In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
UPDATE: SEA shifts to 3 L / 3 R with DET rotation reshuffle.
NOTES: Six weeks down, and we continue to crush our leagues. The Discord chat has been 🔥 of late, so if you have yet to join the party, what are you waiting for (see link above)? Get the latest news plus, if you have remaining questions about your team(s) after reading this article, get an answer right away! We have been filled with many storylines so far in 2023. Luis Arráez is hitting over .400 (where have we read that before 🤔). Max Muncy leads MLB in home runs after a down 2022, and it’s not even September yet when he usually makes his magical batting runs for the Dodgers and our Fantasy teams. Also, Ronald Acuna Jr. is stealing bases at a ridiculous pace. Maybe 50/50 isn’t that far out of reach after all! Meanwhile, others feel the cold April rain. Who can rebound in May?
A big time disparity in schedules this week will make this scoring period a challenge. Eight teams have seven games on their docket, while four teams will only play five games spreading the lineup headaches around. This leaves 18 teams with six games, so finding the edges from the masses is vital. Furthermore, it’s an AL kind of week, as you’ll see in the targets below.
Five-Game Weeks: BOS (@ATL – 2, STL – 3), TOR (@PHI – 2, ATL – 3), ATL (BOS – 2, @TOR – 3), PHI (TOR – 2, @COL – 3)
A Few Areas to Target
If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!
Start Spreading the News
We find quite a few homestands this week, but none have quite the advantage as the Bronx bats of Yankee Stadium, especially in terms of the home run (124 Statcast HR Park Factor). New York (OAK – 3, TBR – 4) will face four left-hand starters in their seven games. The fourth lefty will be Josh Fleming, who will either follow an opener or make a traditional start. My gut says he will follow an opener to avoid facing the likes of Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu more than twice. I’m excited about all three’s potential this week! In particular, Torres has a .513 SLG and .856 OPS vs. LHP (132 wRC+, 666 career PA).
For streamers, we can look toward Harrison Bader (36% rostered in Yahoo, 10% in ESPN, 76% in Fantrax Dynasty) while Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are still on the mend. He has seven hits in 18 at-bats since putting his injury behind him, including a triple, two home runs and 7 RBI overall. When can we expect that Judge fellow to be back in the lineup? See the IL Report below!
The Breakdown Proceeds to the Breakthrough
It’s been a horrid start offensively for the White Sox (@KCR – 4, HOU – 3). The Pale Hose are 25th in team OPS (.679) and 22nd in team batting average (.234). The long ball has been scarce as well with 33.43 AB/HR, also 22nd. So why am I recommending them? It all changes this week!
For starters, the ballparks have excellent Statcast Park Factors for 2023 so far. Guaranteed Rate Field is now No. 2 behind Coors Field with an overall 111 SPF. Also, Kauffman Stadium has been playing up, currently No. 9 with a 108. There lies lots of extra-base hit possibilities in both parks. Secondly, on top of playing seven games this week, the opposing starters are juicy! They will face Zack Greinke, Jordan Lyles, Brad Keller, Brady Singer, J.P. France (if he sticks), Brandon Bielak and Hunter Brown (ok, he’s good). For a predominantly righty lineup, facing all right-hand starters is not exactly ideal. However, I’m willing to look past the splits based on the low quality of opposition.
Hello, Wisconsin!
If you want to target an NL team, allow me to present the Brew Crew. What was once a hot offense has cooled some, but Milwaukee (LAD – 3, KCR – 3) has been a better home team offensively. Plus, their home digs have been a hitter’s paradise. American Family Field is tied for sixth in overall Statcast Park Factors. AFF’s 149 HR Park Factor trails only Great American Ball Park (CIN), Angel Stadium and Globe Life Field (TEX). There are no real lefty/righty split advantages in their week, but they’ll get the weak side of the Dodgers’ rotation along with some slop from Kansas City (see above). Brice Turang (9% rostered in Yahoo, 4% in ESPN, 49% in Fantrax Dynasty) has hits in four straight contests, including two multi-hit games. Turang, much like the team itself, is rediscovering his stroke from the beginning of the season.
The San Francisco Treat
An even better situation than Milwaukee lies with the Boys from the Bay. San Francisco (WSH – 3, @ARI – 4) faces favorable pitching matchups this week.
- Jake Irvin
- Patrick Corbin
- Josiah Gray
- Tommy Henry
- Ryne Nelson
- Zac Gallen
- Brandon Pfaadt (not confirmed)
If you are keeping track at home, that is two left-handers and five right-handers, which provides a platoon advantage for the SFG lefty bats. LaMonte Wade Jr. (20% rostered in Yahoo, 9% in ESPN, 54% in Fantrax Dynasty) has cooled off a touch from a torrid end of April, but I expect a boon for production to once again surface this week. On the season, Wade carries a .972 OPS with 6 HR and 25:23 BB:K.
Quick Hitters…
- TBR (@BAL – 3, @NYY – 4): Will face Gerrit Cole and some quality arms but will also see the likes of Dean Kremer, Clarke Schmidt and scuffling youngster Grayson Rodriguez. With six right-hand starters out of seven overall, the Lowe boys are prime for a big week.
- MIN* (SDP – 3, CHC – 3): Five righties will oppose the Twins to one lone southpaw. Six-game homestand at Target Field, which is tied for third in overall Statcast Park Factors (homers down, but XBH haven). Fire up, Joey Gallo (39% rostered in Yahoo, 14% in ESPN, 84% in Fantrax Dynasty) and Max Kepler (5% Yahoo, 4% ESPN, 48% Fantrax Dynasty)!
- BAL* (TBR – 3, PIT – 3): Hard to find anyone hotter than Anthony Santander! With a 1 L / 5 R opposing SP schedule, I expect Cedric Mullins, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman to join him this week.
- CLE* (DET – 3, LAA – 3): On the opposite side of the pendulum, the Guardians will face five left-hand starters in their six games! While this may take some air out of the sails for Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor and the scuffling Andrés Giménez, Amed Rosario and Mike Zunino stand to benefit.
*The last three homestands of six games are listed in order of preference based on home park factors & lineup.
If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
There are some directions you can go when the IL has made you its bitch.
First, we have the Diamondbacks (MIA – 3, SFG – 4). We’ve discussed them before – sixth most runs, third-lowest strikeout rate and fifth-best team batting average. They have been a reliable streaming source by excelling in the most beneficial areas for players to pick up extra counting stats. This week shapes up to be another week to target D-back bats. Miami has the tenth-worst team ERA (4.74) and sixth-worst HR/9 mark at 1.38. Many in the fantasy community may miss this element, expecting Miami’s strength to automatically be their pitching staff. However, while arms like Jesús Luzardo and Edward Cabrera have been brilliant at times, walks and home runs have been a bug-a-boo. Even the current NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has had his struggles this season, which, to their credit, Steamer foresaw (D-backs will miss him).
With the ARI/SFG matchup, believe it or not, the Giants somehow manage to give up 1.33 HR/9 (ninth). Arizona has 31 XBH over their last nine games along with 50 XBH at home this season. Furthermore, Arizona bats .290 at Chase Field (third best at home), and the Giants have a 4.73 road ERA (11th worst). So in combination with the Marlins series, it’s another good week for the D-backs! Gabriel Moreno (24% rostered in Yahoo, 9% in ESPN, 72% in Fantrax Dynasty) is a main target. He is on fire right now after a sluggish start to his first full season in the bigs (and first with Arizona). In his last 12 games, he’s hitting .342 with a strikeout rate of just 17%. Moreno should have plenty of RBI opportunities, and he’s hitting .292 with runners in scoring position.
Ketel Marte is also en fuego with 3 HR, 8 RBI and a 5:3 BB:K ratio in his last six games. Plus, in 74 career games against SFG, Marte is hitting .294 with 40 XBH and a 12% BB rate. He, along with the rest of the D-back bats, will face five right-hand starters in their seven games. This bodes well for Josh Rojas (39% Yahoo, 18% ESPN, 86% Fantrax Dynasty) and Pavin Smith (2% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 17% Fantrax Dynasty) in platoon splits as well as rookie (and team leader) Corbin Carroll.
Another direction we can scour is Kansas City Royals (CHW – 4, @MIL – 3) lefty bats. They will face all right-handed starters this week, making it a good time to play Vinnie Pasquantino or even a struggling MJ Melendez if you have to since he shouldn’t sit against the righties. Speaking of young talent, consider streaming Nick Pratto (2% Yahoo, <1% ESPN, 25% Fantrax Dynasty). He’s hit the ground running since his call-up with a .343/.410/.457 slash line, including a mammoth home run on 5/5. The 24-year-old first baseman does have more than his fair share of swings and misses with a 38.5% K rate this season, so in point leagues where we are deducted, he loses appeal. And all of the KC bats will face some tough opposing pitchers among all the righties, so I prefer Arizona to Kansas City as a streaming source this week.
Places to Avoid
Despite rattling off many favorable matchups for this week, there are situations we should avoid. The Detroit Tigers (@CLE -3, SEA – 3) begin their week with the pitching factory that is Cleveland. They have a meeting with the Bs – Bibee, Bieber and Battenfield. Wait, Bibee and Bieber? Is that for real? I digress. No matter what the nomenclature, those are some formidable arms. It does get easier with Seattle’s bottom tier of their rotation, minus Logan Gilbert. However, almost everyone who has taken the hill for Seattle has delivered, as their team FIP is 3.42, the best in baseball.
Many fantasy managers expect big things from Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, and that has yet to be the case. Greene has shown flashes of making good contact but his hard-hit rate has dropped 7.1% this season, his barrel rate has dropped a full point to 8.3%, and his strikeout rate has risen to a terrible 31.1% (30.6% chase rate and 26.7% whiff rate). His eight-game hit streak was snapped on 5/7, which may foreshadow what is to come. I would sit him this week along with Torlelson. We are still waiting for the home runs to come, and while his .252 xBA is higher than last season, that’s still pretty shitty. #Analysis Ok, I’ll go deeper. He stinks at hitting fastballs at the major-league level (.203 in 2023). Tork is a must-sit even in the deepest of leagues this week.
Also Avoid…
- LAA (HOU – 3, @CLE – 3): I like this lineup and don’t tend to shy away from deploying its pieces no matter what the matchups are. However, Houston provides a serious challenge with Brown, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier on the docket. Plus, they get the aforementioned Guardians, albeit the lower tier, and a second start from Bibee. Cleveland does have a 1.28 WHIP and a low 1.00 HR/9 as a team. You may not have to necessarily sit your Angel hitters, but I would lower expectations for such bats as Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury.
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
**2023 Statistics**
*As of 5/6/23; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Shane McClanahan4 (@BAL, @NYY)
- Zac Gallen6 (MIA, SFG)
- Max Scherzer12 (
@CIN, @WSH) ⬅️ Scherzer has been scratched from his 5/9 start due to neck spasms and is DTD. “He believes he will be better in a matter of days and plans to pitch during this road trip,” according to Ben Weinrib of MLB.com. David PetersonNR, who was already up with the team in case Max was scratched, will start in his stead. - Aaron Nola17 (TOR, @COL) ⬅️ See Ranger Suárez update in IL Report
- Logan Gilbert19 (TEX, @DET)
- Logan Webb24 (WSH, @ARI)
- Dylan Cease25 (@KCR, HOU)
- Nestor Cortes27 (OAK, TBR)
- Freddy Peralta31 (LAD,
KCR) ⬅️ Unless MIL utilizes a six-man rotation with Adrian HouserNR returning from the IL. However, Peralta’s potential second start would fall on 5/14 (five days’ rest), so I don’t see Houser or Colin Rea supplanting Peralta. Rea could be out of the rotation after filling in “admirably” (being nice), but I’m sure he will be in the mix when MIL wants to give a starter an extra day of rest. UPDATE: Rea will after all return to rotation with struggling Eric Lauer heading to the pen. Rea will re-enter on 5/14. - Charlie Morton34 (BOS,
@TOR) ⬅️ An extra day of rest to keep the rest of the staff healthy. - Marcus Stroman37 (STL, @MIN)
- Lucas Giolito39 (@KCR, HOU)
- Hunter Brown44 (@LAA, @CHW)
- Patrick Sandoval48 (HOU, @CLE)
- Mitch Keller51 (COL, @BAL)
- Jon Gray54 (@SEA, @OAK) ⬅️ POV SPECIAL
- Tony Gonsolin55 (@MIL, SDP)
- Miles Mikolas58 (@CHC, @BOS)
- Anthony DeSclafani60 (WSH, @ARI)
Other Options: Zach Eflin61 (@BAL, @NYY), Kyle Gibson62 (TBR, PIT), Tanner Bibee68 (DET, LAA) POV SPECIAL, Andrew Heaney81 (@SEA, @OAK), Brandon Pfaadt85 (MIA, SFG) POV SPECIAL
Danger Zone: Michael Wacha109 (@MIN, @LAD), Kyle FreelandNR (@PIT, PHI), Clarke SchmidtNR (OAK, TBR), Luke WeaverNR(NYM, @MIA), Louie VarlandNR (SDP, CHC), JP SearsNR & Drew RucinskiNR(@NYY, TEX) James Kaprielian is back in our lives as OAK will go six-man even with Mason Miller on the IL, Zack GreinkeNR & Jordan LylesNR (CHW, @MIL), Joey WentzNR(@CLE, SEA), Jake IrvinNR (@SFG, NYM?)
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR MAY 8 – 14
How ‘Bout A 1993 World Series Rematch Twofer?
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
Tues/Wed, May 9-10 – 6:40/4:05 PM ET
Alek Manoah vs. Aaron Nola
Kevin Gausman vs. Zack Wheeler
Fantasy Goodness!
UPDATE:
RIP Vida Blue 🙏🏼
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
This just in…
Eloy Jiménez, White Sox – 10-day IL, Appendix (Retro 5/6)
Jiménez underwent an appendectomy on 5/6 after experiencing abdominal pain. The White Sox anticipate a recovery period of four to six weeks. As we discussed in Areas to Target, the Pale Hose lineup was just hitting its stride with Jiménez in tow. In the meantime, I expect Gavin Sheets to gain a bulk of the at-bats up for grabs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays – DTD, Left Wrist Discomfort
Vlad Jr. was out of the lineup for the second straight game on 5/7. The Blue Jays believe this is minor, but with an off-day to begin the week, this gives Guerrero three days to recover. However, it would be wise to continue monitoring this situation.
Medical Updates…
- Liam Hendriks, White Sox: Hendriks met with the media after announcing on his Instagram that he is cancer-free and in remission. He began a rehab assignment on 5/5 with Triple-A Charlotte at Gwinnett. 🙏🏼
- Aaron Judge, Yankees: Judge (right hip strain) participated in all on-field activities prior to the Yankees’ first two games of their weekend series with Tampa Bay. Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Judge is on track for activation as soon as eligible, which is 5/9 vs. OAK. This is tricky since New York has a game on 5/8, and Judge would be locked in, but he seems safe to deploy.
- Luis Severino, Yankees: Severino (right lat strain) is scheduled to make his first Minor League rehab start on 5/10 for Single-A Tampa, throwing 45 to 50 pitches, and he is expected to make about three starts.
- Jose Altuve, Astros: Altuve took batting practice on the field on 5/6, his first session since undergoing surgery to repair his fractured right thumb on 3/22.
- Tyler Glasnow, Rays: Glasnow, who is working his way back from the Grade 2 left oblique strain he sustained early in Spring Training, began his Minor League rehab assignment on 5/5 by throwing 46 pitches over 2.1 innings for Triple-A Durham against Norfolk. According to Statcast, his fastball topped out at 97.8 mph and averaged 96.2 mph.
- James Paxton, Red Sox: Paxton (right hamstring strain) will be activated in the coming week and could make his first start of the season during the Red Sox’s weekend series against the Cardinals, per Red Sox manager Alex Cora. Meanwhile, Garrett Whitlock was medically cleared after checking in with the doctors on 5/2, and he resumed throwing. Whitlock was placed on the IL after only three starts since he returned from a right hip injury. The hope is he can now return after a minimum-length stay, although there has been no update since 5/3. In either event, Boston’s pitching rotation is about to get real crowded.
- Johnny Cueto, Marlins: Cueto (right biceps tightness) was scheduled to throw five innings on 5/6 with Triple-A Jacksonville but exited in the third inning after spraining his ankle while covering first base. Meanwhile, Braxton Garrett continues to roll with the fifth spot.
- Ranger Suárez, Phillies: Suárez (strained elbow) was too efficient in his third rehab start for Triple-A Lehigh Valley on 5/7. He did fire five innings of one-run baseball on four hits with three strikeouts. But he did so in only 48 pitches (35 strikes). Matt Gelb of The Athletic theories that Suárez likely completed his pitch-count goal in a pen session after leaving the minor-league contest. I have him ranked above in red. However, if you wanna see a start first (especially at Coors Field), I won’t blame you!
UPDATE (CLICK TO ENLARGE)
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Tanner Bibee68, RH CLE (DET, LAA; 46% rostered in Yahoo, 17% in ESPN, 74% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Bibee is the No. 57 overall prospect in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 (No. 70 according to FanGraphs) as well as CLE’s No. 5. Although picking up some steam recently, DET is still fourth-worst in the league when it comes to creating runs vs. RHP (77 wRC+). They also slug .343 with a .124 ISO and a .281 wOBA in the split. LAA is more formidable, although they are just above average in creating runs against righties (104 wRC+). The Halos slug .412 with a .163 ISO and a .324 wOBA vs. RHP, so there are warts here for Bibee. However, I love the K rates throughout his pro career, alongside tidy walk and K:BB rates. Limit the free passes, and you can limit the Angels offense.
Honorable Mention: Jon Gray54, RH TEX (@SEA, @OAK; 52% rostered in Yahoo, 52% in ESPN, 86% in Fantrax Dynasty) – If Gray is available in your league, he gets two solid matchups in great pitchers’ parks. Gray is a safer, higher floor stream than Bibee, with some upside, so I’d prefer Gray to Bibee. If you need multiple arms, why not stream both? Mwahahaha
One-Start(ish) Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt85, RH ARI (MIA, SFG; 27% rostered in Yahoo, 9% in ESPN, 79% in Fantrax Dynasty) – It was a tough major-league debut, but it was against the Rangers. One would think Pfaadt gets at least one more crack at it against a far weaker Marlins squad, who strikes out at a 24% rate (10th worst; 24.9% vs. RHP, eighth-worst). From there, assuming he has a better second showing, the 24-year-old righty hurler should get a second start against the Giants and again at home. What they gonna do; activate Zach DaviesNR early in his rehab? Doubtful! Recall a Drey Jameson or even recently acquired Konnor Pilkington (started 11 games for CLE in 2022)? I guess, especially if the club doesn’t feel comfortable starting Pfaadt on four days’ rest. Expect Pfaadt to pay off them FAAB dollars this week and see at least one start!
UPDATE: I was very wrong, but…
Ultra Sneaky: Luis L. OrtizNR, RH PIT/Indianapolis Indians – AAA (COL?; 1% rostered in Yahoo, <1% in ESPN, 35% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Be on the lookout for an Ortiz call-up to replace Vince Velasquez (15-day IL, right elbow inflammation) in the Pirates rotation. VV’s velo dropped significantly in his last start, resulting in an early hook. Despite some initial optimism, Velasquez will rest and continue to monitor the injury. In the meantime, Pittsburgh’s No. 8 ranked prospect (#77 overall according to Fangraphs) was moved up a day and threw only three innings (1 H, 0 R, 3 K, 42 pitches) on 5/5 for Triple-A Indianapolis. This realigns his schedule and sets him up to be able to start on 5/9 against the Rockies at home (VV’s spot), which is always a prime streaming target.
Even before this start, Ortiz had been pitching really well at Triple-A this season (visit link above). He also made four MLB starts last season (4.50 ERA, 2.96 xERA), including three solid starts vs. NYY, CHC and CIN. Keep tabs on this, as it could be a nice streaming opportunity.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!