In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: Basic week for the last full one of August with a majority of teams scheduled for six games. Almost as if the schedule makers are accounting for the dog days. Only the Blue Jays, Royals, White Sox, Pirates and Diamondbacks (five teams) will play seven. Like Toronto and Washington hitters last week, the Rays, Tigers, Angels, Braves and Padres have only five games on the docket, and it’s the last three teams who have a weird-ass week. LAA and SD’s games are scheduled from 8/24-8/28 (Tuesday-Saturday; no Sunday game). The two face each other in interleague play. Atlanta, who hosts the Yankees to begin the week, has two off days in a row (8-25/26). We’ll discuss these series more below in this week’s Interleague Outlook. But first…
Congratulations for Miggy are in order, finally joining the 500 Home Run Club!!! Miguel Cabrera is the 28th player in Major League Baseball history to reach the 500 home run plateau and the first player to accomplish the feat since David Ortiz in 2015 and his friend and mentor Albert Pujols in 2014. Next up, Cabrera is only 45 hits shy of 3000. Maybe not this season, but Miggy would be the seventh player ever to reach 500/3000.
A Few Areas to Target
Continue To Rock Out With The D’backs
Last week, we discussed how and why it’s important to take advantage of bad offenses in good situations. Well, the ride continues out in the desert. Once again, D’back hitters will be streamable, plus add on a seventh game this week. They are touring the Keystone State with three in Pittsburgh and four in Philly. The Pirates have the fifth-highest ERA (5.69), and Phillies sit middle of the pack. Continue to utilize Josh Rojas and Christian Walker, but also see if an owner dropped Daulton Varsho or David Peralta. Also, pay attention to some other lowly teams who may be in a similar spot (i.e. Pittsburgh Pirates, complete with the Spiderman pointing at another Spiderman meme)!
Crosstown Classic
We’ll dive more into this series in just a second. But first, I want to discuss the White Sox side of things. They wrap up their seven-game week with the Cubbies and their team ERA of 6.86 since the trade deadline (second-highest). Fireworks should be going off in Guaranteed Rate Field (Park Factors: 0.966 R/1.238 HR, according to EliteData). The Pale Hose do have four potentially tricky matchups on the docket for their trip north of the border, but I like the park factors there, too!
Ohtani & Cruz Watch
As we know, the Angels and Rays are two teams with a week-low five games. Yet, both of these superstars are in different situations. Shohei Ohtani will have all of his games in AL ballparks, and the pitching matchups are favorable. In leagues where he’s just a hitter, I would go ahead and still start him there. If you can pitch him, Ohtani does have a dreamy matchup @BAL. Camden Yards can be an evil bitch, however. So, I’m starting him as a hitter. For Cruz, he was placed on the CVD-19 IL on 8/22. We don’t know if he tested positive so no real idea of how long he’ll miss. In either event, his week was crappy anyway. Not only does TB have a short week, but two games will be without a DH in Philadelphia. We’ll discuss the other options below, but bench Cruz.
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. This week, three of the six interleague series will transpire in NL Parks, causing headaches for managers and fantasy managers alike. Starting with New York, and as we witnessed with their series in Miami, Yankees will look to keep Joey Gallo and Stanton’s mighty bats in the lineup. Apologies, Captain Yankee Gardner, but Aaron Judge looks just fine in center field. So, we fantasy owners should be fine here with the aforementioned mainstays of our lineups (Gardner roughly 15% owned).
Much like Atlanta, Tampa Bay hitters only see five games this week due to their interleague schedule. This probably means a migration to your bench outside of Meadows, Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe. Well, I’m here to tell you that we are going to be ok! With Kevin Kiermaier back in the fold, things might seem complicated, but I expect Phillips to sit for two games. Or at least that was the plan in their last interleague series against… the Braves. ::Insert your favorite cliché… Small World! What goes around comes around. Déjà vu all over again::
Maybe Miggy just takes two days off to chug some champagne?! Nah, that wouldn’t be his style, plus he has played 36 games at first base this year. Remember, 45 hits shy of 3000. The best version of the Tigers lineup with the pitcher batting involves Miggy at first, Jonathan Schoop at second and Harold Castro (or Zack Short when they face Jon Lester) at shortstop. Most likely excludes the “other” Castro, although with the Tigers designating Renato Núñez for assignment, there could be more time available for Willi in the infield or even left field. Much ado about nothing minus Schoop. I just wanted to congratulate Miggy again.
For the glass-half-full people, we move onto the NL teams gaining the DH and begin with the Crosstown Classic. For the North Siders, this matchup presents an opportunity to activate Contreras (sprained knee) ahead of schedule and DH him. He has been able to do some catching in addition to running, but his knee hasn’t healed enough for full activity behind the plate. Furthermore, Contreras would line up to face South Siders Dallas Keuchel (2-for-5, 1 3B, 1 HR), Reynaldo López and Lance Lynn. When Milwaukee travels to Minnesota, they will have the opportunity to have both Tellez and Urías in the batting order. Hot Rod certainly has DH experience! Eduardo Escobar’s potential injury could intensify this situation even further (see Injured List Report below).
Finally, we have the two-game series between the Friars and the Halos – oh, I just now realized why they have off on Sunday. Mr. Myers will be saying his prayers and eating his vitamins in Anaheim. Pads would be wise to give Tatis DH duties to avoid injury risk while he’s still learning the outfield.
Rivalry Series: Crosstown Classic
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
EXPECT FEWER OPTIONS ROS AS MORE TEAMS GO SIX-MAN
- Corbin Burnes3 (CIN, @MIN)
- Lance Lynn7 (@TOR, CHC)
- Julio Urías10 (@SD, COL) ← Expected to come off IL 8/24
- Zack Greinke12 (KC, @TEX)
- José Berríos13 (CHW, @DET)
- Tyler Mahle25 (@MIL, @MIA)
- Jack Flaherty28 (DET, @PIT)
- Madison Bumgarner51 (@PIT, @PHI)
- Alek Manoah56 (CHW, @DET) ← Out on bereavement leave but should return for next trip through rotation.
- Marco Gonzales64 (@OAK, KC)
- Nick Pivetta70 (MIN, @CLE)
Yup, that’s it!
Other Options: JT Brubaker107 (ARI, STL), Ranger Suárez117 (TB, ARI), Daniel Lynch125 (@HOU, @SEA)*, Adbert Alzolay126 (COL, @CHW*)
*Cubs have options if they wanna ease Alzolay back from IL with only one start (Keegan Thompson, Adrian Sampson). Maybe prudent, for both the team and ours, to skip the lethal ChiSox. As for Lynch, he dominated the mighty Stros on 8/17 much to many’s surprise. But facing them again six days later and on the road this time, I have to be skeptical of a repeat performance. I ranked him up here due to talent and recent performance but also wouldn’t mind if you skip him or just start him @SEA.
Danger Zone: Eli Morgan139 (TEX, BOS), Sammy Long148 (@NYM, @ATL), Wil CroweNR (ARI, STL), Griffin JaxNR (@BOS, MIL), Antonio SenzatelaNR (@CHC, @LAD), Jesús LuzardoNR (WSH, CIN), Spenser WatkinsNR (LAA, TB), Paul BlackburnNR (SEA, NYY*)
*Blackburn, who is filling in for the injured Chris Bassitt, is only guaranteed for the SEA start but would line up for two if he pitches well enough to hold it down. Daulton Jefferies remains with Triple-A Las Vegas for the moment but also remains a viable option.
For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUGUST 23 – 29
Pitcher Spotlight: Brandon Woodruff
What has happened to Brandon Woodruff? His past two starts have been his worst outings of the season. Additionally, over his past eight trips to the hill, Woodruff has uncharacteristically given up three or more runs in half of them, culminating in the six earned he coughed up against St. Louis last time out. Over this stretch of games, he has a 3.86 ERA (2.48 on the season), 3.13 FIP (2.90), 1.29 WHIP (0.936) and 1.78 ABA (1.36). Not terrible numbers, by any means, but a stark contrast to a bulk of the season and enough to lower his Cy Young odds behind frontrunner Walker Buehler and teammate Corbin Burnes. So, what’s the problem?
Side Note: Speaking of odds, for the best sports betting advice in the business, click the link!!!
This rough stretch has coincided with a sharp decline in fastball usage. According to Tim Muma of Brew Crew Ball, “in Woodruff’s last two starts, he threw his fastball less than 58% of the time in each game, while tossing the curve 20% and 21.6%. For the season, Woodruff uses the fastball on more than 60% of his pitches and the curveball less than 17%. Whether the change was for strategic purposes, a ‘feel’ thing, or some other reason – it hasn’t worked.” Muma also points out, in the same sample size I referenced (last eight starts), Woodruff’s fastball usage has been below the 60% threshold. Pinpointing four starts of the eight (which are most responsible for the fastball decline), his ERA is 4.66. Additionally, he has a 1.68 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 12.6 H/9.
In Woodruff’s other 20 starts, here are his statistics: 2.14 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.1 H/9. The 29.7% CSW is still a fine mark and above league average, but it has lowered from a good 30.3% output due to this stretch. Also, his 12.3% swinging-strike rate has gone down (again, still good overall). As a result, Woodruff’s SIERA has “ballooned” to 3.37.
Is the “other reason” an issue of tiring out due to lack of innings in 2020? After all, Woody has almost doubled the number of frames this year (145.1 to 73.2). Furthermore, his previous MLB high in a season was the 121.2 IP in 2019. Going back further to include minor-league starts, he fired 113.2 innings in 2018 between the minors and majors and 120.1 in 2017. You have to go back to 2016, in High-A/Double-A, to see this level of innings (158). However, his fastball velo has remained consistent during this rough stretch (96.5mph) when compared to his season average (96.6mph).
Remember when Muma stated the increase in curveball usage? Here may be the culprit. In the other 20 starts referenced above, there were, in fact, three other starts where Woodruff went below 60% fastball usage. And in those starts (20.2 IP), he gave up three earned runs on seven hits and six walks total along with 26 punchouts. What was the difference? His second-most pitch delivered was not the curveball. In one start vs. ARI, it was the changeup (19.4%). And in the other two games, he threw his slider over 22% of the time. It would behoove Woodruff to throw the curve less and his other secondary pitches more.
In conclusion, a pitch strategy shift to what was working earlier in the season will get Woodruff back on track for the Cy Young and helping us win a chip!
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
This Just In… The Giants were initially optimistic Anthony DeSclafani (right ankle inflammation) would avoid the injured list after ankle discomfort cut short his start on 8/18. A follow-up MRI did not show any structural damage, and Disco was set to play catch and have a BP session over the weekend. However, Kerry Crowley of The San Jose Mercury News reports DeSclafani was only able to play catch and never had the BP session. In turn, San Fran places him on the 10-day IL, but it is unknown as of this writing if this is either a) for precaution, b) a means to manage innings, or c) indicative of a setback. We should hear word in the coming days, or not. This is Major League Baseball in 2021, after all.
Speaking of which, no need to worry about Evan Longoria. He’s on the IL for vaccine side effects and could return in time for the Giants’ series opener against the Mets.
Eduardo Escobar (hamstring) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on 8/22 after leaving that day’s game with right hamstring discomfort. The results are unknown at the time of this writing, as are his chances of taking an IL trip. If Escobar does need time to mend, Luis Urías and Jace Peterson would be in line for increased at-bats. Milwaukee’s Trade Deadline acquisition has hit .291 with two homers and an .810 OPS in his first 20 games with the club.
Kenta Maeda (right forearm tightness) – Maeda turned in a subpar performance on 8/21 against the surging Yankees. To add injury to insult, he was removed in the fifth inning due to the forearm issue. He will undergo an MRI and other tests to diagnose and see if it’s a situation that will indeed warrant a trip to the IL. Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli told Phil Miller of The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, “I don’t see very many scenarios right now where it’s not going to take some time to get Kenta back where he needs to be.” Continue to monitor.
Javier Báez (back spasms) was activated from the IL on 8/22 and had himself a game. Good friend and new teammate Francisco Lindor (oblique) is right behind him, and the Mets intend to activate him this week (as early as 8/24). As for the men who (normally) toe the rubber, Jacob deGrom (right elbow inflammation) is in a holding pattern in his rehab. He won’t throw a baseball until he undergoes another MRI on 8/27. And Noah Syndergaard is scheduled to throw at least one more live batting practice session this week at Citi Field before going on a rehab assignment.
Good news for Yu Darvish owners… Darvish threw a bullpen session on 8/20 and another on 8/22, his first two since he exited his start on Aug. 12 with lower back tightness. Darvish could be slated to return to the rotation this week without having to make a minor-league rehab start beforehand. The timing would be crucial, as SD needs a starter for the opening game of a vital series with the Dodgers. He shouldn’t be on any kind of pitch count. There had been some speculation that teammate Chris Paddack (oblique) would also return this week to complete the tour of LA, but the final week of August or the first week of September is the best-case scenario. Paddack is scheduled for another BP session on 8/23, and if all goes well, he’ll face live hitters later in the week.
Chris Bassitt is set to undergo facial reconstruction surgery on 8/24 to secure displaced bones from his face. God bless you, CBass!
Dylan Carlson (right wrist sprain) has resumed swinging, but only from the left side. He was still feeling some discomfort swinging from the right as of 8/22. He’ll continue to test himself as he tries to return for the series opener against Detroit.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Tylor Megill77, RH NYM (SF, WSH; 50-55% owned) – Megill was a thing when he was first called up and rattled off some exquisite performances. After a brief lull against Miami and Philadelphia on the road, Megill got right against the unlikeliest of foes, the Los Angeles Dodgers (5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K). It’s always hard to stream a pitcher against the best team in baseball, especially since San Fran just saw him on 8/18 (6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K), but Megill has the variety in his pitches and is trustworthy. Fantasy managers may have let him walk, and with the Nats there to offset any damage the Giants may do, he will have a successful week. After all, Megill is motivated to build his value for 2022.
Honorable Mention: Erick Fedde134, RH WSH (@MIA, @NYM; 20% owned) – Matchup play and did look sharp against Toronto last time out.
Solo Start: Carlos Hernández132, RH KC (@SEA; 35-40% owned) – Hernández looked good in his start against Houston (which is hard to do) on 8/16. He had a couple of sandwiched innings that made the line look worse than the actual performance. Although, the downside was the lone strikeout. He corrected this greatly in his next start at the Cubs on 8/22, which is obviously a much better matchup (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K). Guess what, this week’s matchup is also better and loaded with strikeout potential, too (25.8% K%, fourth-highest in MLB; 25.6% K% vs. RHP, third-highest). Yeah, I’m rolling him out again in a plus-matchup, and it’s fine to cut bait if he struggles here.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
OFF THIS WEEK – Hey fam, I’m off this week, taking my first vaca in three years! I thought they would have to pry my laptop from my cold, dead hands, but nonetheless, I’m headed off the grid. What this means is there won’t be the normal updates and daily pitching matchups listed for this period only. For the following week (Aug 30 – Sept 5), my plan is to compile the Game Breakdown Grid, Two-Start Pitching list and Pitching Rankings in a condensed format Sunday night/Monday morning so that I’m not leaving you hanging for a potentially important week. I will do my best to accomplish this.
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY!
