In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
NOTES: Did you peep the game breakdown grid??? Due to the volume of games and moving parts, this week is tough to discern, but I’m confident I did a good job. If you thought last week was busy for our hitters, get a load of this week! Whew, MLB is cramming games into the schedule before the All-Star break. A whopping 18 teams play seven games this week, while none are stuck with a five-gamer. But we aren’t complaining! Although, with quite a few doubleheaders for teams still making up lockout games, some guys may take a breather. Something to keep in mind when comparing plays. Speaking of doubleheaders, they provide a monstrous eight-game week for two lucky clubs. Let’s discuss, shall we?
A Few Areas to Target
HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY!!! 🎇
Great American Small Park
The Reds have an eight-game week thanks to their doubleheader with the Pirates on their shared off-day (7/7). Adding to the melee, all eight (NYM – 3, PIT – 2, TB – 3) will go down at Great American Ball Park! According to Statcast park factors, the Reds’ home ball field still holds the lead in overall factors over Coors Field (see below). Furthermore, the HR factor has leapt to a season-high 158 as the weather gets warmer and warmer. Joey Votto (50-65% rostered in redraft, 82% dynasty) has been added and dropped more times than followers on his Instagram. He’s a desirable target this week with six of the eight opposing starters being right-handed. Furthermore, dating back to 5/20, Votto has slashed .270/.373/.525 with five homers in 142 plate appearances.
Also, a hitting boost goes to the Mets, Rays and the young crew of swashbucklers for at least one day of pillaging.
Detroit Rock City
Detroit Tigers are the other team who plays eight games this week, with a July 4th doubleheader with Cleveland. However, unlike KISS, the Tigers do not have a Starchild who’s ready for primetime just yet. Although, Riley Greene (27%, 91%) stands out as a top candidate to break out. He is scheduled to face seven righties to one lefty, and the matchups are not overly daunting. And when the team travels to Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago (101 PF, 124 HR), they will enjoy a positive park shift. Even Progressive Field in Cleveland plays better to the hitter this year than Comerica Park.
Home of the Brave
Keeping this one simple… Atlanta plays seven games at home this week (STL – 4, WSH – 3), where they enjoy their home cooking. Braves possess the 10th-highest home batting average, fifth-highest OPS & wOBA, and third-highest ISO. Plus, for the most part, the pitching matchups look tasty 😋
- Dakota Hudson
- Andre Pallante
- Miles Mikolas
- Matthew Liberatore
- Erick Fedde
- Patrick Corbin
- Paolo Espino
Don’t Tread On Me
Boston is home for seven games this week (TB – 3, NYY – 4). The voluminous schedule at Fenway Park enhances a powerful lineup, especially when considering the park carries the third-highest overall park factor (108) and is in the red below in virtually every category (oddly, HR is neutral). The lone blue is in strikeouts, so we good! They’ll see an even mix of lefties and righties, so any streaming options are best left for daily leagues where you can play RvL (Bobby Dalbec – 8%, 47% / Rob Refsnyder – <1%, 6%) & LvR (Jarren Duran – 12%, 74% / Franchy Cordero – 1%, 12%) matchups.
America the Beautiful
The aforementioned swashbucklers have an odd schedule this week with that rando doubleheader with Cincinnati plus a two-game Interleague matchup with the Yankees (more on that later). But as my pappi once told me, don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Pittsburgh’s seven-game schedule offers a five-game positive park shift: Great American Ball Park (2 G) & American Family Field (3 G; 116 Statcast HR park factor). This will aid a young lineup that is dependent on the long ball. For those deep leaguers, may I suggest taking a flier on Dan Vogelbach (2%, 22%) and/or Jack Suwinski (5%, 36%)? The Buccos will face four (possibly five) right-handed starters this week. In 164 plate appearances against righties this year, Vogelbach has clubbed 10 HR with a .255 batting average. Suwinski has hit just .233, but he’s launched seven long-balls in 129 plate appearances against righties.
Italian Nightmare
Well, this last subtitle has little to do with Independence Day or the states, but I’m Italian, so bite me! When a legend dubs you the “Italian Nightmare,” as the great George Brett did for Royals rookie Vinnie Pasquantino (10%, 63%), I pay attention. The lefty slugger was hitting .280 with 18 homers this season at Omaha, and he was among the Triple-A leaders in extra-base hits (XBH), runs, homers and slugging percentage. Now, he’s up with the big club, who plays seven games this week and all against right-handed starters. Vinnie P posted a 1.011 OPS against righties in Omaha (166 AB) with 12 of his 18 long balls and 29 total XBH.
On the other hand, he was not facing the likes of Justin Verlander, Luis Garcia or Cristian Javier down on the farm. But with Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac and a potentially returning Jake Odorizzi also on the docket, this would be the week to bust out the shiny new toy.
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
2022 Statistics
*Updated 7/2/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Sandy Alcantara3 (LAA, @NYM)
- Alek Manoah5 (@OAK, @SEA)
- Justin Verlander6 (KC,
@OAK) ⬅️See below - Max Scherzer10 (@CIN,
MIA) ⬅️With Chris Bassitt28 returning from the CVD-IL on 7/8 & a desire to ease Max into the rotation, Scherzer will be pushed to 7/11 @ATL. - Carlos Rodón14 (@ARI, @SD)
- Kyle Wright19 (STL, WSH)
- Julio Urías21 (COL, CHC)
- Nick Pivetta31 (TB, NYY)
- Eric Lauer46 (CHC, PIT)
- Michael Kopech55 (MIN, DET) ⬅️Possibility remains that CHW pushes his second start to manage innings
- Jameson Taillon60 (@PIT, @BOS) ⬅️See Pitching Spotlight for more!
- Taijuan Walker62 (@CIN, MIA)
Other Option: Johnny Cueto63 (MIN, DET)
*Wise to be more selective this week in your choice(s) of two-steppers.
Danger Zone: Kyle HendricksIL & Justin Steele148 (@MIL, @LAD), José Quintana79 (NYY, @MIL), Ranger Suárez86 (WSH, @STL)IL, Alex Wood88 (@ARI, @SD), Zack Greinke93 & Jonathan HeasleyNR (@HOU, CLE), Germán Márquez95 & Kyle FreelandNR (@LAD, @ARI), Andre Pallante108 & Dakota Hudson133 (@ATL, PHI), Ian Anderson106 (STL, WSH), Hunter Greene118 & Nick Lodolo129 (NYM, TB), Dylan Bundy119 (@CHW, @TEX), Cole Irvin121 (TOR, HOU), Jake Odorizzi124 (KC, @OAK), Dean Kremer128 (TEX, LAA), Chris Flexen131 (@SD, TOR), Madison Bumgarner133 (SF, COL), Patrick Corbin139 (MIA, @ATL), Paolo EspinoNR (@PHI, @ATL), Braxton GarrettNR (@WSH, @NYM)
*I was considering Lodolo for a streaming honorable mention, but we have to beware of starting an IL-returning guy (assuming he finally does return). UPDATE: Cristopher SanchezNR will sub in for Ranger Suárez, who hits the IL with lower back spasms.
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JULY 4 – 10
Michael Wacha has been scratched for his start on July 4th due to a dead arm; next start is TBD.
Tony Gonsolin will now face CHC as a result of Ryan Pepiot making a spot start on 7/5 to give rotation rest.
Pitching Spotlight
After beginning his big-league career with the Pirates, Jameson Taillon returns to Pittsburgh on 7/5. This marks both his first trip back to where it all began as well as his first time facing his old club. Gotta figure it will be a special day for the 30-year-old – maybe not Freddie Freeman special, but special enough. Taillon began with such great promise in 2016 before the Pirates’ awful coaching staff scourged their 2010 first-round pick (second overall). In 18 GS (104 IP), Taillon posted a 3.38 ERA, 5.00 K/BB and a sweet 1.92 GB/FB ratio. In the following season (25 GS, 133.2 IP), his ERA rose to 4.44, the K/BB plummeted to 2.72, and the GB/FB ratio followed suit (1.71).
Maybe you can chalk this up to growing pains or a sophomore slump, as Taillon posted numbers closer to his rookie year (3.20 ERA, 3.89 K/BB) in 2018. However, the fly balls continued to rise, while the ground balls dried up. Then, the shit hit the fan in 2019 as the numbers rose again before Taillon succumbed to Tommy John surgery for the second time in his pro career.
The Yankees took a shot on the once prestigious prospect despite the risks coming from a two-time recipient of the knife. It was a bumpy first year in New York, where he posted a 4.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP (not bad), 40.2% hard-hit rate, 0.69 GB/FB ratio and 3.18 K/BB (29 GS, 144.1 IP). Yet, the expected numbers pointed to brighter days (i.e. 3.89 xERA). So far in 2022 (15 GS, 84 IP), the pedigree and expectations have come to fruition. Taillon sports a 3.32 ERA (3.26 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 3.79 SIERA, 3.77 xERA). His 1.15 WHIP is closer to his early Pirate days. Taillon has lowered the HH rate to 35.2%. The GB/FB is back above one (1.13). Most notably, his K/BB is currently a career-high 6.27!
Plus, Taillon has done all of this with a .305 BABIP against (.272 in 2021). It has been a nice performance in 2022, and signs point towards even more good times. Will they begin against Pittsburgh in an all-too-familiar setting? Survey says, yes! Plus, Taillon is a two-start pitcher this week. The second assignment is far tougher (@BOS), however, Taillon owns a 2.04 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and two wins against the Red Sox in his career (3 GS, all in 2021).
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Kevin Gausman – DTD, Right Ankle Contusion
Gausman exited his start against the Rays in the second inning after taking Wander Franco’s hard comebacker off his right ankle. He was down for several minutes in pain before popping up to his feet with a noticeable limp. However, X-rays came back negative, and Gausman was diagnosed with a right ankle contusion, the Blue Jays announced.
Chris Taylor – DTD, Left Foot Contusion
Originally thought to have hurt himself on a dive trying to prevent a double, it was later revealed that Taylor hurt his foot on a foul ball off his bat. After leaving the game, X-rays revealed negative results. However, we can expect Taylor to be out of the lineup on 7/3. His teammate, Mookie Betts, will be in the lineup on 7/3 after missing 15 games with a right rib fracture. However, he will play right field, not second base, which was originally planned.
Liam Hendriks – 15-day IL, Right Forearm Strain
Hendriks is on track to be activated on July 4th. The right-hander threw a simulated game on 7/1 in San Francisco, pitching to five batters on 18 pitches. Hendriks said he threw all of his pitches and everything felt good.
Spencer Torkelson – DTD, Head
Torkelson tested negative for a concussion after being hit in the helmet by a pitch on 7/1. He was out of the lineup the following day but came off the bench for two at-bats, so he should be fine moving forward.
Anthony DeSclafani – 15-day IL, Right Ankle Inflammation (AGAIN!)
DeSclafani landed back on the IL with right ankle inflammation (retro 6/27), and manager Gabe Kapler said “there’s real concern” given the lingering discomfort in the ankle. The Giants are still evaluating their next steps, but Kapler said “everything is on the table,” including surgery.
Luis Patiño Update – Patiño’s fifth rehab start for Durham was limited to three innings on 7/2 due to a middle finger blister, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Mitch White104, RH LAD (COL, CHC; 2% rostered in redraft, 26% dynasty) – With Andrew Heaney back on the IL, White is going to see some time in the starting rotation. In 34.1 innings, he has a 3.93 ERA to go along with a 3.93 xFIP (3.85 FIP), 3.83 SIERA and a 3.85 xERA. I wrote about why I like consistent true-outcome pitchers last week at the bottom of the article. He’s league-average in both strikeout and walk rates but doesn’t give up much hard contact and nets a good amount of ground balls (40.8%).
White has been hurt by the slider this year. It was a pretty dominant pitch last season (30.5% CSW, 57.1% GB rate), but he should cut down on the usage a touch, which is up 11% this season. With a proper pitch mix, White can (and should) dominate these matchups. They are two teams who can lay wood on the baseball but much less effectively on the road. UPDATE: Ryan Pepiot will start on 7/5 to give the rest of the rotation an extra day, according to Jack Harris of the LA Times.
Honorable Mentions: Zach Plesac90, RH CLE (@DET, @KC; 53%, 80%), Dane Dunning111, RH TEX (@BAL, MIN; 8%, 67%), Yusei KikuchiIL, LH TOR (@OAK, @SEA; 36%, 61%) – For Kikuchi, it’s all about the matchups. I know he can give us heart palpitations, but these teams rank poorly vs. LHP.
Ranks vs. LHP | K% | ISO | wOBA |
OAK | 22.1% (15th) | .124 (26th) | .280 (28th) |
SEA | 23.3% (22nd) | .146 (17th) | .307 (21st) |
Solo Start: Pick from the selection above for individual starts, or…
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!