MLB Weekly Preview: June 6 – 12

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: Last week set up for an offensive explosion with the way the schedule was laid out. This week, with several interleague series causing two- and three-game sets, we are gonna need to be attentive and creative with our lineups. While only two teams play a short five-game week – Tigers and Cubs, so we aren’t upset about it – a vast majority of teams play a basic six games. Furthermore, no team plays more than seven this week, and as it were, there are only eight teams who play seven games. We discuss several of them below.

However, before we do, I had a random thought I’d like to share. With the unordinary amount of postponements due to weather we’ve seen this year, unless those games are made up in the following day or two as either a doubleheader or shared off-day, head-to-head league players often get screwed. We are used to it by now, but it’s why my esteemed colleague Mr. Flowers (among others) advocates against H2H. But… and you knew there was a but coming. Beginning in 2023 as a part of the new CBA, teams will play a balanced schedule. What this means is five fewer games against division opponents (19 to 14) while playing one series against every team in the other league. Clubs will still play their crosstown/rival Interleague team four times, twice per ballpark. Overall, Interleague games will rise from 16 to 46, and baseball traditionalists are pissed!

H2H fantasy players should not be. My theory? With fewer series against the same opponent, PPD games will have a greater emphasis to be made up within that series. It offers fewer opportunities to reschedule those games for later in the summer the next time the two teams meet up. While this will be a royal pain in the keister for club managers to negotiate their rotations and the athletes playing 18 innings, H2H managers have a greater chance of not losing those games in a given week. I’ll hate not watching more divisional contests, and why even have divisions at this point? However, it’s a good system because teams within the same division will have 91% of their games in common, an increase from 84% under the old schedule. Schedules among teams in the same league will feature 76% of common opponents, up from 52% in an unbalanced schedule.

Just some food for thought… on to our targets.  

A Few Areas to Target

Slumpin’ Angels
At the time of this writing, Los Angeles has lost 10 straight games. They will lick their wounds at home for seven games this week (BOS – 4, NYM – 3). Furthermore, the Halos will face six out of seven right-handed starters. While that may not exactly help out Mike Trout, who is mired in the worst slump of his career, ShoTime likes it quite fine. A “date” with Boston on the mound keeps Ohtani the hitter in play. Jared Walsh has hits in 10 of his last 11 games, and I expect many more this week. Streaming wise, Brandon Marsh (22% rostered in redraft, 82% dynasty) should see the strong side of the platoon this week, and maybe this pitching schedule gets him going:

• Michael Wacha
• Garrett Whitlock
• Nathan Eovaldi
• Nick Pivetta
• David Peterson (lone lefty) Tylor Megill
• Carlos Carrasco
• Taijuan Walker

Mixed Bag
The Padres play seven games in six days with a 6/11 doubleheader vs. COL. They’ll face one left-handed starter and six right, which will benefit Jake Cronenworth, who hit a long fly on 6/4 and has hits in 10 of his last 13 ball games, including three multi-hit affairs. Hosmer and Mazara could see an uptick in production, as well. Luke Voit has been swinging a better stick lately, and despite being a righty bat, Voit has hit fellow right-handers better in the split. The career batting average vs. RHP is .266; vs. LHP is .256. OPS vs. RHP? .856. Vs. LHP? .833. Finally, he has a wOBA of .365 and wRC+ of 132 vs. RHP, and those numbers are .354 and 125 respectively vs. LHP.

Colorado runs the same gauntlet without the benefit of a day off between their series as SD has. Further bummer, all seven games are away from Coors. They will see four lefties this week, which will benefit C.J. Cron and  Brendan Rodgers, but the Rockies are a dumpster fire on the road. We know this. But how much so? According to FanGraphs, the Rockies are 27^th in wRC+ (84) on the road this year.

Rattlesnakes in Your Backyard
Arizona plays seven games all on the road but in tasty venues (@CIN – 4, @PHI – 3). According to the Statcast Park Factors Leaderboard (see below), Great American Ball Park has the highest park factor for home runs, and Citizens Bank Park has the eighth-highest park factor for homers. All of this presents another sneaky source for streaming, like when you go to dump your leaves or grass trimmings in the backyard along the tree line and a slithery friend pops up to say hello. In deeper leagues, consider Josh Rojas (36%, 83%), Christian Walker (32%, 77%), Alek Thomas (13%, 68%), David Peralta (20%, 53%), and Pavin Smith (5.9%, 49%).

We Meet Again, Mr. Olson!
This one is simple. Matt Olson faces his former club on 6/7 & 6/8 as a part of his six-game week. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Just ask Cole Irvin, James Kaprielian and the shotty Oakland bullpen after this Interleague series.

“Why the Hell Wasn’t My Senior Prom at Fenway Park or Any Park for That Matter?!”
Fenway may have hosted one of the coolest proms while the BoSox were home playing. But unfortunately, Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, Kiké Hernández and crew are heading to the after-party at “Stifler’s mom’s house.” They have four in LA and then head north to Seattle for three. It’s a negative park shift, but volume is (prom) king. 

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IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

2022 Statistics

*Updated 6/5/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant

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TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Justin Verlander⁶ (SEA, MIA) ← Cristian Javier pushed back in rotation till 6/13 @TEX so he should see two starts next week instead. Verlander will return to the mound on four days’ rest for just the second time this season.
2. Tarik Skubal¹⁸ (@PIT, TOR) ← Picks up second start with DET opting to skip Rony García (which could also reflect an impeding Eduardo Rodriguez^IL return).
3. Kyle Wright²¹ (OAK, PIT)
4. Nestor Cortes²⁵ (@MIN, CHC) ← Fangraphs still has Cortes listed for 6/7 & Jameson Taillon⁶⁰ for 6/8, but most other sites have them flipped (which Yankees can opt to do since both pitchers threw on 6/2 due to the PPD makeup doubleheader). Official; Taillon gets the two starts.
5. Carlos Rodón²⁶ (COL, LAD)
6. Carlos Carrasco³¹ (@SD, @LAA)
7. Robbie Ray³⁴ (@HOU, BOS)
8. Michael Kopech⁵³ (LAD, TEX) ← The risk we take in weekly-lock leagues is Kopech losing a Sunday (and better) start from CHW managing his innings. We’ll continue to monitor for daily leagues.
9. Blake Snell⁵⁶ (NYM, COL) ← Snell’s second start is back on due to Mike Clevinger’s “illness” (see Daily Pitching Matchups for more)
10. Trevor Rogers⁵⁸ (WSH, @HOU) ← Rogers pushed to 6/9; Edward Cabrera will start 6/7 and get the two starts (see more below).
11. Noah Syndergaard⁵⁹ (BOS, NYM*) ← Pushed to 6/14 for extra rest; LAA will utilize 6/13 off day to rest starters. Michael Lorenzen & Patrick Sandoval will move up a day this weekend, with Jhonathan Díaz a likely option for 6/10 (was scratched for Triple-A start on 6/9).
12. Jeffrey Springs⁶² (STL, @MIN)

*Yuck! Things take a turn in the wrong direction at #5. Not a lot of options with a majority of teams playing six games (including some spot starts and potential IL returnees sprinkled into the mix).

Other Options: Bailey Ober⁶⁶ (NYY, TB)^IL, Garrett Whitlock⁶⁸ (@LAA, @SEA)*, Taijuan Walker⁷² (@SD, @LAA), Madison Bumgarner⁷³ (@CIN, @PHI), Cal Quantrill⁸³ (TEX, OAK), José Quintana⁸⁵ (DET, @ATL), Ranger Suárez⁸⁶ (@MIL, ARI)

*Not bad matchups for Whitlock, especially with Angles struggling (see above). Yet his season-high pitch count is 84, so you’re hoping he’s efficient enough to make it 5-6 innings. This play will depend on your league set-up.

Some #MNTwins news: starter Bailey Ober is heading back to the IL with a right groin injury. I’d guess Coke Sands takes the start tomorrow against the Yankees. Twins also signed RHP Aaron Sánchez to a minor league deal and assigned him to Triple-A.

— Megan Ryan (@theothermegryan) June 6, 2022

Danger Zone: Brad Keller¹²⁴ & Daniel Lynch¹⁴⁰ (TOR, BAL), Germán Márquez¹²⁵ (@SF, @SD), Jon Gray¹²⁸ (@CLE, @CHW), Dakota Hudson¹³⁰ (@TB, CIN), Hunter Greene¹³³ & Graham Ashcraft^NR (ARI, @STL), Cole Irvin¹⁴⁸ (@ATL, @CLE), Joan Adon^NR (@MIA, MIL)*, Jason Alexander^NR (PHI, @WSH)

*Adon’s two-step is only significant because it corresponds with Stephen Strasburg’s¹¹⁸ return @MIA. If Stras doesn’t return early this week, Evan Lee^NR could pitch on 6/7 and Adon on 6/8. UPDATE: Adon sent to Triple-A after first start; Lee will take his spot in the rotation as Strasburg returned on 6/9.

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STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JUNE 6 – 12

Pitching Spotlight

With Cody Poteet on the shelf and Jesús Luzardo yet to resume a throwing program, there is a hole left in the Marlins rotation. Poteet (right elbow muscle) was already filling in for the injured Luzardo and now will find himself out till at least 6/10. That would leave a potential opening on 6/8 unless Miami moves everyone up a day, which they easily could do (most of staff will be on extra rest due to spot start on 6/5 from the 5/31 PPD). Edward Cabrera has already slotted in as the Marlins’ new No. 5 starter and finds an opportunity to run with the job and stay in the big leagues.

Cabrera, the Marlins’ No. 4 prospect and No. 48 on MLB Pipeline’s top-100, made the trip from Triple-A Jacksonville to Denver, CO to make his season debut in Game 1 of the doubleheader against the Rockies due to the postponement. While he gave up four free passes and hit two batters in six scoreless innings of work, often struggling with command and taking counts full, only one batter stroked a hit and nine of them went down striking out. The 9 Ks are a career-high, but the 59 of 94 pitches for strikes tell a short story for more development. He was pitching in Coors Field, and after taking a mighty trip from FLA to Mile High, one could argue he had to adjust more than most. 

If we look at Cabrera’s Triple-A stats, a 4.56 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 32:12 K:BB across 23.2 innings paint a similar picture. His xFIP, however, is 3.70, and he has been inducing ground balls at a 45.6% rate (35.1% FB rate), which is pretty good for a power arm! Going back to last season, Cabrera started seven games for the Marlins (26.1 IP). The results weren’t pretty (5.81 ERA, 8.06 xERA, 5.14 xFIP, 5.31 SIERA). Again, control was his enemy with a 15.8% walk rate. Wet behind the ears, he was, but Cabby looked more comfortable in Coors Field of all places. And the numbers show he is moving in the right direction to be the next big arm for an already extremely stacked Marlins rotation. Once the walks fall, the sky’s the limit.

Finally, let’s look into Cabrera’s pitch mix and velocity from his start against Colorado. The 24-year-old right-hander was sitting between 93-99 mph with his four-seam fastball, which is a high-rise, swing-and-miss pitch. He threw 35 changeups with an average velocity of 93.6 mph and a max of 95.5 mph!!!

Fastest changeup swung on and missed, EVER 👀 Reminds me of deGrom https://t.co/iJfpxsCs3k

— POV (@Rob_Povia) June 2, 2022

It’s usually a good idea to stagger your velocities between fastball and changeup. However, as you can see illustrated in the clip of Brendan Rodgers striking out on the change, the pitch has an average vertical break of 24 inches! For comparison, his fastball average vertical break is 17 inches, so you can see why batters would have a problem with this. Pitch looks the same coming out of Cabrera’s hand, has similar velocity, and then just drops off the MF table. Of the 21 swings he got on his changeup, 10 were whiffs, and his fastball was missed five times on 10 swings. He also fired 18 sliders and seven curveballs to round out his repertoire. His talent is obvious by the amount of Rockies hitters who left the box shaking their heads. Will the impressive outing lead to more? We shall see.

Author’s note: Elieser Hernandez was optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville on 6/4, which is more validation for Cabrera. UPDATE: gets even better; will pitch 6/7 and gets two starts this week!

Six-Man Pitching Staffs: LAA, SD, MIN?

Mike Clevinger is due to come off the 15-day injured list on 6/5… where have we heard this before? By the time you’re reading this, you’ll know the outcome. Clevinger’s injury situation is becoming a problem. Dude can’t stay healthy, so you take what you can get from the 31-year-old. Assuming San Diego keeps with a six-man rotation, Clevinger should slot in the position currently held by Nick Martinez. But I expect the duo to work in conjunction to keep Clevinger healthy. Not to say tandem games necessarily, but kind of like how Boston is using Tanner Houck for Rich Hill. This will likely take wins away from Clevinger. Furthermore, San Diego will need to mitigate MacKenzie Gore’s innings as we have discussed in this space. 

Although not officially decided yet, MIN could go back to a six-man when Joe Ryan^IL (illness) and Sonny Gray^IL (right pectoral strain) are good to go. Manager Rocco Baldelli said he intended to keep with a six-man rotation as long as possible, aka till pitchers cut down from 14. However, we learned that clubs will be permitted to carry 14 pitchers until June 19. And with Devin Smeltzer pitching well, Baldelli does have that option. Despite MLB making up the rules as they go, the Twins can benefit by keeping guys rested.

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MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

Hyun Jin Ryu – 15-day IL, Forearm Strain/Elbow Inflammation (Retro 6/2)
MRI tests show a left forearm strain and elbow inflammation. The Blue Jays will know more when they consult with additional doctors, but even the best-case scenario could be a long road back for Ryu.

Blue Jays say Hyun Jin Ryu diagnosed with forearm strain and elbow inflammation. He’ll miss multiple weeks and is getting additional opinions on injury.

Ross Stripling into the rotation in his place, says Charlie Montoyo.

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) June 3, 2022

Alex Cobb – DTD, Left Hamstring
Cobb was set to make his ninth start of the season on 6/3 before being scratched shortly before the game. What was originally classified as “low back tightness” has been clarified as a totally different affliction. Hmm. Anyway, it’s the hammy, and Cobb is optimistic he can avoid the IL. However, the status of his next start is cloudy. 

Well, folks, that’s about it for those going down. It’s good news from here on out!!!

Brandon Woodruff Update
Woodruff threw off flat ground and said he felt much better than a couple of days ago. His next step is to pitch off the mound on 6/5. 

https://twitter.com/JoeTrezz/status/1535356619575410688

Clayton Kershaw Update
Kershaw will make a rehab start with Rancho Cucamonga on 6/5, according to Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. It’s bound to be a “Superkick Party!” Kershaw is expected to need only one rehab start before his return.

Mets SP Updates
DeGrom threw a 19-pitch BP session on 6/4, his first time on a mound since Spring Training, at Citi Field while his teammates were doing battle with the Dodgers out in LA. They were all fastballs of “moderate intensity,” whatever that means. But hopefully a good first step towards a July return. Tylor Megill is set to begin a Minor League rehab assignment with Double-A Binghamton on 6/5. If the Mets stick to their original plan of having Megill make two rehab starts, that will set him up for a return around June 15. Oh, and there’s this:

pic.twitter.com/05kX0v94RY

— Max Scherzer (@Max_Scherzer) June 4, 2022

Chris Sale Update
Sale threw his third BP session of the week (25-pitches) on 6/3. The next step of his long road back is live batters, which may happen middle of the week. 

Stephen Strasburg Update
Strasburg made his third rehab start on 6/3 (Triple-A), throwing six shutout innings of one-hit ball on 83 pitches while striking out four. He is expected to throw a bullpen session this weekend, after which Washington will determine his next step to recovery.

Willy Adames Update
Adames has returned from his rehab assignment, and the Brewers plan to activate him for their home series opener versus the Phillies beginning of the week. 

Dylan Carlson Update
Carlson began his rehab with Double-A Springfield on 6/3, starting with DH and returning to the outfield if all checks out after the weekend. He could be activated for the series against the Reds, which begins on 6/10.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Ross Stripling¹³⁸, RH TOR (@KC, @DET; <1% rostered in redraft, 19% dynasty) – Stripling resumes a role in the starting rotation once again for the injured Ryu (see IL report). And what a week it is to do so! Doesn’t get much better than these matchups, and despite a 4.22 ERA on the season, his FIP is 3.30 (3.51 xFIP) and the xERA is at 3.36 (3.48 SIERA). Stripling isn’t what he once was, but he has done well in rediscovering himself as a swingman for Toronto. He strikes hitters out at below league average, but he doesn’t walk many either (5.8% BB rate).

Honorable Mentions: Kyle Bradish¹⁴⁷, RH BAL (CHC, @KC; <1%, 24%) – 6/8 PPD pushes rotation back a day and pushes Bradish to next week at Toronto.

Solo Start: Aaron Ashby⁶⁴, LH MIL (@WSH; 35%, 69%), Edward Cabrera⁸⁹, RH MIA (WSH, @HOU; 9%, 69%) – Cabrera picks up a second start this week by being moved up to 6/7!

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!

DAILY PITCHING MATCHUPS

Sunday, June 12, 2022
*Not Confirmed

Kutter Crawford is here.

— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) June 11, 2022

#RedSox updates: Crawford here on the taxj squad. Potential starter tomorrow or bullpen game … No IL for Eovaldi but pushed back to Wednesday at least. Pivetta goes Tuesday.

— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) June 11, 2022