In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: The calm before the storm is the best way to describe this upcoming week. With most teams playing a tame six-week schedule, only the Yankees, Rays, Twins, Rangers, Astros, Giants and Padres play seven. Furthermore, Milwaukee is the lone team with a five-game week, which is music to most teams’ ears.
Cleveland is scheduled for six games this week, and while José Ramírez and Franmil Reyes managers may think they’re good, not so fast. They play the Twins in a doubleheader on 9/14 in what otherwise would have been just a two-game set. Cleveland is on the road, which means they’ll get a full seven-innings of at-bats. Chances are you’re still starting them at this stage of the game, but if another viable option with more plate appearance opportunity is available, I would go that route. Minnesota hitters play one more game, which gives the ability to stomach the twin bill.
A Few Areas to Target
Start Your San Francisco Baseball Giants… Especially LHH!
SanFran has been rock solid at home. They sport a .183 ISO this season at Oracle Park (ninth). Their .334 home wOBA ranks seventh, while their 114 wRC+ home mark ranks fifth. The newfound, season-long power numbers are elevated based on both approach as well as park dimension alterations. Why am I harping on this, you ask? Well, the West Coast G-men play all seven of their games this week at home (SD – 4, ATL – 3). Why focus on the left side of the platoon splits? They are scheduled to face six right-handed pitchers.
Land of the Free, Home of the Braves
Despite starting a late-season west coast trip (10 games) in the second half of this week and having their time at home divided, Braves hitters are in a good spot. Front and center is Freddie Freeman. Twenty-two of his 29 HRs this season have come against right-handed pitching. Fortunately, the Braves are scheduled to face five righties and what looks like a bullpen game led by an RHP. A .940 OPS (vs. R) eclipses his .785 mark against the same handedness. The schedule will also benefit Ozzie Albies’ power numbers, and it will keep Joc Pederson’s bat in the lineup.
Continue to Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
Washington Nationals are home for six games this week (Current Park Factors: 1.101 Runs, 1.267 Home Runs, 1.097 Hits). The club is tied for seventh (SF) with a .334 wOBA at home. Even though the lineup is decimated, they still have the 11th best home wRC+ since the Trade Deadline. Lane Thomas, Alcides Escobar, Carter Kieboom, Luis García and Yadiel Hernández make for hot streamers this week.
Other Bad Offenses to Look At: Rangers, Orioles
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. Luckily, at this crucial juncture with three weeks left, our DHs are safe!
When the Brew Crew travels to Detroit, we should see a repeat performance of the series in Cleveland with Vogelbach DH’ing. Despite Rowdy Tellez’ experience at designated hitter, they like him at first, and he tends to hit better while spending time in the field between trips to the dish. Tellez’ career numbers while playing first are a .261 BA, .475 SLG, .797 OPS, .214 ISO, .293 BABIP, .335 wOBA and 110 wRC+. While DHing, the numbers go down across the board: .218 BA, .400 SLG, .669 OPS, .182 ISO, .251 BABIP, .282 wOBA and 74 wRC+.
One monkey wrench to Vogelbach’s ABs is if Adames (left quad strain) is activated off the injured list. He is already engaging in leg workouts after falling to injury on 9/4 and could be in line for a minimum absence, even if not 100%. Adames hit DH twice before against Minnesota for the Brewers, and this would be a good way to get his bat back in the lineup while not pushing his leg in the field. Ultimately, with a 12 game lead (as of 9/10), why would they rush him back? *UPDATE: They may need Adames since Tellez hits the 10-day IL on 9/12. It’s being reported he will spend a minimum of two weeks on the shelf, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Tellez is more than likely done for the regular season.
I have a new favorite name in MLB, for obvious reasons… Seth Beer. I apologize for the shade, Kyle Funkhouser, and while I appreciate the retweets, c’mon! It’s Seth FREAKIN Beer!!! The 2018 first-round pick of the Astros has a .909 OPS with 16 home runs and 33 doubles over 100 games this season for Triple-A Reno Aces. Walker is an option for DH, but he is hitting .125 in 16 at-bats this month. With the D’backs scheduled to face three righties (Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr., Jake Odorizzi), I see the team starting fellow LHH Pavin Smith at first base and giving this beer a taste.
Rivalry Series: None
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
EXPECT FEWER OPTIONS ROS AS MORE TEAMS GO SIX-MAN
- Gerrit Cole6 (@BAL, CLE)
- Sandy Alcantara11 (@WSH, PIT)
- Adam Wainwright13 (@NYM, SD)
- Frankie Montas19 (@KC, @LAA)
- Lucas Giolito22 (LAA, @TEX) ← White Sox are giving Carlos Rodón extra rest between starts (10 days this go around), which warrants Giolito to take the bump for a second time this week, to the delight of his owners. Rodón owners are not so thrilled as the 28-year-old is being kept fresh for the postseason after already throwing 124.2 innings (42.1 IP over previous two years). He is only expected to make two more starts in the fantasy season. Rodón will next pitch 9/20 @DET.
- Anthony DeSclafani29 (SD, ATL)
- Yu Darvish32 (@SF, @STL)
- Wade Miley33 (@PIT, LAD)
- Kyle Gibson37 (CHC, @NYM)
- Zack Greinke43 (@TEX, ARI) ← Gets second start with Jake Odorizzi on the IL and Framber Valdez pushed to 9/20 due to cut finger
- Alek Manoah50 (TB,
MIN) ← Toronto pushes him to 9/21. - Eduardo Rodriguez51 (@SEA,
BAL) ← ERod is likely to have second start pushed to 9/21 with Chris Sale returning from CVD-19 IL on 9/17 and to get another start from Nathan Eovaldi23 (@SEA, BAL) for the stretch run. Gotta love shifting parts! - Clayton Kershaw60 (ARI, @CIN)
Other Options: Drew Rasmussen64 (@TOR, DET), Zac Gallen66 (@LAD, @HOU), John Means68 (NYY, @BOS)*, Ryan Yarbrough71 (@TOR, DET), Rich Hill76 (STL, PHI), Jon Gray78 (@ATL, @WSH)*, Logan Gilbert90 (BOS, @KC), Luis Gil114 (MIN, CLE)
*Means loses potential second start with BAL opting to keep Alexander Wells in the rotation; Wells gets the two-start week. Gray KEEPS second start DESPITE 9/16 PPD; Ryan Feltner optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque 9/18. Rasmussen loses second start with Shane McClanahan returning from IL when first eligible (9/19).
Danger Zone: Wily Peralta145 (MIL, @TB), Jackson Kowar149 (OAK, SEA), Dillon PetersNR (CIN, @MIA), Adrian SampsonNR (@PHI, @MIL), Packy NaughtonNR (@CHW, OAK)*, John GantNR (@NYY, @TOR)IL, Jake ArrietaNR (@SF, @STL), Paolo EspinoNR (MIA, COL), Spencer HowardNR & Jordan LylesNR (HOU, CHW)
*Alex Cobb’s potential return from IL would wipe second start. Others have been added for the week with rotation changes.
For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Ray’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR SEPTEMBER 13 – 19
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Let’s begin with a pair of Rays. Wander Franco (right hamstring tightness) left Tampa Bay’s game on 9/10, resulting in an immediate trip to the 10-day injured list. Luckily, his first-inning hit kept his on-base streak going at 39 games, which is four games shy of Hall of Famer Frank Robinson — who holds the record for the longest streak by a player age 20 or younger in American League or National League history. Rays manager Kevin Cash said the recovery timetable is between two and three weeks, but he hoped Franco’s “youth and athleticism” would work to his advantage and spell a return before the end of the regular season. We hope so, too!
Shane McClanahan (lower back tightness) also hits the 10-day IL. The back reportedly began to get cranky during his start in Beantown this past week, but the 24-year-old pitched through it. With the Rays’ playoff push looming large, the club decided to rest him on the IL to fully recharge (aka innings management, which doesn’t help us this time of year). McC believes he will miss just one start and spend the minimum on the shelf, Neil Solondz of the Rays Radio Network reports. McClanahan can return as early as 9/19, but 9/20 (next period) seems more likely based on rotation flow and matchup.
Matthew Boyd (elbow sprain) will see orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister, who just performed Tommy John surgery on Tigers catcher Jake Rogers, for an evaluation after returning to the IL. It was already presumed Boyd would be out for the rest of the season, but if he needs to follow Rogers under the knife, he would probably miss all of 2022, as well.
Jake Cronenworth (fractured left ring finger) – Jake from Rake Farm suffered the ailment when he was hit by a pitch from the Dodgers’ Julio Urías. The Padres are hopeful he will avoid a trip to the injured list, but they expect him to miss at least a few days while the swelling and inflammation subside.
Zack Greinke (health and safety protocols) threw a bullpen session on 9/10 without incident. Manager Dusty Baker said Greinke could return during the series against the Rangers, and I expect that game to be on 9/14.
Remarkable news for Chris Bassitt. He threw 30 pitches in a BP session on 9/11 and could make multiple starts before the end of the season. It was almost a foregone conclusion Bassitt threw his last 2021 pitch, to all but Bassitt himself. He’s kept working and healed rapidly enough. He will travel with the team on this week’s road trip and throw another BP session in Kansas City. If all checks out well, he could be back on the mound for the series in Anaheim 9/17-19.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Jake Odorizzi108, RH HOU (@TEX, ARI; 50-70% owned) – By now, we all know the story of the Odorific One. He gets touched up when an offense sees him the third time through the order. Astros are following the blueprint of the Twins by pulling him after 5+ innings, which they have done six starts in a row and eight times in the last 11 trips to the hill. In his latest outing vs. Seattle, he was rolling on 66 pitches when he got the hook. And after the game, he shared some colorful words, which he then clarified and apologized for the following day. Even with the minor retraction, it’s obvious he’s frustrated and pissed off. Luckily, Jake has thrown some of his best games while heated.
In the aforementioned six-start period, he’s compiled a 2.90 ERA and 2-1 record. They say, “don’t drive angry.” But for some, anger can be fuel when you’re alone on the mound and pitching against the world. You’d certainly like more innings, but his metrics show it’s a sound strategy. So, assuming we get a little more than 10 innings, I like his chances for taking two wins against Texas and Arizona. If owners have shed him for lack of quality starts or just building for the future, swoop him up and roll the dice if you are in need. *UPDATE: Odorizzi hits 10-day Il after flukey foot injury in first start, only recording four outs. He is optimistic he’ll only sit out the minimum with a mid-foot sprain (rather than the feared Linsfranc injury, common to football players). He could return 9/24 to make 1-2 more starts.
Honorable Mention: Touki Toussaint89, RH ATL (COL, @SF; 50-55% owned) – Toussaint was wild last time out, walking four National batters and throwing just 29 strikes in his 62 pitches (3 IP). However, this is atypical of his season, and I attribute it to the Braves jockeying him between pen and rotation. Touki should be more stretched out now, and I love attacking the Rockies while on the road. The Giants start is scary, as referenced in Areas to Target. He’s best left for points leagues or 15-teamers and ideal for daily leagues. *UPDATE: The PPD on 9/16 pushes everybody back a day, at the cost of Toussaint’s second start since a fifth starter will now not be needed… I hate life.
Solo Start: Joe Ryan139, RH MIN (CLE; 15-20% owned)* – With the 20-year remembrance of 9/11, I had to go with a patriotic pick. Ryan helped propel Team USA in the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games. He’s not owned as much as he should be – a byproduct of Fantasy Football starting – and Ryan takes on a Cleveland ballclub who he nearly threw a perfect game against in his second career start. Oh, by the way, Cleveland was just no-hit for a record third time!
*UPDATE: Despite negative X-rays of his arm after taking a comebacker, Ryan’s wrist contusion will keep him from making a potential second start, and it is not clear if an IL trip will be required.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, September 19, 2021
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Jon Gray (RHP, COL) | 8-10 | 4.16 | 4.09 | 4.27 | 3.75 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 37.5% | 32.8% | ||||||||
Paolo Espino (RHP, WSH) | 4-5 | 4.18 | 4.44 | 4.27 | 4.99 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 43.3% | 43.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Eli Morgan (RHP, CLE) | 2-7 | 6.03 | 5.06 | 4.53 | 5.16 | 22.4% | 6.7% | 39.4% | 52.8% | ||||||||
Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY) | 15-7 | 2.75 | 2.86 | 2.84 | 2.89 | 34.6% | 5.7% | 37.6% | 41.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Luke Farrell (RHP, MIN) | 1-0 | 1.31 | 4.01 | 3.84 | 4.11 | 25.9% | 9.9% | 38.5% | 38.5% | ||||||||
José Berríos (RHP, TOR) | 11-8 | 3.43 | 3.69 | 3.74 | 4.23 | 25.6% | 5.9% | 38.1% | 34.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Alexander Wells (LHP, BAL) | 1-3 | 7.76 | 6.11 | 5.59 | 8.27 | 15.0% | 9.0% | 53.5% | 43.4% | ||||||||
Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, BOS) | 10-8 | 3.52 | 3.49 | 3.58 | 3.39 | 25.7% | 4.4% | 35.4% | 35.2% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Clayton Kershaw (LHP, LAD) | 9-7 | 3.33 | 2.91 | 3.10 | 3.24 | 30.0% | 4.5% | 37.5% | 34.2% | ||||||||
Wade Miley (LHP, CIN) | 12-5 | 3.09 | 4.05 | 4.50 | 4.11 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 33.8% | 26.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Wily Peralta (RHP, DET) | 3-3 | 3.32 | 4.78 | 5.08 | 4.66 | 15.3% | 9.1% | 38.3% | 30.3% | ||||||||
Shane McClanahan (LHP, TB) | 9-5 | 3.59 | 3.24 | 3.63 | 4.79 | 27.5% | 7.3% | 45.5% | 29.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Max Kranick (RHP, PIT) | 1-3 | 7.66 | 5.94 | 5.31 | 4.72 | 16.0% | 8.4% | 35.6% | 43.7% | ||||||||
Sandy Alcantara (RHP, MIA) | 9-13 | 3.10 | 6.05 | 6.21 | 10.69 | 12.7% | 14.1% | 47.9% | 27.7% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Zac Gallen (RHP, ARI) | 2-10 | 4.44 | 4.08 | 4.14 | 3.81 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 41.5% | 36.9% | ||||||||
Zack Greinke (RHP, HOU) | 11-6 | 3.94 | 4.28 | 4.59 | 4.35 | 17.0% | 5.2% | 34.3% | 32.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Logan Gilbert (RHP, SEA) | 5-5 | 4.97 | 4.02 | 3.68 | 4.00 | 26.6% | 5.1% | 44.3% | 46.0% | ||||||||
Jackson Kowar (RHP, KC) | 0-3 | 11.50 | 6.39 | 6.11 | 7.30 | 17.4% | 16.3% | 52.5% | 37.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Adrian Sampson (RHP, CHC) | 1-2 | 2.53 | 4.43 | 4.26 | 5.77 | 18.0% | 5.6% | 48.4% | 28.6% | ||||||||
Eric Lauer (LHP, MIL) | 6-5 | 3.10 | 4.22 | 4.24 | 4.06 | 23.5% | 8.1% | 35.9% | 39.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Jake Arrieta (RHP, SD) | 5-13 | 7.05 | 4.80 | 4.96 | 6.19 | 17.9% | 9.3% | 44.4% | 30.9% | ||||||||
J.A. Happ (LHP, STL) | 9-8 | 6.00 | 5.27 | 4.99 | 5.73 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 42.0% | 45.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Lucas Giolito (RHP, CHW) | 9-9 | 3.77 | 3.71 | 3.66 | 3.29 | 28.7% | 7.5% | 35.1% | 42.5% | ||||||||
Jordan Lyles (RHP, TEX) | 9-11 | 5.20 | 4.81 | 4.75 | 5.47 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 42.6% | 40.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Max Fried (LHP, ATL) | 11-7 | 3.47 | 3.53 | 3.83 | 3.81 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 34.8% | 28.7% | ||||||||
Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, SF) | 12-6 | 3.24 | 4.00 | 4.13 | 3.75 | 22.7% | 6.6% | 38.0% | 36.8% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Frankie Montas (RHP, OAK) | 12-9 | 3.72 | 3.66 | 3.78 | 4.09 | 26.5% | 7.0% | 43.5% | 35.8% | ||||||||
Shohei Ohtani (RHP, LAA) | 9-2 | 3.36 | 3.62 | 3.72 | 3.39 | 28.8% | 8.7% | 40.6% | 35.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Kyle Gibson (RHP, PHI) | 10-7 | 3.49 | 4.26 | 4.55 | 3.86 | 19.4% | 8.7% | 38.6% | 29.0% | ||||||||
Rich Hill (LHP, NYM) | 6-7 | 3.88 | 4.67 | 4.44 | 4.44 | 22.0% | 7.9% | 35.1% | 41.9% |
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY!