³ will come off the IL to replace Manning for the time being.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 10 – 16

Drey Jameson has the coolest spikes ever…

…and the fifth spot in the D-backs rotation thanks to Zach Davies’ left oblique strain. He’ll slide in to face the Brewers at home.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

This just in…

Brandon Woodruff, Brewers – 15-day IL, Shoulder Inflammation (Retro 4/8)

In a surprising announcement, Brewers placed Woodruff on the 15-day IL after he didn’t recover well from this last start. He should only miss the minimum, but who knows when news like this comes from out of left field. Colin Rea will occupy Woodruff’s spot in the rotation in the meantime. UPDATE: MRI results were not good regarding Woodruff’s shoulder inflammation. He remains shut down without a timetable for return.

Oneil Cruz, Pirates – 60-day IL, Left Ankle Fracture

Cruz fractures his ankle on an ugly home-plate collision, and then a fight ensues. Complete mayhem and an unfortunate blow to our fantasy teams because he will surely be out for a long time. Attempting to score from third base on a Ke’Bryan Hayes’ weakly hit grounder to Yoán Moncada, Cruz slid late and awkwardly into White Sox catcher Seby Zavala. As a result, the late slide attempt caused his left leg to bend behind him. He appeared to be in pain instantly, rolling around on the dirt and unable to move his left leg. Rodolfo Castro stands to be the beneficiary here to fill in at shortstop. However, Ji Hwan Bae could see time there as well. The Pirates could also bring Tucupita Marcano or Chris Owings, the latter of which is not on the 40-man roster, into the mix from Triple-A Indianapolis. Messy!

Starling Marte, Mets – DTD, Neck Strain

Marte exited the Mets’ series finale against the Marlins with a neck strain after sliding head-first into third baseman Jean Segura on a stolen base in the bottom of the first inning. His head collided with Segura’s knee, so good news that it’s not a head injury. He is considered day-to-day, per the team.

Update…

Travis d’Arnaud, Braves – 7-day IL, Concussion

The now 34-year-old catcher – FML – sustained the injury in the fourth inning when he collided with San Diego’s Rougned Odor on a play at the plate. As he lunged to his left to tag Odor, d’Arnaud was pushed back as his head connected with what appeared to be Odor’s left thigh or hip. He was sent home after being diagnosed with a concussion at the stadium and was not taken to a hospital for further evaluations. It was reported that the catcher suffered the third concussion of his professional career in 2014 when he was hit by an Alfonso Soriano backswing.

Andrés Muñoz, Mariners – 15-day IL, Right Deltoid Strain (Retro 4/8)

Muñoz last pitched on 4/7, throwing a hitless eighth inning in his fourth outing of the year, and he hadn’t yet pitched on back-to-back days, a by-design effort to limit his workload after a slow ramp-up in Spring Training related to offseason surgery on his right foot and ankle. He wasn’t bouncing back as the team had hoped, so they gonna shut it down for 15 and re-evaluate in a few days. Paul Sewald is next in line, but I sense a committee approach with Diego Castillo and Matt Brash.

Medical Update…

• Jorge Polanco, Twins (left knee inflammation) played five innings in his first rehab appearance as part of a delayed ramp-up into the regular season, going 1-for-3 with a single and two strikeouts.
• Joe Musgrove, Padres (fractured left big toe) threw 4.1 IP and allowed three runs (two earned) with six strikeouts in a rehab start for Triple-A El Paso on 4/6. Musgrove is eligible to rejoin the team as soon as 4/11 when the Padres are slated to face the Mets. But manager Bob Melvin said it’s likely Musgrove makes a second rehab start, so his return is looking like 4/16 vs. MIL. Update: Musgrove will require more time on the shelf. He had a cortisone shot in his right shoulder after falling on the area in the midst of a fielding play during his rehab start last week. After some rest, Musgrove will make one more rehab start before activation (time estimation: 7-10 days).
• Kyle Wright, Braves (shoulder) pitched six innings in his last rehab at Triple-A Gwinnett. His velo was way down, and he allowed five runs. Though, he did post six strikeouts and feels great. He should be activated for 4/11 vs. CIN. Bryce Edler (more on him below) has the fifth job over Jared Shuster, who was sent down to clear room for Wright. Update: Wright will return from the IL to start against the Reds on 4/11, David O’Brien of The Athletic reports.
• Garrett Whitlock, Red Sox is likely to come off the 15-day injured list to make his season debut on 4/11 @TBR. His last rehab start for the Portland Sea Dogs (AAA) on 4/6 went swimmingly, allowing just one run on one hit with eight strikeouts and one walk over six innings. Let’s gooooooooo! Update: Whitlock had a rough return against the red-hot Rays. However, he will earn a second start on 4/16 vs. LAA. Also, the Sox will activate Brayan Bello¹²¹ and have him pitch on Patriots’ Day, 4/17, according to FanGraphs.
• Adam Wainwright, Cardinals completed a 33-pitch throwing session on 4/8 and reported no ill effects, manager Oliver Marmol said. Wainwright has used his time off to try and strengthen a left leg weakened by a round of back spasms in February. He will throw another bullpen session of approximately 30 pitches on 4/11.

Michael Harris II, Braves – 10-day IL, Lower Back Strain (Retro 4/7)

Another blow for the Bravos, but according to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Harris is only expected to miss a minimum of 10 days. 

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

In the first two weeks, my Pov Specials have not been very special. Matter of fact, they’ve been dog shit. In Week 1, Jared Shuster was dog shit, although my honorable mention, Jhony Brito, was pretty darn good. In the second week, Hayden Wesneski left much to be desired despite a workman-like effort. Better days are ahead for him. Honorable mention Roansy Contreras provided good results despite a tougher matchup in Boston, but I should have my head examined for recommending Drew Smyly. When will I ever learn with him?! Maybe it’s because I don’t usually look to stream SPs this early in the season. But sometimes, we have no choice due to injury. And if you have been in that boat, and the streams haven’t panned out, I sincerely apologize. However, I have an opportunity here to make amends, and I’m confident this man will get the job done! 

→ Bryce Elder¹⁴⁹, RH ATL (CIN, @KCR; 6% owned in Yahoo, 3% in ESPN, 50% in Fantrax Dynasty) – With all of the talk surrounding Shuster and Dylan Dodd when discussing Brave staff fill-ins, this 23-year-old is throwing both middle fingers in the air and shouting, “You motherfuckers act like you forgot about Der!” That’s El-der, who is up 20.8% in the last seven days on Fantrax, so hopefully, I’m not too late with this recommendation. His first start at St. Louis was aces, going six innings of two-hit ball with six strikeouts. The Reds are beatable, and Elder’s two-step status can boost your pitching options due to the big gap between the haves and the have-nots for two-start weeks. 

Elder’s upside is immense, and the public has seemingly forgotten about his 2022 success based on the roster levels above. In nine game starts (10 appearances), he had three quality starts, one complete game shutout, a .222 BAA, 1.24 WHIP and 3.17 ERA (3.34 FIP). While his expected numbers paint a slightly different picture (4.44 xFIP, 4.45 SIERA, 4.25 xERA), they’re not terrible and are bound to improve with experience. Go get him, now!

Honorable Mention: Grayson Rodriguez⁷³, RH BAL (OAK, @CHW; 72% owned in Yahoo, 26% in ESPN, 95% in Fantrax Dynasty) & Wade Miley¹⁵⁰, LH MIL (@ARI, @SDP; 3% owned in Yahoo, <1% in ESPN, 29% in Fantrax Dynasty) – There is one reason why Grayson is not our No. 1 Special; he is most likely rostered in your league. If not, swoop before Kyle Bradish^IL returns to (potentially) usurp Grayson! As for Miley, I’m getting some serious Smyly flashbacks, so tread cautiously with him.

Ultra Sneaky: Matt Strahm^NR, LH PHI (MIA, @CIN; <1% owned in Yahoo, <1% in ESPN, 12% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Strahm won’t help your win column, but he shouldn’t hurt your ratios in 4-5 innings of work. He turned in four scoreless against the Yankees, which was “ultra” surprising, considering NY usually bombs LHP. These matchups are tastier despite a hitter’s environment for his second start. And here’s the sneaky part. In leagues where he qualifies as an RP (which should be most), slip him in an RP slot or your last P slot. This is a winning move for point-based leagues. Also, I’d rather start him than that third chair reliever who you’re hoping backs into a save yet gives up four runs in a third of an inning, killing your ERA and WHIP.

One-Start Pitcher: Anthony DeSclafani⁸¹, RH SFG (@DET; 28% owned in Yahoo, 9% in ESPN, 66% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Tony Disco is back in our lives… get on it before he gets hurt again. In two starts this season (12.1 IP), he has amassed 11 strikeouts to zero walks against KCR & CHW. With only six hits and one run allowed in the two starts combined, he appears to be in top form. Plus, it’s a good matchup this week.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!