In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
Before we begin, sometimes it’s just your day…
NOTES: Hard to believe we are already in Week 5 of the 2023 fantasy baseball season. Our teams are taking shape, and we’re beginning to see what we truly have. While evaluating our rosters daily is always a good idea, it is still early. Please avoid making rash decisions after barely four weeks of baseball.
Some draft-day tanks are apparent. And if they are late-round fliers, they can be safely discarded to the waiver wire. But please – for the love of all that is holy – do not drop/give up on core members of your team until Memorial Day (at the earliest). What can we really know from 100 PA or 5 GS? Remember, “Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.” Look, I get it. We don’t want to be too passive and miss out on opportunities. I’m not saying to do that. All I’m recommending is to give the guys a chance to perform up to their career norms and projected outlooks. This is not fantasy football; it’s a game of regression, both positive and negative. That’s why they play 162.
Speaking of the games, the NL had a seven-game week fiesta last time out. Now, it’s the AL’s time to party, with ten teams playing seven contests. Overall, 13 teams are playing seven games, 16 teams play six, and the Padres (@CHC – 3, SFG – 2) draw the short end of the stick this week.
A Few Areas to Target
If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!
Lowe Down and Dirty
Tampa Bay is all about making history this season. Before knocking in the winning run in extra innings, Randy Arozarena mashed a first-inning shot off Dylan Cease to extend Tampa’s record-setting home run streak to 21 games opening the season. Will it be 22 when Fantasy Week 5 begins? (YES!) And if so, can it continue? Both questions will have an answer by the time you read this, but hopefully, I can shed some light.
The Rays (HOU – 3, @CHW – 4) will face some tough pitchers this week mixed with a couple of lemons: José Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Hunter Brown, Cease again, Lucas Giolito (again), Lance Lynn and Mike Clevinger. However, if you notice, those are all right-handed pitchers. This sets up well for the resurgent Brandon Lowe. For those BvP truthers, the 28-year-old second baseman is 3-for-11 with a double against Urquidy and 2-for-4 with a double and home run against Garcia (never faced Brown). As for the Pale Hose, B. Lowe may be 0-for-10 against Cease and Giolito with eight strikeouts, but he’s 2-for-6 against Lynn with a home run (never faced Clevinger). Seeing both Cease and Gio for the second time in a week could also give an edge to all TBR hitters.
Speaking of which, Josh Lowe (70% rostered in Yahoo, 40% in ESPN, 80% in Fantrax Dynasty) is a fellow lefty who could benefit. For his young career, J. Lowe slashes .289/.348/.503 with all six of his long flies vs. RHP (144 wRC+). Now will be the last opportunity to stream J. Lowe before Jose Siri (16% Yahoo, 5% ESPN, 52% Fantrax) makes his return, cutting the playing time of the prior. Siri began his rehab assignment for Triple-A Durham on 4/21 and is nearing a return.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Cleveland (COL – 3, @BOS – 3) may not be traveling to Coors Field to begin the week, but the Rockies’ pitching staff sports an ugly 4.55 road ERA, which ranks 19th in MLB. Afterward, these Guardians travel to hitter-friendly Fenway Park, which now ranks fourth in Statcast’s Overall Park Factor (112). To make matters even more appealing, the staff of the BoSox has a 5.34 home ERA so far this season (25th). With these stats in mind, what Guardian bats can we look to stream this week? Is Star-Lord available? Well, since he is on the IL (Intergalactic List, sorry), here are some other viable options.
Oscar Gonzalez (31% rostered in Yahoo, 10% in ESPN, 56% in Fantrax Dynasty) has had a sluggish start, hitting just .173 with a .492 OPS in 54 PA. However, Gonzalez hit his first homer of the season this past week (424-foot shot!) along with a two-hit game on 4/22. So, he’s trending in the right direction. Gonzalez clubbed 11 homers in 91 games last season while adding nine in just 41 Triple-A contests. The righty will only face one left-hand starter this week in the Rockies’ Austin Gomber, which could cost some ABs, but the team wants to get him going, so he’ll see his fair share.
If you’re in need of catching help, may I interest you in Mike Zunino (6% Yahoo, 6% ESPN, 41% Fantrax)? Zunino has only one homer on the season in 51 PA, but he boasts a solid .225 ISO due to six doubles. He’ll face the lefty Gomber to begin the week and finishes his week in Boston with the Green Monster sitting just 310 feet from home plate. He should be able to continue his early-season power surge.
Texas Ragers?
Texas (@CIN – 3, NYY – 4) sees a mixed bag of opposing starters with a likely split of two lefties to five righties. However, there are some juicy matchups within their schedule.
- Nick Lodolo, LHP (Ok, he’s good but has a 4.98 ERA out of the gate – 3.55 xERA, 3.48 xFIP, 3.31 SIERA.)
- Luke Weaver, RHP (2022 stats: 35.2 IP, 6.56 ERA, 6.02 FIP – 🗑️)
- Graham Ashcraft, RHP (1.88 ERA, 3.76 xERA, 4.10 xFIP, 4.49 SIERA – possible regression?)
- Gerrit Cole, RHP (lone ace to avoid with sparkling numbers: 0.79 ERA, 2.82 xERA, 2.21 FIP, but can blow up – 3.46 xFIP, 3.54 SIERA.)
- Clarke Schmidt, RHP (8.79 ERA, 7.40 xERA, 6.01 FIP – it’s been a disaster so far.)
- Jhony Brito, RHP (5.40 ERA, 7.63 xERA, 5.18 xFIP, 5.33 SIERA)
- Nestor Cortes, LHP (3.09 ERA & 2.97 xERA but 4.87 xFIP & 4.23 SIERA)
Numerous ways to go, but I love Nate Lowe’s prospectus to turn it on (great, another Lowe). Adolis García is raging right now, and Marcus Semien is equally as hot. A third en fuego Ranger bat that can be had is catcher Jonah Heim (53% rostered in Yahoo, 26% in ESPN, 74% in Fantrax Dynasty)! His switch-hitting ways and defensive prowess keep his bat in the lineup.
Desert Rose
The D-backs (KCR – 3, @COL – 3) have the best matchup of the upcoming week, including a trio of contests at Coors Field. As it turns out, they will take on two of the worst pitching staffs in baseball, as the Royals sit 28th with a 5.45 ERA, and the Rockies are only one spot better with a mark of 5.43, as we indicated above. Furthermore, Colorado has been torched to the tune of a 6.40 ERA at Coors Field this season. I expect Ketel Marte to have a superior week. He’s off to a hot start with two homers, seven doubles, a triple and a stolen base in 20 games while striking out just 11% of the time. With four multi-hit games in his last five starts, his slash line is a tidy .282/.317/.474. He is a must-start this week!
If you are looking for a streamer from out in the desert, look no further than old friend Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (34% rostered in Yahoo, 10% in ESPN, 73% in Fantrax Dynasty). I got a lot of heat when I told subs to drop him mid-last season, but the Jays were hearing me. Now, I’m telling you to start him. No, I am not off my meds again!
Gurriel got off to a slow start this season, but his bat has come around of late. The D-backs outfielder has at least one hit in eight of his last nine games, with a trio of multi-hit games in that time. He’s recorded five doubles, a triple, and a home run during that stretch as he continues to regress positively following a slow start. Additionally, his 50% hard-hit rate is 84th percentile. With marks of a .136 ISO and .290 wOBA, he’s not a must-add or the player everyone thought he was, but he makes for a nice streamer.
Quick Hitters…
- Baltimore (BOS – 3, @DET – 4) will face four left-hand starters in their seven games. Ryan Mountcastle week incoming!
- Toronto (CHW – 3, SEA – 3) plays a six-game homestand vs. all righties. I love Daulton Varsho, and Brandon Belt (3% rostered in Yahoo, 1% in ESPN, 24% in Fantrax Dynasty), who delivered a bomb on 4/21, makes for an interesting stream in leagues of 14 teams or more.
- The Twinkies also play at home all week; only their homestand is for seven games (NYY – 3, KCR – 4). Furthermore, they will see six right-hand starters. Joey Gallo is back to murdering the baseball (1.101 OPS), as we expected. I also expect the body count to rise this week.
- The Angels (OAK – 4, @MIL – 3) will face three southpaw starters this week, which bodes well for Mike Trout, Hunter Renfroe and the fellow righty brigade. With this in mind, Shohei Ohtani is better to utilize as a pitcher, especially when facing the hapless Oakland Athletics.
- Atlanta (MIA – 4, @NYM – 3) will see five righties out of the seven opposing starters this week. Matt Olson is happy as a clam, and the much maligned Eddie Rosario (<1% Yahoo & ESPN, 20% Fantrax) will be able to retort. Rosario is a deep-league flier.
- Two Missouri teams depart The Show-Me State this week. We’ll see the Royals take on a seven-game road trip to Arizona for three and Minnesota for four. Chase Field is currently 11th in Statcast’s Overall Park Factor and is an excellent source of extra-base hits. Target Field is 22nd, but weather has some part to play. KC will also face six right-hand starters, which bodes well for scuffling MJ Melendez (big game on 4/22 though) and Vinnie Pasquantino. As for St. Louis, they have their West Coast trip to San Fran for four and Dodger Stadium for three. Additionally, they will see five righties to two lefties.
If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
The Detroit Tigers (@MIL – 3, BAL – 4) may be your perfect streaming base. For starters, they get a positive park shift when traveling to American Family Field in Milwaukee. The field has the No. 2 Overall Park Factor (behind only Coors Field), according to Statcast. The Brew Crew has seen the second-highest Run Factor and third-highest Home Run Factor. Then, when they return home to Detroit and Comerica Park, the Tigers will still enjoy the 13th-highest Statcast Overall Park Factor. Triples are the seventh-highest factor (135), and their HR Park Factor is well above average at 115.
When looking at their opposing pitcher schedule, Detroit will face six right-handers out of seven. This is music to the ears of Riley Greene (61% rostered in Yahoo, 18% in ESPN, 94% in Fantrax Dynasty), who had been DET’s hottest hitter before a recent 2-for-16 stretch. If an impatient manager lets go of Greene, pounce on him this week! Considering the righteous park factors and opposing-pitcher handedness, he’s a must-start for me in leagues of 12 or more. For deeper league consideration, I present lefty OF/DH Kerry Carpenter (3% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 32% Fantrax). The 25-year-old strikes out a ton but makes solid hard-hit contact with a 47.4% rate this season in 58 PA (36.1% in 2022, 113 PA). He’s a BA drain and can penalize you in points leagues with the K. But, for one week only, I think he’ll do quite swimmingly.
Places to Avoid
The White Sox take on two tough opponents this week in the Toronto Blue Jays (away for 3) and Tampa Bay Rays (home for 4). The Jays rotation has struggled in the early going, and the White Sox avoid Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah. However, the bottom trio of starters should do well against a Chicago offense that is bottom-10 overall this season. The Pale Hose wrap up their week versus a Rays staff that ranks first with a 2.79 team ERA. For comparison, the next closest team is the Yankees with a 3.11 ERA.
Particularly, I would steer clear of Eloy Jiménez and Andrew Benintendi. Jiménez has had a poor start with a .208 BA, but he has shown signs of life with homers in two of his last three games. Yet, the K-rate is an unsightly 30.9%, and he ranks in the 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate, 27th in average exit velocity, ninth in xwOBA, 15th in xBA, ninth in xSLG, seventh in whiff rate, and second in chase rate. I don’t see much changing this week. As for Benintendi, a .282 BA is nothing to sneeze at, but he’s yet to homer in 80 plate appearances. He hit just five home runs last season in 126 games. He does have two steals, five doubles and 12 runs scored on the season but also just five RBI and a .261 xwOBA (first percentile in hard-hit rate & barrel rate).
Also Avoid…
- NYY (@MIN – 3, @TEX – 4): Yanks will face some fierce starting pitchers this week. MIN is the league’s sixth-ranked pitching staff with a 3.47 ERA. Plus, they’ll face Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and one of Kenta Maeda or Tyler Mahle (more on that in IL Report). Then it’s the Rangers, who rank seventh with a 3.49 ERA and will feature a hot & healthy Jacob deGrom. As much as it would pain to sit an Anthony, Volpe or Rizzo, I would still keep my expectations down for anyone not named Aaron Judge.
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
**2023 Statistics**
*As of 4/22/23; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Spencer Strider11 (MIA, @NYM)
- Logan Gilbert25 (@PHI,
@TOR) ⬅️ SEA switches up rotation order on 4/25. Marco Gonzales145 (@PHI, @TOR) jumps ahead of Gilbert and gets the two-start week. 😭 - Charlie Morton27 (MIA,
@NYM) - Nestor Cortes30 (@MIN, @TEX)
- Chris Bassitt32 (CHW, SEA)
- Joe Ryan37 (NYY,
KCR) ⬅️ MIN will recall Bailey Ober to start on 4/29 to stretch out a beaten up rotation and give both Sonny G & Ryan an extra days rest with Kenta Maeda set to hit the IL and Tyler Mahle unsure if he can make his next start. Do-Hyoung Park also tweets Louie Varland could step in if Mahle has to miss his next start. - Nick Lodolo38 (TEX, @OAK)
- Sonny Gray39 (NYY, KCR)
- Justin Steele40 (SDP, @MIA)
- Lance Lynn42 (@TOR, TBR) ⬅️ Wouldn’t blame you for sitting Lynn this week, coming off his struggles. If you have a better option, go for it. For the time being, he falls eleven spots to #42.
- Brady Singer44 (@ARI, @MIN)
- Drew Rasmussen47 (HOU, @CHW) ⬅️ Ras and Taj below project for a two-step unless TBR utilizes Jalen Beeks in a bullpen game to give both of them an extra day of rest. In that case, Ras could lose his second start. However, the team has an off day on 5/1, so my gut says both stick.
- Nathan Eovaldi49 (@CIN, NYY)
- Jordan Montgomery50 (@SFG, @LAD)
- Chris Sale57 (@BAL, CLE)
- Alex Cobb59 (STL, @SDP)
- Kyle Bradish60 (BOS, @DET) ⬅️ POV SPECIAL
Other Options: José Urquidy61 (@TBR, PHI), Edward Cabrera67 (@ATL, CHC), Martín Pérez77 (@CIN, NYY), Taj Bradley79 (HOU, @CHW), Mason Miller80 (@LAA, CIN), Josiah Gray84 (@NYM, PIT), Johan Oviedo103 (LAD, @WSH) POV SPECIAL HM
Danger Zone: Mike Clevinger105 (@TOR, TBR), Noah Syndergaard106 (@PIT, STL), José Suarez136 (OAK, @MIL), Ken Waldichuk137 (@LAA, CIN), Jhony Brito149 (@MIN, @TEX), Dean KremerNR (BOS, @DET), Brad KellerNR (@ARI, @MIN), Bailey FalterNR (SEA, @HOU), Tommy HenryNR (KCR, @COL)*, Matthew BoydNR & Spencer TurnbullNR (@MIL, BAL), Colin ReaNR (DET, LAA), Austin GomberNR (@CLE, ARI), Bryan HoeingNR (@ATL, CHC), Jake WoodfordNR (@SFG, @LAD)^
*Henry gets the first crack at filling MadBum’s worn-out old shoes. There is a slight chance Brandon Pfaadt (MLB Pipeline’s No. 53 prospect – No. 16 according to Fangraphs – ARI’s No. 3) takes the rotation spot once his pitching schedule lines up with the team’s. However, would Coors Field be the proper time for Pfaadt’s MLB debut? Henry made his debut last season, starting nine games (47 IP) and posting a 5.36 ERA (4.87 xERA, 4.97 xFIP). With low strikeout rates and high walk rates, I’d wait for Pfaadt’s call-up, as Henry is a younger version of Bumgarner. Ok, that’s a little harsh, but Henry is a fellow lefty, which provides the southpaw effect for an otherwise righty rotation. With Drey Jameson sent down, both Henry & Pfaadt could be in the rotation this weekend, depending on the latter’s call-up situation. For more, read this article. Nelson appears as 4/30’s probable pitcher.
^Woodford’s second start could instead be the return of Adam Wainwright86 (see IL Report). You weren’t starting Woody anyway. Waino is making one more rehab start before returning next weekend vs. DET #Smart
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 24 – 30
*Brayan Bello sent down to Triple-A Worcester on 4/24. Maybe I was too high on the kid. Looks like more time in the oven is required.
ICYMI 👀
And coming this week…
WORLD SERIES REMATCH!
Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros
Friday, April 28 – 8:10 PM ET
Aaron Nola vs. Framber Valdez
Apple TV+ 🤦🏼♂️
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
This just in…
Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers – 15-day IL, Sprained Left Ankle
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Gonsolin will likely start against the Pirates at PNC Park on 4/26, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
Sandy Alcantara, Marlins – DTD/SCRATCH, Mild Right Biceps Tendinitis
Alcantara is on track to start against the Braves on 4/26 after being scratched from his scheduled outing over the weekend. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald was the first to report his probable status. Sandy will still need to clear a few hurdles, namely his side session on 4/23 and bullpen session on 4/24. If all goes well, he should be back on the bump, hoping to repair his inflated 5.47 ERA against stiff competition in Atlanta. A sigh of relief, for now.
Kris Bryant, Rockies – DTD, Lower Back Pain
Bryant walked off grimacing after striking out on 4/22 and was lifted for pinch-hitter Elehuris Montero in the third inning. Rockies manager Bud Black said Bryant felt a sharp pain in his sacroiliac joint (the lower back/glute area) and described it as “a day-to-day thing” unrelated to Bryant’s previous back injury. This dude can not stay healthy. Update: Bryant was out of the lineup on 4/23.
Logan O’Hoppe, Angels – 10-day IL, Left Shoulder Torn Labrum (Retro 4/21)
O’Hoppe will need surgery for a torn labrum in his left shoulder – which is his non-throwing arm – Angels manager Phil Nevin said. The rookie catcher is expected to miss 4-6 months. Tragic! The injury happened on a swing too, which we are seeing way too often these days. Matt Thaiss and Chad Wallach are the next men up, with Max Stassi (hip) also on the IL.
Kenta Maeda, Twins – DTD, Lower Back Pain
After taking the comebacker earlier in the week, Maeda had a successful side season on 4/23 and is listed as the Twins’ probable starter on 4/26 vs. NYY. However, he will still need to clear his bullpen session on 4/24. If Maeda has to miss his next start or, worse yet, hit the IL, Tyler Mahle can move up to face the Yankees on normal rest. Furthermore, Pablo López can do the same for 4/27 vs. KCR, and Bailey Ober, who was called up for a spot start on 4/23, can stick around to pitch on 4/28. Fun!
Medical Updates…
- Tim Anderson, White Sox – Anderson (sprained left knee) is getting close to heading out on an injury rehab assignment after he had impressive batting practice sessions at Tropicana Field during Chicago’s weekend series against the Rays.
- Will Smith, Dodgers – Smith (concussion-like symptoms) had a “positive” day on 4/22, according to Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, but the star catcher is still not close to a return.
- Michael Harris II, Braves – Finally, some clarity around Harris (lower back soreness)! He was cleared to begin taking batting practice on the field. From all accounts, it went well, but Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution also reports Harris will likely need at least a week of rehab games. We should expect a return at the start of Week 6 in May. Travis d’Arnaud joined Harris, his first time on the field since his concussion.
- Tyler Glasnow, Rays – Glasnow (Grade 2 left oblique strain) will face hitters for two innings on 4/24 at the club’s extended spring complex in Sarasota, Fla., which would likely begin his Spring Training-type game progression.
- Adam Wainwright, Cardinals – Wainwright, who is rehabbing a groin strain and champing at the bit to begin his farewell season, made a successful rehab start on 4/18. It was a short outing – 3 IP, 59 PIT – but he came out of it healthy, striking out three and walking none on four hits and 2 ER. Next up is his second rehab start, which should come on 4/25, and the goal is 75 pitches. Waino could return to the Cards on 4/30, depending on how the second rehab goes. UPDATE: Waino is making one more rehab start before returning next weekend vs. DET #Smart
- Ranger Suárez, Phillies – Suárez (left forearm tenderness) threw all of his pitches in a sim game on 4/22. Most importantly, he felt good afterward. If all is well with him when he reports on Sunday, he will likely begin a rehab assignment. Oh, by the way, his sim game opponent was none other than Bryce Harper. After a follow-up appointment at the start of May, they’ll have a firm timetable and one that could be sooner than later!
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Kyle Bradish60, RH BAL (BOS, @DET; 12% rostered in Yahoo, 2% in ESPN, 61% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Bradish’s rostership is skyrocketing on Fantrax over the last seven days, and for good reason. His fastball was hit quite often in 2022, but he didn’t throw it much against Washington. Instead, he threw an effective curveball more often. Nats batters had an xBA of .192 against the pitch. His slider looked sharp, as well (.157 xBA). It was one start, and it was the Nats, but these xBAs mirror his season-long efforts last year. If he maintains the same pitch mix, I have zero fear for the BOS start. However, if he regresses to leaning on the fastball, there could be trouble (.300 xBA, .517 xSLG – 2022). Meanwhile, the DET start is tasty!
Honorable Mention: Johan Oviedo103, RH PIT (LAD, @WSH; 57% rostered in Yahoo, 29% in ESPN, 72% in Fantrax Dynasty) – I usually avoid B-level pitchers who are the hot thing. Feels like chasing. That is what we have with Oviedo. He’s given up two runs in his last 20.2 IP with 21 K and 4 BB. As a result, his rostership is up across the board. But if he is available in your league, I’d swoop him up with your last available spot. The Dodger start will begin the “coming-back-to-earth” party, but the Washington start is tasty. He’s not the pitcher he’s been so far in 2023, but it’s not a complete outlier. There is season-long value here.
After all, for 2022, Oviedo posted a 3.21 ERA (3.17 xERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA) in 56 innings between St. Louis and Pittsburgh. He’s been a different pitcher since becoming a swashbuckler. He throws his slider 17% more, his four-seamer 22% less, and has added a 96 mph sinker. His four-seamer has been tattooed to the tune of a .664 xSLG with a .322 xBA. Meanwhile, his slider has a .174 xBA, .240 xSLG and .222 xwOBA.
One-Start Pitcher & Ultra Sneaky: Joey LucchesiNR, LH NYM (WSH; 6% rostered in Yahoo, 2% in ESPN, 21% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Before you say it, I’ll say it for you. Yes, I am a homer. But not when it comes to fantasy sports, I swear! This recommendation is legit, as Lucchesi faces the weak Nationals lineup. He’s returning from Tommy John surgery and has looked excellent for Triple-A Syracuse, recording a 2.30 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP in 15.2 innings. He went seven-scoreless innings against the Giants on 4/21, striking out nine hitters on four hits and two walks.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!