MLB Weekly Preview: August 2 – 8

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams (including Interleague play), two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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In memory of John Cannella Sr.

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: We now enter the dog days of the season. The MLB Trade Deadline has come and gone. It was wild as expected since this was the first season with the hard deadline and new rule eliminating deals via waivers. Our fantasy players have been scattered all over the place. Plans we had in place and teammates we chose to roster are now broken. Player’s roles have changed, for better or for worse. This is the time to lock in and focus. Distractions abound, but we have the tools to continue the journey we have worked so hard on for four months. Fourteen teams are scheduled for seven or more games this week, with three teams drawing five. Let’s pay attention to new matchups. Traded players are with their new teams by now. Let’s get it!!!

A Few Areas to Target

Welcome to the Bronx, Mr. Gallo & Mr. Rizzo…
Seven games, all in Yankee Stadium against BAL (3) & SEA (4) pitching… This makes for an excellent welcoming party for Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. The only bummer is four of the combined scheduled pitchers are left-handed, but Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and a tepid Gleyber Torres will handle their business. Rizzo is already making himself at home with homers in two of his first three games with New York along with five hits in nine at-bats. The good times should roll with this laundry list of starters:

• Jorge López
• Alexander Wells
• Matt Harvey
• Tyler Anderson
• Marco Gonzales
• Chris Flexen
• Yusei Kikuchi

Anthony Rizzo has 14 HR this season

If all of his 2021 batted balls over 300 ft had been hit at Yankee Stadium? He'd have 23 HR

Unsurprisingly, like with Joey Gallo, that's the most of any single ballpark

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 29, 2021

Welcome Back, Kotter!
Those of you who were born in the ‘90s or later will have zero clue about this reference. “Up your nose with a rubber hose!” Boston has seven games this week in six days with a Saturday twin bill scheduled. Besides the small handicap, all seven are on the road, and four of the seven (including doubleheader) will play north of the border. Comerica Park has the 10^th highest home run ballpark factor (1.09) and the third-highest run factor. Additionally, Rogers Centre held the highest HR factor in 2019 (1.32), the last time games were played in Toronto prior to 7/30. Runs were league-average with 1.03.

This is good news for the Blue Jays, who play a week-leading eight games in their home-home. Toronto is also scheduled to face as many as seven right-handed starting pitchers plus a tandem game for Cleveland. Despite being a heavy righty-laden lineup, the Blue Birds rank second in ISO (.197), first in wOBA (.340) and second in wRC+ versus RHP. This is the week managers who invested in the Blue Jays offense will point to when they win their championships. 

Hot Rod
Rowdy Tellez has been scorching of late, hitting .448 with four home runs, a pair of doubles, 10 rib-eye steaks and eight runs scored. If you are familiar with his case history, he goes on these tears from time to time, and it’s wise to maximize while you can. Playing time could be an issue, but with mild matchups against Pittsburgh and the “lighter” end of the San Fran rotation, Craig Counsell would be wise to employ Tellez, especially with all RHP scheduled for the lefty to feast upon. The Brew Crew will be home all week, as well. Ever since the change to American Family Field from Miller Park, park factors have been middle-of-the-pack. Despite the PG flavor, this is still a hitter’s park in my estimation. 

Be a Vulture
Washington and the Chicago Cubs both had fire sales at the deadline, trading away their most valuable (and rostered) assets. Regarding the latter, the North Siders begin the week in Coors Field before hosting their crosstown rivals (more on that in Interleague Outlook). This all presents an opportunity for daily-league managers (or even weekly) to use the Cubs’ new starters as streaming options, especially in Denver. Rafael Ortega has four home runs in the last two ball games at <10% ownership. Ian Happ (57%) has been manning the three-hole, creating more ABs and prime RBI opportunities. Patrick Wisdom (49%) hits behind Happ in the clean-up spot and now has regular playing time. He’s shown great pop with a .321 ISO and .594 SLG along with reverse splits favoring right-handed pitching (.282 BA, .967 OPS, .404 wOBA, .355 ISO).

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WEEKLY INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

With the lack of a universal DH in 2021, American League teams will once again lose their designated hitter when traveling to National League parks. And that’s a lot of “NOES” up there! For Kansas City, we no longer have to be concerned with Jorge Soler losing at-bats due to games in NL parks with him now in Atlanta (only with Braves’ lineup configuration). O’Hearn should easily slide to the bench in the Show-Me Series, which has been livelier in years’ past but always a series I look forward to watching. 

As of this writing, Jiménez, who was activated from the 60-day IL on 7/26 to make his season debut after having a ruptured left pectoral tendon derail his season, has sat out four straight games due to a groin issue. Only three games back, and already, our stud fantasy stash is back out again (at least we got a 2-for-4 and a longball). If the injury persists or the prognosis worsens, this decision is easy for the ChiSox. But either way, hard to imagine Eloy playing the field next weekend. If he should, Vaughn or Gavin Sheets would lose ABs, although Sheets’ lefty bat could keep him in the lineup against all right-handed Cubs. After the trade deadline, the Cubbies’ roster more closely resembles the Iowa Cubs. This creates wiggle room for the Pale Hose in the Crosstown Classic.

Rookie Rooker – say that three times real fast – has been scalding since his callup to replace a legend in Nelson Cruz, including homers in three of four games and an OPS north of 1.250. Don’t think they call up their ^#17-ranked prospect to ride the pine, although possible for two games. My take is Max Kepler will slide to center to keep Rooker’s bat in the lineup at right field and thus relegate Cave to the bench. Minnesota is scheduled to face two right-handers in Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo for the two-game set, making Luis Arraez in play, as well.

Dodgers trek into this week as one of the teams with only five games on the docket thanks to two interleague series. Besides the always entertaining Freeway Series that’s bound to be a “sho-down,” the Dodgers host their good friends, the Houston Astros. LA will look to flex their own personal fantasy team of starting pitchers, and to lump on the woes for the Halos and the Stros, they will be minus Alvarez and Ohtani’s bat for the most part. With only a definite four full games and a start scheduled for 8/2 @TEX, I recommend starting Ohtani as a pitcher where eligible in weekly lock lineups as well as in the first half of bi-weekly leagues. Business as usual for daily leagues.

The lone DH benefactor this week is the Padres, albeit for only two of their mere five games (A’s are the third team with five games due to series with each other). The recent addition of Adam Frazier allows for both Myers and Pham to be in the lineup. Jurickson Profar is also another option for additional at-bats. However, with just five games, all make for murky plays in weekly leagues.

*Rivalry Series: Show-Me, Crosstown Classic, Freeway

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TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Gerrit Cole⁵ (BAL, SEA) ← Placed on COVID-19 IL after testing positive; while out at least 10 days, Nestor Cortes will fill in the rotation.
2. Zack Wheeler¹⁰ (@WSH, NYM)
3. Robbie Ray¹⁸ (CLE, BOS)
4. Anthony DeSclafani²² (@ARI, @MIL)
5. Lance McCullers Jr.²⁸ (@LAD, MIN)
6. Hyun Jin Ryu³⁰ (CLE, BOS)
7. Tyler Mahle³² (MIN, PIT)
8. Kenta Maeda⁴⁰ (@CIN, @HOU)
9. Dylan Cease⁴⁵ (KC, @CHC)
10. Yusei Kikuchi⁴⁷ (@TB, @NYY)
11. Johnny Cueto⁵¹ (@ARI, @MIL)
12. Zach Plesac⁵⁶ (@TOR, DET)
13. Tylor Megill⁶³ (@MIA, @PHI)
14. Taijuan Walker⁶⁶ (@MIA, @PHI)
15. Andrew Heaney⁶⁹ (BAL, SEA)

Other Options: Max Fried⁷⁰ (@STL, WSH), Josiah Gray⁹¹ (PHI, @ATL), Patrick Corbin¹⁰⁰ (PHI, @ATL), Chris Flexen¹⁰² (@TB, @NYY), Dane Dunning¹⁰⁸ (LAA, @OAK), Madison Bumgarner¹⁰⁹ (SF, @SD), Michael Wacha¹¹⁹ (SEA, @BAL), Ranger Suárez¹²⁶ (@WSH, NYM)*

*Suárez is shifting to the starting rotation as of 8/2. I like his potential to rise up the ranks once he builds up to a normal starter’s workload (whatever the hell that means these days!). At this point, he’ll only throw 3-4 innings in each start.

Danger Zone: Kris Bubic¹³⁷ (@CHW, @STL), Wily Peralta¹⁴⁵ (BOS, @CLE), Jordan Lyles^NR (LAA, @OAK), Kyle Freeland^NR (CHC, MIA), Jorge López^NR (@NYY, TB), Garrett Richards^NR (@DET, @TOR), Taylor Widener^NR (SF, @SD), Zach Davies^NR (@COL, CHW), Bryse Wilson^NR (@MIL, @CIN)*

*Newly acquired Bryse Wilson enters PIT pitching rotation on 8/2 to make it a six-man. With seven games on tap, he gets the two-start.

For a detailed breakdown of two-start pitchers who may be available on your waiver wire, check out Vlad’s FAAB Values!

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STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR AUGUST 2 – 8

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MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (left shoulder) slid hard into third base in the first inning on 7/30 and was forced to exit the contest extremely early. He was in a lot of pain as trainers assisted the young 22-year-old off the field. Particularly concerning, considering all the time he missed earlier this season and effort he’s put forward to avoid re-injury. After further testing, Tatis did indeed partially dislocate his left shoulder again. However, according to manager Jayce Tingler, Tatis’ range of motion and strength are “much better,” Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports. Nonetheless, San Diego places Tatis on the 10-day injured list due to the shoulder inflammation resulting from the injury. He’ll eventually require surgery on the shoulder, but we’ll get a better estimation of his absence in the coming days.

Ian Anderson (shoulder) is set to begin a rehab assignment soon after throwing some side sessions, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. Fellow Brave hurler Huascar Ynoa is also making progress and is scheduled to make his next rehab assignment on 8/1. Each pitcher’s timeline for a return to the bigs should be mapped out this week.

Going the opposite direction, James Kaprielian (shoulder impingement) hit the 10-day IL on 7/31 after struggling against San Diego (who doesn’t?). The team does not consider the injury serious and is hopeful the 27-year-old will miss only one start. Daulton Jefferies (A’s No. 3 ranked prospect) will be looking to “Wally Pipp” Kaprielian and was recalled to fill in the rotation. 

Tony Gonsolin (right shoulder inflammation) equaled the futility of his first start of the season with only 1.2 IP, and now we know why. As it turns out, he has been feeling shoulder discomfort from time to time over his past few starts. LA is gonna let him rest on the 10-day IL with a short week upcoming and newly acquired Max Scherzer to flaunt. While it’s unknown at this time how much time Tony G. will miss, he’ll be eligible to come back for 8/10 @PHI. 

Clayton Kershaw (forearm) was set to return 8/7 vs. LAA after he threw a sim game on 8/1, but Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reported he is feeling “some residual soreness” and did not participate in the simulation. Instead, he played catch at Chase Field. Kersh has been reinserted in the above rankings, but this is certainly a situation to continue to monitor.

Just when Domingo Germán was getting on a roll, the 28-year-old Yankee pitcher is experiencing right shoulder inflammation and will take a trip to the IL. He was yanked in the fifth inning on 7/31, which at the time appeared to be a pure pitch-hitting situation in a National League park, but is now realized to be more. No timetable until more tests can be completed. Adding to the melee, both DJ LeMahieu (triceps strain) and Gio Urshela (hamstring tightness) remained out of the Yankees’ lineup on 8/1 in Miami. Urshela did pinch-hit on 7/31. 

In a report by Jeff Passan of ESPN, Tyler Glasnow (elbow) will likely require Tommy John surgery, although there is still a possibility of rehabbing the injury without going under the knife. Glasnow recently threw off a mound and was still optimistic for a 2021 return, but this news all but rules this out. If surgery is elected, his 2022 would be in serious jeopardy. This news makes him an obvious drop in redraft leagues for those who were stashing him. Furthermore, keeper league owners will need to evaluate their situations and keep tabs on what the doctors and Glasnow decide to do.

The hits keep on coming for our mound mavens^©. Chris Paddack (strained left oblique) was placed on the 10-day IL 7/31 (retro to 7/28), making him eligible to return on 8/6. Unlike Kershaw, I did not include him in the ranks since obliques can be tricky, and he is due for a rest after pitching 93 innings and taking the ball every week since the beginning of the season. Paddack pitched 59 innings in 2020, 140.2 in his rookie season of 2019, and threw a high of 90 innings just once in three minor-league seasons. Get him right for a strong finish.

©Ray Flowers

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Braxton Garrett^NR, LH MIA (NYM, @COL; 25% owned) – Pending recall, Garrett would set up for a two-start week, coming off the heels of his 10 K performance vs. SD. Coors Field start is somewhat troubling, but if you are thinking this far deep, you are obviously up for taking on risk for a potentially handsome reward. Garrett last pitched for Triple-A Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (man, I love that name) on 7/29 with some mixed results – 3.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. Note: The call up could be Jesús Luzardo (LH / ~70% owned) instead. If so, I’m slightly less interested despite the higher pedigree. Luzardo hasn’t been right with pitch selection and location all season, and since he broke his hand playing video games, it’s become appreciatively worse at any level.

Honorable Mention: None

Solo Start: Luis Patiño⁹⁶, RH TB (SEA; 61% owned) – We’ve heard about Patiño’s upside for a long time, and we saw it in action his last time out in a major way. Patiño struck out eight Yankees and allowed three hits in six innings. Furthermore, his lone start this week comes on a Tuesday. So if in a daily league, you can opt to stream the same roster spot later in the week… that is if you don’t wanna hold on for the ride.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Vlad’s FAAB Values!

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, August 8, 2021

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Michael Wacha (RHP, TB)	2-3		5.26		4.17		4.25		5.71		21.4%		6.8%		42.4%		35.1%
Jorge López (RHP, BAL)	3-12		5.91		4.54		4.72		5.24		20.2%		10.3%		43.2%		29.2%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, SEA)	7-6		3.89		3.43		3.77		4.28		26.3%		8.2%		44.1%		29.5%
Luis Gil* (RHP, NYY)	3-0		5.64		5.41		—		—		27.7%		16.8%		—		50.0%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Taijuan Walker (RHP, NYM)	7-6		3.86		4.31		4.40		4.40		23.2%		9.2%		39.0%		37.8%
Zack Wheeler (RHP, PHI)	9-6		2.57		2.81		3.17		2.62		29.1%		5.6%		29.1%		26.9%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Garrett Richards (RHP, BOS)	6-7		5.21		4.85		4.99		6.17		17.6%		9.8%		49.9%		31.4%
Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP, TOR)	11-5		3.22		3.90		4.10		3.99		20.4%		5.0%		39.9%		33.2%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Wily Peralta (RHP, DET)	3-2		3.47		4.97		5.22		4.94		14.1%		9.4%		40.0%		30.6%
Zach Plesac (RHP, CLE)	6-4		4.64		4.76		4.73		4.37		14.8%		4.5%		40.6%		36.9%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Bryse Wilson (RHP, PIT)	2-4		4.42		5.34		5.48		4.87		13.5%		8.2%		37.6%		37.5%
Tyler Mahle* (RHP, CIN)	8-3		3.86		3.88		3.85		3.74		27.9%		9.1%		35.2%		37.7%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Patrick Corbin (LHP, WSH)	6-10		5.74		4.46		4.71		5.75		17.8%		7.5%		40.3%		31.7%
Max Fried (LHP, ATL)	8-7		4.05		3.77		3.99		4.19		24.3%		8.0%		34.9%		30.0%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Kenta Maeda (RHP, MIN)	4-4		4.65		3.81		3.87		3.85		25.5%		7.0%		37.6%		36.2%
Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP, HOU)	9-2		3.02		3.72		4.01		3.14		28.2%		11.6%		41.3%		29.5%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Johnny Cueto (RHP, SF)	7-6		3.83		3.93		4.16		4.77		21.5%		5.6%		38.1%		34.7%
Brett Anderson (LHP, MIL)	4-5		3.67		4.05		4.42		6.09		14.2%		6.6%		47.6%		20.2%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Kris Bubic (LHP, KC)	3-5		4.57		4.70		4.85		5.52		19.8%		11.3%		41.3%		32.9%
Jon Lester (LHP, STL)	3-6		5.38		5.11		5.25		5.10		15.0%		8.5%		39.4%		34.9%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
TBD* (MIA)	—		—		—		—		—		—		—		—		—
Kyle Freeland (LHP, COL)	2-6		4.46		4.54		4.63		4.52		18.0%		6.7%		38.4%		34.8%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Jordan Lyles (RHP, TEX)	5-8		5.25		5.01		4.86		5.31		18.5%		7.5%		41.7%		43.3%
James Kaprielian (RHP, OAK)	5-4		3.24		4.32		4.05		3.85		26.5%		9.1%		43.7%		46.0%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Reid Detmers* (LHP, LAA)	2-4		3.50		2.41		—		—		43.1%		8.0%		—		46.7%
Walker Buehler (RHP, LAD)	11-2		2.16		3.64		3.69		3.02		26.3%		6.2%		37.0%		38.2%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Madison Bumgarner (LHP, ARI)	6-6		4.57		4.78		4.38		4.37		21.7%		5.9%		39.8%		47.1%
Blake Snell (LHP, SD)	5-4		5.24		4.22		4.60		5.67		27.2%		14.2%		39.8%		32.6%

	W/L		ERA		xFIP		SIERA		xERA		K%		BB%		HH%		FB%
Dylan Cease (RHP, CHW)	8-6		3.92		3.85		3.68		3.74		30.2%		9.3%		35.5%		42.3%
Zach Davies (RHP, CHC)	6-8		4.79		5.24		5.58		5.90		15.8%		12.0%		43.0%		32.3%

STOLEN BASE TARGETS

If you have been paying attention to the new rule changes for minor league baseball, you can see the commissioner’s office desires a return of a long-lost element to the game… the stolen base. Let’s get ahead of the curve while also maximizing on the few pilferers of the dirt in 2021. Jack Kitchen (@JAXvicious), a long-time sub, reached out this offseason, asking if I could add a section on stolen base targets. As I have said from Day One of this column, your wish is my command!

So, I have imported one of the many fine tools we offer on our sister site, Elite Fantasy. Along with stolen base targets, our DFS MLB package offers daily articles and livestreams, a 24/7 chat, ownership projections and Fantasy Cruncher optimizer, BvP data, batter splits, park factors, umpire factors, weather reports and cheat sheets. The data alone is worth well over $1200! These weapons of mass destruction aid fantasy success in all formats, DFS and seasonal. JOIN TODAY!