In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
UPDATE: Due to 4/16 PPD of the SFG @ DET game – total botch job by MLB by the way – MIA shifts to 1 L / 5 R, giving Chisholm & Arraez more of a leg up on the week. Also as a result, NYM shift to 3 L / 4 R. In terms of DET’s opponents this week (CLE & BAL), their lefty/righty splits remain the same since DET’s rotation carries three left-handers.
On April 15th, the baseball community celebrated the 50th anniversary of the Jackie Robinson Foundation and the legend’s monumental effect on the game. Jackie Robinson Day has been a tradition held each year in MLB since 2004, and every celebration remains just as special. In a sport where we measure performance numerically, true bravery and courage have no measure.
NOTES: Ladies and gentlemen, we are in full swing of the fantasy baseball season. We begin to see stronger schedule divergency concerning number of games on the docket. Twelve teams play a week-high seven games, with 16 squads playing six. If you notice, only two American League teams play seven contests. This is a boon for our hitters in NL-only leagues. Also, we see two teams draw the first short ends of the stick with five games. We have a couple of road trips and a few homestands to maximize. This will be a fun week; let’s do it!
Five-Game Weeks: BAL, WSH
A Few Areas to Target
If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!
Patriots’ Day
The Red Sox’s annual Patriots’ Day game begins our week at 11:10 AM ET / 8:10 AM PT sharp(ish). It will be a fine pitching matchup between future star Brayan Bello and current star Shohei Ohtani. But we are interested in the hitting edges for the week. Boston plays seven games this week (LAA – 1, MIN – 3, @MIL – 3), which is already a boon for their hitters. Furthermore, they will face six of seven right-handed starters.
For a lineup that boasts a plethora of left-handed batters, the BoSox are prime for a big week. None more so than Masataka Yoshida, who has been struggling over his last 13 PAs and has a .216/.356/.324 slash line overall. Also, a bulky hamstring has been keeping him from the lineup, but he’s back out there on 4/16. His BABIP is .212, so we already know the struggles won’t last, plus he’s seeing the ball well with three walks on 4/8. Additionally, we see him handling LHP well to the tune of a .308/.438/.308 slash, which is right in line with his NPB numbers. If Yoshida can make the necessary adjustments, expect big things!
In addition to the Japanese outfielder, I like Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers and Triston Casas (46% rostered in Yahoo, 43% in ESPN, 90% in Fantrax Dynasty) this week! If Casas is unavailable in your league, you could eye up Raimel Tapia (1% rostered in Yahoo, <1% in ESPN, 8% in Fantrax Dynasty). Tapia has made the most of his limited playing, going 4-for-12 with 1 HR and a .968 OPS. He should see a majority of the starts this week with Adam Duvall on the IL due to a fractured wrist and set to miss significant time. On 4/12, we witnessed how the BoSox will handle their business against righties by starting Tapia against Taj Bradley. This will be a common occurrence, so get ahead of the pack!
I Love LA
Both the Angels and Dodgers have it going on this week! Let’s begin in Anaheim. Like Boston, the Halos benefit from Patriots’ Day, and then they play three in the Bronx followed by three at home vs. KCR. They project to face five of seven right-handed starters. Sho Time! Although, with a two-start week on tap (see below), Ohtani is best for pitching this week. If you can enjoy both, well, good for you, lol. Streamers can look toward Luis Rengifo (21% rostered in Yahoo, 3% in ESPN, 50% in Fantrax Dynasty; 2B/3B eligible, SS in some leagues). Rengifo has gotten off to a slow start this season, batting .182 through his first 52 PAs. However, he’s at least shown good plate discipline with a 13.5% BB-rate, and he should experience positive regression in BA with his .233 BABIP. It could begin this week.
As for the Trolley Dodgers, they play host to the Mets for three games before heading off to the Windy City for a rematch with the Cubbies. While both Dodger Stadium and Wrigley Field have favored the pitcher so far this young season, that can change in a flash based on each park’s history. Furthermore, LA will see five of seven right-handed starters: David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Max ScherzerDTD, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski, and Marcus Stroman. It’s important to note that Taillon and Smyly faced LAD last time out. Expect Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy to continue to ball. James Outman, who is slashing .279/.415/.628 with 3 HR, 10 RBI and 2 SB, is in a favorable spot as well. He is still available in 21% of Yahoo leagues, 41% of ESPN leagues and as few as 12% of Fantrax dynasty leagues.
But New York Is Still the Big Apple!
The Yankees (LAA – 3, TOR – 3) are one of the 16 squads playing six games this week, yet they hold a distinct advantage over the others. As you can see, all six come in a week-long homestand. While Yankee Stadium is currently 13th in overall Statcast Park Factors, the HR factor is an unworldly 227 (unsustainable but by far #1 and will remain in the upper echelon). We see lots of base hits, guys getting on base, and runs crossing the plate. Projected pitching matchups are evenly split at three per-handedness, so no differential there. However, with three LH starters, I expect Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu to continue to roll. The latter’s presence back into the lineup is a real shot in the arm. Also, how do you not like Anthony Volpe hitting leadoff?
Quick Hitters…
- Philadelphia Phillies (@CHW – 3, COL – 4) will face six of seven RH starters. Fire up Bryson Stott, Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh!
- San Francisco Giants (@MIA – 3, NYM – 4) hitters are a volume play, but there is no real lefty/righty platoon read with an estimate of 3 LH / 4 RH proj. opposing starters.
- San Diego Padres (ATL – 3, @ARI – 4) will face six of seven RH starters. Also, Trent Grisham has the best brush in the business, and Jake from Rake Farm (Cronenworth) is back in full force with two long flies on 4/15. Matt Carpenter (2% Yahoo/ESPN, 22% FTD) and Rougned Odor (<1% Yahoo/ESPN, 4% FTD) are streaming options.
- Arizona Diamondbacks (@STL – 3, SDP – 4) will also face six of seven RH starters. Love Corbin Carroll this week. Willson Contreras has a 20% caught-stealing rate (2-of-10), while Austin Nola has a 13% rate (1-of-8). Josh Rojas (53% Yahoo/25% ESPN/91% FTD) atop the lineup is attractive, and Jake McCarthy (82% Yahoo/32% ESPN/91% FTD) could get going this week!
If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
The NL Central offers lots of opportunities to do some “cherry-picking.” The Cubs play seven games, including a three-game set with Oakland and their suspect pitching. Cincinnati also plays seven contests, and they too will get some tasty pitching matchups with a four-game set in Pittsburgh. At the beginning of the week, and before that four-game set, Colorado will welcome the same Pirates for three before heading to Philly for four games. The Rockies will face quality arms in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, but they also get Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez, Johan Oviedo (who has been smoke & mirrors lately), Matt Strahm and Bailey Falter. All of these spots can help the injured areas of your team, yet the best favorable matchup can be found within these series.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (@COL – 3, CIN – 4) begin their week with three games at Coors Field. While the known hitter’s paradise has “dropped” to fourth-highest overall Statcast Park Factor (see below), this is merely a small sample size effect, and the park is a known commodity. Kyle Freeland opens the series for Colorado, and he struggles mightily at home (career 4.67 home ERA; 3.72 road). José Ureña lines up for the second game of the series, and he struggles everywhere while allowing plenty of home runs (4.50 HR/9 in 2023; 1.21 career). Pirates’ bats would be even more desirable if that four-game set was at Great American Ball Park, but as you can see below, PNC Park has been favoring the hitter so far (except in HR). Still, the Reds have a team ERA of 4.66, which ranks just outside the bottom 10.
In terms of which Buccos bats to target, look no further than Pittsburgh’s forgotten son who has made his mighty return. Andrew McCutchen (24% rostered in Yahoo, 17% in ESPN, 62% in Fantrax Dynasty) is hitting .310 with two homers, three steals, and a .970 OPS through 14 games on the season. The 36-year-old OF/DH will play most days, with 56 plate appearances already on the young season, further turning back the clock. Speaking of which, he’s nearly halfway to his stolen base total from last season. The new rules help. Cutch will surely be in the lineup against Freeland as well as another lefty starter, Austin Gomber. McCutchen posted a strong .214 ISO against lefties last season and a massive .329 ISO and 1.027 OPS against them in the 2021 season.
In shallower leagues, also consider Ke’Bryan Hayes (56% rostered in Yahoo, 16% in ESPN, 86% in Fantrax Dynasty). It’s been a struggle out of the game, but this right-handed hitter is poised for a bounce-back. His career splits lean heavily towards LHP, even if the power hasn’t quite been there. However, he swiped 20 bags last season and 31 for his career, including nine with a southpaw on the mound. Hayes is getting every opportunity to break out of his early-season funk with 59 PAs in 14 games, but he’s still hitting just .182 with one homer (hit in last game) and two steals. However, he also sports a tiny .188 BABIP that can only improve from here.
Places to Avoid
At first glance, the Mets look to be in a favorable position with seven games (@LAD – 3, @SFG – 4). Although, playing East Coast hitters amid a 10-game West Coast trip is not the best strategy. And then we look at the opposition. The Dodgers have the fourth-best FIP at 3.52, while their 5.3% walk rate is best in baseball. Plus, dates with Dustin May and Clayton Kershaw scream blue balls. Next, it’s off to pitcher-friendly Oracle Park (Dodger Stadium has been playing down as well). While SFG’s team ERA is middle of the pack (4.51, 14th), their 7.6% walk rate ranks fifth-best. Unlike their time in Oakland, free passes will be few and far between. San Fran will throw a resurgent Anthony DeSclafani, newly extended Logan Webb and the Alexes (Wood & Cobb) out there in their series.
Brandon Nimmo has been in the top-20 overall for fantasy production so far this season It should be go-time, right? Not so fast… this is a week where he could struggle to produce. We discussed the walk rates for both LAD & SFG. Nimmo thrives off the free pass and getting on base (career 13.8% BB-rate, 22.6% in 2023). Meanwhile, Nimmo’s barrel rate is down, resulting in zero homers on the season. A lower on-base rate with weaker contact spells disaster. If you have a viable alternative to Nimmo, I would use it this week. Additionally, don’t expect a break-out week for Francisco Álvarez. Tomás Nido is getting the lion’s share of time behind the plate due to his defensive prowess. Couple this limitation (not getting DH ABs either) with the matchups, and it’s a no from me dawg.
Also Avoid…
- KCR (TEX – 3, @LAA – 3): Due to face Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Martín Pérez, Tyler Anderson, Reid Detmers and Shohei Ohtani.
- SEA (MIL – 3, STL – 3): Poor home park factors and only six games on the docket; pitching matchups are a mixed bag and evenly split – Corbin Burnes, Colin Rea, Eric Lauer, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty – 2 LH / 4 RH… shit, after listing the SPs, I kind of wanna play ’em! But I’m tempering my expectations.
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
**2023 Statistics**
*As of 4/15/23; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Corbin Burnes1 (@SEA, BOS) ⬅️ Unlike last week, Burnes should keep his two-step this time with five days’ rest between each start. Threw pen session on 4/21 and all clear for 4/23 start.
- Shohei Ohtani4 (@BOS, KCR)
- Jacob deGrom6 (@KCR, OAK?) ⬅️ DTD, Right Wrist Soreness
- Zack Wheeler12 (@CHW, COL)
- Spencer Strider14 (@SDP,
HOU) ⬅️ Atlanta chose to bring Max Fried9 (@SDP, HOU) back a day early to pitch series opener in San Diego, and he looked sharp in a decent workload for no rehab starts (5 IP, 79 PIT, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K). He should now get the second start. - Kevin Gausman19 (@HOU, @NYY) ⬅️ Another challenging duo of opponents; a clash with No. 7 Javier to begin the week!
- Cristian Javier20 (TOR, @ATL)
- Logan Webb23 (@MIA, NYM) ⬅️ Gains second start; see update below.
- Clayton Kershaw26 (NYM, @CHC)
- Dustin May29 (NYM, @CHC)
- Lance Lynn30 (PHI,
@TBR) ⬅️ Lucas Giolito34 gets the second start @TBR since both arms are an option from 4/18’s DH. Gio looks like his old self, while Lynn just looks old. Scott Merkin’s tweet below indicates the ChiSox are looking to get Lynn more rest. - Jesús Luzardo35 (SFG, @CLE)
- Nick Lodolo40 (TBR, @PIT)
- Sonny Gray41 (@BOS,
WSH) - Marcus Stroman42 (@OAK, LAD)
- Hunter Greene43 (TBR, @PIT)
- Jack Flaherty49 (ARI, @SEA)
Other Options: Chris Sale58 (MIN, @MIL), Merrill Kelly59 (@STL, SDP), Alex Cobb60 (@MIA, NYM), Hayden Wesneski66 (@OAK, LAD), David Peterson77 (@LAD, @SFG), Eduardo Rodriguez84 (CLE, @BAL), Brayan Bello90 (LAA, @MIL) POV SPECIAL, Hunter Gaddis93 (@DET, MIA) POV SPECIAL HM
Danger Zone: Tylor Megill94 (@LAD, @SFG), Clarke Schmidt95 (LAA, TOR), Drey Jameson115 (@STL, SDP)*, Alex Wood127 (@MIA, NYM), Rich Hill131 & Vince VelasquezNR (@COL, CIN), Kyle MullerNR (CHC, @TEX), Bailey FalterNR (@CHW, COL)*, Jordan LylesNR (TEX, @LAA), Kyle FreelandNR & José UreñaNR (PIT, @PHI), Chris FlexenNR (MIL, STL)
*Jameson will move up the ranks as he stretches out and does make for an interesting stream despite his Danger Zone status. Yet, it may be wiser to pull the trigger in future weeks. Update: Falter loses second start due to 4/17 PPD.
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR APRIL 17 – 23
PRIMETIME SHOWDOWN!
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros
Monday, April 17 – 8:10 PM ET
Kevin Gausman vs. Cristian Javier 👀
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
This just in…
Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees – 10-day IL, Hamstring Strain
It was only a matter of time. Stanton hits the injured list with a hamstring strain, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told MLB Network Radio on 4/16. Stanton, who left the Yankee game on 4/15 for a pinch-runner immediately after stroking a two-run double off the wall, was off to a strong start to the 2023 season, hitting .269 with four home runs and 11 RBIs in 13 games. As a result, Oswaldo Cabrera, Aaron Hicks and Franchy Cordero will get more run.
Will Smith, Dodgers – 7-day IL, Concussion
Smith has missed the last three games with an undisclosed illness. After undergoing more testing, it was determined Smith is dealing with a concussion. Austin Barnes will see the starts behind the plate while Smith is out.
Max Scherzer, Mets – DTD, Lingering Right Side/Back Soreness
Mets manager Buck Showalter announced after the game on 4/15 that Jose Butto would start on 4/16 in place of Max. The 38-year-old pitcher is being pushed to 4/19 due to “lingering soreness.” He said Max is fine and could have pitched. But Mets wanted to push all of their starters anyway due to a busy schedule, and this is an opportunity to keep him fresh. If New York goes along with this plan and Max is indeed ok, Kodai Senga would then travel to San Francisco instead of facing the Dodgers. Regarding, this all seems like a non-issue inflated by the media. After all, he underwent an MRI as a precaution but expects to make his next start in Los Angeles. But in 2023 baseball, who knows?!?
Jeffrey Springs, Rays – DTD (IL Bound), Left Arm Ulnar Neuritis
An IL stint is for sure, as he’s expected to miss a minimum of two months and could require season ending surgery. “It’s very fair to say that he’s gonna miss some time,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said. Springs exited his last start on 4/13 and was later diagnosed with left arm ulnar neuritis. Taj Bradley is likely to be recalled to fill Springs’ spot in the rotation (see Pov Special below).
Jon Gray, Rangers – DTD, Right Forearm
Gray was removed with a right forearm bruise after being hit by a 109.3 mph line drive by the Astros’ Yainer Diaz. Gray had thrown two scoreless innings before being hit by Diaz’s liner, which was a shame. After the game, Gray told reporters that he does not expect to miss his next turn in the rotation, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Yoán Moncada, White Sox – 10-day IL, Lower Back Soreness (Retro 4/11)
After getting back Eloy Jiménez, the Pale Hose had to place Moncada on the shelf. Is this a flashback to 2022? White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said that he’s hopeful Moncada can return sometime during the team’s April 21-26 road trip, James Fegan of The Athletic reports.
Medical Update…
- Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (sub-scapular strain) still doesn’t have a timetable for a return from his shoulder injury. However, it will definitely be longer than the minimum two weeks on the shelf. Multiple evaluations of an MRI scan yielded a firmer diagnosis for Woodruff. He will be evaluated by team physicians in Milwaukee at the end of next week.
- Kyle Bradish, Orioles (foot contusion) made a successful rehab start on 4/14 for Double-A Bowie (5 IP, 3 H, 4 R (3 ER), 1 BB, 5 K, 83 PIT). He is available for activation on 4/19, which lines up with BAL’s rotation opening. However, Tyler Wells would be available to pitch that day on normal rest if the club wants to give Bradish a couple of extra days and pitch him on 4/21 vs. DET.
- Zach Eflin, Rays (lower-back tightness) is likely to return on 4/23 vs. CHW.
- Michael Harris II, Braves (lower back strain) will not be activated from the IL when first eligible on 4/17. The center fielder had not been cleared to begin swinging as of 4/15 but is expected to “ramp up” his rehab process within the next few days.
- Some news on Triston McKenzie, Guardians (right teres major strain). He began a throwing program on 4/14, throwing from 60 feet and reporting no issues. Manager Terry Francona said he was happy with the progress of the right-hander. McK is eligible to return from the 60-day injured list on 5/29.
- Let’s try this again… after getting a cortisone shot from taking a fall, the unluckiest pitcher on the planet, Joe Musgrove – SDP, threw a successful bullpen session on 4/14 and will take the hill for a rehab start with Single-A Lake Elsinore on 4/16, according to Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. As long as there are no setbacks, his next start will be with the Padres.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Brayan Bello90, RH BOS (LAA, @MIL; 15% rostered in Yahoo, 4% in ESPN, 67% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Bello (forearm) will start on Patriots’ Day in the series finale against the Angels, according to Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. Bello had a fine debut last season. Despite registering a 4.71 ERA, his xERA was a cool 3.80. Furthermore, he posted a 2.94 FIP, 3.80 xFIP and 4.07 SIERA in 57.1 IP. His MLB ERA is bound to improve, and it can start this week with two adequate matchups. Throughout his MiLB career, Bello has a 3.53 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 458 strikeouts in 382.1 innings across all levels. He’s been over 95 IP every year since 2019 (minus 2020 Alternate Site work). So, he could offer season-long appeal for your team.
Honorable Mention: Hunter Gaddis93, RH, CLE (@DET, MIA; 2% rostered in Yahoo, 1% in ESPN, 23% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Gaddis is coming off a shelling by the Yankees, but they do that. He threw a gem on 4/5 against the A’s – six innings of one-hit baseball with two walks and four punchies. Oakland stinks like salami found left on the counter, but these matchups are not much better. On the young season, DET has the third-worst batting average vs. RHP, and MIA is the 11th worst. Furthermore, DET has the third-worst OPS and wOBA vs. RHP along with the sixth-worst ISO. Correspondingly, MIA ranks 25th in OPS, 24th in wOBA and 17th in ISO. In 2022, down on the farm, Gaddis posted 32.7% & 30.9% K-rates in 76.1 Double-A innings and 45 Triple-A innings, respectively. Save Gaddis for your 14-16 teamers, but he could pay off handsomely.
One-Start Pitcher: Taj Bradley141, RH TBR (@CIN; 25% rostered in Yahoo, 10% in ESPN, 70% in Fantrax Dynasty) – We touched upon Bradley in our IL report, but time to expand. His rostership should skyrocket once he is recalled to replace Jeffrey Springs. Bradley is already up 13.6% this week in Fantrax Dynasty after his MLB debut vs. BOS (5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 8 K, W). Most noteworthy, his Called Strike Plus Whiff Rate (CSW) was 34.6%! He’s the top prospect in Tampa Bay’s system and the 18th overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline’s 2023 rankings.
Ultra Sneaky: Brandon PfaadtNR, RH, ARI (@STL; 10% rostered in Yahoo, 2% in ESPN, 66% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Madison Bumgarner is washed. You know it. He knows it. Even Arizona knows it, but he is owed $74M over the next two years, which keeps him in the rotation. I’ve written how mechanical issues are his culprit. My hope was he could fix them, but it’s just not happening. However, he’s pitching through some sort of physical ailment, which could be used as an excuse to exit, stage left to the IL. UDPATE: MADBUM cleared to start 4/19 🤦🏼♂️
If this happens, Pfaadt is in-line to make his much anticipated MLB debut. While MadBum was slumming it on 4/14, Pfaadt was tossing five innings of two-run ball on six hits and five strikeouts for Triple-A Reno. He would be a logical replacement. Minus their trip to Coors Field, STL’s offense has been scuffling. The No. 16-ranked prospect in MLB (Fangraphs) could capture his first MLB win after claiming his first win of the season for Reno.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!