In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: If you are still reading my lunacy in written form, you’re almost to the finish line – 148 down, 14 to go. As Fantasy Football starts domineering the industry, let us not get distracted from the prize we’ve worked so hard to achieve. We have a busy week, thankfully, as 18 teams play seven or more games. We also see quite a few doubleheaders, making up those lost games close to season’s conclusion. One such occurrence affects the Cardinals, who play eight games this week (@MIL – 4, @CHC – 4) with a doubleheader vs. the Cubbies on 9/24 (makeup of PPD from 7/11). Chicago hitters play only six with the twin bill. Sorry, Frank Schwindel truthers. Also, the Red Sox and Mets play only five games this week thanks to their two-game interleague series.
Kansas City opens their week with a doubleheader at Cleveland, so their seven-game week is slightly fugazi. In addition, it is here where we experience a little “throwback” to a tumultuous (schedule-wise) 2020. The soon-to-be Guardians will engage in a nine-game week! They play another doubleheader against the White Sox, part of a five-game series that follows the four-gamer with the aforementioned Royals. We’ll discuss Cleveland more below.
A Few Areas to Target
Southsider 4 Life
Speaking of the Pale Hose, they have themselves an eight-game week as a result of the doubleheader with Cleveland (@DET – 3, @CLE – 5). Furthermore, all eight are on the road but are at some tasty sites. According to Elite Data, Comerica Park has the third-highest run park factor at 1.107 while sporting the 10th highest mark in home runs with 1.086. Progressive Field is only slightly behind in the HR department (1.048, 13th highest) yet does hold down the overall score with a 0.972 run factor (11th lowest). It may be time for that last factor to rise as the ChiSox hitters gallop into town, tuning up for the playoffs. Enjoy the ride!
GOOD Things Happen in Philadelphia
The Fightin’ Phils are scraping and crawling to take out the first-place Atlanta Braves, and both will play a full complement of seven games as they race to the finish. The major difference (and advantage for Philadelphia) is, while Atlanta embarks on a West Coast trip to Arizona and San Diego, the Phillies will be cozy at home all week against two cellar-dwellers, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Furthermore, Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, and J.T. Realmuto join old faces Odúbel Herrera, Freddy Galvis (who has seemed to overtaken Ronald Torreyes as starting third baseman) and Brad Miller in feasting upon this group of losers:
- John Means: Ok, loser is harsh for Means and not accurate, but it has been an up-and-down year – 3.41 ERA/4.50 xFIP/4.20 SIERA/4.11 xERA, 22.5 K%, 4.8 BB%, 32.0 GB%, 48.8 FB%
- Chris Ellis: 2.39/5.71/5.48/5.44, 18.9 K%, 11.7 BB%, 24.3 GB%, 48.6 FB% BP Game; Conner Greene Opener
- Keegan Akin: 6.93/5.36/5.03/5.44, 18.7 K%, 9.6 BB%, 35.2 GB%, 44.3 FB%
- Wil Crowe: 5.77/4.94/4.86/5.40, 20.9 K%, 10.6 BB%, 42.9 GB% (not bad), 38.2 FB% (also not bad) BP Game; Conner Overton Opener
- Bryse Wilson: 5.48 /5.19/5.33/5.51, 14.1 K%, 7.2 BB% (better than league average), 37.0 GB%, 38.3 FB%, 24.8 LD% (5.48 ERA & .295 BAA vs. PHI – 304 total batters faced in 2021) Miguel Yajure? (on taxi squad)
- Dillon Peters: 2.66/4.49/4.52/3.64, 19.6 K%, 7.8 BB%, 50.7 GB% (nice!), 34.2 FB% Crowe
- Mitch Keller: 6.14/4.71/4.80/5.66, 20.7 K%, 10.0 BB%, 39.2 GB%, 34.1 FB%, 26.7 LD% Max Kranick
A Tradition Like No Other… Great American Small Park
Reds are home all week for seven games… you know what to do.
Continue to Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
We already talked about Cleveland, and it seems logical to go back to them for a prime example of this late-season strategy. Cleveland hitters will far exceed your opposition purely in the number of at-bats they will generate in this penultimate week… tear. Said ABs will all take place in their home ballpark of Progressive Field (see park factors above). I mention this because José Ramírez is a historically better hitter at home. JRam hits 19 points higher at home for his career, possesses a .511 slugging percentage that is 20 points higher than his road tally, and overall gets on base at a decent clip (.367). This year’s numbers are right in line, only the SLG is a whopping .597!
In terms of potential streamers, Myles Straw has been swinging a hot stick with 13 base-knocks in his last 46 AB. Oscar Mercado has four extra-base hits in the past 14 days but only 21 ABs in that same time frame, so buyers beware of the platoon with Bradley Zimmer. The man I’m most intrigued by is Andrés Giménez. He too has been warming up the past seven days, and his team may see as little as three left-handed starters, a situation that often regulates the 23-year-old to the bench at this point of his career. Even six starts plus pinch-hitting opportunities could make for a fine week, but it would behoove Cleveland to take the gloves off and see what they got at this juncture.
Other Bad Offenses to Look At: Rockies – Six home games, but some tough pitching opposition: Julio Urías, Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer and Kevin Gausman.
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. As you see in the grid, two of the four series see this occur. With Baltimore, Trey Mancini always shifts to first base from DH, so you’re safe there. The only way I see him hitting the pine is if Baltimore wants to continue resting his abdominal soreness. It has kept him from the lineup five of the past six games, but he did start 9/17. Keep tabs on his health status entering the new week, as this series starts 9/20. Otherwise, Anthony Santander is the likeliest to hit the bench with a currently raging Austin Hays and lukewarm Ryan Mountcastle manning the corner outfield slots. Mountcastle and Santander would most probably rotate. As for Donaldson, why play him if you are Minnesota?
When the Mets travel to Boston, will Luis Rojas have an envious flashback from watching ‘Once Upon a Time in Queens’ and call for Sid Fernandez to replace Ron Darling? Not likely. What is likely? An opportunity to get Dom Smith’s bat in the lineup. New York is scheduled to face two left-handed pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale. Dom has hit better against the same handedness, so the opportunity may be there in the form of playing left field in place of the ever-slumping Jeff McNeil or playing first while Alonso fills the DH. With the two lefties going, Mets could also DH J.D. Davis. I’m not gonna worry about this too much since Met hitters have a short week.
Rivalry Series: Citrus
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Robbie Ray5 (@TB, @MIN)
- Julio Urías7 (@COL, @ARI)
- Joe Musgrove9 (SF, ATL)
- Kevin Gausman10 (@SD, @COL)
- Freddy Peralta23 (STL, NYM)
- Tyler Mahle26 (PIT, WSH)
- Carlos Rodón29 (@DET, @CLE)
- Framber Valdez38 (@LAA, @OAK)
- Alek Manoah40 (@TB, @MIN)
- Jordan Montgomery44 (TEX, @BOS)
- Marco Gonzales48 (@OAK, @LAA)
- Eduardo Rodriguez49 (NYM, NYY)
- Tyler Anderson51 (@OAK, @LAA)
- Huascar Ynoa55 (@ARI, @SD)
- Sean Manaea58 (SEA, HOU)
- Drew Rasmussen61 (TOR,
MIA) ← Shane Baz will make his MLB debut on 9/20, pushing everyone back a day. Michael Wacha pitched in relief 9/21 (and may move to pen ROS), but Ras could still lose second start in favor of Baz. - John Means64 (@PHI, TEX)
- Ranger Suárez65 (BAL, PIT)
- Triston McKenzie71 (KC, CHW)
Other Options: Vladimir Gutierrez82 (PIT, WSH), Touki Toussaint88 (@ARI, @SD)*, Alec Mills96 (MIN, STL), Dallas Keuchel113 (@DET, @CLE), Brady Singer123 (@CLE, @DET due to PPD & rotation reshuffling), Antonio Senzatela130 (LAD, SF), Erick Fedde133 (@MIA, @CIN), Jon Lester146 (@MIL, @CHC), Matt Manning149 (CHW, KC due to PPD)
*Touki’s father recently passed away, so he may be taking a bereavement leave. Condolences to the Toussaint family! 🙏
Update: I know it’s a business, and Braves are in a divisional race, but this is harsh. Although not explicitly stated, it appears Touki has lost rotation spot. He’ll be availavle to pitch in each game following the opener (BP games are the plan) but not necessarily as a primary pitcher.
Danger Zone: Josh RogersNR (@MIA, @CIN), Chris EllisNR (@PHI, TEX)*, A.J. AlexyNR (@NYY, @BAL), Dillon PetersNR & Mitch KellerNR (@CIN, @PHI), Jaime BarriaNR (HOU, SEA), Jake WoodfordNR (@MIL, @CHC), Humberto MejíaNR (ATL, LAD)*, Griffin JaxNR (@CHC, TOR)*, Paul BlackburnNR (SEA, HOU)*
*Added for the week with rotation changes – Conner Greene will make the spot start for Ellis’ first start (arm fatigue). No word what this means for Ellis’ second start (not on IL). You probably weren’t starting them, but JIC and for informational purposes, Peters & Keller’s second starts shift to next week due to 9/22 PPD and likely another start for pitching prospect Miguel Yajure (PIT’s No. 5 ranked prospect; No. 70 MLB).
For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Ray’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR SEPTEMBER 20 – 26
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Blake Snell’s fantasy season is likely over as his club doesn’t expect to make it back from the left adductor strain. San Diego’s playoff chances are decreasing by the day due to being bombed out and depleted like Buck Nasty’s suit. If they are still in contention late, he may be able to make it back for one final start. Barring that, Snell’s poor start to the season left him in a hole he wasn’t quite able to climb out from and has largely failed to meet expectations. He had been rounding into form, pre-injury. Since the beginning of August (8 starts), Snell posted a 1.83 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and a 65:14 K:BB across 44.1 innings. Something to build on as the Pads handle him with care.
Avisaíl García (lower back spasms) remains out of the line for the completion of the past week despite an expectation for return over the weekend. He is “just not to a point where we think he should play,” according to manager Craig Counsell. García hasn’t played since 9/14, so if he’s not able to make it back in the next day or two, he can be placed back retro three days and still have a shot to play before the season’s end. However, the team remains hopeful this will be avoided. Jace Peterson continues to man right field in García’s absence.
Hyun Jin Ryu (neck) woke up funny over the weekend following his last start and developed a neck strain, a.k.a. “old-man pains.” I know them well. Ryu is placed on the 10-day injured list and hopes to return when eligible on 9/28 (move retro to 9/18), missing only one start. Ross Stripling will make a spot start in his stead this week at Tampa Bay.
Jameson Taillon (torn tendon in right ankle) is set to make a Minor League rehab appearance this coming week with the hope that he would then be able to return to the rotation. Shaky ground, but we finally may see Luis Severino in pinstripes (too little too late). Severino is set to be activated from the injured list during the Yankees’ series against the Rangers. Severino’s return from Tommy John surgery has been slowed this season by a groin strain followed by right shoulder tightness.
Shane Bieber made a rehab start — his second as he comes back from a right shoulder strain — on 9/19 for Double-A Akron. He allowed three runs in 3.1 innings, throwing 57 pitches. He was expected to throw four innings but otherwise looked good. If that’s the final rehab start he needs, he could return on a reduced pitch count for Cleveland’s gauntlet of a week (would be ideal for an open spot on 9/24 vs. CHW). Time is ticking, but if this timeline works out, he could make two starts before the season’s end.
Bad news for Jesse Winker and his fantasy managers. Winker was placed back on the 10-day IL on 9/18 with the same intercostal strain that kept him out for more than a month. He had just returned to our lives, and now, his season is most likely over. Winker was on pace to post MVP-type numbers and will be high on my draft board for 2022.
Lastly, Chris Bassitt did not return from breaking his face this past week. This, we know. But he did throw another bullpen session, manager Bob Melvin said. Bassitt threw around 30 pitches in a simulated game at Angel Stadium on 9/18 as well and came out feeling good, according to Melvin. Bassitt could be activated from the 10-day IL to start the A’s series finale against the Mariners in Oakland, Ken Rosenthal tweeted.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Néstor Cortes Jr.110, LH NYY (TEX, @BOS; 50-60% owned) – When Gerrit Cole’s hammy started barking, Yankees found it prudent to give him some extra rest as a precaution. Good move. As a result, Cortes’ two-start week got pushed to this week, which is fine. At this point, he has earned my complete faith, coming off his 11 K performance against the O’s at Camden Yards. Boston’s offense can dash the hopes of those who dare to challenge them, but Cortes’ performance the game prior vs. TOR (6 IP, 6 H, 2 R (both on HRs), 0 BB, 5 K) gives me confidence he can handle elite offenses. He’s rolling ATM, so if he has hit your waiver wire, I say take a shot. Texas’ failures against southpaws are…
Honorable Mention: Jesús Luzardo150, LH MIA (WSH, @TB; 45-60% owned) – After Luzardo put together a solid streak of outings that showcased the potential he has, he gave up four runs to the Nationals. I think he will handle the Nats the second time around in Miami (excellent pitcher’s park), and the Rays’ strikeout rate (25.0%, 5th on the season; 22.1%, 16th since 8/1, though) keeps this start viable for the playoffs, especially in points leagues.
Solo Start: Logan Gilbert87, RH SEA (@LAA; 30-50% owned) – Angels are ripe for the picking, and Gilbert muscled up last time out against the Red Sox, striking out nine in six innings. Gilbert has a sky-high ceiling along with a 3.64 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 3.67 SIERA and 3.99 xERA. All of these marks are lower than his 4.97 ERA, and he carries a nice 26.6% strikeout rate on the year with a 5.1% walk rate. Gilbert may have been lost in the shuffle and may be hanging on your wire due to fantasy football craziness. DON’T let him stay there.
*I recommended streaming Joe Ryan (RHP, MIN) in this space last week, and now that his wrist contusion has checked out, we will continue to ride Captain America to the finish line with some gorgeous matchups (@CHC with the winds blowing in at 25 MPH, DET, @KC).
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Saturday, September 25, 2021
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Kris Bubic (LHP, KC) | 5-6 | 4.80 | 4.68 | 4.86 | 5.51 | 20.4% | 11.5% | 39.2% | 31.8% | ||||||||
Wily Peralta (RHP, DET) | 4-3 | 3.04 | 4.84 | 5.14 | 4.47 | 15.0% | 9.2% | 37.1% | 30.5% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Dane Dunning (RHP, TEX) | 5-9 | 4.34 | 3.75 | 4.04 | 4.72 | 22.3% | 7.8% | 43.7% | 26.2% | ||||||||
John Means (LHP, BAL) | 6-7 | 3.25 | 4.44 | 4.16 | 4.03 | 22.5% | 4.7% | 36.9% | 48.1% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Max Kranick (RHP, PIT) | 1-3 | 7.28 | 5.75 | 5.24 | 4.60 | 17.6% | 9.9% | 33.3% | 41.8% | ||||||||
Adonis Medina* (RHP, PHI) | 4-5 | 5.05 | 4.66 | — | — | 18.5% | 8.7% | — | 31.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Josh Rogers (LHP, WSH) | 2-0 | 2.16 | 5.24 | 5.11 | 4.82 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 39.2% | 43.8% | ||||||||
Tyler Mahle (RHP, CIN) | 12-6 | 3.66 | 3.78 | 3.81 | 3.78 | 27.7% | 8.4% | 33.9% | 37.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Lucas Giolito (RHP, CHW) | 10-9 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.68 | 3.31 | 28.4% | 7.4% | 34.4% | 41.5% | ||||||||
Triston McKenzie (RHP, CLE) | 5-7 | 4.67 | 4.35 | 4.17 | 4.26 | 28.4% | 11.1% | 42.6% | 48.7% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Jesús Luzardo (LHP, MIA) | 5-8 | 7.01 | 5.19 | 5.02 | 5.70 | 20.6% | 11.5% | 39.0% | 40.5% | ||||||||
Shane Baz* (RHP, TB) | 3-0 | 1.76 | 2.99 | — | — | 36.0% | 6.2% | — | 36.5% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Alek Manoah (RHP, TOR) | 7-2 | 3.36 | 4.22 | 4.02 | 3.52 | 26.6% | 9.0% | 30.7% | 38.6% | ||||||||
Griffin Jax (RHP, MIN) | 3-4 | 6.75 | 5.71 | 5.04 | 5.96 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 46.1% | 51.1% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Carlos Carrasco (RHP, NYM) | 1-3 | 5.24 | 3.92 | 4.14 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 6.3% | 39.4% | 33.8% | ||||||||
Freddy Peralta (RHP, MIL) | 9-5 | 2.65 | 3.63 | 3.38 | 2.65 | 34.1% | 9.9% | 30.1% | 47.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Jake Woodford (RHP, STL) | 3-3 | 3.92 | 5.00 | 4.76 | 4.60 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 40.8% | 35.5% | ||||||||
Keegan Thompson (RHP, CHC) | 3-3 | 3.40 | 4.96 | 4.91 | 5.59 | 21.0% | 13.1% | 44.3% | 35.2% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Kevin Gausman (RHP, SF) | 14-6 | 2.92 | 3.33 | 3.48 | 3.62 | 29.0% | 6.7% | 41.3% | 36.3% | ||||||||
Antonio Senzatela (RHP, COL) | 4-9 | 4.14 | 4.08 | 4.33 | 4.26 | 16.2% | 4.6% | 43.0% | 26.7% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Jake Odorizzi (RHP, HOU) | 6-7 | 4.22 | 4.71 | 4.52 | 4.73 | 21.3% | 7.7% | 39.2% | 44.1% | ||||||||
Paul Blackburn (RHP, OAK) | 1-3 | 5.17 | 4.47 | 4.60 | 5.26 | 16.2% | 5.6% | 51.4% | 29.6% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) | 9-5 | 4.14 | 5.11 | 4.92 | 5.37 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 36.9% | 46.8% | ||||||||
Shohei Ohtani (RHP, LAA) | 9-2 | 3.28 | 3.61 | 3.70 | 3.44 | 28.9% | 8.7% | 40.4% | 35.1% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Julio Urías (LHP, LAD) | 18-3 | 3.10 | 3.70 | 3.61 | 3.22 | 26.4% | 5.0% | 30.2% | 41.0% | ||||||||
Humberto Mejía (RHP, ARI) | 0-2 | 7.20 | 4.31 | 4.60 | 5.19 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 39.2% | 33.3% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Drew Smyly* (RHP, ATL) | 10-4 | 4.65 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 5.09 | 21.7% | 7.2% | 38.7% | 39.2% | ||||||||
Joe Musgrove (RHP, SD) | 11-9 | 3.15 | 3.69 | 3.71 | 3.84 | 27.0% | 7.2% | 37.1% | 33.9% |
W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
Jordan Montgomery (LHP, NYY) | 6-6 | 3.55 | 3.87 | 4.02 | 4.06 | 24.9% | 7.7% | 35.4% | 36.1% | ||||||||
Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, BOS) | 11-8 | 4.97 | 3.51 | 3.68 | 3.67 | 27.0% | 6.8% | 34.3% | 35.0% |
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY!