MLB Weekly Preview: August 15 – 21

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: DET shifts to 3 L / 4 R.

NOTES: We are cooking with bacon this week! Twenty of the 30 MLB teams will play seven games, while no team draws the short end of the stick, so all of our hitters will have a minimum of six games. My beloved Mets stand alone with a week-high eight games on the docket thanks to a doubleheader at Philadelphia on 8/20. We’ll discuss more about them later in our targets. All in all, there are only two doubleheaders scheduled; the other is Detroit at Cleveland on 8/15. If the weather is good and this stands, not only will our hitters have at-bats galore, but we won’t have to deal with anyone sitting the first/second game of a doubleheader. This is a welcome relief after ABs came at a premium last week. Lots of divisional battles, so our hitters will be on their A-game. Let’s go!

A Few Areas to Target

King of New York
Of the eight games Mets play this week, some of the matchups are challenging. However, they will face at least six right-handed starters with a possible seventh. Max Fried is on the seven-day concussion injured list but is eligible for activation on 8/15. If ready, he could add a lefty arm against New York. Otherwise, we should expect him back in the Houston series. Either way, Daniel Vogelbach (7% rostered in redraft, 46% dynasty) and Tyler Naquin (10%, 56%) are very streamable on the strong side of platoons. Vogelbach has a 1.020 OPS since joining New York, a majority of which has come against right-handers. His ‘Milkshake’ blasts all the balls in the yard, and damn right, he’s better than your… other options. Naquin has shown pop as well, and I would add both in leagues of 12 teams or greater.

Additionally, don’t forget to jam Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo into your lineups!

OO7
Braves are home for seven games and are facing seven right-handed starters. That’s a combination even James Bond would approve of, and we should be set to deploy those left-handed bats. Matt Olson is raging with homers in three consecutive ballgames, and the good times will roll into this week. Eddie Rosario (43%, 55%) should see the bulk of left field and has a .286/.375/.500 slash line over the last seven days, including three two-baggers. Finally, if Michael Harris (63%, 79%) is available in your league or has been stashed on your bench, this would be a great week to deploy him. His seven-day slash line: .286/.348/.571, 4 XBH. Furthermore, he has a .913 OPS versus righties along with four multi-hit games in August. 

Philadelphia Freedom
Phillies (@CIN – 3, NYM – 4) don’t have an ideal schedule for our hitters. Still, a trip to homer-friendly Great American Ball Park (151 Statcast HR Park Factor) and seven games in total spell success. They’ll also benefit from a day off before their NL East tilt as well as avoiding Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Since returning from the IL on 8/4, Jean Segura is tearing it up with two multi-hit games, a long fly and a .308/.357/.538 slash line. Streaming-wise, rookie Darick Hall (5%, 38%) is doing his best Bryce Harper impersonation, and nobody in the Phillies lineup has been hotter than fellow rookie Bryson Stott (5%, 49%). Stott has an outrageous .474/.524/.579 slash line over the past week and hits in eight of his last ten games. The key to the city starting shortstop position has been bestowed with Didi Gregorius out of town.

I Left My Heart in San Francisco
Giants hitters have a seven-game week with four against Arizona and a three-game series at Coors Field. The opposing starters present good matchups for the most part, minus Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, and the bullpens are exploitable (ARI – 4.11 ERA, ninth-worst; COL – 4.74 ERA, second-worst). Joc Pederson (55%, 79%) is the most tantalizing option with San Fran seeing five right-handed starters. In 260 plate appearances against righties this year, Pederson has 15 home runs, 27 extra-base hits and a decent .254 average. This sets up for a nice streak! Monitor Joc’s health… seems to be alright but likely to sit first game of the week (vs. MadBum, would have sat anyway) with expectation for Tuesday start and then five RHPs in a row before Freeland on 8/21.

Target, Target
We usually don’t highlight six-game weeks here, but I will make an exception for the Twins. Minnesota faces two weak-ass teams at home (KC – 3, TEX – 3). While they have hit better on the road, Twins still rank just outside of the top-10 in most major statistics in the split. Furthermore, dig this motley crew of opposing starters:

• Kris Bubic
• Zack Greinke
• Daniel Lynch
• Martín Pérez
• Glenn Otto
• Cole Ragans

If you are paying attention, that’s four southpaws of the six games. This sets up extremely well for Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and our pick-up last week, Jose Miranda (now up to 41%, 87%), who is still raking.

Take Advantage of Bad Offenses in Good Situations
KC provides streaming opportunities this week (@MIN – 3, @TB – 4). They face a mixed bag of starters, but only Shane McClanahan is in our top-30 SP. The Italian Nightmare is still an appealing option despite the three lefty starters he’ll face (including Ryan Yarbrough following an opener). He has held his own vs. LHP in the small sample. In addition, I would also stream fellow lefty, Nicky Lopez (7%, 41%), if desperate for steals. He has great position eligibility. Take advantage of the favorable schedule while it’s here, because other weeks may not be so voluminous, “and we’ll never be (on) Royals.”

O Canada
While playing at home presents certain advantages for Toronto (BAL – 3, @NYY – 4), our focus here is the visitors. Or, more appropriately, the “non-visitors.” Players who are not vaccinated can’t travel to Toronto and will be placed on the restricted list, which is often announced the morning of the first game. For the Orioles, we have no worries; their 40-man roster is vaccinated. 

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IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2022 Statistics

*As of 8/13/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
Now five months into using a humidor at every park, we are seeing a larger majority of stadiums hovering around the mean. So I guess mission accomplished? Warmer months are having an effect too, and I still think northern teams shouldn’t use humidors until June.

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TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Sandy Alcantara¹ (SD, @LAD)
2. Gerrit Cole⁵ (TB, TOR)
3. Shohei Ohtani⁶ (SEA, @DET)
4. Joe Musgrove⁹ (@MIA, WSH) ⬅️Oddly seems like a rare two-step for Musgrove, and what a sweet one at that!
5. Julio Urías¹¹ (@MIL, MIA) ⬅️Ryan Pepiot¹³⁰ (@MIL, MIA) not only stays in LAD’s rotation as the sixth man, but he leaps ahead of Urias, sending the latter into next week.
6. Dylan Cease¹² (HOU, @CLE)
7. Alek Manoah¹³ (BAL, @NYY)
8. Luis Castillo¹⁸ (@LAA, @OAK)
9. Charlie Morton³⁰ (NYM, HOU)
10. Brandon Woodruff³¹ (LAD, @CHC)
11. Nestor Cortes³⁶ (TB, TOR)
12. Carlos Carrasco^IL (@ATL, @PHI) ⬅️ See tweet below in IL report.
13. Taijuan Walker^DTD (@ATL, @PHI) ⬅️ Will not make second start but should be back as soon as 8/23
14. Spencer Strider⁴¹ (NYM, HOU)
15. Marcus Stroman⁴² (@WSH, MIL)
16. Sean Manaea⁵⁰ (@MIA, WSH)
17. Merrill Kelly⁵¹ (@SF, STL)

*Ohtani takes a second trip on 8/21! If Ohtani is to be considered in the Cy Young vote, it benefits his case to make more starts.

Other Options: Johnny Cueto⁵⁴ (HOU, @CLE), Alex Cobb⁶¹ (ARI, @COL), José Urquidy⁶² (@CHW, @ATL), Joe Ryan⁶⁴ (KC, TEX), Nick Pivetta⁶⁵ (@PIT, @BAL), Freddy Peralta⁷¹ (LAD, @CHC)

*Peralta is still building up on the fly with the big club. That and a first tough assignment keeps him off the main list.

Danger Zone: Josiah Gray⁷² (CHC, @SD), Zack Greinke⁸³ & Kris Bubic¹³⁹ (@MIN, @TB), Jeffrey Springs⁸⁴ (@NYY, KC), Noah Syndergaard⁸⁷ (@CIN, NYM), Jakob Junis⁸⁸ (ARI, @COL), James Kaprielian⁹² (@TEX, SEA), Madison Bumgarner⁹⁹ (@SF, STL), Aaron Civale¹⁰³ (DET, CHW), Kyle Freeland¹¹¹ (@STL, SF), Yusei Kikuchi¹²⁵ (BAL, @NYY), Kyle Bradish¹³⁷ & Dean Kremer^NR (@TOR, BOS), Glenn Otto¹³⁸ & Kohei Arihara^NR (OAK, @MIN), Ryan Yarbrough¹⁴⁰ (@NYY, KC), Mike Minor¹⁴¹ (PHI, @PIT), Patrick Corbin^NR (CHC, @SD)

*Gray has been scuffling, and even the easier of his two starts marks the second consecutive start vs. CHC. Thor faces the old club, but before we get nostalgic and lock him in our lineups, be aware the velocity is recently down, just like where his strikeouts have been all year long. Also, will he make the second trip? NOPE. Kyle Gibson⁸⁰ (@CIN, NYM) will start on normal rest (8/21) with Philly keeping to the plan LAA had for Syndergaard. UPDATE: Mitch White¹²⁷ WILL be replacing Kikuchi in rotation for the @NYY start. Also, as of 8/19, TB pushes rotation a day (specifically Shane McClanahan & Drew Rasmussen) with a spot start for Luis Patiño (sent back to Triple-A after start). As a result, Springs loses second start.

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STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUGUST 15 – 21

UPDATE: Atlanta’s Fried (NYM) & Wright (HOU) will flip assignments based on their recoveries.

Dakota Hudson’s next turn in the rotation will be the second game in Arizona. #stlcards are plugging him back in after Mikolas once he’s had a couple bullpens sorting through some of his issues vs. LH

— Jeff Jones (@jmjones) August 16, 2022

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MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Mike Trout – 10-day IL, Back Spasms, Left Rib Cage Irritation
Let’s start with a Trout update. He took a major step in his recovery on 8/13, as he took BP for the first time since landing on the IL. Trout took two rounds and will progress to facing live pitching when ready. He expects to be back “sooner than later.”

Ronald Acuña Jr. – DTD, Right Knee Soreness
Acuña exited in the seventh inning of the second leg of the Braves doubleheader against Miami on 8/13. After winning Game 1 and holding a lead in Game 2, the move seems precautionary, and many think it was just a move to get him off of the turf of loanDepot Park. However, after expecting to play in the last game of the series, he was once again on the bench to start the game.

Sad news for Michael Brantley and those who roster him… Brantley will miss the rest of the season after undergoing arthroscopic labral repair on his right shoulder. 

Kyle Schwarber – DTD, Mild Right Calf Strain
Schwarbs missed the starting lineup card on 8/12 & 8/13 but pinch-hit in the latter contest late in the game. However, after popping out, he did not take the field. He was also out of the lineup in the series finale, which tells me he is not quite ready to run on the grass yet. Matt Vierling continues to get playing time in Schwarber’s stead until he is 100%.

Eduardo Escobar – 10-day IL, Left Oblique (8/17)
New York lost two players in a matter of minutes on 8/12 when Escobar left the game due to a side injury and Jeff McNeil suffered a cut on his right thumb, which required stitches. While McNeil was back the next day, Escobar remains out of the lineup as of 8/14 since he’s still feeling soreness. MRI and ultrasound imaging was positive, as both did not show any major injury. Escobar was also seen on the field, taking drills before the second and third games of the series. With the Mets seeing a bevy of right-handed starters, they have the luxury of resting Escobar so that he avoids an IL stint. He had already been losing playing time to Luis Guillorme when facing RHP.

Update: Escobar came into the game on 8/14 when Guillorme left due to left groin tightness. The latter will now miss 4-6 weeks with his IL placement. Plus, this just in…

After finishing the 2nd inning, Carlos Carrasco appeared to grab his side and go to the clubhouse.

Carrasco initially came back out following a 55-minute rain delay in Atlanta. pic.twitter.com/LdWlKpk5HQ

— SNY (@SNYtv) August 16, 2022

Luis Robert – DTD, Sprained Left Wrist
Robert exited his game on 8/12 with a left wrist sprain and did not see the starting lineup the rest of the series in an attempt to avoid the IL. X-rays were negative, but he is still at risk of missing further time. No word if he’s available off the bench.

Ryan Mountcastle – DTD, Left Hand Injury
Mountcastle was out of the lineup on 8/14 due to this recently surfacing ailment. After being hit by a pitch on the left hand in his last at-bat the night before, the 24-year-old is experiencing soreness and swelling. Consider this a day off before the busy week ahead.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Mitch Keller^DTD, RH PIT (BOS, CIN; 6% rostered in redraft, 59% dynasty) – We have been fooled by Keller before. However, he’s been resembling the fine prospect we once knew him to be. Over his last six starts, he’s given up 0/1 runs in four of them. Oh, and in the other two games, he gave up three runs. He doesn’t miss bats (18.8% K rate, 25.0% CSW), but he has been getting outs thanks to a 50.0% GB rate (28.8% FB). Also, a 4.03 xFIP and .323 BABIP indicate further positive regression is in store for him. The Sox have been ice-cold but still may scare you like a wounded animal. However, with Cincy also on the docket, I’m here for this two-stepper.

UPDATE: Keller was removed from his start against the Red Sox after two innings due to right shoulder fatigue. He will miss his second start but should avoid IL. He is now scheduled to start on 8/24 vs. ATL.

Honorable Mentions: José Quintana⁷⁵, LH STL (COL, @ARI; 34%, 71%), JP Sears^NR, LH OAK (@TEX, SEA; <1%, 22%), Justin Steele^NR, LH CHC (@WSH, MIL; 10%, 54%) – Steele has been a solid streamer for us this year and has paid off handsomely in the last two starts.

Solo Start: Dustin May⁶⁹, RH LAD (MIA; 24%, 77%) – May has been confirmed to return from a long, arduous road through the IL. He makes his first appearance since 5/1/2021 when he faces the Marlins on 8/20 (according to May’s agent, Craig Rose). This stream is a keeper. Thanks, Captain Obvious… but I felt it needs stating for clarity. He will be making his final rehab the day of this publication, so this start is contingent on how he feels afterward. You may be reluctant to start someone who has been out so long, but May has elite stuff, has been brought along very slowly and smartly, and won’t be overly limited. “Take your shot, Funboy. You got me dead bang!” 

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, August 21, 2022
*Not Confirmed

MLB Little League Classic in Williamsport, PA