MLB Weekly Preview: June 27 – July 3

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

Scroll right to the part of the MLB Weekly Preview you need in just one click!
Below, you will find an interactive table of contents. Simply click on the section of the article you wanna read and boom.. presto… alakazam. Check back daily for updates!!!

As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover in an adjoining article, drop a line in Discord or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

UPDATE: Angels shift to 1 L / 5 R due to Astros shuffling their rotation. Also, PIT goes to 1 L / 6 R since Woodruff will now return 6/28 and qualify for a second start on 7/3.

NOTES: With the all-star break and mid-way point of the season approaching, we see our team’s hitter schedules voluminous for some teams while sparse for others this week. Three teams have an eight-game week, as we will discuss in our target areas, and only six teams play seven games. The majority of teams (17) have a standard six-game schedule. Meanwhile, the Tigers, Mets, Giants and Diamondbacks draw the short end of the stick with five-game weeks.

A Few Areas to Target

Eight Pack of Twinkies
Minnesota plays eight games this week thanks to a five-game series with the Guardians beginning the period (doubleheader on 6/28). Furthermore, they will face seven right-handed starters to one lefty, which makes Luis Arráez a point of emphasis. 

The left-handed professional hitter is in a prime spot this week and will bring his mighty .385/.467/.964 slash line vs. RHP to the plate. Arráez is doing things this season we haven’t seen since the peak of Ichiro Suzuki! Lo and behold, the former MVP and long-time murderer of baseballs recently said Arráez is “his favorite left-handed hitter in the game today,” and with good reason. The Twins infielder is 60% better than the average hitter, owning a 160 OPS+. The only other time in history we saw above 130 was in 2004 (Ichiro). Overall, Arráez has topped the likes of Pete Alonso (157 OPS+), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (145) and Giancarlo Stanton (142), even though just 13 of his 78 hits (16.7 X/H%) have gone for extra bases, including four home runs (another similarity to Ichiro). As a result, he leads the Majors in batting average. 

Lastly, Minnesota is a great streaming source due to the voluminous schedule and favorable pitching matchups this week: Alex Kirilloff (25% rostered in redraft, 81% dynasty), Max Kepler (70%, 82%), Gio Urshela (22%, 65%) and Jose Miranda (2%, 56%). 

Guardians of the Galaxy AL Central
The aforementioned Guardians will also play eight games this week, all in the comforts of Progressive Field, which is middle-of-the-pack when it comes to Statcast Park Factors (see below). Josh Naylor and Oscar Gonzalez are two players to add in most leagues for an extra boost. I’m still playing Andrés Giménez despite a schedule of three left-handed starting pitchers. He has upped his batting average to .310 against the same handedness along with a .330 wOBA and 116 wRC+. Plus, Giménez will still get five RH starting pitchers. 

Dodger Blue Tears
In case you missed it, it was an emotional return to Atlanta for Freddie Freeman this past weekend. However, with seven games this week, Freeman is set to “rebound” with his next fling. Along with the volume of games, the Dodgers face some tasty pitchers in Chad Kuhl, Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez and a struggling Blake Snell. Furthermore, LA will play three games at Coors Field along with four at home against San Diego. Dodger Stadium has been playing up, according to Statcast Park Factors, particularly for home runs (126). Additionally, after the Rockies host LA, they’ll stay at home to face the D’backs for a six-game week. The home digs make your Rockies hitters viable despite the average workload this week.

Brendan Rodgers (54%, 90%) has been hot and could face up to four left-handed starters! In case Rodgers is long gone in your league, may I suggest streaming Connor Joe (61%, 85%) or Randal Grichuk (49%, 74%)? The prior is batting .385 over the last seven days, while the latter is prime for a return to form.

Yankee Pride
Despite being no-hit over the weekend, here is a news flash… the Yankees are a good baseball team. They’ll have the opportunity to rebound with seven games on the docket against a mixed-bag of pitching matchups, including six right-handed starters:

• Paul Blackburn (fool’s gold)
• Frankie Montas (ok, he’s good)
• Cole Irvin
• Luis Garcia
• Aaron Civale
• Triston McKenzie
• Zach Plesac

Fire up Anthony Rizzo as usual for a potentially huge week, but 1-7 are in play!

O Canada
Blue Jays are home for eight games this week (BOS – 3, TB – 5) with a doubleheader on 7/2. Some tough matchups are present with Shane McClanahan and Nick Pivetta, but we aren’t worried! The offense is stacked and capable of blasting any hurler who takes the mound. In addition, counting stat accumulation in an eight-game week alleviates any matchup concerns. If looking to stream, Santiago Espinal (42%, 73%) and Gabriel Moreno (9%, 63%) are more than viable, while Cavan Biggio (6%, 47%) may garner more playing time thanks to his lefty bat (Blue Jays could face up to six RHP). 

While being home all week presents massive advantages for Toronto, our focus here are the visitors. Or, more appropriately, the “non-visitors.” Players who are not vaccinated can’t travel to Toronto and will be placed on the restricted list, which is often announced the morning of first game. For Boston, we already know Tanner Houck’s status, and now Jarren Duran will be another player who will stay back in Boston.

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2022 Statistics

*Updated 6/26/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Kevin Gausman⁵ (BOS, TB)
2. Pablo López¹⁰ (@STL, @WSH)
3. Zack Wheeler¹¹ (ATL, STL)
4. Frankie Montas¹⁴ (@NYY, @SEA)
5. Tarik Skubal²² (@SF, KC) ⬅️ Skubal could pick up a second start with Alex Faedo sent down to Triple-A (Faedo could return as 27th man on 7/4 DH, but Michael Pineda occupies his spot with his return.)
6. Robbie Ray²³ (BAL, OAK)
7. Zac Gallen²⁵ (SD, @COL) ⬅️ Gallen is likely to pick up a second start with Zach Davies hitting the IL.
8. Luis Castillo²⁹ (@CHC, ATL)
9. Clayton Kershaw³⁰ (@COL, SD)
10. Framber Valdez³⁴ (@NYM, LAA) ⬅️ Astros shuffle their rotation, moving up Valdez & Justin Verlander while pushing Luis Garcia to 6/30.
11. Jordan Montgomery³⁶ (OAK, @CLE)
12. Jameson Taillon³⁸ (OAK, @CLE) ⬅️ JP Sears makes a spot start on 6/28, giving the rest of the Yanks’ staff an extra day of rest.
13. Brandon Woodruff⁴⁰ (@TB, @PIT) ⬅️ Eric Lauer & Woodruff swap spots since the latter will now return a day early on 6/28
14. Lucas Giolito⁴¹ (@LAA, @SF)
15. Charlie Morton⁴² (@PHI, @CIN)

Other Options: Triston McKenzie⁴³ (MIN, NYY), Paul Blackburn⁴⁵ (@NYY, @SEA), Tyler Anderson⁴⁶ (@COL, SD), Sonny Gray⁵³ (@CLE, BAL), Adam Wainwright⁶⁴ (MIA, @PHI), Shane Baz⁶⁸ (MIL, @TOR?), José Quintana⁸³ (@WSH, MIL), Martín Pérez⁸⁴ & Jon Gray⁹⁶ (@KC, @NYM), Tyler Wells⁸³ (@SEA, @MIN) UPDATE: With Max Scherzer^IL no longer an option for 7/3 and after Carlos Carrasco’s back checked out fine after his first start, Carrasco could wind up picking up a second start vs. TEX.

*”Cy Quintana” misses out on second start this week with Zach Thompson¹⁴⁴ returning from the injured list on 7/3 for the start.

Danger Zone: Ross Stripling¹³⁸ (BOS, TB), Chad Kuhl¹⁵⁰ (LAD, ARI), Devin Smeltzer^NR (@CLE, BAL), Kris Bubic^NR (TEX, @DET)

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JUNE 27 – JULY 3

*See update in Top Two-Start Pitchers on Luis Garcia/Framber Valdez & Brandon Woodruff/Eric Lauer
NYY pushes staff back, making Taillon a solo start vs. OAK, pushing Severino to @HOU, while Cole gets an upgrade to @CLE.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Bryce Harper – 10-day IL (likely), Fractured Left Thumb
Harper’s left thumb was fractured when he was hit by a 97 mph fastball from Padres left-hander Blake Snell over the weekend. He was down in pain for some time and jumped up yelling at Snell in disgust. While currently day-to-day, an injured list designation is imminent for the battered 29-year-old DH. He’s likely to miss many weeks. 

Wander Franco – ACTIVATED, Quadriceps
After going 2-for-4 with two singles, an RBI and a run scored while serving as the DH for Triple-A Durham on Friday, Franco returned from the IL on 6/26 and started at shortstop. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported his activation was expected, and indeed, Wander is back in our lives after missing just under a month with his left quad strain. 

Garrett Whitlock – 15-day IL, Hip Discomfort
Whitlock threw a sim game on 6/21 along with playing catch on 6/25. However, the lack of a BP session tipped off what was later announced by Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. Whitlock won’t be activated during the Toronto trip but has an outside chance of returning for the Cubs series in Chicago as a setback is not in play. More likely, this is a way to manage his innings and overall workload this year (his previous career-high in IP is 73.1; already at 48.2). Teammate Chris Sale (stress fracture, right rib cage) made his second Minor League rehab start on 6/25 in the Florida Complex League, throwing 2 2/3 scoreless innings, giving up three hits, and striking out six on 36 pitches. The next step for the left-hander will be a rehab outing with Double-A Portland this week.

Aroldis Chapman – 15-day IL, Left Achilles Tendinitis
Chapman began a rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset on 6/24 (1 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 K, eight pitches/five strikes). He is expected to throw again on 6/26, as Meredith Marakovits of YES Network reported Chapman had no issues in the outing. He remains on track to return to the Yankees before the end of the month, and manager Aaron Boone said he plans to deploy Chapman in the ninth inning once he’s activated off the injured list.

Ty France – 10-day IL, Left Flexor Strain (Retro 6/24)
France sustained the injury on a collision at first base during the week against Oakland and was later diagnosed with a Grade 2 flexor strain. France was already feeling better a day later and will avoid surgery; just rest and rehab. As a result, Dylan Moore could see added ABs, with Kevin Padlo a more direct benefactor. Evan White will not be an option after he halted his rehab assignment and is receiving treatment for his hip.  

Andrew Heaney – 15-day IL, Left Shoulder Inflammation (Retro 6/21)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… Heaney hits the IL with a shoulder issue. It marks the second time this season the left-hander has been on the IL with left shoulder issues. Manager Dave Roberts is playing down the issue as usual, saying Heaney should not miss two months like last time and is hopeful he’ll miss just a few starts. We shall see…

Sal Perez – 10-day IL, Left Thumb UCL
Perez underwent successful surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb, the club announced on 6/24. He had missed time earlier this season after spraining the thumb but returned and played regularly for about a month before aggravating the injury last week. He is expected to return to the lineup sometime this season.

Jorge Polanco – 10-day IL, Lower Back Tightness
Polanco was scheduled to participate in some baseball activities before the series opener against the Rockies at Target Field. The hope is that he’ll be back in the lineup sometime during next week’s series against Cleveland.

Jonathan India Update – Still DTD and absent from lineup on 6/26
India was hit by a pitch on the right hand against the Giants on 6/25. X-rays came back negative, and manager David Bell did not rule out India’s return for the series finale on 6/26 (lineup not out at publication. Also, Tyler Stephenson is approaching a rehab assignment, according to Bell, which could begin in the next week to 10 days. 

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ George Kirby⁶⁵, RH SEA (BAL, OAK; 28% rostered in redraft, 81% dynasty)

Honorable Mentions: Keegan Thompson⁸⁹, RH CHC (CIN, BOS; 36%, 58%)

Balls of Steel Play: Erick Fedde^NR, RH WSH (PIT, MIA; 2%, 32%)

Solo Start: Spencer Strider⁶⁰, RH ATL (@CIN; 47%, 79%), Mitch Keller⁹⁰, RH PIT (@WSH; 3%, 46%)

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, July 3, 2022
*Not Confirmed

{Wrote this earlier this week. Figure I’ll leave it here in case some people missed it. Mr. Wheeler qualifies!} The 2021 ROY runner-up, Luis Garcia, is a desirable piece in the fantasy game. Garcia possesses great strikeout upside, starting to go deeper in games, plus an above-average ERA. But what makes him desirable to me is the consistency we see from the young man, both on the field and here in Statcast land. A lot of times, we read player stats and favor those that are larger in number (i.e. Vlad Jr.’s 48 HR last year) or lower in number (i.e. Burnes’ 2.43 ERA), but when we look at expected stats, our point of view skews a bit, and it’s all about comparison.

Similar favoritism remains true, but it’s all about comparing the ERA to what is expected. With xFIP, we “only consider the events that are directly in the control of the pitcher (K, BB, HR, HBP). However, the pitcher’s personal home run rate is replaced with the league average mark. SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) operates within the same world as FIP and xFIP in that it attempts to report on a pitcher’s performance based on the events that are in his control. SIERA takes this line of thought even further as it attempts to ascertain why some hurlers are more effective than others… (it’s) park adjusted for ballpark and defense while focusing on walk/strikeout/ground ball rates. It is slightly more predictive than measures like FIP.”

And xERA is simply that, expected ERA, but it takes into account Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) and converts it to the ERA scale. Here we’re talking about the amount of contact vs. strikeouts, walks and hit by pitch, as well as the quality of that contact (exit velocity and launch angle) and other factors like ballpark, weather, or defense.

For more on these measures and others, visit here.

So, back to Luis Garcia. You see his 3.68 ERA and are like, “aight, not bad but could be better.” And that’s true. But what I like is how his xFIP is right there at 3.70, as is the xERA at 3.64. And then we see his 3.57 SIERA in the same ballpark but even lower due to his proclivity of the strikeout (SIERA correlates well with CSW% – Called Strikes + Whiff rate). This is what I call a “true-outcome pitcher.” They are less inclined to the blowups – I’m looking at you, José Berríos – and will give you consistent fantasy performances despite the level of matchup.

As you may have noticed from my rankings as well as where I italicize stats here in this section for emphasis (positive or negative), I’ll favor pitchers like Garcia over guys who carry a lower ERA at the time. That is where the view is askew. For example, Tony Gonsolin, despite pitching brilliantly to the tune of a sparkling 1.58 ERA, carries a 3.79 xFIP, 3.80 SIERA & 2.87 xERA. Fine numbers, no doubt, but less true outcome here, which makes me believe there is a blow-up in store down the road… I hope this was helpful for those who are newer to fantasy baseball!