In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
In memory of John Cannella Sr.
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: This week’s grid is lit up like a fucking Christmas tree! Blue Jays and Nationals draw the short end with five games this week, due in large part to their interleague series. Is it just me, or has Toronto had several five-game weeks this season. Maybe it’s because I miss their bats tenfold. Orioles, Rays, Royals, White Sox, Twins, Angels, A’s, Astros, Marlins, Mets, Reds and Dodgers play seven games this week, while the Yanks get eight with a doubleheader against rival Boston (more on that below).
Mets are out on the west coast for seven (SF – 3, LAD – 4) but with horrid pitching matchups: Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani, Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, David Price and then some respite with Mitch White*. Coupled with poor ballpark factors at Oracle Park (0.798 R, 0.691 HR) according to EliteData, Mets hitters take a hit despite seven games. The offense has been picking up steam, and Dodger Stadium does boast 0.905 and 1.128 run and home run factors respectively, but I’m not fooled, so neither should you! Phillies are out in the desert and Cali as well, but with far better pitching matchups: Matt Peacock/Taylor Widener, Madison Bumgarner, Tyler Gilbert (fresh off his improbable no-no; first player to throw a no-hitter in his first MLB start since Bobo Holloman in 1953 for the St. Louis Browns), Joe Musgrove, Reiss Knehr and Ryan Weathers.
*UPDATE: Dodgers brought up their No. 10 prospect, Andre Jackson, to pitch in bulk relief on 8/16 (mind you, at 8:12p ET for a 10:10 game… savage). If they continue with this plan to aid the rotation, my Mets’ woes will become even heavier.
A Few Areas to Target
The Rose Goes in the Front, Big Guy
With all the love Field of Dreams is getting, I felt it necessary to quote another epic Kevin Costner baseball film. What is your favorite baseball movie? Let us know in the chat! Everything is rosy for New York hitters – boom, segue – as they are in an extremely favorable spot this week. As mentioned previously, Yankees play a week-high eight games (six + doubleheader), and they all come at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium (1.020 R, 1.077 HR). Play all Bronx Bombers’ bats during this scoring period. “Don’t think; it can only hurt the ball club.”
Rocky Mountain High
The Rockies are home for a pair of three-game series vs. division foes. According to FanGraphs, they rank first in wOBA (.355) and third in ISO (.201) at home in 2021. It’s all systems go for your Rockies hitters. . . almost. Be aware that they face an even balance of LHP/RHP. Further complicating matters, they will see two bullpen games (one from SD and the other from ARI) with both a lefty and a righty beginning each game. This gives me pause on playing Sam Hilliard, which is a bummer cause I had this week earmarked to start him. Sam has sat the past two games with Colorado facing off against southpaws. Even if he starts the lefty-led BP game, he probably only sees four starts this week.
Friar Tatis
The aforementioned Pads are one of the teams visiting Coors Field this week, giving all their hitters a bump in value, including your new right fielder, Fernando Tatis Jr. To conclude their six-game week, they host Philadelphia yet will miss Cy Young contending Zack Wheeler. Instead, they will see Matt Moore, Aaron Nola and Kyle Gibson. Not necessarily a walk in the park, but arms they can square up. May God be with you and stay healthy!
Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
Diamondback and Marlin hitters are not exactly, how do you say, in demand fantasy-wise. But here is where you can get creative by paying attention to the schedule. You already know Arizona is the other team visiting Denver. Daily league players can have a field day with streaming the likes of Nick Ahmed, Josh Rojas, Christian Walker and even old-man Asdrubal Cabrera, all of whom have been hitting well the past two weeks and are widely available. And before they hit the slopes, a home matchup vs. Philly does present that Wheeler guy, but Gibson and Ranger Suárez don’t exactly give me a sweat for weekly-lock leagues. Miami hosts Atlanta for three games before traveling to everyone’s favorite destination spot for four… Great American Small Park. Keep Lewis Brinson, Miguel Rojas, Jorge Alfaro and possibly Isan Diaz on your streaming radar.
WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. We mentioned the Blue Jays and Nationals having five games this week due to this once-all-Canadian historic rivalry. To lump on for the Jays, they’ll be without their DH for two games. Nationals plan on throwing Erick Fedde and Josiah Gray – two right-handers – meaning Grichuk and/or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are likely the odd men out.
When it comes to deciphering who Gabe Kapler will start at DH in the Battle of the Bay, an advanced degree in Calculus is required. Since I don’t have that degree, I’ll turn towards the pitching matchups: Sean Manaea (L), Frankie Montas (R) and Chris Bassitt (R). Expect righty bats of Flores and the returning Longoria (among others) to crack the lineup vs. Manaea, and the DH will help that matter. Against the righties, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Tommy La Stella should be in there along with Longoria at DH. Using this same logic for the Braves, Atlanta will see two left-handers (Keegan Akin, John Means) along with Matt Harvey. Heredia benefits from this split as the righty in platoon with Joc, but DH could allow for Pederson to remain in the lineup or more at-bats for Ehire Adrianza.
Rivalry Series: Bay Bridge Series
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
EXPECT FEWER OPTIONS ROS AS MORE TEAMS GO SIX-MAN
- Corbin Burnes3 (@STL,
WSH) ← Now that Adrian Houser is healthy, he re-enters rotation to return to six-man; bumps Burnes to 8/24 - Kevin Gausman5 (NYM, @OAK)
- Gerrit Cole7 (LAA, MIN)
- Chris Bassitt15 (@CHW,
SF) ← Will undergo surgery for displaced & fractured cheekbone; out for six weeks, and with time needed to ramp up, he is likely done for 2021. - Marcus Stroman20 (@SF, @LAD)
- Sandy Alcantara26 (ATL, @CIN)
- Adam Wainwright31 (MIL, PIT)
- Nathan Eovaldi32 (@NYY, TEX)
- Frankie Montas39 (@CHW, SF)
- Jordan Montgomery41 (BOS,
MIN) ← Luis Gil was scheduled for recall to push Monty back a day, but Hurricane Henri put the kibosh to both this plan and teh game. - Framber Valdez44 (@KC, SEA)
- John Means45 (@TB, ATL)
- Logan Webb46 (NYM, @OAK) ← SF skipping Johnny Cueto’s spot altogether and rest of staff pitching on regular rest, giving Webb a second start this week. Against NYM, Webb pitched into the eighth with a shoutout and 8 Ks before giving up two runs and leaving the game.
- Wade Miley50 (CHC, MIA)
- Kyle Gibson61 (@ARI, @SD)
- Jake Odorizzi63 (@KC, SEA)
Other Options: Josh Fleming97 (BAL, CHW), David Price112 (PIT, NYM), Cal Quantrill118 (@MIN, LAA), Bailey Ober120 (CLE, @NYY*), Dallas Keuchel122 (OAK, @TB), Rich Hill124 (@SF, @LAD), Tyler Anderson125 (@TEX, @HOU), José Suarez132 (@NYY, @CLE), Carlos Hernández133 (HOU, @CHC)
*Touki Toussaint119 is slated for a two-start week as of this writing (@MIA, @BAL), and the matchups are ideal for a big week. However, Ian Anderson (IL, shoulder) made his second rehab appearance (64 pitches), is scheduled for one more on 8/17, and would project for activation 8/22 @BAL. Anderson must like the number three because he covered three innings in the second rehab start, giving up three runs on three hits and three walks while striking out three. This is the type of situation that makes weekly-lock leaguers hit the bottle. Monitor up until the final horn and keep expectations to one start for Touki. Otherwise, look to maximize this situation for biweekly and daily leagues. *UPDATE: Ober loses his second start this week because of a rotation shift with John Gant.
Danger Zone: Erick Fedde134 (TOR, @MIL), Matt Harvey152 (@TB, ATL), Reynaldo LópezNR (OAK, @TB)*, Steven BraultNR (@LAD, @STL), Antonio SenzatelaNR (SD, ARI), Ryan WeathersNR (@COL, PHI), Spencer HowardNR (SEA, @BOS)*, Mitch WhiteNR (PIT, NYM), Braxton GarrettNR (ATL, @CIN*)*
*López will stay in the rotation with Carlos Rodón on the shelf and not expected back till Chicago’s series at Toronto (8/23-26). Lance Lynn could have gotten this two-start on regular rest, but ChiSox will opt to give him an extra day’s rest. For Garrett, he most likely sees this two-step unless either a) Marlins wanna manage his innings, or b) Trevor Rogers is ready to return from Family Medical Emergency List. Doubt most of you are going here anyway with these matchups. *UPDATE: Garrett demoted to Triple-A after first start. Texas shuffled their rotation by adding Howards’ tandem-mate(?), Taylor Hearn, to a six-man setup. Hearn gets the nod 8/17, while Howard is being pushed to 8/19 for seven days’ rest.
For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUGUST 16 – 22
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
As expected, Yu Darvish (lower-back tightness) has been placed on the 10-day injured list after firing only 74 pitches in 2.2 IP on 8/12 before the back became an issue. Giving the 34-year-old and two-time Cy Young Award runner-up a start or two off is a prudent move. However, it comes at a costly time for his owners. Reiss Knehr was recalled from Triple-A El Paso in a corresponding move. He will be counted on to pick up a spot start.
Julio Urías (calf contusion) took a pitch off his left calf while attempting a sacrifice bunt on 8/13. Even though he would go on to pitch two more innings, the calf has bruised to the point a trip to the 10-day IL is warranted. The good news is, with an off day on 8/23, Urías may miss only one start. The 25-year-old lefty, who’s in his sixth season already (wow!), has tossed 139.2 innings across 24 starts. Assuming the ailment is minor, it remains to be seen if LA will bring Urías back when first eligible or use this time to manage innings. His previous career-highs were 79.2 IP in 2019 (MLB) and 87.2 IP in 2014 (High-A). He totaled 134.2 IP the past two seasons. A division race with San Francisco probably makes it all for naught.
More bad news for the Nationals pitching staff. After what was believed to be right forearm tightness, as is often the case with this precursor, Joe Ross has been diagnosed with a partial UCL tear in his right elbow. Manager Dave Martinez said Ross will undergo tests and consult with physicians to determine if Tommy John surgery is warranted. If so, this would mark the second time he would have had the procedure since 2017. No bueno! Ross is most likely done for the season even if surgery is not required. He posted a 5-9 record with a 4.17 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 23.7% strikeout rate (29.8% CSW, career-high) and a 7.4% walk rate. Martinez says that Sean Nolin could potentially get another start in Ross’s absence once a fifth starter is required 8/28, according to Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post.
Francisco Lindor (oblique) could return to the Mets’ lineup as soon as their next homestand, according to manager Luis Rojas. Following a West Coast road trip, Mets return to Citi Field to begin a series against the Giants on 8/24. This past weekend, Lindor was seen taking infield and batting practice from both sides of the plate.
George Springer had to leave the Blue Jays’ game against the Mariners on 8/14 after landing awkwardly on his left ankle while trying for a leaping catch in center field. He was held out of the lineup 8/15 but showed “good improvement,” Mitch Bannon of SI.com reports.
Rhys Hoskins (strained left groin) Update – Hoskins received a cortisone injection to help speed up the healing (ouch!). The hope is he can be activated during the Phillies’ upcoming road trip, which begins 8/17 in Arizona. Hoskins has said he “is getting better every day.”
Michael Pineda was placed on the 10-day IL with a mild left oblique strain (8/14), a day after he exited his start in the third inning. Originally seen as just some side tightness, the pain is severe enough for the Twins to skip him at least one turn through the rotation. No timetable for a return has been announced.
We’ll end with some good news… Huascar Ynoa will be activated to start 8/17 @MIA, manager Brian Snitker confirmed. He has been on the injured list since May 17 due to a fractured right hand.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Griffin Jax145, RH MIN (CLE, @NYY; 15-25% owned) – The home-run ball plagues Jax in his brief stay in the bigs (2.37 HR/9). However, you have to take notice when a pitcher sits down 10 White Sox batters, a feat not often matched this year. The Cleveland matchup is good, but he could run into trouble against the Yankees if the home run issues continue. Deep league streamer with upside if you are massively down *UPDATE: 8/22 has been PPD already due to Hurricane Henri, and Jax’ next start should come 8/24 @BOS. Here’s a glance into the future; with games against Boston and Milwaukee next week, I’ll be passing on Mr. Jax!
Honorable Mention: Justin SteeleNR, LH CHC (@CIN, KC; 10-15% owned) – Another deep league streamer, although there is less risk here than you may think. Pitching for the Cubs offers low win probability, but Steele has shown a propensity for keeping the ball on the ground (66.7% GB rate in 18.1 major-league innings; 50.8% 27.1 IP Triple-A), which will be vital at Great American Ball Park. Furthermore, the Reds have the 10th highest K rate vs. LHP at 24.0% and are 25th in OPS (.701), 25th in wOBA (.306) and 27th in wRC+ (87) against the handedness. This sets up Steele to keep lefty bats Jesse Winker, Mike Moustakas and Tyler Naquin at bay (left off Joey Votto cause nobody is getting this guy out these days). Lastly, Steele could come out ahead with a nice matchup against the Royals to end his week.
*UPDATE: With Keegan Thompson entering the Cubs rotation on 8/21, Steele will be bumped to next week.
Shallow League: Vladimir Gutierrez128, RH CIN (CHC, MIA; 55% owned) – VladGut, which is a perfect combined brainchild for Vlad Sedler, aka RotoGut, has been on quite the roll with four straight victories and quality starts in seven of his last nine trips to the bump. In his last 19.1 IP, the 25-year-old has a 2.33 ERA and 21:8 K:BB. These starts did involve cream-puff matchups (KC, NYM x2, CHC, PIT) but some challenges too with ATLx2, SD, and MIL. Observe the italics for the Cubbies, who are a Triple-A team now, and note the second start against Miami.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!
PITCHING MATCHUPS
Sunday, August 22, 2021
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Touki Toussaint (RHP, ATL) | 2-2 | 4.01 | 4.22 | 4.03 | 4.52 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 48.9% | 39.1% | ||||||||
| John Means (LHP, BAL) | 5-5 | 3.44 | 4.38 | 4.08 | 4.07 | 23.0% | 4.2% | 36.1% | 48.1% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Drew Hutchison* (RHP, DET) | 8-3 | 3.63 | 4.71 | — | — | 23.8% | 11.1% | — | 36.0% | ||||||||
| Steven Matz (LHP, TOR) | 10-7 | 4.08 | 3.86 | 4.02 | 3.96 | 23.3% | 6.9% | 36.5% | 31.6% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Kolby Allard (LHP, TEX) | 3-10 | 4.88 | 4.39 | 4.24 | 4.64 | 19.9% | 4.5% | 37.7% | 40.7% | ||||||||
| Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, BOS) | 10-8 | 3.91 | 3.67 | 3.75 | 3.48 | 24.1% | 4.5% | 34.9% | 34.7% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Reynaldo López (RHP, CHW) | 2-0 | 1.08 | 3.71 | 3.45 | 3.02 | 28.9% | 7.8% | 35.1% | 43.9% | ||||||||
| Chris Archer* (RHP, TB) | 0-1 | 3.86 | 3.50 | — | — | 29.1% | 5.5% | — | 35.3% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Sandy Alcantara (RHP, MIA) | 7-11 | 3.39 | 3.84 | 4.05 | 3.48 | 21.7% | 7.1% | 38.3% | 28.3% | ||||||||
| Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP, CIN) | 8-4 | 3.87 | 5.22 | 5.11 | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 36.4% | 42.5% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Tyler Anderson (LHP, SEA) | 6-8 | 4.10 | 4.44 | 4.46 | 4.19 | 19.5% | 5.2% | 34.0% | 41.7% | ||||||||
| Framber Valdez (LHP, HOU) | 8-4 | 3.16 | 3.64 | 3.88 | 3.58 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 41.9% | 15.6% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Sean Nolin* (LHP, WSH) | 3-3 | 3.80 | 4.02 | — | — | 26.0% | 7.5% | — | 35.4% | ||||||||
| Adrian Houser* (RHP, MIL) | 7-5 | 3.55 | 4.25 | 4.65 | 4.30 | 18.1% | 10.9% | 40.3% | 21.3% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Steven Brault (LHP, PIT) | 0-1 | 1.84 | 4.08 | 3.96 | 6.57 | 21.4% | 3.6% | — | 39.0% | ||||||||
| Adam Wainwright (RHP, STL) | 11-7 | 3.26 | 3.83 | 4.03 | 4.01 | 22.5% | 6.2% | 37.6% | 31.0% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Carlos Hernández* (RHP, KC) | 3-1 | 4.33 | 4.53 | 4.48 | 4.07 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 41.4% | 36.7% | ||||||||
| Alec Mills* (RHP, CHC) | 5-5 | 4.19 | 4.22 | 4.38 | 4.55 | 16.9% | 6.8% | 39.0% | 24.7% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Taylor Widener (RHP, ARI) | 1-1 | 4.59 | 5.16 | 4.61 | 5.38 | 24.0% | 10.5% | 43.4% | 49.6% | ||||||||
| Jon Gray (RHP, COL) | 7-9 | 3.93 | 4.09 | 4.30 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 36.6% | 30.9% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Kyle Gibson (RHP, PHI) | 8-5 | 3.18 | 4.32 | 4.60 | 3.87 | 19.6% | 9.3% | 38.6% | 29.0% | ||||||||
| BP GAME* (RHP, SD) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Logan Webb (RHP, SF) | 7-3 | 2.92 | 2.90 | 3.28 | 3.48 | 26.1% | 7.2% | 36.7% | 17.5% | ||||||||
| Frankie Montas (RHP, OAK) | 9-9 | 4.04 | 3.66 | 3.75 | 4.10 | 26.3% | 6.8% | 43.8% | 35.6% |
| W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | |||||||||
| Marcus Stroman (RHP, NYM) | 8-12 | 2.84 | 3.59 | 3.94 | 4.36 | 21.7% | 5.8% | 42.5% | 27.3% | ||||||||
| David Price (LHP, LAD) | 4-1 | 3.62 | 4.08 | 4.06 | 3.85 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 35.3% | 28.2% |
| Little League Classic Williamsport, PA | W/L | ERA | xFIP | SIERA | xERA | K% | BB% | HH% | FB% | ||||||||
| José Suarez (LHP, LAA) | 5-6 | 3.88 | 4.13 | 4.21 | 4.07 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 34.5% | 30.9% | ||||||||
| Cal Quantrill (RHP, CLE) | 3-2 | 3.24 | 4.51 | 4.60 | 4.45 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 35.4% | 31.1% |
STOLEN BASE TARGETS
If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!
So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY!
