In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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Welcome to the 2023 MLB Season!
We are the few, we are the proud. We are fantasy baseball managers! I mean no disrespect to our brave men and women of the Marines with this comparison. Without their service, we fat slobs could not enjoy the freedoms we have today. And in these times, freedom is not free.
Although, fantasy baseball is indeed a grind of the mind. Who will be diligent enough to maintain a steadfast pace throughout 162? That is always the question year after year. We have had our fair share of “extracurricular activities” in the past few seasons, creating further hurdles to attain our prize. None of you made them an excuse. Do me a solid? If you won your league (or multiple leagues) last season, raise your arm. Are you doing it? Great, that’s a fair amount of raised arms out there! Keep them raised. Now, if you finished second or third in your league, raise your arm on up too. Shoot, some of you in the back are gonna have to stand on your chair, so I can see! Ok, I can’t really “see” you right now, but then again, I can. Just look at these testimonials!
We aren’t free of challenges for the 2023 season. MLB is instituting new rules to improve pace of play, action and safety. If you have been watching Spring Training games, you are already familiar with the limitations on shifting and disengagements, pitch clock and bigger bases. If not, I broke down the new rules and their potential effect on your fantasy baseball players. Still, these are mere educated theories – based on minor-league experimentation, small sample sizes and Statcast projective data – until the games start counting. Additionally, we have a new balanced schedule, creating many more novel matchups to analyze. And if you remember, the new CBA limits minor-league options to five per season, which benefits playing statuses of younger players. Furthermore, the ghost-runner rule (aka “Manfred Man”) for extra innings is now a permanent fixture for all regular-season games. We will need to be versatile, catching all of the edges.
One angle to the new balanced schedule is a hopeful one I’ve yet to examine. Beginning in 2023, teams will play five fewer games against division opponents (14, seven home/seven away), instead playing one series against every team in the other league. Clubs will continue to play their Interleague “rival” four times, twice at each ballpark. Divisional games will total 56. The other ten teams in their respective league will be opposed six times apiece (60 games), playing a three-game set at each ballpark. Also, rather than 16 Interleague games, teams will play 46 such games – four against their rival and three each against the other 14 teams, alternating ballparks annually.
All I hear for fantasy is this: teams will face each other less. While fewer matchups will give us less data to go by, there is a higher hidden benefit.
Have you ever had a Sunday game washed away due to rain that would have given you the head-to-head victory? Better yet, did a PPD throw a monkey wrench in your monthly pitching plans? That should happen fewer times this year. MLB will do everything in its power to either get the game in that day or make up the game in question while the two teams are in town. Could the game be made up during a mutual day off later in the season? Sure, but it will be more challenging now for the schedule makers. Also, with the new rules making games shorter, getting games in that day will be more feasible. If I’m correct, and I believe I am, this will make our lives a crap-ton easier. Yes, crap-ton; it’s a scientific term.
I began this introduction with the word proud. I am so proud of this subscriber base, and after reading the influx of activity in our Discord from new subscribers and long-timers alike, the good times will continue to roll here at Fantasy Guru! My pledge is to give my best every day to provide the tools for victory. Alright, here we go. . .
As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover, drop a line in our 24/7 MLB Discord chat or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.
MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
UPDATE: LAA SHIFTS TO 1 L / 5 R DUE TO RAY NEWS (SEE IL REPORT) / TBR SHIFT TO 3 L / 3 R W/ KEN WALDICHUK MOVED UP ON NORMAL REST
NOTES: We are seeing an unexpected effect of a balanced schedule, with many teams having even home/away splits this week. Park Factors will be that much more important in identifying positive or negative park shifts this week. Most teams play an average six games, while only four teams play every day this week. No worries, we have all the edges below!
A Few Areas to Target
If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!
Bird Watching
Toronto (@KCR – 4, @LAA – 3) plays seven games this week, but they are all on the road. We’ll cover Kauffman Stadium more in Places to Avoid, but the important factor is the park played up better to hitters in 2022. Additionally, Angel Stadium has the fourth-highest overall Statcast Park Factor from last season. This includes a 108 for runs, 103 for OBP & hits and 120 for homers, which was also the fourth-highest mark in 2022. Bottom line, this road trip represents positive park shifts for the Jays! In addition, the team will face four lefties to three righties. George Springer and Bo Bichette should eat this week. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can do some damage despite faring better against RHP in his career (.295 BA vs. RHP – 1661 PA, .250 vs. LHP – 506 PA). Also, both C Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen* could get run together with the DH.
*Jansen Roster Percentages: Yahoo: 28%, ESPN: 28%, Fantrax Dynasty: 65%
Hotlanta Tune-up
Atlanta (@STL – 3, SD – 4) is another team with seven games this week. The venues are a major bummer when looking at Park Factors, but that’s not stopping me from deploying Matt Olson and Michael Harris II. The Braves have a 2 L / 5 R proj. starter split this week. Olson has creamed RHP to the tune of a .254/.350/.520 career slash line with a wOBA of .365, .266 ISO and 135 wRC+. Meanwhile, Harris’ same stats against RHP from his rookie year are .321/.362/.576, .402, .255 and 160! ? If you are looking for streaming options, look no further than Eddie Rosario (Yahoo: 2%, ESPN: 2%, Fantrax Dynasty: 26%) and his left side of the platoon. His stats vs. RHP are decent, too (.270/.307/.487, .332, .217, 108 wRC+).
The Teal Monster
With many teams playing six games this week, we need to dig deeper for edges. Enter the Florida Miami Marlins. Of their six contests, they will see six right-hand starters. This sets up extremely well for lefty bats Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Joey Wendle (Yahoo: 3%, ESPN: 5%, Fantrax Dynasty: 34%). The latter is stream-worthy this week, or at least, it’s a good time for him to cover those positions and avoid zeroes (eligible at 2B, 3B and SS in most leagues). Wendle has a .280/.325/.419 career slash line against RHP with a wOBA of .319 and 106 wRC+. As for Arraez, over the last 50 years, only three players have a higher BA against RHP (min. 1,000 PA): Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew and Wade Boggs. ?
Rocky Mountain High
The Rockies (@LAD – 2, WSH – 4) have awesome pitching matchups and four home games out of six. The only exception is Julio Urías, but the rest are fairly tasty.
- Michael Grove, LAD (RHP, Rank: 135)
- Urías, LAD (LHP, Rank: 9)
- Josiah Gray, WSH (RHP, Rank: 84)
- MacKenzie Gore, WSH (LHP, Rank: 108)
- Trevor Williams, WSH (RHP, Rank: NR)
- Chad Kuhl, WSH (RHP, Rank: NR)
Quick Hitters…
Dodgers (COL – 2, @ARI – 4) see five RHP in six games.
Twins (@MIA – 3, HOU – 3) see five RHP in six games.
Giants (@CHW – 3, KCR – 3) see five RHP in six games.
Cubs (@CIN – 3, TEX – 3) see five RHP in six games.
Athletics (CLE – 3, @TBR – 3) see five RHP in six games: While this is a feather in the cap of Tony Kemp, Seth Brown and even Jace Peterson, the Guardians did rank sixth in team ERA with 3.47, and the Rays placed fourth with a 3.41 ERA in 2022. But this is a new year. I’m starting Shea Langeliers and Esteury Ruiz with confidence, even if they drag down my BA a bit this week. Both the Guardians and Rays ranked in the top eight in BAA last season. However, the only real names to fear this week are Shane Bieber and Jeffrey Springs, to an extent.
If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
Possibly stream some Nats bats with seven games (four at Coors Field, 4 L / 3 R) OR Buccos bats with six games (all six vs. RHP) – Oneil Cruz for sure, but look at Carlos Santana (Yahoo: 3%, ESPN: 20%, Fantrax Dynasty: 37%). We already know he stands to benefit from shift limitations. A deep flier is Canaan Smith-Njigba (Yahoo: 0%, ESPN: 0%, Fantrax Dynasty: 8%). Coming off an outstanding spring, where he slashed .333/.407/.583 with three homers and 14 RBI across 48 ABs, Smith-Njigba will get a look as a primary outfielder in Pittsburgh to start the season.
Places to Avoid
While Kansas City (TOR – 4, @SFG – 3) has many young players to like, such as Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey, I’d steer clear despite a seven-game week. Toronto will be firing Cy Young contenders Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah along with bounce-back candidate José Berríos. Meanwhile, San Fran has quality arms Alex Cobb and Ross Stripling on their docket. And to make matters worse, the Royals also play all of next week’s games in home-run deplete venues per 2022 statistics (Kauffman Stadium – 78 Statcast HR Park Factor, Oracle Park: 81 HRPF). Although, the overall Statcast Park Factor for their home ballpark did rank fifth last season (Oracle was 17th). So there is some hope if you have no choice.
One would think Melendez, Massey and the Italian Nightmare would make for fine starts with a 2 L / 5 R proj. split. Yet, the only thing that has been a nightmare for Vinnie P. is his spring. He batted .217/.280/.348 with 1 HR in 23 ABs for KCR, while he went 4-for-17 for Team Italy at the WBC. All of this, coupled with the opposing pitchers, has me placing him on my bench. Massey – a fringe guy to begin with – does have a bright future with a nice power/speed combo. However, he hit just four homers with three steals alongside a .683 OPS across 52 games with the Royals last season. Wet behind the ears, he is, and pitchers like Gausman, Berríos, Cobb and Stripling will eat him alive! Finally, if you wanna start Melendez after his torrid spring, I don’t hate it; just temper expectations.
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
2022 Statistics
*As of 10/5/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- George Kirby22 (LAA, @CLE)
- Charlie Morton28 (@STL, SDP)
- Nestor Cortes34 (PHI, @BAL)
- Freddy Peralta39 (NYM, STL)
- Brady Singer41 (TOR, @SF) ⬅️ Singer shows up higher in these ranks than the overall rankings due to a lack of spring work from the WBC. He’s still building up, coming off poor results in the tournament, and has challenging matchups this week. He calls for a start in most leagues, but if slots or starts are short, feel free to skip this one. There will be brighter days ahead.
- Tyler Mahle46 (@MIA, HOU)
- José Berríos49 (@KCR, @LAA)
- Drew Rasmussen50 (@WSH, OAK)
- Reid Detmers58 (@SEA, TOR)
- Carlos Carrasco59 (@MIL, MIA)
- Hunter Brown62 (DET, @MIN)
- Kyle Bradish66 (@TEX,
NYY) ⬅️ Picks up two-start week with BAL moving him ahead of Tyler Wells134. UPDATE: Bradish took a comebacker off his off his right leg/foot and exited after only 1+ innings @TEX. Wells came on in relief and fired five shutout innings. X-rays were negative, but contusion will leave him out of the mix for second start, giving Wells back his property. Kyle Gibson moves up on regular rest for 4/4 start. Also, BAL plans to call up Grayson Rodriguez to start on 4/5, which indicates Wells will throw on 4/9. Therefore, Bradish taking a few starts off on the IL to allow bruise to heal. - Domingo Germán68 (PHI,
@BAL) ⬅️ Change of plans with Josh Donaldson hitting the IL, affording the opportunity to recall Jhony Brito earlier. - Taijuan Walker71 (@NYY, CIN)
- Jon Gray73 (BAL, @CHC)
Other Options: Sean Manaea74 (@CHW, KCR)*, Michael Kopech82 (SFG, @PIT), Roansy Contreras86 (@BOS, CHW), Drew Smyly89 (@CIN, TEX) POV SPECIAL HM, Johnny Cueto114 (MIN, @NYM), Ryne Nelson115 (@SDP, LAD), Kutter Crawford132 (PIT, @DET)
*Anthony DeSclafaniNR will start on 4/3 with Manaea probable to piggyback the 32-year-old right hander. It’s unclear if this will continue or if SFG will go to a six-man. Do we expect Gabe Kapler to be transparent? Hells no! Tony Disco fired six innings to Manaea’s two on 4/3 @CHW. UPDATE: DeSclafani and Manaea will spilt an each start a game on 4/8 & 4/9, skipping Ross Stripling’s turn.
Danger Zone: Yusei Kikuchi133 (@KCR, @LAA), Michael Grove135 (COL, @ARI), Zach Plesac144 (@OAK, SEA), Dylan DoddNR (@STL, SDP) Link Momento in notes?, Matthew BoydNR (@HOU, BOS), James KaprielianNR (CLE, @TBR), Jake WoodfordNR (ATL, @MIL), Connor OvertonNR (CHC, @PHI), Kris BubicNR (TOR, @SF), Trevor WilliamsNR & Chad KuhlNR (TBR, @COL), Ryan FeltnerNR (@LAD, WSH)
*Most aces were in action during Opening Week, so we see a lower-ranking list of two-start pitchers than normal. One start will have to suffice for your top arms, and don’t reach for a two-start! Additionally, I don’t give a flying fuck how great Kikuchi’s spring was. He still had ten walks in 18 IP and is trash.
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 3 – 9
Remove Robbie Ray from the rankings (see IL Report) – Stroman will now face TEX at home due to 4/5 PPD (see Meghan Montemurro’s tweet below).
GAME OF THE WEEK: Minnesota Twins @ Miami Marlins, 4/5
Pablo López vs. Jesús Luzardo #RevengeGame
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
This just in…
ÁLVAREZ SZN!!!
Mariners pitcher Robbie Ray has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a left flexor strain. This news comes on the heels of a struggling 2023 debut on 3/31 (3.1 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 4 BB 3 K). As a result, Chris Flexen should take Ray’s place for the time being, although Seattle has not made a formal announcement.
Willson Contreras, Cardinals – DTD, Right Knee Contusion
X-rays and an MRI were both negative for structural damage to Contreras’ right knee. He had to leave his Cardinals debut in the top of the eighth inning on Opening Day when he took a 102.7 mph sinker from reliever Jordan Hicks off the shin guard on his right knee. Contreras did not start in Game 2, as he shakes it off. Meanwhile, new teammate Lars Nootbaar was out of the lineup and unavailable to play on 4/1 because of a jammed left thumb.
Yankee Updates…
Harrison Bader (left oblique strain) swung in a pool on 3/31 and could begin swinging in a cage and throwing within the week, according to Yankees manager Aaron Boone… After resuming light throwing on 3/31 with no issues, Luis Severino (right lat strain) tossed again on 4/1… Carlos Rodón (mild left elbow strain) threw 30 pitches in a bullpen session and said he felt comfortable. He’ll stay in Tampa and advance to throwing live batting practice.
Justin Verlander, Mets – 15-day IL, Low Grade Teres Major Strain (Retro 3/28)
Verlander will continue to throw at “moderate intensity” and be re-evaluated in a week. As a result, Tylor Megill will take Verlander’s rotation spot. UPDATE: Megill’s velo on 4/1 was down 2-3 mph on average, although he continued to tough it out through five innings and 93 pitches. You could blame it on early season scenarios (i.e., not fully stretched out, cold weather), but the latter was not the case in Miami with the roof closed. Keep tabs on his health status.
Yordan Alvarez, Astros – Healthy-ish, Left Hand
The Astros are not planning to play Alvarez every day at the start of the season. He only played in two Spring Training games this year due to a nagging left-hand injury that bothered him last season.
Max Fried, Braves – DTD/IL Bound, Left Hamstring Strain
Fried departed his Opening Day start against the Nationals due to a left hamstring strain sustained while covering first base in the fourth inning. Manager Brian Snitker said Fried is likely to go on the injured list but, at the very least, will “definitely” miss his next scheduled start. Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder are options to fill in, and Fried would be eligible on 4/11 if placed on the IL.
Seiya Suzuki, Cubs – 10-day IL, Strained Left Oblique (Retro 3/27)
Suzuki has started to play defense in Minor League games for the Cubs, building up his endurance before starting to face live pitching.
Luis Urías, Brewers – 10-day IL, Left Hamstring Strain (Retro 3/31)
The 25-year-old infielder suffered the injury late in Milwaukee’s season opener. Urías reportedly “felt a pop” in his left hamstring while dogging out a ninth-inning groundout. His MRI revealed a “solid” strain, and he’ll miss 6-8 weeks as a result. General manager Matt Arnold said they will fill the loss from within and purchased the contract of Joey Wiemer (MLB Pipeline’s No. 90 Overall Prospect / MIL’s No. 4) from Triple-A Nashville to add another righty bat. Brian Anderson, Mike Brosseau and Owen Miller could pick up reps at the hot corner.
Liam Hendriks Update…
Hendriks, who is battling non-Hodgkin lymphoma, is making good progress and was not placed on the 60-day IL to start the season. Additionally, White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said a more specific timeline for Hendriks’ return should come in April.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Hayden Wesneski64, RH CHC (@CIN; 56% owned in Yahoo, 11% in ESPN, 85% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Full disclosure, I don’t like any low-rostered two-start pitcher. As I wrote, we have a lower-ranking list of two-start pitchers than normal. I will take my advice and not reach for a two-step. So, one start will have to suffice, and it’s a good one! This start will be Wesneski’s 2023 debut, and he’s coming off a stellar 2022. The 25-year-old righty had a 2.18 ERA (3.64 xFIP, 3.32 SIERA, 2.18 xERA), 0.94 WHIP (1.48 ABA), and a 4.71 K/BB mark across 33 innings during his rookie 2022 season. Furthermore, he followed that with a 2.12 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 31.4 K% over 17 frames this Spring Training.
Honorable Mention: Roansy Contreras86, RH PIT (@BOS, CHW; 25% owned in Yahoo, 7% in ESPN, 78% in Fantrax Dynasty), Drew Smyly89, LH CHC (@CIN, TEX; 2% owned in Yahoo, 1% in ESPN, 28% in Fantrax Dynasty) – In a surprsie move, PIT will opt to throw Johan OviedoNR on 4/3, giving him the two-start week. While I’ll still start Contreras is deeper leagues, he loses much of his juice, only going against a Boston offense who just became the third team since 1901 to score as many as nine runs in the first three games of a season (‘76 Reds and ‘78 Brewers). However, in leagues of 12 teams and under, I would sit Contreras.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!
