MLB Weekly Preview: April 12 – 18

In the following MLB weekly preview, we have a game breakdown for all 30 teams, pitching rankings and latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

In memory of John Cannella Sr.

They say the third go-around is usually when one hits their stride. You know, they. Them. The people who know. Now entering my third season of providing the MLB Weekly Preview, I have never felt more confident in my systems of data collection and resulting analysis. All of which are extremely time-consuming, but I could give a rat’s ass when I see our subscribers posting league-winning celebrations. Never was I more proud than what we accomplished together in the pandemic shortened season of 2020. With a tear in my eye…

While I had a disappointing fourth-place finish in my Roto OC, every other league was first or second. The league which ground my gears the most was my championship loss in Fantrax Dynasty, a league I’ve now belonged to for well over 11 years (aka my old ass can’t remember when I joined) and haven’t won. However, I learned something crucial which will benefit me this season: utilization of bulk relievers with elite ratios whose value is non-contingent upon role.

That’s what this game is, a constant learning curve, and I don’t mean Jesús Luzardo’s turkey sub! Am I the greatest fantasy baseball player who has ever walked God’s green earth? No, I am not. But I outwork my opponents, and this work ethic is what got me to where I am today. Some of you reading this may be more successful, and I applaud you for that, although I’ve been crushing fantasy baseball since 1997. So, I got veteran experience going for me, which is nice. But this doesn’t mean we don’t learn from each other to be the very best at what we do. I subscribe to symbiotic relationships. With this in mind, let’s go crush it!!!

In the following weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 MLB teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL information to help you dominate this week’s matchup and through the entirety of your seasonal league. Plus, new this season: Stolen Base Targets!

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25 Best Players Under 25

We all like lists. They’re both fun to create and to debate. They can be useful, too, when examining the depth of a subject. By making a list, takes the theoretical and abstract and makes it tangible. It can be a to-do list for weekly goals and errands, a fantasy baseball draft wish list, a two-start pitcher list like you can find three sections down, or a personal rankings list to help with roster decisions. The latter is the inspiration for this week’s Opening Topic.

If you’re in clean redraft leagues, it’s all about owning the best players possible at each position, regardless of age. Sure, having younger players can be advantageous when it comes to staying healthy, requiring fewer rest days, and having general youthful exuberance. I believe I can remember what that’s like. However, in keeper leagues where you can hold a player for multiple seasons (potentially at a cost) or dynasty leagues, players under 25 carry extra weight. It’s how long-term dominance can be created. The vets certainly have their place, but much like my Bumble profile, I keep that search range at 25. So, it got me thinking. If I were to make the ultimate fantasy team by choosing only from players in their age-24 season or younger as of 2021 – Major League or Minor League – who would I target?

Unfortunately, both Shane Bieber and Cody Bellinger are not eligible under these parameters as they are both 25 years old. That’s fine since I can “settle” on my fantasy baseball dreamboat, Juan Soto. The only players to begin a career like he’s had so far are Hall of Famers and Mike Trout. Soto had an astonishing 201 park-adjusted weighted runs created (wRC+) in 2020. This, after the 142 and 146 marks he’s posted in his sophomore and rookie seasons. He’s off to a decent start after the Nationals season was delayed (4-for-11, .364/.563/.364, 3 R, 1 RBI, 0 HR). When looking at this small sample, I do like seeing five walks and one stolen base in two attempts. Soto did say he wants to steal more bases this season. He projects to be the number one player in baseball for years to come. 

Up next is Ronald Acuña Jr., who many have ahead of Soto. It’s a 1A/1B situation in either direction. Acuña is truly dynamic and electrifying. He’s already entrenched himself as one of the faces of the game at such a young age. His five tools check all the boxes for fantasy. There’s nothing he can’t do, and the sky’s the limit. On the young season, Acuña is 11-for-28 with three long balls, six runs batted in, five runs and two stolen bases. His wOBA is .538, all of which resulting in a .406/.441/.844 slash line. Beast! 

Fernando Tatis Jr. rounds out the top-3 under 25. His season is on pause, unfortunately, due to a slight labrum tear in his left shoulder. The good news is surgery is not required at this time. Only R&R. Returning to play this season offers minimum long-term risk for further injury, so hopefully, we see him soon. It could even be as early as this week! Tatis’ all-around game and position value heighten his appeal, as evidenced by the enormous amount of money San Diego threw at him. Having any one of these top-3 sets up a fantasy team well for years to come, but I’m a greedy fuck.

The next group of youngsters is special in their own way. Rafael Devers’ 110 OPS+ in 2020 was considered “a down year.” This tells you a lot about how big of a breakout his 2019 had been. Over 2019-20, he has the third-most hard-hit balls in baseball. Slowish start to 2021, but the barrel rates predict the numbers to return to 2019 levels (12.5 Barrel % this season – 12.1% 2020 – 73^rd percentile, per Baseball Savant). With Luis Robert, there’s work to be done in terms of plate discipline, as his 32% strikeout rate was one of the highest in the big leagues. Despite his free-swinging ways (YEAH, BABY, YEAH!), I’m still a big believer in all of his offensive tools. Vladimir Jr. is the first prospect ever to receive an 80 hit grade, and so far this season, he is living up to the billing while in fantastic shape.

If I were to miss on Tatis, Wander Franco would do quite nicely for a team building for the future. Franco is as safe a bet to succeed as any prospect in years, and it’s not like he’s a rookie-ball teenager, either; he’s likely to debut in 2021. A 20-year-old switch-hitter who can play shortstop and walked more than he struck out in the minors while showing plus raw power? Sign me up!

I promise not to drone on about all 25 players, so let’s skip around a bit. 

Adley Rutschman is a fine catcher in the Orioles organization. He is a switch-hitter with hitting ability, pop and plate discipline. Rutschman has tremendous all-around tools for a catcher, making him the #3 overall prospect in MLB. Spencer Torkelson is the future at third base for the Tigers. His 70-grade power tool is equivalent to Robert and Jo Adell. I have eyes for the Seattle outfield, but it’s Julio Rodriguez who tickles my fancy. He could hit .280-.300 with 35-40 homers per season, and he might make his big league debut as a 20-year-old this year. Dylan Carlson is next in line for prestigious power from a Red Bird. In fact, 28.9% of his 2020 contact was both hard-hit and in the launch angle sweet spot. Only four players had at least 75 batted balls with a higher rate: Freddie Freeman, Matt Chapman, Will Smith and Corey Seager.

As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team you would like me to cover in this section of the MLB Weekly Preview, drop a line in our VIP Chat Room or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

Whole lotta sevens up on the board this week. Good week to be in Vegas or AC, depending on your coastal location. But, “you’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do ya, Punk?”

A Few Areas to Target

Take some chances with your Seattle and Texas bats.
Both teams line up for seven-game weeks, and both teams face Baltimore this week (SEA – 4, TEX – 3). The Orioles’ staff is a bunch of average to below-average starting pitchers, minus John Means. Mariners play their four in hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Over the past three years, the park factors there are 1.022 for runs and 1.171 for homers, the latter being the fourth-highest mark in MLB.

A trip to the Rocky Mountains…
Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith head to Colorado to wrap up their seven-game week and look to flex their home-run muscles. As a matter of fact, the Mets will see seven righties as you see above. Maybe this trip and week overall can awaken the season-starting slump of Michael Conforto. On the Rockies side, they begin their week in sunny LA and face Trevor Bauer, Dustin May and Walker Buehler. I wouldn’t try to jam their bats into your lineups. They will also see Marcus Stroman, David Peterson and Taijuan Walker at home.

Houston’s offense is en fuego!
Astros are lethal against lefties, and they’re scheduled to face four this week. The pitching matchups are soft AF (DET – 3, SEA – 3). Even with the six games in comparison to others on your roster with seven, I would leave the majority in your lineup.

When dafuq did they change the name of Miller Park?
Milwaukee will enjoy home cooking all week for their six-game set. American Family Field (vomit) boosts home runs with a park factor of 1.080. They’re slated to face only right-handed starters, and Kyle Hendricks is the toughest of the bunch. A red-hot Christian Yelich will be looking to eat. The schedule makes Travis Shaw a nice option for deeper leagues, and Omar Narváez is viable in single-catcher leagues (7 GP, 10 for 22, .455/.520/.727, 1.247 OPS, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0.75 BB/K).

WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. We see this occur when the Indians and Reds battle for the Ohio Cup. Reyes is scorching hot, so possibly Terry Francona could opt to start him in right for Josh Naylor. After all, in ‘19, Reyes did play 86 games in right field (he also played one game in left for the 2020 season). Some maneuverability there, but expect fewer ABs. With seven games this week, it could balance out if Reyes should sit for a game, which is what I expect. Moreland is in the same shoes – cleats, whatever – but the two games could come at an opportune time. He has experienced some hamstring tightness, which resulted in him missing 4/9. The extra rest is just what the doctor ordered.

*Rivalry Series: Battle of Ohio

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE

1. Gerrit Cole (@TOR, TB)
2. Shane Bieber (@CHW, @CIN)
3. Aaron Nola (@NYM, STL)
4. Lucas Giolito (CLE, @BOS)
5. Yu Darvish (@PIT, LAD)
6. Trevor Bauer (COL, @SD)
7. Tyler Glasnow (TEX, TB)
8. Blake Snell (@PIT, LAD)
9. Zack Greinke (DET, @SEA)
10. Stephen Strasburg (@STL, ARI)
11. Kenta Maeda (BOS, @LAA)
12. Hyun Jin Ryu (NYY, @KC)
13. Max Fried (MIA, @CHC)
14. Pablo López (@ATL, SF)
15. Sandy Alcantara (@ATL, SF)
16. Dallas Keuchel (CLE, @BOS)
17. John Means (SEA, @TEX)
18. Ryan Yarbrough (TEX, @NYY)
19. Chris Bassitt (@ARI, DET)
20. Matthew Boyd (@HOU, @OAK)
21. Freddy Peralta (CHC, PIT)
22. Dane Dunning (@TB, BAL)

*UPDATE: Because of Cease’s reinsertion into the rotation on 4/17 and doubleheader for PPD game on 4/18, White Sox opted to move Giolito to Monday morning, as per Pale Hose beat writer, Scott Merkin.

Normally keep this list at 15, but as you can see, there’s tons of fantasy goodness this week. It’s also a nice week for AL-only leagues as 13 of my top 22 two-start pitchers reside in the Junior Circuit. Numbers 1-13 are no-brainers, but the rest of these hurlers are set up for strong weeks, as well. I’m most eager for the pair of Marlins hurlers. For each, you don’t love the Atlanta matchup, but San Francisco balances it out. Keuchel has given up seven earned runs, but the 44.1 LOB% and .310 BABIP says he’s been unlucky. The aforementioned Means looks fantastic this season. As evident, he has a 0.77 ERA and 2.20 FIP. If the roof is closed at Globe Life Field, this two-step will pay dividends. I’m also particularly fond of the matchups for Peralta and Bassitt.

Nervous owners may have been hasty with dropping Yarbs in your league. If so, swoop him up and start that ass! Better for daily leagues with the second start in Yankee Stadium, although he’s pitched fairly well against the pinstripes and in their yard, too (Yankees Stadium career OBA: .249, .214 overall). Boyd can always give you pause, and if you can skip the first start @HOU, it would be better for your health. I may be a Dane Dunning Superfan, especially considering the plan is still to start in tandem with Wes Benjamin. Yet, his efficiency and pure awesomeness in start number one said, “Rules? You know what you can do with your fucking rules?!” Fire him up as a fine volume play!

For a detailed breakdown of more two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 12 – 18

*UPDATE: Angels did some rotation shuffling as I suspected due to Ohtani’s skipped start. Andrew Heaney will now throw on 4/16 vs. MIN. Dylan Bundy will still face the Royals in KC (4/13), and Ohtani is penciled in for the Sat 4/17 start vs. MIN (although I still suspect his start to come Sun (4/18).

Pitcher Spotlight: Joe Musgrove

In this space, we usually break down a pitcher’s mechanics to identify a reason for fantasy failure. Or better yet, we’ll highlight their success and determine if they shall continue. However, today, let’s use it for kudos and congratulatory celebrations. Musgrove fired the first San Diego Padres’ no-hitter in franchise history.

Fun Fact: Now, every active franchise has at least one no-hitter with San Diego getting its first. The last time that was true was right before expansion began in 1961. Washington Senators came into existence the day before the last time everybody had thrown a no-hitter, April 9, 1961. Musgrove’s no-hitter… sixty years to the day!

What makes this story even more special is the feat was accomplished by a hometown kid. Musgrove kept the Rangers off the hit sheet in the nine masterful innings, piling up 10 K. The slider was extremely effective, compiling a 50% Whiff percentage and 35.7% Put Away percentage. Not to be outdone, his curve was also at 35.7% PA% and had excellent movement. “Part of it doesn’t seem like it’s real,” Musgrove said. “It feels like it was meant to be.”

Did Musgrove move up the rankings thanks to the no-no? Despite a juicy matchup in Pittsburgh and the obvious narrative that comes with it (Musgrove was a member of the Pirates from 2018-2020), no, he has not for this week. Why? I am more of a believer in the next game flop after a no-hitter narrative. What a Debbie Downer!

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Ketel Marte (hamstring) was placed on the 10-day IL 4/8 due to a right hamstring strain. He pulled up while running to first base in the loss to Colorado on 4/7 and immediately went down in pain, pounding the ground with his fists. With MRI results still pending, Tim Locastro should serve as the primary center fielder while Marte is sidelined.

After being held out of the lineup for a third straight game on 4/10, manager Dave Roberts said Mookie Betts (back) won’t play in the series finale against the Nationals, either. Particularly troubling since he was originally expected back on 4/9. However, the team does expect him back in the lineup on 4/13 after the off day. It makes sense to give your high-priced star the max rest with the time off. In the meantime, Edwin Ríos sees more at-bats. Teammate Cody Bellinger (left calf contusion) was not so fortunate, landing on the 10-day IL 4/9. The injury occurred back on 4/5 from an errant cleat at first base. 

Tim Anderson (left hamstring strain) hits the 10-day IL but already describes his health as “about 85 percent.” As long as team doctors agree with his assessment, Anderson may only require the minimum stay on the shelf. White Sox are gonna need to see him run the bases and play the field with no visible limitations before activating him. Expect Leury Garcia and Danny Mendick to fill in at shortstop. *UPDATE: Anderson is expected to return to the lineup when first eligible 4/15 against Cleveland.

Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez was placed on the Covid-19 list 4/9. He was reportedly a close contact with an individual who tested positive. He will remain out of the lineup until at least 4/15, relegating him to your fantasy benches. It’s not clear whether Hernandez himself has tested positive. Fire up Randal Grichuk in DFS!

James Paxton (left forearm strain) has been recommended for Tommy John surgery. Paxton felt the strain on 4/6 and had an MRI the next day. Doctors had multiple opinions of the results, but in the end, TJS seems the likely solution. This all leads Paxton to a career crossroads. He is 32 years old and set to become a free agent after 2021. Should the left-hander opt for the surgery, the earliest for a return would be June/July of 2022. However, if Justin Verlander can do it at 38 years of age, why not Paxton? Seattle will maintain their six-man rotation with Nick Margevicius. Target Acquired!

Sonny Gray (back) threw a successful simulated game on 4/10. Although not confirmed as of this writing, I believe the Reds will activate the 31-year-old star pitcher to face Cleveland on 4/16. Also potentially returning to action this week is Zac Gallen* (forearm), who could start 4/13 vs. Oakland. On 4/7, Gallen threw 67 pitches in an intrasquad game, his highest total since the hairline fracture late in camp. If Arizona opts to call his number, I envision a 75-85 pitch count. *UPDATE: Gallen confirmed for activation to make the above-mentioned start.

J.D. Davis (left-hand contusion) tried to tough out a nasty HBP through some rest, but when the 27-year-old third baseman tried to take swings on 4/9, the discomfort was just as it was the day he was hit. As a result, the Mets placed him on the 10-day IL 4/10. Both initial and follow-up (post swelling) X-rays were negative, so his stay should be short-lived. Expect Jonathan Villar to get the at-bats at third in the meantime, although defensively sound Luis Guillorme will see some time, too. 

Yet another player bites the dust this week, as Kolten Wong (left oblique strain) was placed on the 10-day IL. He first incurred the injury during an at-bat against former teammate Adam Wainwright yet stayed in the game and took one more at-bat, where you easily see he could barely swing.

Chris Archer (forearm) sees the injured list only two games played into the young season. He left his start against the Yankees (4/10) with forearm tightness. While that’s never a promising diagnosis, Archer told reporters afterward the Rays don’t believe the injury to be serious, and he may miss only one start. He didn’t pitch last season following neurogenic thoracic outlet surgery. The forgotten Brent Honeywell was recalled to take Archer’s place on the roster.

Julio Teheran (right shoulder strain) was a late scratch on 4/9 due to the ailment which surfaced during pregame warmups. The severity of the injury is not known as of this writing, but the 30-year-old pitcher (wow!) does require a 10-day stay on the IL. *UPDATE: Apparently, the severity of the shoulder injury is pretty… severe. Teheran was transferred to the 60-day IL and will now be out until at least the first week of June.

POV SPECIAL – TOP SP STREAM OF THE WEEK

→ Huascar Ynoa, RHP ATL (MIA, @CHC – 8% owned) – This stream is risky, but the matchups and win potential are heavily in Ynoa’s favor. Although the Marlins can contribute some timely clutch hits, I wouldn’t describe this offense as prolific. They rank 26^th in wOBA overall and just 18^th in xwOBA versus righties specifically this year. As far as the Cubbies, the team had a batting average of .124 as of 4/8. It marked the second-worst team batting average through six games of a season since 1900. Only the 2013 Pirates (.119) had a worse average (Stat via @ESPNStatsInfo). If that wasn’t enough, the total batting average of all 2021 pitchers in the league is .144. Chew on that.

Mike Soroka still needs more time before his return, creating this opportunity for Ynoa. Soroka was already working his way back from the awful Achilles injury of 2020, but now a right shoulder issue has surfaced, shutting him down for two weeks. All of which means an extra reliance upon young Ynoa.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Sanchez, RHP SF (CIN, @MIA – 19% owned) – Don’t get me wrong, big man. I’m not getting that warm and fuzzy feeling in the trousers as I used to for Sanchez. After all, it’s only been one start. However, he more than handled San Diego, giving up one run on six hits in five innings. Call me curious as I will be sitting this one out this week yet watching intently. Doesn’t mean you have to, but that’s my plan. If he has a good first start, I’ll look to add him mid-week before the Miami start to beat the Sunday rush.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, April 18, 2021
(Record, ERA, xFIP/SIERA/xERA)

Madison Bumgarner (LHP, ARI: 0-2, 11.20, 5.51/4.86/7.12) @ Stephen Strasburg (RHP, WSH: 0-1, 6.30, 5.46/5.19/6.90)

Andrew Kittredge* (RHP, TB: 2-0, 1.69, 4.86/4.48/3.20) @ Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY: 2-0, 1.47, 2.35/1.99/1.41)
*Opener – Ryan Yarbrough (LHP, TB: 0-2, 6.48, 4.02/4.46/4.56) will serve as the primary pitcher and pitch the bulk of the innings Sunday.

John Gant (RHP, STL: 0-1, 3.00, 4.85/5.33/6.86) @ Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI: 0-1, 3.45, 3.46/3.40/4.38)

Shane Bieber (RHP, CLE: 1-1, 2.11, 2.34/2.47/2.66) @ Wade Miley (LHP, CIN: 2-0, 0.00, 2.84/2.99/2.60)

Dallas Keuchel (LHP, CHW: 0-0, 6.43, 4.68/4.98/5.90) @ Tanner Houck (RHP, BOS: 0-1, 3.00, 1.46/2.01/2.08) / TBD (CHW: 0-0, -.–, -.–/-.–/-.–) @ Martín Pérez (LHP, BOS: 0-0, 4.50, 6.71/5.41/2.89)

Alex Wood (LHP, SF: 0-0, -.–, -.–/-.–/-.–) @ Pablo López (RHP, MIA: 0-1, 4.60, 3.49/3.79/5.29)

Chad Kuhl (RHP, PIT: 0-1, 6.75, 7.88/8.41/7.66) @ Freddy Peralta (RHP, MIL: 2-0, 0.69, 2.86/3.06/1.93)

Robbie Ray (LHP, TOR: 0-1, 3.60, 5.12/5.89/5.75) @ Brady Singer (RHP, KC: 0-2, 6.48, 2.98/3.27/5.40)

John Means (LHP, BAL: 1-0, 2.16, 4.67/4.32/3.59) @ Kyle Gibson (RHP, TEX: 2-0, 4.05, 4.60/4.57/2.66)

Marcus Stroman (RHP, NYM: 2-0, 0.73, 3.88/3.78/4.23) @ Antonio Senzatela (RHP, COL: 1-2, 7.07, 4.91/5.25/5.79)

Matthew Boyd (LHP, DET: 2-1, 1.86, 4.59/4.59/3.07) @ Chris Bassitt (RHP, OAK: 1-2, 4.96, 5.32/5.38/5.09)

Trevor Bauer (RHP, LAD: 2-0, 2.70, 2.93/2.44/1.85) @ Blake Snell (LHP, SD: 0-0, 4.35, 3.80/4.05/5.00)

Jake Odorizzi (RHP, HOU: 0-1, 13.50, 4.37/4.03/3.74) @ Nick Margevicius (LHP, SEA: 0-1, 7.04, 4.48/3.82/4.93)

Bryse Wilson (RHP, ATL: 0-0, -.–, -.–/-.–/-.–) @ Kyle Hendricks (RHP, CHC: 0-1, 3.00, 3.60/4.06/3.09)

STOLEN BASE TARGETS

If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!

So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY! Promo code Red10 gets you 10% off ANY Elite Sports Package, including VIP.